"Screwing Up" the Tension in Korea

The US and its allies, Japan and South Korea, had publicly discussed "preemptive attacks" on North Korea, whether "de-capitation attacks" or "pre-emptive strikes on missile bases." So the North Korean launch of two ICBMs in November represented an expected continuation of the North Korean response. The discussion of this essentially US strategy by the right in South Korea has been ongoing for some time. South Korean president Yoon Seok-yeol appears to have adopted it. Prime Minister Kishida has promoted a "counterstrike" policy which is essentially the same thing but the wording is different because the notion of pre-emptive strike is politically unpalatable in Japan.

The return of so called strategic US assets to the South Korean region, featured B1-b strategic bombers, in operation Vigilant Storm in late October and early November and fighter aircraft from both South Korea and the US in major air operations involving hundreds of aircraft. Earlier in September, aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its associated strike group visited Pusan, South Korea ahead of joint exercises. On Sep 8 Kim Jong-un adopted a policy of an automatic nuclear response, if the leadership of North Korea was subjected to an attack. This announcement by the North's leader was preceded by US-ROK joint military exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield, described as the largest in five years in an August 29th report of Stars and Stripes. The ROK air force exercised jointly with two B-52s and 4 F-22s on December 20. The return of US strategic assets including strategic bombers and the USS Ronald Reagan to South Korea after a five year hiatus are a violation of the understandings reached at the Singapore Summit. Likewise North Korean, ICBM testing is a violation of that summit agreement as well. North Korean ballistic missile tests and nuclear tests are generally proscribed by UN resolutions 1874 (12 June 2009) and 2387 (22 December 2017).

North Korea regards the return of large joint US-ROK military exercises as a threat and preparation for war. It has launched an unprecedented number of ballistic missile tests so far this year. Three of these launches were ICBMs, one in March, and two in November. The earlier November ICBM launch was considered a failure. The North Korean missile program is regarded as cost effective compensation by North Korea to offset its inferiority in conventional military capability.

A South Korean defector group launched helium balloons across the DMZ on July 6 and October 2, despite the new law passed during the Moon Jae-in administration prohibiting such activities. The Moon administration was criticized for curtailing "free speech," by conservatives, including Yoon Seok-yeol supporters and VOA Korea. The criticism is absurd as pointed out in prior posts. No one has the right to shout fire in a theater or provoke the North Korean or UNC guards at the Joint Security Area. No one has the right to fly things over the DMZ or its continuation, the Northern Limit Line (NLL) into the East or West Seas. As part of the military agreements between North and South Korea, loudspeaker propaganda from the North had stopped as well. The North Koreans felt that not only were the prohibited balloon flights regime change propaganda, but that they also represented a biological threat (covid-19). Ironically, at least one expert commentator has noted that the five un-intercepted drone flights this week from North Korea over the DMZ into South Korean airspace potentially represented a" weapons of mass destruction" threat, in addition to their apparent mission of reconnaissance, and harassment.

The Unification Ministry had requested the defector group to stop their balloon activities before the October 2 event. This is somewhat ironic considering the minister's "free speech" position expressed before the Yoon Seok-yeol administration took office.

On October 4, a North Korean intermediate range ballistic missile was fired into space over Japan and landed in the Northern Pacific. The South responded with a Hyunmoo II ballistic missle firing, which failed catastrophically and frightened the public near the scene of the accident. The US and South Korea each fired two ATACSMs; one of the South Korean launches failed.

When three North Korean missiles were fired across the MDL into the East Sea on November 2, this was a violation of the military agreement between North and South Korea which established buffer zones where military exercises are prohibited. A KF-16 intended to respond by firing 2 SPICE missiles, after the first firing, the aircraft returned to base, for low fuel reasons. A sortie by an F-15K, planned to launch two SLAM ER missiles. Only one missile fired, the other missile was defective. A second F-15K in reserve fired the second SLAM missile.

So there has been a considerable escalation in military and propaganda activities in the tense military zones in and around the Korean peninsula, which has led up to the December 26 launch of 5 (unmanned) drones by North Korea into South Korean territory. A KA-1 light attack aircraft taking off from Wonju as part of the ineffective South Korean military response crashed with both crew members surviving. As the drones meandered around the area south of the DMZ near Paju and Gangwha island, and one ventured over northern Seoul, the public was left uniformed about what was happening for several hours resulting in much social media speculation as to whether the south was under attack. This also occurred in the immediate aftermath of the Hyunmoo II failure and explosion in early October.

As late as November 10, the Unification Minister submitted a statement to the South Korean Supreme Constitutional Court that restrictions on balloon flights were a violation of "free speech."

The unification minister also stressed that terms in the law, including those banning any acts at border areas that could trigger "harm to the lives and bodies of people and grave dangers," is so vaguely worded that the law could be enforced "arbitrarily."

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221110004400315

Earlier in late September a spokesperson for the ministry had asked the defector groups to refrain from such acts:

SEOUL, Sept. 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry urged local activist groups to refrain from sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border amid lingering concerns that such a campaign could lead to the escalation of tensions on the peninsula.

The ministry also made clear Seoul will take a "strong and stern" measure in case Pyongyang carries out its threat of retaliatory action against those who seek to spread those leaflets, usually using large-scale balloons.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220923003951325


During the Hoguk training exercise, South Korea conducted artillery exercises near Paju, and the US fired tactical missiles in Cheoran county, also close to the DMZ. If not violations of the Sep 2018 military agreement between North and South Korea, they violated the spirit of the agreement, and were part of a pattern of escalatory military moves by North and South Korea and and the United States. S.Korea begins major Hoguk field training exercise amid N.Korea’s saber-rattling, Oct. 17 Korea Herald, https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20221017000637

South Korean First Lady's Audrey Hepburn pose

Kim Gon-hee wife of South Korea's President Yoon Seok-yeol, poses in Cambodia, Audrey Hepburn style as a woman with compassion. This staged photo shoot, no doubt, was arranged in a fruitless attempt to reverse her unpopularity.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 11.14.22)

Notice she isn't wearing her jewelry for the occasion valued at tens of thousands of dollars.

Kim is allegedly a con artist and vindictive person according to her critics. It is alleged she worked as hostess at the Volcano nightclub at the former Renaissance Ramada years ago. The Volcano was frequented by Seocho's powerful prosecutors including Yoon Seok-yeol. Critics also allege, she changed her name, and used her relationships with prosecutors to help her mother escape conviction in various fraudulent business deals. Kim has changed her identity once, and has also been accused of plagiarism and falsifying her academic resume.  After Yoon was elected his mother in law's conviction and attendant prison sentence in a medicare fraud type scheme worth millions was reversed on appeal.

Allegedly, more recently, Kim and her husband have steered no bid contracts related to her husband's unprecedented move of the presidential office (into the former Ministry of Defense Building, and the associated takeover of the former Foreign Ministry official residence), to friends and cronies. Total cost of the unnecessary move of the president's offices out of the Blue House has been estimated by one legislator at approximately a trillion won, at a time of economic hardship in South Korea. The move also resulted in an extraordinary security burden being placed on the Yongsan-gu police, which directly led to public safety lapses and the unprecedented Itaewon (crowd crush) disaster on the Saturday night before Halloween due to inadequate police presence.

This is just one of Kim's prior Jacqueline Kennedy style outfits:

(Source- Sisain Today 9.14.22)

Yoon was once asked how he as a public employee had managed to accumulate a net worth in excess of ten million dollars. He responded, "it's my wife's, not mine."


Addendum (11.15) More- Saint Kim Gon-hee

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 11.15.22)


Responsibility for the Itaewon disaster is clearly the result of two moves by the Yoon administration. The first moving the official Presidential Office to Yongsan, and placing the National Police organization under the control of the Minister of Interior and Public Safety, removing its independence from political control, and placing it directly under the so called Yoon clique. Keep in mind that this was done by Yoon without National Assembly authorization although the National Police Command Structure was designed by statute to be an independent agency. Second, on the day of the incident, the bulk of Yongsan's police were assigned to watch a demonstration against the administration and therefore were not assigned later to monitor larger crowds (over 100,000) in the tight streets and alleys of the popular Itaewon district. Yet Yoon and the Minister of Interior place the blame on local officials even though there were 4 hours of prior warnings of what was happening in Yongsan and local police did ask higher authorities to dispatch more police support in a timely manner. But could the leader of an incompetent and authoritarian government be married to a saint? Yes according to the public relations handlers at the presidential office who arranged for another "mise en scene" of the first lady in Cambodia and released it to conservative media in South Korea.

Yoon Seok-yeol's emerging police state

Why is Yoon so unpopular? and other random observations

I’ve been watching/reading South Korean independent media reports of the escapades and history of Yoon, his wife and mother in law for more than two years. Yoon has been disciplined twice for unprofessional conduct as a prosecutor. The wife, Kim Gon-hee was the only suspect in insider trading scandal, that didn’t get jailed and sent to prison. Likewise mother in law Choi had her conviction reversed for what Americans would call institutional Medicare fraud. The conservative press in South Korea has avoided discussing Yoon family reports negative in nature. The latest episode involves the alleged plagiarism in wife’s masters and doctoral theses in addition to her falsified resume.

As the prosecutor general, Yoon was disciplined professionally before the presidential campaign for compromising the political impartiality of his office, for unlawfully investigating judges and interfering in a case in which he had a personal conflict of interest. He was suspended for two months, and left the office. On appeal of an injunction Yoon obtained against the decision the Supreme Court later found Yoon was wrong and could have been dismissed for his unethical behavior as a prosecutor.

Yoon’s politics are known as “revenge politics.” He and his crony, the current Justice Minister Han Dong-hun politicized the prosecutors offices. They not only control all the prosecutors offices in South Korea, but they have changed the administration of the National Police Agency in a manner similar to that of the prior Chun Doo-hwan dictatorship without legislative authority. They have a track record of investigating and/or prosecuting political opponents and critics. They have basically nullified the prosecution reform laws prompted by Yoon’s actions by taking over the national police. Yoon’s office was the mover behind the harassment of Moon Jae-in at his retirement residence, investigations of Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and his family, etc. Yoon and his wife are petty, vindictive, and incompetent. This has become plainly apparent and his domestic support has evaporated. The fact that Yoon whimsically changed the location of the presidential office, has been unavailable during a pressing national security incident and natural disaster, and has an obvious drinking habit doesn’t help.

(Source-열린공감TV youtube 5.25) The hands of his escorts which appear to be steadying President Yoon on his feet are visible. Their faces are blurred out for privacy and/or security reasons. Typically, identity of non-public figures are protected on Korean media for privacy reasons. Witnessess said Yoon's party ran up a bill of almost 4000 dollars, which represented a 50percent discount at Yoon's favorite five star bar and restaurant "because he's a regular customer."

Yoon Seok-yeol's incompetence for presidential duties exceeds that of Park Geun-hye. He thinks he can run the national disaster command post from his living room couch in his private apartment in Seocho. He left the office just as the flood warning for Seoul districts and other areas was announced at five pm, with predictions a major flood disaster was likely. His staff did nothing for four and a half hours issuing an "orange alert" at 9:30 pm August 8. The third stage of disaster preparations (condition red) wasn't implemented until 1:00 am the following day, Aug. 9, when major flooding, property damage, etc. in the region had already been confirmed at 9:26 pm. Yoon is said to have returned to the office at 11:26 pm. It is likely that the inept performance of Yoon and his staff was the result of reluctance to call his majesty back to the national command center after he had left for the day. Yoon's movements between his Seocho apartment and the presidential office require extensive security and traffic diversions and the mobilization of his security team and police. Why didn't he just move into the Blue House where the real national command center was located like the other presidents before him?

Corruption of South Korean educational institutions reaches new levels as Kookmin University declares plagiarism in Kim Gon-hee's academic theses unproven. The "revenge politics" of Yoon Seok-yeol and his wife, have officials private and public fearful of prosecution against themselves or their family members should they paint any of the first family's questionable past in a poor light. The University declined to reveal the record of its review proceedings to any media or critics of its findings. Alumnae and academic groups from Kookmin University and Sukmyung Women's University where Kim did her masters thesis, demonstrated against the Kookmin decision. They demanded a review by Sookmeong University of her masters thesis which also appears to be largely plagiarized from a translation of a book about the artist Paul Klee. Passages from the two theses are compared to the works from which plagiarized paragraphs and sentences were taken without quotations, footnotes or other attribution, have been broadcast on opposition news programs on the internet. One professor declared that it was "100 pecent certain that Kim's work was plagiarized. " Consequently, the credibility and approval of the Yoon administration reaches new lows in the most recent polls as he returns from his vacation after less than three month in office.

VOA's Kim Yeong-kyo interviews Mitchell Reiss and Mark Fitzpatrick on Taiwan tensions, the Pelosi visit to South Korea, and South Korean relations with China: Kim announced it was her last broadcast. The program is in English, ignore the first two minutes of programming hype in Korean. I was particularly interested in the program starting about the 15 minute mark after which the US analysts indicate their dissatisfaction with the Yoon failure to meet with Pelosi. Whether by self indulgence or on his foreign minister's advice, it's probably the first thing Yoon has done right, although he is being panned in the dominant conservative media in South Korea and also by the opposition media. This is probably the best interview session I've seen by this host. I think the Americans were perplexed by Yoon's move. Washington Talk is a weekly VOA program.
VOA 워싱턴
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VTguWAbs1E

There are some ironic aspects to Pelosi's visit to South Korea. First there was no one to meet her at the airport, no protocol, nothing apparently. This is similar in nature to Yoon's arrival with his wife Kim Gon-hee at Madrid for the NATO meeting. Then when it came to meeting with Pelosi, first the presidential office said that it wouldn't be possible with Yoon's "schedule." This is similar to the treatment Yoon got from some European leaders at the summit. Then of course there was the Biden "no look handshake" while Yoon stood grinning stupidly in embarrassment. One domestic critic noticed that this sort of reprisal is characteristic of Yoon's wife, who never fails to note a slight, or get even whenever the opportunity arises.

So the speculation is that the first lady, one whom Yoon claimed during the campaign "wasn't interested in politics," is actually the advisor running the show. While one Yoon advisor said that efforts were being made to harmonize Yoon's schedule so he could meet with Pelosi it wasn't meant to be. The final statement in the afternoon said there would be no meeting.

While Yoon was avoiding Pelosi, he was pictured doing a mukbang type meal with some young men, perhaps an effort to mend his his image with the young male electorate after stabbing young party leader Lee Jun-seok in the back.

South Korea's THAAD missile dispute with China- Yoon's self inflicted damage

According to an interview with a South Korean political analyst who has studied the THAAD issue, Kim Jong-tae, ( "저런 스투피드들이 외교를 하니…" 김종대 ) Yoon Seok-yeol, for campaign purposes, simply adopted a deviation from bi-partisan consensus regarding THAAD when he sought to reject the Moon Jae-in administration's "three nos policy." Yoon initially indicated his intention to deploy more THAAD batteries in a facebook post during South Korea's presidential election campaign. This was a part of Yoon's red baiting policy to paint then outgoing President Moon Jae-in as an appeaser to communists. Yoon has no idea what he is doing. Former president Park Geun-hye, who had consented to the deployment of THAAD batteries in South Korea prior to Moon's administration, had no idea what she was doing either, she was impeached, in part, for her incompetence, and neglect of her office. The Moon administration expended a great diplomatic effort to resolve the issue with China which had resulted in serious damage to South Korean Chinese relations and the South Korean economy. Why raise the dispute again? THAAD doesn't protect South Korea from North Korean missiles. Hankyoreh submits that this is a new development based on relatively recent observations of North Korean missile testing. It likely never afforded protection against North Korea's shorter range missiles. Moreover, South Korea has no control over how US ABM systems are used. According to the analyst, they are under the control of the US Indo-Pacific Command, which in itself, is an erosion of South Korean sovereignty. Yoon thought he could gain legitimacy simply by blind adherence to US initiatives. Public support for the Yoon administration is remarkably low at this point. The South Korean military doesn't support this, despite the US analysts who assert otherwise. According to Kim Jong-tae, South Korea's military want their own missile systems, under their own control. Control of Combined Forces Command during wartime is another political goal of the South Korean defense establishment, which the US has been stalling for years.

Yoon can talk tough about China but there is little inclination inside South Korea to repeat the earlier THAAD crisis in relations with China that Moon Jae-in's three nos policy resolved in October 2017. On VOA's Washington Talk program, US "experts" complained South Korea had been giving Taiwan the "cold shoulder." Why should South Korea participate in a dispute which others have unwisely precipitated? Any repetition of the economic impact similar to that which accompanied the prior THAAD dispute with Beijing is not desired by sane South Koreans. After the presidential office issued a recent statement to the press saying that THAAD operations in Seongju would be "normalized," they called upon the press to change the statement to "the American base in Seongju will be normalized," meaning that there would be permanent improvements on the facility for the US troops there, a statement only somewhat less incendiary. The presidential office didn't want China to misunderstand the statement as some direct confrontation. Further tangible and public South Korea official repudiation of the three nos policy will likely meet with a far more serious and lengthly economic impact than the 2017 episode. In addition to the impact on trade figures and corporate revenues, there would be an equally serious opportunity cost in terms of future economic development with China that would be permanently lost. No one is going to compensate South Korea for such losses undertaken to please other foreign interests.


[News analysis] Why China is so wary of S. Korea's THAAD anti-missile system
Posted on : Aug.12,2022 17:21 KST Modified on : Aug.12,2022 17:21 KST
https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/1054570.html

[박정호의 핫스팟] "저런 스투피드들이 외교를 하니…" 김종대 "'사드 상처' 왜 헤집나, 선무당 사람잡나"
OhMyNews Hotspot 8.14 youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrCE5gfmoz0

VOA [워싱턴 톡] “중국 ‘3불 요구’...북중러 협력 가속화”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G7THUiX7E8&t=76s

One More Time

The US unilaterally abandoned the nuclear negotiations at the Hanoi summit where the negotiating team officially adopted the "one bundle" approach to denuclearization in North Korea. This is also known as the all or nothing approach, and the "Libyan approach." North Korea didn't need any more examples of US unwillingness to negotiate. The national security sector of the US economy, and the associated think tanks, academic endowments, and their spokesmen in the media, know that any success or rapprochement with North Korea jeopardizes the US alliance with Japan, which contrary to their public statements is adamantly opposed to negotiations with North Korea that are anything short of a total surrender. Therefore, no intermediate "step by step" process that relies on reciprocity and trust building among the parties can be allowed. Russia, China, South Korea, and North Korea, all favored the step by step approach.

The US military complex in northeast Asia has no raison d'etre without the ongoing 70 year conflict with North Korea. Proposals for negotiations with North Korea are just not taken seriously in the US. Claims that the US is open to negotiations with no conditions are just posturing for public relations purposes. Efforts by South Korea's Unification Ministry were vilified in US media during the entire Moon Jae-in administration while they were threatened with sanctions and told to get in "lock step" with the US and Japan which have zero consideration for Korean national aspirations. Regardless of the improvidence of the recent North Korea ICBM launch, the recent US-Japanese carrier strike force operating in the East Sea/ Sea of Japan merely cements North Korean perception of the hostile intent of both nations toward them. It's the same old gunboat diplomacy from both countries during the imperialist era of the 19th Century that they know so well after it culminated in two million or more deaths in Korea during the Korean conflict, and a brutal and oppressive Japanese occupation long before that.

Koreans didn't need Ukraine to remind them of anything. Japan wants to erase its past history of crimes against humanity during the Pacific War. The US ignores any Korean history before June 25, 1950, and its saturation bombing campaigns thereafter that destroyed virtually everything in North Korea. US diplomats ask stupidly "why can't they get over it?" Koreans will never forget.

University "clears First Lady"*

Corruption of South Korean educational institutions reached new levels as Kookmin University declared plagiarism in Kim Gon-hee's academic theses unproven. The "revenge politics" of Yoon Seok-yeol and his wife, have officials private and public fearful of prosecution against themselves or their family members should they paint any of the first family's questionable past in a poor light. The University declined to reveal the record of its review proceedings to any media or critics of its findings. Alumnae from Kookmin University and Sukmyung Women's University where Kim did her masters thesis, demonstrated against the Kookmin decision. They demanded a review by Sookmeong University of her masters thesis which also appears to be largely plagiarized from a translation of a book about the artist Paul Klee. Passages from the two theses are compared to the works from which plagiarized paragraphs and sentences were taken without quotations, footnotes or other attribution, have been broadcast on opposition news programs on the internet. One professor declared that it was "100 pecent certain that Kim's work was plagiarized. " Consequently, the credibility and approval of the Yoon administration reaches new lows in the most recent polls as he returns from his vacation.

*See- University clears first lady of academic misconduct
20:40 August 01, 2022 Yonhap News Agency
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220801011300315

Martyanov's analysis on Two Major Theater Wars*

Generally I'm a fan of Andrei Martyanov's analysis. Agree with his assessment of the "leadership" of the government in DC. In his presentation, I only take exception to his dismissive analysis of the Chinese military. I think it's somewhat ethnocentric. It's the PLAN which is a bit different from the western concept of navy. That orientation implies the historical context of its role and development. The whole concept of struggle to offset the historical forces of imperialism in CCP doctrine puts this contest over Taiwan in a longer term perspective which frankly Americans don't understand. They dismiss the record of imperial aggression against China as ideological cant. It wouldn't be the first time the US and it allies blundered into another Asian debacle.

I follow others who are experts on the Chinese armed forces, and while they admit there are some weak points in the PLAN relative to the US Navy, it is the US armed forces who are not prepared to fight China over Taiwan. I don't think that either side wants war. Nevertheless, given the humiliating history of gunboat diplomacy in East Asia, China could be easily provoked to war over Taiwan. In that event, Chinese commitment would be higher than that of the US, whose policy views on East Asia are based more on custom and past practice than reality. It's not surprising that Martyanov also has this blind spot. After the Russian revolution, Russia saw itself almost in a big brother role to emerging Chinese military organization.

Other experts who acknowledge certain US advantages also recognize the US disadvantages. The Chinese will quickly compensate for any weaknesses and bring their strengths to bear to overcome them. Any conflict that takes place in the Chinees littoral around Taiwan or elsewhere in close proximity to China allows it to respond in a way that would gravely damage US and allied forces and resources. (For this reason I fear the US would entertain use of nuclear weapons sooner or later to "end the conflict" as it has in the past ).

Former Admiral Bill Owens has said there is no military solution to Taiwan. Other experts say sooner or later the US would likely be defeated in a conflict over Taiwan, or at a minimum sustain serious military losses. Chinese strategic depth, resourcefulness, and organizational skills should not be treated dismissively so close to its shores. Yes, the Chinese PLAN is not yet optimally ready. Yet it has enough resources and military assets to cause widespread damage in the theater which will shock Americans out of their China fantasy. The outcome of any such conflict cannot be easily foretold.

*Andrei Martyanov - Weekend Improv, youtube 8.6;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgJ8Q9RTmzM&t=541s

Deja vu- Decapitation Strategy

The "preemptive attack/decapitation scenario" will be played out during the summer US-ROK CFC summer military exercises according to an article in the Daily Beast, US to Enrage Kim Jong-un with Assassination Dry Run.*

For the first time in years, joint exercises between the U.S. and South Korea this month will culminate in a trial run of decapitating the North Korean leadership.

According to David Maxwell, retired Special Forces Colonel, "If you get the head of the military forces (which is Kim Jong-un) theoretically you gut (sic) the head of the snake."

Several questions arise in connection with the preemptive attack scenario. Namely, how do US forces ascertain the location of Kim Jong Un? Second how do they move into position without being detected crossing the maritime northern limit lines and the extended buffer zones around them? Third how do they succeed in obtaining permission from South Korean political and military leadership to carry out such a risky attack? Fourth, how do they avoid the risk of a nuclear retaliation against US targets in South Korea and the region? How do they avoid the risk of a conventional retaliation against urban areas such as Seoul? Fifth, what preparations have they made for a Chinese military intervention when their security interests inside North Korea are jeopardized? It should be noted that even right wing experts on the situation in North Korea, such a Victor Cha, and Thae Yong-ho, have warned against preemptive military attack on North Korea as a means to resolve the denuclearization stalemate in the past.

It's quite likely that a target of the new "tactical" nuclear warhead on the submarine launched ballistic missile is North Korea. The weapon appears to be specifically designed to destroy a deeply hardened target in a tactical environment. The US conventional military tactic of “decapitation” of North Korean leadership has been discussed openly in South Korean media in recent years. It never seemed practical, a special operations tactic to resolve a strategic problem.

In any case, if one were to consider the response from North Korea due to a “decapitation” attack with a small yield weapon like the W-76-2, let’s assume it succeeds with the precision and accuracy the new weapons are believed to have. Then in the aftermath of such an attack there remains a nuclear armed North Korea with unknown military commanders in unknown bunkers deciding what the response, if any, should be. Perhaps following US game theory they would decline to escalate the nuclear conflict. Or perhaps they wouldn’t. On the other hand, if the location of the bunker, or Kim Jong-un, was not precisely ascertained, and consequently the chairman or his successor survived, even for only for a brief time, a question arises about what would happen at that point. If one considers the desperation of the moment, the uncertainty, the confusion, and the likelihood of total destruction at the hands of the US military's vastly superior nuclear forces, what is the likely reaction of the North Korean leader? This thought arises, “Even though futilely suicidal, would he not respond in kind with nuclear armed ballistic missiles capable of reaching US bases in the region, where US and allied forces and command and control elements were plainly vulnerable?” Is this not in fact, exactly what would occur, given the ideological basis of North Korean communist doctrine and its self conscious role as the sacrificial victim of great power imperialism? Does the current deployment of US anti-ballistic missile forces in the region really give 100 percent assurance that this wouldn't be an effective response?

This is why Thae Yong-ho refers to the North Korean strategy as a "doomsday machine."

*US to Enrage Kim Jong-un with Assassination Dry Run, by Donald Kirk, The Daily Beast, Aug 3, 2022.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-to-enrage-kim-jong-un-with-assassination-dry-run

Notes on Kim Jong-un's Victory Day speech published at KCNA Watch.

I noticed a couple of things about Kim Jong-un's speech published at KCNA Watch. Most notably:

"I have already made it clear that we should be ready both for talks and confrontation and more fully for confrontation in particular in order to reliably guarantee the security of our state."

Criticism of the new Yoon Seok-yeol administration in South Korea, in Kim Jong-un's speech is not too far off the mark. How does one strike a nuclear North Korea preemptively with conventional forces? There is no conventional military solution to the unresolved war in North Korea. South Korea is conventionally superior. North Korea compensates for its relative weakness with new missile designs capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Yoon's openly provocative approach to the North is off the mark. Yet, North Korea has itself to blame because it conducted extensive missile testing during the South Korean presidential campaign earlier this year, lending credibility to Yoon's outdated and impractical cold war approach. This contributed to Yoon's election victory by a razor thin margin, substantially comprised of the overwhelming vote in favor of Yoon by the elderly (over 60 voters).

Another portion of the speech that directly deals with "nuclear weapons" threats:

They are brazen-faced enough to advocate "peace based on strength" and "security based on strength," and have put up a bold front, claiming that they would not hesitate in launching a "preemptive strike" to neutralize the war deterrent of our state.

At this very moment, south Korea is growing more frantic to develop weapons and strengthen its defence industry in a bid to recover, even a little, its military inferiority as compared with ours, and it is planning to bring in nuclear strategic weapons of the United States in large numbers and expanding war drills under various pretexts.

However, we should see that the more frequent vainglorious remarks and various hues of shameful conducts recently made by the south Korean authorities with regard to their security come from their inevitable sense of uneasiness that they have to live under the very nose of a nuclear state.

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1659013975-413691703/respected-comrade-kim-jong-un-makes-speech-at-celebration-of-69th-anniversary-of-great-victory-in-war/

It's interesting that the AP article on the Victory Day "speech" finds it necessary to refer back to an April speech to find more threatening remarks from the North Korean leader. I tend to agree with the analysis of this Korean Herald article:

No saber-rattling for N.Korea ‘Victory Day,’ but US repeats warning over nuke test
By Ji Da-gyum
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220727000697

North Korea held a politically charged event to mark its “Victory Day” in the Korean War, though its celebrations were notably absent of saber rattling and bellicose rhetoric from the country’s leader.

Last comment: This remark was made by academic expert quoted in the AP article:

.“Kim’s rhetoric inflates external threats to justify his militarily focused and economically struggling regime...”

Kim threatens to use nukes amid tensions with US, S. Korea
By HYUNG-JIN KIM
https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-seoul-south-korea-nuclear-weapons-e285be60ef404092fe3324748fa60707

The same can certainly be said for the struggling Yoon Seok-yeol administration in the south, which is remarkably absent of any meaningful policies to address the current economic hardships there. Yoon's policies thus far consist of red baiting, persecuting political rivals, constructing an authoritarian state, pursuing privatization of state assets, and blindly deferring to US and Japanese policy. He is widely regarded as an amateur statesmen. The prior administration's policy toward North Korea might be summarized as putting South Korean national interests first while strengthening its military and the alliance with the US. The Yoon faction's policy might summarized as a default mode opting for outdated cold war rhetoric and unilateral concessions to the US and Japan damaging to South Korean interests. As one former South Korean four star general put it, "Yoon is driving forward while only looking in the rear view mirror."

South Korean police resist return to the past

(Source- MBC News, 7.24) Police Chief Ryu Sam-yeong, Ulsan Central District Police Commander. organized a meeting of senior police officials to publicly oppose the Yoon Seok-yeol administration's move to subject the National Police Agency to direction, supervision, and management by the Ministry of Interior and Safety. This is a relationship that prevailed during the dictatorship period of South Korean governance and was eliminated by legislation in 1991 making the National Police Agency an independent non-political organization. Ryu said:

"Such a move is unacceptable. That's the gist of it. A return to the mistakes of the past, is clearly what this talk is about. During the prior era when the Command of the National Police was within to the Ministry of Interior, many democratic martyrs were sacrificed at the hands of police. Why was it like that? Because the police were subordinated to the political power of the Ministry."

"The establishment of a new police bureau doesn't act a restraint on police power, rather it is the opposite of restraint. Retraint must be democratic in nature. Now, It is the National Police Committee that operates as a check on the police institutionally. If that is insufficient, upgrade it, ensure its members are politically independent, realizing true contraint must be realized democratically. However, to remove this system of democratically accepted regulation of the police by the National Police Committee, is to impose ministerial control. This is far from the customary democratic practice."

Commanders and other ranking police officials who participated in the Police Commanders Meeting July 23 were swiftly subjected to disciplinary procedures by the Interior Ministry. Reportedly, 50 officers attended the meeting directly, and more online. Later, it was reported that hundreds of officers sent Mugunghwa floral wreaths in support of the meeting. Commander Ryu was informed he was removed from his post on the way home from the meeting and to clear his personal effects from his office. It was later clarified by the presidential office chief that Ryu faces expulsion from the police force.

The Minister of the Interior and Safety, Lee Sang-min, claimed Ryu had violated a prohibition on gathering an assembly of public employees but was unable to specificy the specific law violated. The officers met off duty and traveled at their own expense. He characterized Ryu's action as an unconstitutional coup d'etat. This was an interesting reversal as it is the change in government organization by executive fiat without legislation that is unconstitutional according to those opposed to the move by the presidential office. The minister was questioned at a legislative hearing if a meeting of attorneys (a reference to a meeting called by Yoon as prosecutor general to defy the authority of the Minister of Justice?) had been illegal. Lee Sang-min denied this. Then he was asked if private assemblies of prosecutors for meetings were prohibited. "That's different" was the response. On a police social media net an officer asked, "Is a meeting of the National Public Prosecutors Association illegal?".

Prosecution reform legislation passed during the previous session of the National Assembly removed the monopoly of investigative powers from the Public Prosecutors Offices and transferred those investigation powers to police agencies. The effort by the Yoon government to subject the National Police Agency to the control of the Ministry of Interior and Safety is regarded as an attack on the independence and political neutrality of police offices and a "Chu Doo-hwan like" effort to subject police nationally to a an oppressive political monopoly dominated by President Yoon's office.

Another meeting of lesser ranking supervisory police personnel in support of those higher ranking officers subject to review or discipline concerning the July 23 meeting is scheduuled for July 30.


"대기발령 오히려 잘됐다" 류삼영 총경 작심 인터뷰
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2WCWSk0xOY

Yoon's dose of reality

Don't think much of the Moon Jae-in weak on defense talking point. It's simply not true. The South Korean military budget grew substantially during the Moon administration and new weapon systems were produced including their own domestically produced fighter aircraft. Moon is currently more popular than president Yoon. Confusing diplomacy with weakness is the major fault of those who don't understand Korean politics. Yoon resorted to classic cold war tactics, red baiting the former administration and talking "tough" about other countries in Madrid. This done primarily as a means to avoid his total lack of a competent domestic policy. Foreseeably to all but Yoon and his "advisors," his approval rating went further into the dumpster. Almost two thirds of the South Korean public disapprove of the Yoon administration's performance thus far, setting a South Korean record for a South Korean administration so early in its term. Put another way, South Korean adults who disapprove of Yoon's governance outnumber those who approve roughly two to one. For the first time since the presidential campaign, support for the democratic party has risen above that of the so called Peoples Power Party (PPP).

Rather than getting belligerent as it stupidly did during the South Korean presidential campaign with all its missile testing, North Korea, would do better to do nothing militarily. The North should forget about ICBM tests and nuclear testing and let the Yoon administration self destruct from its own incompetence and authoritarian tendencies which are seen for what they are in South Korea, a diversion from bad governance. No doubt there are desperate circumstances prompting the North to do the wrong thing. Their last warning seemed to be looking for an opening somewhere, somehow, with the US, which won't yield any "daylight" at all.

A few hours after I made observations similar in nature to those above, I learned that the Yoon administration, had just earlier, concerned about the negative public opinion response to their red baiting of the Moon administration, and the attempt to cast former Moon administration officials as jong buk or bal jengies (communist sympathizers) by reexamining two defector incidents that took place during Moon's administration, suddenly announced a "new" policy toward North Korea. This "new" approach, which to the uniformed might look more attractive than Yoon's diplomatic blundering to date, is actually, dressing up the same old conservative ideas, disguised as something that looks like a "Sunshine Policy" or "Spring has come." Chiefly, the new policy is about changing the human rights picture in North Korea, opening up the North to South Korean communications, supporting their economy if the North gets rid of its nuclear resources and weapons, rejoining separated families, cultivating a homogeneous Korean identity, etc. Getting information into North Korea, whether by broadcasting or balloons, is never going to be effective and only serve to provoke North Korea. I won't dismiss humanitarian or environmental overtures. However, any package seeking to "open up" North Korea, or normalize relations, that starts with human rights or free communications is doomed from the outset. At least one well known conservative politician in South Korea knows this. Likewise, getting North Korea to give up nuclear reactors or weapons, up front, is going nowhere. The way one gets change in North Korea is to do business with North Korea first. Save the propaganda for the amateurs like VOA Korea who are just in the business of maintaining hostility and precluding negotiations at all costs.

The observation has been raised that perhaps there are some unspoken regrets (in the Yoon camp) about the scale of the upcoming summer military exercises with the US, and the possibility that they might provoke a nuclear test in North Korea rather than deter one. That in turn creates the crisis of how to respond. What kind of response could be expected from the US already in a confrontation with Russia over the war in Ukraine, with the midterm elections facing the democrats in the US. What would be the impact of such a nuclear test on the South Korean stock market? With the economic situation in South Korea on the rocks, does South Korea really need to escalate security tensions with North Korea? So all of sudden from Yoon and the Unification Minister, we hear proposals that sound like Sunshine policy but definitely aren't.

Direct tie between Yoon's office and goon squad harassment of retired president?

(Source- 서울의소리 Voice of Seoul youtube 7.12)
욕설 패륜 유튜버 안정권 친누나 '안수경' 대통령 홍보수석실 근무 확인*

Principal in the organization of demos outside former president Moon Jae-in's private residence in Yangsan is radical social media performer, Ahn Jeong-gwan. His sister works in the PR office of President Yoon Seok-yeol. Some of the demonstrators appear to have been taegguki paramilitary types. The demos are characterized by foul language and libelous accusations broadcast at high volume on loudspeakers in excess of local noise ordinances. Lawsuits on behalf of residents in the commuunity filed in court reported that local residents could not sleep and were suffering adverse psychological effects. Police have restricted the demonstrations after the demonstraters continued to violate time and sound limits on their activities. Yoon publicly defended their activities. Ironically, Yoon tried almost immediately after his inauguration to prohibit assemblies entirely on Itaewanno in front of the newly designated presidential office on the Yongsan military base.The court struck down the prohibition in favor of reasonable time, place and manner restrictions.

Yoon's comment supporting the demonstrators' "rights" in Yangsan outside Moon Jae-in's home, had a vindictive quality implying that if people can demonstrate near his office or residence, then demonstrators should be able to violate time, place and mannr restrictions placed on them by local ordinances enforced by police and court relative to the former president's community. A few of Yoon's own party members have expressed disapproval of the Yangsan demonstrations (including Prime Minister Han Duk-soo). There is simply no comparison between the lawful behavior of the limited demonstrations outside the presidential office venue and the raucus, vulgar and invasive behavior in the former president's community. There police initiated restrictions on demonstrators when they failed to comply with local laws. (Korea Times reported 7.13 that democratic supporters of Moon Jae-in have been conducting noisy demonstrations near Yoon's private luxury apartment building in Seocho, Seoul, and residents there have complained about the loud noise.) Former military members with training in pscyhological warfare or other related training will recognize the sleep deprivation, sound abuse tactics used by the demonstrators in Yangsan. So did the court. Representatives of Yoon's office denied a presidential office connection to the radical video streamer Ahn Jeong-gwan; but pictures of him and his sister have been published connecting her to the far right youtube attention seeker. The presidential office stated his activities were not related to her official duties. After the denials there was a report that she tendered her resignation.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ5Z7yAUhUo&t=39s

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 7.12)
Yoon's disapproval rating of 60.8 percent reaches new high, according to KSOI poll for July 8-9. Support for Yoon reaches new low.

Update 7.13- This Voice of Seoul report shows a picture of Yoon's presidential office employee sitting with her brother Ahn Jeong-hwan as invited guests at President Yoon's inauguration ceremony on the grounds of the National Assembly undermining the credibility of presidential office denials of any connection to the offensive nature of demonstrations near Moon Jae-in's private home.

'서울의소리 계정 폭파 배후' 안정권 누나, 대통령실 근무 사실 알려진지 하루만에 사표
'대통령실 "안 씨, 안정권 활동 관여 사실 없다" 주장.. 하지만 안정권, 대통령 취임식 특별 초청장 받기도해'
윤재식 기자 | 기사입력 2022/07/13 [01:26]
http://amn.kr/41982

Update 7.14 Allegedly, the tie to Presidential Office was established through Kim Gon-hee. Ahn Jeong-gwan had been done promotional work and video for Yoon with Kim Gon-hee's "aunt" who allegedly is a minister. The latter produced a video The Lord's Person about Yoon Seok-yeol. Ahn and his sister had a number of youtube channels (promoting Yoon). On one of these channels a private black and white photo of Yoon and his wife apppeared purportedly showing them at their wedding May 18, 2012. 5.18 of course, is the commemoration day for the Gwangju massacre.
안정권 누나와 김건희의 충격적인 관계
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baF3BC5CoTg

Is it real or is it memorex?

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 7.10) 국민대에 'YuJi 논문' 회의록 제출 명령

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-XxuyCdYLY

Polling "deathcross" in President Yoon's public approval/disapproval rating?

(Source-언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 7.4; 2찍 국민들의 늦은 후회...) South Korean public surveys agree that President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating (blue lines) took a dive during his visit to Madrid, while his disapproval rating (red lines) rose to over 50 percent in most surveys. This is being evaluated as a "death cross" by opposition political analysts and ostensibly presages a rocky road ahead for the right wing president.

Leading reasons for Yoon's rising disapproval include poor personnel choices by the new administration and failure to monitor the conditions citizens face during a rocky economic period. The high disapproval rating is unprecedented for a newly elected president in the post dictatorship period of South Korea. Yoon's election margin on March 9, 2022, of .7 percent was the smallest in South Korea election history. The most detailed polling data noted that high declines in approval percentages were observed in the oldest (over 70) voters and also in the Taegu area. These two demographics are still both regarded as strongholds of conservative support.

Yoon snubbed in Madrid

Note: original post 6.29, edited and updated serveral times thru 7.3 11am EST; fuel price error corrected 7.5.

(Source- Seoul Story youtube 6.28) President Biden's "no look" handshake regarded as a symbol of the humiliating foreign policy of South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol.


One has to wonder why President Yoon Seok-yeol of South Korea bothered to go to the NATO get together in Madrid. However, Yoon is all about photo ops, with little on substance. In a short video clip taken inside the cabin of his flight to Europe, Yoon was asked by a reporter why he was going to Madrid. He deferred giving a specific answer. Maybe because he couldn't address the substantive issues. Other than this he spent most of his time shaking hands with the press entourage on his flight as if he were still campaigning on his deceptive man of the people platform.

The Europeans and Americans made it clear that the issues at the NATO meeting were to strengthen the alliance against both Russia and China in the ongoing cold war 2.0. So the question is, what is the point of aggravating China or Russia for South Korea? Yoon played his right wing pro-US, pro-Japan stance during the presidential campaign and just had a summit with President Biden in South Korea recently. After Yoon had already shown his hand during the presidential campaign, given away everything at the US-Korean summit, he lost any diplomatic leverage he could have exercised. So what's the point?

The "no look" video clip is just one of what was a series of diplomatic lapses in Madrid concerning Yoon and the "first lady" Kim Gon-hee, who were both obviously out of their element in the international diplomatic setting. A photograph of Yoon standing with the NATO Secretary General and the leaders of Japan, Australia and New Zealand with his eyes closed, was published on the NATO website and went viral in South Korea. Kim Gon-hee could not even be seen in one photograph of the NATO and partner leaders' wives, and was almost entirely out of view in others. Yoon's arrival in Madrid was evaluated as another humbling experience for South Koreans. There was no red carpet, no honor guard, apparently no official reception formalities of any kind when he arrived at the airport in Madrid. Each of these episodes were compared unfavorably to the "VVIP" reception afforded former president Moon Jae-in and his wife, Kim Jung-sook, in similar international settings.

(Source- News and people youtube 7.2.22) Foreign policy issues outlined during the presidential campaign earlier this year foretold outcomes of Yoon's declared positions. Blue column on the left shows the respective policy positions of former candidate Lee Jae-myung with respect to China, North Korea and US. The red column on the right shows the policies of current President Yoon Seok-yeol during the presidential campaign (click to enlarge to read English translations).

What's next a Japanese - South Korean military alliance?
Was this treatment by NATO just the result of incompetence on the part of Yoon and his foreign policy team? Former Chancellor of the Korea National Diplomacy Academy, Kim Joon-hyung suggested that Yoon's foreign policy is reckless and dangerous. Is South Korea really going to ally itself with a Japan which is aiming to become a great military power again with the prospect of joint US-Japanese offensive strikes against North Korea? Kim suggested that Yoon appears headed in that direction. Under what conditions would such strikes take place? Is South Korea going to play the role of puppet behind the US and Japan? The lack of reflection on the potential damage to South Korean national interests caused by such a loss of independence in setting its foreign policy is dangerous according to Professor Kim. It's evident that at some point during the campaign Yoon had considered the possibility of Japanese forces on the Korean peninsula in the event of a national emergency. Really?

Yoon wasn't even invited to the G-7 "plus" meeting and Japan had made it very clear that there would be no one on one summit with Kishida, impromptu or otherwise, until this and this and that, etc. The recent revelation concerning a South Korean committee that Yoon proposes to establish, would appear intended to set aside the Mitsubishi slave labor litigation judgement. The disclosure also reveals that Japan is not making any real concessions or apologies and that a package similar to the "comfort women" agreement reached with the Park Geun-hye administration is on the table. Frankly it's disgraceful. There was a command performance three way summit among South Korea, the US, and Japan, about regional security issues, but most observers understand that Japan would not have attended with South Korea but for the presence of the US President Joe Biden. Yoon was quoted at one point saying that Russia should be held accountable for its actions. What conceivable benefit South Korea could obtain by interjecting itself into a European conflict is unknown.

Allegedly, Yoon's deputy National Security Advisor Kim Tae-hyo said that the agreement for the Yoon, Biden and Kishida to sit down wasn't reached until the "eleventh hour." This means Kishida was the hold out. Kim Tae-hyo is another who has made a comment showing that he could envison the presence of Japanese forces on the Korean peninsula in some future scenario. This apparently is where Yoon may have picked up this entirely impractical notion. Yet, Kishida wouldn't agree to an informal one on one summit with Yoon. Appearing to make concessions to Korea is bad for ones image in Japanese politics. This despite the fact that Yoon and his security advisor are both pro-Japan 친일 and hardliners 강경파 of the cold war variety. Korean Prime Minister Han Duk-soo ludicrously maintained that the South Korean president apparently joining in the NATO/anti-Sino front wouldn't have any significant economic repercussions on the South Korean economy. That economyy is already in the tank with 6.50 dollar a gallon gasoline (about 2200kw per ltr in Seoul), a growth rate projected at less than 2 percent, and a growing debt problem. China helped South Korea when Japan used retaliatory trade measures to damage its semi-conductor manufacturing sector. Is South Korea going to join efforts now to "decouple" from its largest trade partner in order to "safeguard its supply chain?"

The question is what did Yoon get for his humiliating experience in Madrid? Yoon got a photo op with Biden and Kishida (no one on one with Kishida); a deal for Samsung electronics in the Netherlands, apparently; and an opportunity to give a platitudious three minute speech about countries "governed by law." The latter hit a sore spot with critics given his effort to secure direct control of South Korea's police back home. That effort by Yoon is regarded by the political opposition as unlawful, and threatening a return to a police state. (See our previous post Police reforms point to authoritarian future for South Korea, June 28).


https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/1541946177314324480

윤석열부부의 불안한 첫 외교; 시사건건 youtube 6.28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1xUKdQcGkA&t=212s

세계가 주목할 기발한 외교술! 손금외교! / 하나하나씩 들어맞는 미국 싱크탱크의 예견!; News and people youtube, 7.2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqIVzCl5YJc

김어준의 뉴스공장 youtube 6.29
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dnh0N-m9DwY

Police reforms point to authoritarian future for South Korea

Fortunately, the Hankyoreh English language edition has two recent reports on proprosed "reorganization" of the National Police Agency to place it under the supervision of the South Korean Ministry of the Interior and Safety by the new Yoon administration in South Korea. I had been listening to news commmentary on these developments and frankly, they were difficult to interpret. Salient excepts of these two articles are posted below for purposes of discussion.

S. Korean Interior and Safety Ministry blitzes through plans to establish control over police Hankyoreh
Posted on : Jun.28,2022 17:53 KST Modified on : Jun.28,2022 17:53 KST

The South Korean Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS) plans to share an outline on July 15 for a new “police bureau” to oversee the police’s duties and organizations, along with a plan for internal regulations to serve as a basis for the National Police Agency commissioner general’s exercise of command authority.

The ministry sent a clear message that it would be wasting no time going ahead with its original plan, despite critics arguing it would be inappropriate for the administration to exercise direct control over the police. Police Commissioner-General Kim Chang-yong declared his intent to resign shortly before the announcement by the MOIS.The South Korean Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS) plans to share an outline on July 15 for a new “police bureau” to oversee the police’s duties and organizations, along with a plan for internal regulations to serve as a basis for the National Police Agency commissioner general’s exercise of command authority.

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1048844.html


Why Yoon is fuming over confusion about top-level police appointments
Posted on : Jun.24,2022 16:52 KST Modified on : Jun.24,2022 16:52 KST
Hankyoreh

...Many within the police believe Yoon is disciplining the organization for opposing his intent to deploy his close associate — Minister of the Interior and Safety Lee Sang-min — to establish a “police bureau” akin to the Criminal Affairs Bureau that oversees prosecutors within the Ministry of Justice....

...However, the police and the Ministry of the Interior and Safety are two disparate organizations founded on distinct historical contexts, legal regulations, and organizational structures. First, the Interior and Safety Ministry is not in charge of public security and police affairs according to the Government Organization Act. This is because the National Security Headquarters of the Ministry of Home Affairs (currently the Ministry of Interior and Safety), which wielded enormous power during military dictatorships, was abolished following legal reforms after Korea’s democratization...

...Han Sang-hee, a professor of law at Konkuk University, commented, “What authorities a state institution has should be decided by law, and deviations from what the law states and means should be made passively.* Authority over public security is granted to the National Police Agency, and there’s no room to interpret that the Minister of the Interior and Safety can exercise [such an authority].”

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1048403.html

Don't be confused by the administrative machinations described in the Jun 24 article designed to make the National Police Agency look like some kind of rogue operation "passing the president's authority." The actions taken by the MOIS are ultra vires as lawyers say. The effort to reduce the independence of the police as an institution, is intended to circumvent the Prosecution Reform bills enacted by the National Assembly before Yoon took office, drastically curtailing prosecution powers to investigate criminal charges. Those investigative powers were being abused by Yoon's former office of the Prosecutor General. Yoon left office under a cloud which he and the conservative media sought to cover up. He was sanctioned by a Ministry of Justice Disciplinary Committee for unethical and unprofessional behavior. That behavior included unlawful investigation of judges, interfering in at least one case in which he had a conflict of interest, and adversely affecting the political impartiality of the Public Prosecutor's Offices. Most of the investigative powers formerly held by the PPO were transferred to the nation's police agencies to cure the abuse of power in the PPO which used its investigative authority to initiate prosecution of political rivals of the right, dissenters and other critics.

As pointed out in the second article by the law professor, the organization of the National Police Agency is established by law, and can't be changed by regulation. This is actually an effort by Yoon to effectively give him total police power over South Korea.

*Changes to law should be made "conservatively" is a better interpretation of the professor's statement rather than "passively."
(...법률로 정해야 하고 법률에 명문된 의미를 벗어나는 건 소극적으로 해야 한다.)

Why Japan doesn't trust President Yoon Seok-yeol of South Korea

There is a certain irony in raising the issue of trust on Japan's part with respect to South Korea. This is viewed in South Korea from the perspective of being among the last countries in the world to be formally colonized in the modern era. Japan imposed it's imperial rule over Korea by force, formally annexing Korea in 1910, regardless of their revisionist contentions to the contrary. Substantial Japanese military interventions and other uses of force in South Korea began in earnest in 1894. This post is based, in large part, on Hosaka Yuji's June 25 youtube presentation on the issue of Japanese lack of trust in South Korea's new conservative President Yoon Seok-yeol.*

*[일본직격] 일본이 윤석열을 의심하기 시작했다
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOp2ng3DNQE

It is easiest to grasp the issue when the two-faced opportunistic quality of Yoon's behavior is understood. This point is made near the end of Hosaka Yuji's presentation when he discusses the Japanese right's perspective as explained by Professor Nishioka Sutomu. Nishioka Sutomu notes that although Yoon and his principal functionaries come from the legal world in South Korea, they have demonstrated a proclivity to engage in unlawful politically motivated prosecutions. Nishioka cites the cases of former president Park Geun-hye and former justice minister Cho Guk as examples of opportunistic use of the law by Yoon to achieve his own political objectives.

(Source- 이재명은 합니다 youtube 6.27.22 내 말이 틀렸어?) Right here, the culprit who carried out the impeachment, Yoon Seok-seol. Yoon Seok-yeol in photo op with former former president Park Geun-hye.


It is relatively easy to understand why the Japanese right looks unfavorably at the impeachment and prosecution of Park Geun-hye. She stood by the 1965 agreement normalizing Japan-South Korean relations, negotiated by her pro-Japanese father, former dictator Park Chung-hee. Park Geun-hye also agreed to a settlement with Japan of the so called comfort women dispute for a relatively small sum of about 9 million dollars. Additionally, her administration blocked progress and final judgement in litigation in South Korea brought against Japanese corporations for their use of Korean slave labor during the wartime period. Yoon was a principal player on the legal team that prosecuted Park Geun-hye after her impeachment. Yoon later directed the prosecution of Cho Guk and his wife. In the instance of the slave labor cases, it's arguable that the Japanese government was the party seeking to interfere in Korea's domestic judicial process.

(Source- 열린공감TV youtube 7.21.20) Former Justice Minister Cho Guk was expected to lead the reform of the administration of justice in South Korea, instead he was forced out of office by indictments against family members brought under the direction of Yoon Seok-yeol, then Prosecutor General of South Korea. Cho Guk’s wife is currently serving a four year prison term and he is undergoing criminal prosecution currently.


The Japanese legal observer Sutomu noted that former Justice Minister Cho Guk was politically targeted by Yoon and his "division" in the public prosecutors office because he was the flag bearer for the democratic party's effort to reform the administration of justice in South Korea. In other words, Yoon sought to protect the arbitrary political power of his office as Prosecutor General at that time with a politically motivated and unjust prosecution. So the gist of the Japanese LDP right's view of Yoon is that he is opportunistic and will likely conduct South Korean affairs in an "unlawful" manner, in other words, inconsistent with the Japanese legal positions on the various disputes now pending between South Korea and Japan.

Some signs of Yoon's unreliability and opportunism are evident in his announcemment of his presidential candidacy at the Patriot Yoon Bong-kil Memorial on June 29, 2021. Yoon Bong-kil is regarded as a terrorist in Japan. He brought a bomb to a park in Shanghai on Aprii 29, 1932, to kill Japanese officials at an event to celebrate the Emperor's birthday. A Japanese government official was killed along with an Imperial Army general who died from his wounds. Other Japanese dignitaries were seriously wounded. Patriot Yoon Bong-kil was arrested and later executed by the Japanese. In his candidacy annoucement, Yoon Seok-yeol tried to bridge the independence movement v. pro-Japanese rift in South Korean domestic politics by condemning the politics of the prior Moon administration as "Bamboo Spear Song" demagogy damaging to South Korean Japanese relations.* It appears that Japan didn't get the subtlety of Yoon's hypocrisy. As the prospective conservative candidate for president he had to placate the pro-Japanese collaborator legacy elites who traditionally have strongly influenced the conservative parties in South Korea since 1948. At the same time he used the venue to appeal to popular South Korean anti-Japanese nationalism. This sort of posturing by Yoon led to characterizations by otherwise knowledgeable observers that Yoon was a "centrist" and a "populist," when there is really nothing further from the truth, Yoon is far right.

*죽창가 Bamboo Spear Song
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2021/08/bamboo-spear-song.html

(Source- OhMyNewsTV youtube 6.25)
Then presidential candidate Yoon poses with a picture of independence movement patriot Ahn Jung-geun. Professor Hosaka Yuji (left) an expert in Japanese-Korean relations produces the program 일본직격 (Direct Hit Japan).

During his campaigning, Yoon posed with a picture of another Korean independence movement patriot Ahn Jung-geun, at his memorial site at Hyochang Park, August 15, 2021, Liberation Day (from Japan). Patriot Ahn is known for assassinating the former Governor General of South Korea, and first Prime Minister of Japan, Ito Hirobumi, in Harbin, China, October 26, 1909. He was arrested and later hanged by Japan for his act, perceived as terrorism in Japan. The humiliating Treaty of Eulsa had been forced on South Korea by Japan in 1905, making the Chosun dynasty a Japanese protectorate.

(Source- OhMyNewsTV youtube 6.25)

Next, on September 11, 2021, Yoon met with Lee Yong-su, a "comfort woman" survivor at the Comfort Woman Memorial Museum. Yoon promised to Lee that he would obtain an apology from the Japanese government for what they had done to Korean women as sex slaves for the Japanese Imperial Army during WWII. This pledge by Yoon on the campaign trail is completely contrary to the Japanese revisionist view of their WWII history in which the comfort women are described as prostitutes who volunteered to provide sexual services to Japanese soldiers for pay.

Naturally, there are the other disputes between Japan and South Korea, including Japan's territorial claims on the Dokdo islets which are controlled by South Korea. There are also disputes over UNESCO designations of Japanese historical sites, such as Gunhamdo (Battleship Island), Japan, where mines were worked by Korean slave laborers "conscripted" during WWII. There are the relaively recent so called "maritime patrol" incidents,* and the trade disputes which evolved as retaliation by Japan against South Korea for raising the other issues mentioned, primarily the slave labor court judgement finding Japanese corporations liable for damages to the victims.

*South Korea Protests Repeated Naval Encounters with Japanese P-1 Maritime Patrol Aircraft, https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/01/south-korea-protests-third-naval.html

Yoon has demonstrated a pliable receptivity to US requests to improve relations with Japan. Unfortunately, Japan places all the blame on South Korea for their ongoing disputes, and claims it is the responsibility of the South Korean administration to apologize in respect to outstanding differences, admit that South Korea is wrong, and correct it ways. In a prior program, Hosaka Yuji characterized Japan's curt responses to South Korean overtures for direct discussions and a summit as "Yakusa like," reflecting a rude domineering attitude with no intention of engaging in negotiation or compromise, and demonstrating little respect for South Korea's sovereignty.

천상의꽃 Heavenly Flower

Lyrice 천진화 melody 강주현

인연 따라 왔다
By karma we arrive
인연 따라 가는 인생
By karma we leave life
나무아미타불 나무아미타불
Save us, merciful Buddha
목탁소리 도량을 휘 돌아나갈제
Moktak sounds float round the temple
보고파라 보고 파라
I miss you, I miss you
그림자처럼 머물다가신 님이시여
Like a shadow, you stayed and left, my beloved

빈손으로 왔다 빈손으로 가는 인생
Life came with empty hands and leaves empty handed
나무아미타불 나무아미타불
Save us, merciful Buddha, Save us, merciful Buddha
고요한 풍경소리 휘 돌아나갈제
The soft sound of the wind chimes goes round
그리워라 그리워라
Longing, longing
은은히 피어나는 천상의 바람
The indistinct pealing of a heavenly breeze

온들간들 세상사 무심하여라
Heedless to coming and goings of worldly affairs
마지막 미소 선물로 남기시고
Only your last smile remains as a gift
인연의 끈 놓으셨네
The bond of fate let loose,
보고파라 보고파 보고파라
I miss you, I miss you
그리워라 그리워라
Longing, longing
평화로운 모습으로 가신님
With a peaceful countenance, my beloved goes,
힘겨운 짐일랑 내려놓으시고
Lay down your heavy burden
이제는 편히 편히 가소서
Now, easily, easily go
이제는 편히 편히 쉬소서
Now, comfortably, comfortably rest
서방정토 극락세계 아미타 부처님
Western paradise, land of happiness, Amitahba Buddha-nim
해탈의길 열어 주소서
Please open the path to Nirvana
해탈의길 열어 주소서
Please open the path to Nirvana

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebX2TCvPlM

무생화(보현스님) Lifeless Flower - Bohyun Seunim

- 무생화(보현스님) 명사십리 해당화야 꽃 진다고 서러 마라
At Myeongsa beach, rugusa rose flowers fall, don't be sad
명년 3월 봄이 오면 너는 다시 피련만
In March, coming year, when spring comes, you will bloom again,
우리인생 한번가면 다시 오기 어려워라
Once our life goes, coming again is difficult,
빈손으로 나왔다가 빈손들고 가는 인생
Life emerged empty handed, with empty hands it leaves
어디에서 왔으며 어디로 가는가
From somewhere we came, but where do we go?
한조각 뜬구름이 모였다 흩어지는 것 Fragments of clouds gather and then disperse
풀잎에 이슬이라 공수래 공수거
On blades of grass, morning dew comes and goes, leaving nothing
물위에 거품이라 일장춘몽 꿈이로다
Bubbles on water, a spring fantasy scene we dream

어디에서 왔으며 어디로 가는가 From somewhere we appear, but where do we go?
한 조각 뜬구름이 모였다 흩어지는 것
Fragments of clouds gather and then disperse
풀잎에 이슬이라 공수래 공수거
On blades of grass morning dew, comes and goes, leaving nothing
물 위에 거품이라 일장춘몽 꿈이로다.
Bubbles on water, a spring fantasy we dream
물 위에 거품이라 일장춘몽 꿈이로다.
Bubbles on water, a spring fantasy we dream


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QGtOQsm1kQ

Han O Bek Nyun 한오백년 500 years sorrow

Sorrows are many in this world, a heartless lover
lets affection go and just leaves, so the tears flow
Naturally, it is like that,
Five hundred years sorrow in life they say- why are you troubled?
By a field of fine sand on the beach, the seven stars gather
I pray and plead for my beloved to appear.
Naturally, it is like that,
Five hundred years sorrow in life they say- why are you troubled?

In the flower of youth, love trampled and devastated
tears flowing, where could one go
Naturally, it is like that,
Five hundred years sorrow in life they say- why are you troubled?
Sorrows are many in this cold world,
without compassion, I don't think I can live.
Naturally, it is like that,
Five hundred years sorrow in life they say, why are you troubled?


This is my interpretation of some verses chosen by contemporary singers for their performances from the traditional Korean "minyo" or folk song. The original version depicts the abandoned lover, who laments her fate and describes the different ways she recalls her lost love. The original is substantially longer. My interpretation is entirely subjective. There is no consensus on the title's exact meaning in English, which is in the refrain, and subject to some dispute. The lyrics are archaic, or ambiguous in several parts. I hadn't seen any good translations. I think that perhaps due to the song being an oral tradition. Nevertheless, the song's popular appeal in South Korea causes many traditional and popular singers to perform Han O Bek Nyun.

First Lady Kim Gon-hee meets with former dictator’s wife Lee Soon-ja

(Source- Hankyoreh 6.16)

Birds of a feather flock together. Attempts by Yoon Seok-yeol and his wife, Kim Gon-hee to rehabilitate the image of the notorious former dictator Chun Doo-hwan and his wife are a telling indicator of the direction of the new South Korean administration.

Yoon post-election crackdown on political opponents underway

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 6.2) This political cartoon depicts the grim bias of the South Korean media in collusion with the justice system again under Yoon Seok-yeol's complete control. Korean mainstream media portray former presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung's wife, Kim Hye-kyeong, who is being investigated by police for suspicion of misuse of an office credit card while Lee Jae-myung was Governor of Gyeonggido. Police obtained warrants to search 129 commercial establishments including a number of restaurants and cafes. The graphic shows Lee's wife inside the red box apologizing for an alleged unauthorized purchase of meat made on the office credit card for around 100 dollars, while the mainsteam broadcast media on prime time produce numerous exclusive reports and news flashes, portraying horror and shock.

Outside the conservative media coverage (outside the red box), Yoon, his mother in law Choi, and wife, Kim Gon-hee, are portrayed in connection with their latest alleged financial derelictions. Yoon has never revealed what exactly his office expenses, as Prosecutor General, 14.7 billion won (over ten million dollars) were spent on. An accounting has never been released to the public. Choi's trials for fraudulent operation of a rehabilitation center resulting in two million dollars of state medical funds as income to her resulted in an acquittal on appeal after a belated trial. All other suspects received prison terms. Wife Kim Gon-hee was never investigated for her alleged involvement in an insider stock trading scandal (Deustche Motors) also where all the other suspects were given terms of confinement after trial. Kim was alleged to have profited by approximately 3 million dollars in that scheme. Her mother was also alleged to have been involved. Each family member contemplates the proverbial "gold spoon" 금수저 symbolic of the favoritism afforded Korean elites.

Recent news reports indicate that Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung himself is now under investigation for election law violations along with 48 officials elected to local or regional offices in the June 1 elections. Lee just won office as a National Assembly member from an Inchon district June 1, in a race to fill a vacancy, after having lost the March 9 presidential election to Yoon. The legal actions the day after the regional elections are widely regarded as "revenge investigations" but are also considered by some critics to reflect an attempt to establish authoritarian rule through Yoon's consolidated control of the administration of justice by eliminating political rivals from the public stage by prosecuting them.

Lee allegedly promulgated false information intending to affect the campaign outcome by circulating a facebook entry that affirmed he was against privatization of state assets including electric power, water works, airports and railroads. This is alleged by PPP to have been a factual misrepresentation of the conservative administration's position which had not considered "privatization." Lee published his position on facebook on May 18, the day after the Chief of Yoon's presidential secretarial office chief, Kim Dae-gi 김대기 stated, in a National Assembly steering committee hearing, that public assets including those mentioned by Lee, could be financialized by selling off 30 to 40 percent of the public entity in the form of stock to the public. He said it would be a large financial resource to the government. He argued that the fact that the government retained a 51 percent controlling interest and management rights of the state entity made characterizing the transaction as privatization untrue. Yet, this issue had come up in the Lee Myung-bak administration, in whose office Kim had served, where the same thing was tried with Korea Power, a state electric utility, and the failure to produce return for minority stakeholders resulted in repeated litigation, financial losses, and increasing utility bills for customers.

Also to consider is Yoon's avowed admiration for the policies of economist Milton Friedman, and that the top five floors of the so called "People's House" presidential office building on Yongsan garrison are devoted to "public private" partnerships. The investigation of Lee is clearly contrived and politically motivated. The winner of the Gyeonggi Province governor's race, another democrat is also targeted. Lee's election and the election of Kim Dong-yon as Geonggido governor were the high points in the otherwise poor showing of the democratic party candidates in the regional and local elections. Reportedly, in addition to a total of 48 elected candidates being investigated are hundreds of others for alleged election law violations.*

*878 under prosecution probe for alleged violations related to local elections; Yonhap News Agency, 1630 June 2;
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220602006851315

Also see: 인천공항공사 민영화 논란, 지분 40% 매각은 민영화가 아닐까? 김백겸 기자 vop.co.kr 5.20.2022;
https://vop.co.kr/A00001613323.html