Kim in Vladivostok, Who's the Boss?

(Source- Channel A News 4.26) Choe Son Hui (left circle) arrives in the same limo with Kim Jong Un at the Vladivostok venue for the summit. Her nominal boss, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, (right circle) apparently rode in the front, while Choe sat in the rear with Kim Jong Un.

It was said that Russians respect an intelligent woman. It's likely Lavrov and Choe Son Hui will get along. Both are fond of slashing opponents rhetorically. Putin too, is very sharp intellectually. There was an awkward moment early on, where Putin went through the welcoming formalities and congratulated Kim on his recent "election" to his position as leader of the Korean people by the Supreme People's Assembly. Kim was very tense at least early on during the summit. There was a lot of commentary about his ill fitting Mao style suit. Kim Yo Jong, Kim's ubiquitous sister, was noted to be missing from the public appearances. Some of the Channel A analysts suspect that the stress of recent events may be affecting Kim Jong Un's health. He was short of breath, nervously licking his lips, and very mechanical reading his speech. There was more than one report that the agenda was cut short, and that Kim left before a final dinner that had been previously scheduled. It may be that Putin had to get going to the Belt and Road forum.

(Source- Channel A News 4.26) (title- the real reason for Kim Yong Chol's absence?) Why did Chairman Kim bring along Choi Son Hui, First Vice Foreign Minister? To dispel his image as dictator? Choe sits to the right of Sergei Lavrov. Ri Yong Ho, DPRK Foreign Minister sits to Putin's left.


The major import of the summit seems to be having Kim recover momentum after the debacle at the Hanoi summit with the US. Everyone noticed that Kim Yong Chol wasn't with the North Korean delegation in Vladivostok. It looks like Choe Son Hui has been elevated to a primary position as nuclear negotiator. This would be in her new position as First Vice Minister of Foreign Policy, and as the new and solitary female member of the powerful State Affairs Committee.

On Putin's side, he warmed up to his mission after a slightly rocky start. He may not be able to do much more in material terms to help Kim out in the current maximum pressure situation with all the sanctions choking the North Korean economy. Russia is a major supplier of fuel to North Korea. Recently, VOA reported that Russian refined fuel exports when considered with substantially smaller Chinese exports were 19 percent in excess of the annual quota pro-rated, so far this year. Putin could support humanitarian aid efforts unilaterally, and also in the UN Security Council. He can also block any additional sanctions by the UN but that role is already recognized. In terms of diplomacy, Putin weighs in on the side of the "step by step" approach to the denuclearization negotiations in contra-distinction to the US "all or nothing" approach. The latter is also referred to as the "big deal," with all sanctions relief reserved until the end of complete denuclearization by North Korea.

Thae Yong Ho criticized Putin's approach which emphasized peace on the peninsula and security guarantees for the Kim regime. Putin also alluded to the prospect of multiparty efforts perhaps along the lines of the previous six party talks to realize those security guarantees. Thae emphasized that Putin didn't focus on denuclearization but only what the US should do. He also stated that a step by step approach with reciprocal sanctions relief would compromise the effort to completely denuclearize North Korea. This has consistently been his position all along, and it seems oddly unrealistic, and coincident with the position of the US and its military allies, as opposed to that of South Korea itself. One would definitely have to place Thae solidly on the right wing opposition side in terms of South Korean domestic politics.

(Source- Channel A News 4.26) Kim Il Sung, Shin Jin Soon, advocated in those days as Soviet foreign relations voice ( literally "wind pipe." )


The main positive contribution of Thae Yong Ho's analysis was his commentary on the elevation of Choe Son Hui to the inner circle of elite power holders in North Korea. Thae mentioned three women as significant aides to Kim Il Sung during the early days of communist rule in North Korea. Most significant of these was Shin Jin Soon, a graduate of the elite Kyongseong International University, who was said to speak seven languages, and play a major role in North Korean international relations, particularly with Russia, as early as 1945. Her relationship with Kim Il Sung went back to the struggle against the Japanese Empire. Russia was referred to as brother in the struggle against Imperial Japan in Kim Jong Un's Vladivostok speech, a historical bond that tied the two countries together.

The elevation of Choe Son Hui to the elite power level in North Korea is a product of her outstanding academic achievement at elite academic institutions, the failure of the Hanoi summit to which Kim Yong Chol's decline is attributed, and the model provided by Kim Il Sung's promotion of elite women to facilitate foreign policy goals. Shin Jin Soon, historically was described as the "wind pipe" with Russia. Kim Jong Un was said to be going to Vladivostok for an "oxygen supply." Ostensibly, the presence of an influential and worldly woman with the Kim delegation, presents a softer image of the dictatorship, in a world where many countries are devoid of women in positions of power.

(Source- Channel A News 4.26) Kim Jong Un: An intelligent woman is good. Thae Yong Ho: "It looks like Kim will be using Choe Son Hui alot for nuclear negotiations."

It might be worthwhile to consider the important role played by Choe in comparison to the other women around Kim as his personal support group. Kim is in an isolated position and younger and less experienced than most of the international figures he meets, for example, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin. Thae notes the same has held true inside Kim's own ruling party, where older generation officials have dominated and the much younger heir to power has been engaged in a protracted effort to remove or replace them. Thae characterized the current North Korean leadership circles in term of an older generation typically in their sixties, that is, around thirty years older than Kim. Choe is a little younger than this at age 54, it is believed, and serves as an experienced bridge domestically and internationally as an adviser. The other women in Kim's life: wife, Ri Sol Ju; sister, Kim Yo Jong; and confidante, Hyon Song Wol, are like Kim himself substantially younger. Kim Yo Jong seems to be a highly visible pragmatic assistant when it comes to logistics, protocol, and propaganda. She was noticeably absent in Vladivostok. Choe, more so than the younger women, now has not only the role of a maternal mentor for a relatively young Kim, but the experience to provide the intellectual support and advice in a most challenging if not desperate international situation.

Free Joseon: Cut off the tail- protect the vital organs

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 4.22) US State Department press briefing, Robert Palladino, "the United States government was not involved." Note the facial expression.

The arrest of Christopher Ahn in the US based upon a request from Spain for extradition was the number one story on today's Channel A News Top Ten program. The arrest and the reported return of items stolen from the embassy in Madrid by the Free Joseon group was regarded as a confusing situation that required some explanation.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 4.17) Three identities of Adrian Hong, used in Europe by the Free Joseon leader, as portrayed by Channel A graphic.

It doesn't actually seem all that mysterious or confusing to those familiar with cold war era spy plots depicted in novels or movies. If one considers the moniker "Oswaldo Trump," the implicit message there seems to be to keep on the right cold war path. Ironically, Victor Cha's latest opinion, in The National Interest Magazine, on relations with North Korea exemplifies the greatest fear inside the national security establishment, that somehow after the debacle arranged by Bolton and Pompeo at Hanoi, a nuclear agreement might still emerge and result in downsizing of US military presence in the far east. The other symbolic aspect of the term "Oswaldo" is the notion of the sacrificial lamb, or scapegoat in these skull and dagger capers. One of the Channel A analysts belabored the obvious when he said the stolen digital data from the embassy was already in US possession and described the return thereof, by the FBI, as a symbolic gesture in terms of compliance with international law. Further, the same is true of Ahn's arrest. That the US authorities will continue to search for the other members of the group is the intention his arrest is meant to convey to the international community.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 4.22) FBI returns stolen goods taken by force by Free Joseon to Spanish Court so they can be returned to the North Korean Embassy.

Earlier commentary here referred to the popular expression "burn notice" made popular in the television series of the same name, about a former US intelligence agent who free lances in south Florida and who takes on private clients in the interest of justice and has to maneuver his way around the authorities. According to the Channel A News allegations, Christopher Ahn has been arrested upon Spain's request for extradition, after serving the Free Joseon cause by guiding Kim Han Sol to safety and participating in the Madrid mission. The Channel A analysts used the concept of cutting off the tail of an organization to present the image of compliance with international law. Another expression used was "protect the vital organs." According to the Channel A program, Adrian Hong avoided arrest when his dwelling was searched.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 4.22) Kim Jong Bong, far left side, can't stop smiling, as his colleague explains why the US arrested American citizen and former US Marine, Christopher Ahn, and was forced to return the items stolen from the DPRK embassy in Madrid.

Kim Jong Bong, a national security expert in South Korea, felt that the extradition arrest would serve to mitigate any international dispute at this point. At the same time he expressed the opinion that Ahn's extradition could be delayed for as long as three years and during that time, the situation as it exists at present would be resolved one way or another.

Incidentally, Channel A News over the weekend reported that a high level envoy from the North Korean foreign ministry sent to Vladivostok in advance of Kim Jong Un's summit with Vladimir Putin, some days ago, applied for political asylum in Belarus, and has defected.

The legend continues; here's your burn notice

The arrest of Christopher Ahn prompted me to update some previous commentary on Free Joseon:

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 3.29) According to, Kim Jong Bong, a former Korean National Intelligence Service employee, Adrian Hong Chang had previously contacted Kim Jong Nam and asked him to lead a government in exile repeatedly which he refused to do.

(Source- YTN News 3.29) Kim Han Sol receiving US protection...going forward will this be a variable in negotiations? Story of Kim Han Sol's journey. State Department has nothing to say. Who assisted in Kim Han Sol's American journey?

During the YTN interview, national security analyst Kim Jong Bong, said that according to a Japanese language report, Kim Jong Nam met with two CIA people directly before he was killed at the Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017. (Kim Jong Nam was Kim Han Sol's father and Kim Jong Un's half brother.) In his opinion the Japanese report was credible. The YTN news graphic in the background shows the relationship he observes among three entities during the rescue of Kim Han Sol after his father's death: Choellima Civil Defense, extract; CIA, transfer; FBI protect. Choellima Civil Defense spirited Kim Han Sol away from Macau within 48 hours of his father's reported assassination according to current news accounts. Free Joseon is the new name of the organization now associated with the burglary of the occupied DPRK embassy in Madrid.

Kim Jong Bong, a former National Intelligence Service, North Korea desk analyst, stated he felt there was involvement by the CIA in the Kim Han Sol defection and protection operation by the so called Choellima Civil Defense group, but doesn't believe they provided the command or direct support for the DPRK Madrid embassy break in. He concedes that other observers perceive the possibility of US direct support but feels that this kind of action by the US is unlikely because it would hurt US interests and be futile in that respect. Can the US afford to appear in a role supporting or aiding the violation of international law in respect to embassies?

The timing of the attack was intended to discourage the negotiations with the DPRK in Hanoi. (Despite a denial to the contrary on the Free Joseon web site.) Free Joseon also provides a useful cutout for operations to weaken the DPRK political position in prospective negotiations and otherwise. Namely, an "independent group" carried out the embassy attack and then provided the FBI with intelligence information they took by force. Most Korean analysts seem to agree that the group that carried out the embassy attack has had extensive training in such special operations from military or intelligence training sources. The YTN guest, who also appears regularly on Channel A News Top Ten as an expert commentator, thinks the US relationship with Adrian Hong Chang probably emerged over his years of assisting and providing sanctuary to North Korean defectors.

Channel A News through a special Channel A News broadcast on April 17 available on youtube (Korean language) has played a role in propagating the notion that significant organized resistance exists in North Korea that will overthrow the totalitarian communist regime sooner or later. The analyst Kim Jong Bong who has been getting a lot of air time in these broadcasts made two interesting points. One is that it is completely inappropriate to cast another Kim heir apparent in a leadership role in Free Joseon, or even to make him the focus of such a group. (I would argue that it is counter-intuitive.) The second point, is that he believes that the attack on the Madrid embassy may have been a factor in the collapse of nuclear talks in Hanoi, affecting not only North Korea's attitude toward the talks, but also of that of Donald Trump.

The April 17 Channel A special on Free Joseon tries to make the case through an anonymous interview, (disguised voice of a male individual behind a screen), of a Free Joseon member claiming that a new generation of North Koreans born to elite purge victim families are behind the organization and (for that reason) have advanced skill sets, IT and security training, and the monetary resources to pose a threat to the regime. The latter doesn't seem very persuasive currently as the most significant links thus far appear to be with the US, namely Hong, and now, Christopher Ahn. The identity of a member labelled as Sam Ryu, said to be an American in the media after the Madrid incident, isn't clear at this point. Is this the USMC veteran Ahn or someone else? The impact, if any in North Korea, appears to be mostly psychological at this point.

According to Channel A news, Korean analysts believe Kim Han Sol is hiding in the US under FBI protection. Kim Jong Un also has a surviving older brother, Kim Jong Chul. In terms of the "mysterious" origins of the Free Joseon organization, two things stand out. The first is the disclosure of the groups solicitation of Kim Jong Nam as the representative leader of the exile provisional government and then his repeated refusal to play that role which allows all kinds of speculation. This plot is consistent with historical dynastic intrigues in Chosun that predate the modern era. Secondly, the prosecution case against the alleged perpetrators of the crime in Kuala Lumpur basically was extremely weak from the beginning. Lack of evidence forced the government to release the one North Korean male suspect in custody. Other alleged North Korean suspects escaped the country. The prosecution itself stated at the outset that it couldn't prove a state conspiracy, but could prove that the two female suspects, who were not North Koreans, were involved materially in killing the victim. They actually had enormous difficulty with that task as well and both suspects are free now, one case dismissed and the other released on a very generous plea bargain. These factual outcomes seem to have compelled the Channel A News presentation to recount in some detail the events surrounding the Kuala Lumpur airport killing, as part of the background of Free Joseon and its role safeguarding Kim Han Sol.

Why Pompeo and his "team" are unsuited for diplomacy

The first is his temperament. He loses his temper and blames others inappropriately. He accused the South Korean National Security Adviser of lying to him at one point when things weren't going too well between the two summits. He said that the Blue House official untruthfully said Kim Jong Un was committed to denuclearization.

That angry remark by Pompeo last December toward the Blue House National Security Adviser, Chung Eui-yong, calling him "a liar," was made public March 26, as reported by Channel A News, in an escalation of recriminations and ill consideration toward the ally most directly affected by US diplomatic blundering, and the lack of a more constructive approach.

It isn't unlikely that Kim is dissembling more or less at various points in talks, that would be logical to consider, but why would you accuse a long standing ally of "lying?" Is that diplomatic? It's apparent that Chung Eui-yong doesn't really want to deal with Pompeo (or Bolton) personally again. There are other rude statements made anonymously and reported in advance of South Korean envoys or dignitaries meeting US officials emanating from the State Department which I won't bother rehashing. These reflect on Pompeo poorly.

I just watched a recently uploaded video in which Pompeo averred at a public presentation that Kim told him personally "no less than six times he wants to denuclearize" in the way of laying a foundation for future talks. So he blows whichever way is politically convenient for him at the time. (He went off on some reporter at a press conference in Colombia a few days ago.)

The second point is a technical one, Pompeo really has no experience negotiating nuclear issues. What experience does he have in international affairs really? One year at the CIA where Andrew Kim and others held his hand? On Channel A Top Ten News today, which is a conservative mainstream broadcast news channel in South Korea, one of their national security affairs analysts just stated it that bluntly. He's not really qualified to negotiate a nuclear agreement. This brings into question of course, who is qualified on the Trump team to negotiate nuclear issues? The notion of "top down" negotiations is now the issue. Why is it that Trump is enamored of "top down?" So he can opportunistically respond to events on the spur of the moment, to satisfy his political instincts such as they are, for domestic political reasons. One could easily contend that Pompeo plays the exact same game for his own political ambition. Such vacillation and uncertainty play right into Bolton's game, who for better or worse, is the only one with a consistent but irresponsibly dangerous vision of what US policy should be - no negotiation at all, just demands.

In terms of just willy-nilly going one way or another, South Korean observers have noted that Pompeo before Singapore and intermittently before Hanoi, indicated a willingness to consider the "step by step" process in negotiations. Then when arriving at Hanoi he and "the team" abruptly reverse course and become completely inflexible in an all or nothing approach. One of the reasons for these reversals is that both Trump and Pompeo are looking toward their domestic political audience and playing to it, with views of the upcoming election cycle in mind.

Trump and Pompeo both make vague and slippery allusions to a step by step or long term process in their statements, in a context clearly intended to mislead the North Koreans. What they mean by this is completely different that what Koreans, Chinese or Russian's mean by step by step. One Top Ten analyst, a former South Korean National Intelligence Service analyst suggested, that the negotiating process was so subject to US domestic political influences, that it was likely that the White House "team" would just string North Korea along with the phony dichotomy of bad state to state relations between North Korea and the United States (maximum pressure), juxtaposed with the absurd "love relationship" between Donald Trump and Kim. The analyst proffered the scenario whereby North Korea and the US public are strung along for the necessary length of time, and then a confrontation similar to that in 2017 emerges with the possibility of war greater than ever during a key period of the 2020 election campaign.

Kim Jong Un's "Butler" Observed in Vladivostock

(Source- VOA Korea, 4.18) The Japanese press is reporting that Kim Jong Un's chief of protocol Kim Chang Son has been observed in Vladivostok, fueling speculation that Kim will meet with Vladimir Putin there next week.

DPRK: Significant Appointments at Party Politburo Meeting

The Party Politburo meeting took place in North Korea on April 9*, followed by a Plenary Meeting of the Central Committtee of the Party on April 10, directly preceding the meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly on April 11. The two most significant appointments according to Thae Yong Ho, a former North Korean diplomat who defected to South Korea from the DPRK embassy in London, were those of Choe Son Hui, and Kim Jae Ryong to State Affairs Committee positions. Choe Son Hui, a Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, is a well known figure in DPRK nuclear negotiations. She is a leading expert on American affairs in the Ministry. She is considered close to Kim Jong Un, personally and to be one of a small group of four women, who share Kim's trust.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 4.12)
Choe Son Hui shown taking notes from Kim Jong Un, immediately after the breakdown of the Hanoi talks, Feb. 27-28. She appears as the advocate for Kim in the immediate aftermath and the key spokesperson for North Korean foreign affairs in a difficult situation.

Choe is known as a biting critic of US diplomatic moves, in the past describing them as "gangster like," and "one sided." She was a bit more subdued in the immediate aftermath of the Hanoi summit failure and appeared with Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho in a damage control effort on behalf of North Korea. In an unprecedented fashion, she shared her personal views of Kim Jong Un's reaction to the US at Hanoi, saying that he was not familiar with US calculations in negotiations. She also stated that Kim Jong Un appeared to have lost the desire for further negotiations with the US, and would be making a decision in the future.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 4.12) "Clearly, in circumstances like this, the US thuggish stance, creates a dangerous situation." Choi Son Hui, March 15.

Choe is the only woman on the powerful State Affairs Committee. According to Thae's report on Top Ten News, she is among an exclusive group of four women in North Korea, by virtue of Kim's trust in her judgment. Looking, at Kim's policy speech before the 14th Supreme People's Assembly, one can't help but wonder if Choe wrote it or at least the latter portion concerning policy toward South Korea and the US. Kim's speech rehashed the differences between the US and North Korea but left open the possibility of another summit, if the US would change it's approach of maximum pressure, an attitude of undisguised hostility and one sided demands. The speech specifically referred to a recent US ICBM intercept exercise in the Pacific, and it's dogged adherence to maintaining sanctions. Kim indicated that he would be receptive to a letter from President Trump.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 4.12) Left to right: Ri Sol Ju, Kim's wife; Kim Yeo Jong, Kim's sister; Hyun Song Wol, entertainer, cultural director, and Kim confidante; and Choe Son Hui, Kim's newly elevated foreign affairs representative on the State Affairs Committee after Hanoi.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 4.12) Kim Jae Ryong (left side) appointed to State Affairs Committee.


Kim Jae Ryong, a less familiar figure is an economic technocrat hailing from Jagangdo, a region associated with economic mobilization during the famine and economic crisis of the 90s. Kim Jae Ryong is credited with the mobilization of military resources for ICBM development, particularly the launch site of Hwasong 14 ICBM in 2017. There is a body of state propaganda associated with the "arduous march" ( 고난의 행군 ) brought on by famine and the economic crisis in the nineties, and Kim Jae Ryong's appointment is regarded as symbolically linked to the "frontier spirit" campaign as a model for overcoming that crisis in a "life or death" struggle in Jagangdo. He is associated in particular with production in the military sector. His appointment is considered part of Kim Jong Un's current "overcome by one's own efforts" ( 자력 갱생 ) campaign to overcome the deleterious effects of US and UN sanctions on the North Korean economy. Kim Jae Ryong's newly appointed position on the State Affairs Committee is that of Prime Minister.

Thae feels that Kim Jae Ryong is the person to manage economic affairs in general in North Korea, because he knows where the resources are on in the national economy, including the military sector, and would best know how to mobilize those resources for civilian development objectives impeded by the sanctions environment. Therefore his appointment is seen as an effort to endure sanctions and wait out the US in a "time game." Ostensibly, in this manner North Korea would retain nuclear power status after the Hanoi summit failure rather than submitting to Washington's will, by means of a second "arduous march." Thae Yong Ho, felt that time was on the side of the US rather than North Korea. Also support by China is indispensable to Kim Jong Un. In his view, no third summit is in the cards for the US and North Korea in the immediate future, nor will any fourth summit take place with South Korea. South Korea appears empty handed as a result of US policy rejecting South Korean economic initiatives with the North as potential concessions in nuclear negotiations. Thae expressed his opinion that North Korean could probably endure through the end of the year. Coincidentally, Kim Jong Un, in his Supreme People's Assembly speech, gave the US an end of year window to resolve the stalemated negotiations:

"In any case, we have patience to the end of the year, and we await a daring decision by the US but to again obtain a good opportunity like last time will clearly be a difficult thing."

The Channel A News program with Thae's interview was broadcast on the 12th. The record of Kim's speech was published by KCNA on the 13th.

*Correction, the original of this story incorrectly reported the Polituro meeting as taking place on April 10th. It was the meeting of the Central Committee that took place on the 10th. See: https://www.nknews.org/2019/04/north-koreas-legislature-replaces-key-officials-in-first-meeting-since-election/

Moon to Meet the Hardliners before Trump

(Source- Arirang News, 04.09) Moon forced to meet the hardliners Pence, Pompeo and Bolton first.

He should have refused to meet the hardliners (강경파). Meeting them is an attempt to divert his second main objective after the Blue House had already deferred further public messaging about sanction exemptions for joint economic projects with North Korea as an incentive for further concessions from North Korea. The Blue House fall back position has been to emphasize a "top down" approach, which is exactly what the hardliners seek to avoid. A top down approach means getting these blockheads, who think they know more about the Korean situation than Moon Jae In, out of the way. The Deputy Chief National Security Adviser for the Blue House, Kim Hyun-chong, couldn't even get discussion of sanctions relief on the agenda for the summit meeting between Presidents Moon and Trump.

Anti- North Korean (Psychological) Operation "Free Choseon" Continues

Thae Yong-ho, former DPRK diplomat stationed in London, wrote a book called Cryptography From the Third-Floor, (3층 서기실의 암호), the title of which is a reference to the means by which instructions to DPRK personnel abroad are transmitted by the ruling clique in Pyongyang. (Disclosure- I haven't read the book). Tae Yong Ho claimed in an interview last summer, that the code was undecipherable. Now, in a curious twist, the Channel A News analysts suggest that a very similar code technique is being used by the group calling itself "Free Joseon," to give instructions to its members, who perhaps exist in North Korea.

Today Channel A News Top Ten reported an apparent numeric code having been uploaded to the spartan Free Joseon web site, on April 7, about dawn, (time zone not specified). There is no solid evidence yet that this "group" led by Adrian Hong Chang, (who is not a North Korean, but allegedly, a Yale educated Mexican-Korean, residing in the US) has any members who are North Koreans, in North Korea or otherwise. However, Hong has been associated with a network organized to assist North Korean defectors in the past. Allegedly, when Hong was escaping from the attack on the DPRK embassy building in Madrid, to deliver stolen material to the FBI, he left behind an Italian passport. According to a report in the South China Morning Post:

Spanish authorities have issued two international arrest warrants, one of them for Hong, over the raid.
According to a document released by Spain’s High Court, the group have been accused of burglary, false imprisonment, assault, document forgery, threats and robbery.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3003507/did-us-activist-mastermind-raid-north-korean-embassy

The uploading of the brief numeric code, it is speculated by Channel A News, portends ominous events to embarrass Kim Jong Un or otherwise throw North Korea into confusion, because of a vague warning of new actions to be taken in the future against North Korea by the Free Joseon group.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 04.09) Thae Yong-ho, "Only I was able to know the meaning of that code; Yet even when I heard it, I had to think about its meaning for a while." Video clip from previous Top Ten program in June 2018. Thae Yong-hoe former deputy ambassador of DPRK in London, on right. Left is Kim Jong-chul, Kim Jong Un's older brother, observed at an Eric Clapton concert in 2015, Thae had obtained the tickets on Pyongyang's instructions.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thae_Yong-ho

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 04.09) "In the silence in the lull before the storm, mysterious numbers." 8479, April 7, 2019, dawn, 4:56.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 04.09) This graphic gives a simple example of how the code might be used to determine it's meaning by those who know the reference book, used as a source. Another analyst suggested a changing cypher key could be used to decode the messages allegedly sent by Choellima Civil Defense on other occasions in the past.

Pompeo Tells Kim Jong Un What to Say

(Source- Channel A News - Saturday ranking 5.5) Pompeo says he hopes Kim Jong Un will announce on April 11th at the Supreme People's Assembly that he will denuclearize.

Not surprisingly the two South Korean national security and foreign policy experts on the program didn't expect that to happen. One of the experts felt that Pompeo was trying to elicit from Kim Jong Un a public commitment to denuclearization in the domestic political context of North Korea, that would provide greater evidence of Kim Jong Un's true intentions so he could gain American trust. According to most American oriented observers, the trust issue only works one way, it is the North only that can't be trusted. The Supreme People's Assembly meets on the same day that President Moon Jae In will be present in Washington D.C. for his summit with Donald Trump. Pompeo's recent negative comments about South Korean desires for joint economic initiatives with North Korea were yet another attempt to sandbag the upcoming US- South Korean summit ostensibly softened with Pompeo's hollow expression of empathy for how the Korean people feel and his patronizing condescension toward the Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa. This wasn't discussed in the Channel A News broadcast but was evident in other Korean language reports. Earlier in the program, the expert guests speculated that the failure at Hanoi was due to the incompetence of Kim Jong Un's translator and failures by Kim Yong Chol, and Kim Hyuk Chol. Both seem to have disappeared from view since the Hanoi debacle. Nothing is left to be desired on the US side apparently. The US offered nothing at Hanoi, but made unprecedented demands not reflected in the joint statement from Singapore.

(VOA News 4.6) Pompeo- US government policy is abundantly clear, economic sanctions and UN security council sanctions, will not be eased until the goal of full final denuclearization is achieved.

Channel A News is a conservative broadcaster hostile to the Moon administration, and harping on every error, big or small, his administration makes in an attempt to rehabilitate the conservatives who were devastated in the last off cycle elections and whose previous presidential leadership is now in prison for corruption and abuse of power. The conservative party response in the National Assembly has basically been to boycott all legislative initiatives from the Moon administration and to attack the foreign and defense ministries at legislative hearings whenever possible. The Channel A experts talked about a wrinkled South Korean flag (Tegukki) displayed at a meeting with Spanish diplomats as bringing shame on South Korea and placing Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa's leadership in question.

Gangwon Province Mountain Fires April 4-5.

(Source- MBC News Live Special Report 4.4) President Moon Jae In: "All available resources are being mobilized to bring the maximum response to this mountain fire."


MBC News live reports large fires spreading near Sokcho South Korea. (11:35 am EDT, April 4)

Kangwan province, Goseong county, mountain fire spreading and approaching the city of Sokcho. Some power outages are reported in Sokcho. (Two deaths were reported, one of which later found to have been in error.) The county and national emergency centers are being mobilized. Numerous buildings have been destroyed. The national emergency center reports it is having difficulty collecting information on damages. The fires are active and spreading.

Sokcho is located in the far northeast of South Korea and is slighty north of the 38th parallel, on the East Sea (Sea of Japan) coast.

Schools in the area have been ordered closed for 5 days. The fire has been labelled the Goseong mountain fire. It is currently 12:35 am Korean standard time.

This area is generally regarded as a resort area with its beaches and the beautiful Soraksan National Park not too far away. The city has a population of about 90,000.

(Source- MBC News Live Special Report 4.4)

MBC graphic showing estimated spread of fire north of Sokcho. Source MBC news now.

Flames show estimated ignition point in mountains. The red area depicts spread of fire north of the Sokcho municipal area (lower right). Port and East Sea/Sea of Japan coast right side.

Current wind speed being reported is to 27 mps, about 60 mph.

(Source- MBC News Live Special Report 4.4) Gangneung Okkae mountain fire--Okkae village citizens emergency evacuate.


Another mountain fire is reported near Gangneung south of Sokcho.

Near Okkae village (which I can't find on the map). Gangneung was the site of the Korean Winter Olympics in 2018. A 32km section of the East Sea highway is closed in both directions due to the fires. They are calling this one the Okkae mountain fire.

Over 3100 people have been evacuated due to the fires near Sokcho. Schools are being used to house evacuees. Over 2500 emergency responders have been mobilized. The fires are spreading rapidly and difficult to control because of dry weather and high winds. Fortunately an early report of a woman's death was mistaken. After daybreak, the wind died down somewhat in most places and allowed firefighters to get a good deal of the fires contained. 21 helicopters were committed to the Goseong mountain fires.

(Source- JTBC news podcast youtube, 4.5) Small sparks splashing from a telephone pole...huge path of fire engulfs Gangwon Province.


JTBC reports initial fire which approached Sokcho was ignited by electrical sparks from a telephone pole. Wind and extremely dry conditions did the rest. There is a video which is believed to show the ignition event of the initial mountain fire. While the report said the sparks emerged from a "switch" on the pole, a loose wire can be seen blowing in the wind.

Almost 18,000 personnel were mobilized to fight the fires, including thousands of military personnel to supplement first responders. 37 helicopters and 7000 personnel engaged the Okkae mountain fires near Gangneung. Now fire fighters are watching burned out areas and structures carefully to make sure fires do not reemerge.

Mountain fires at a third location, Injae, have been difficult to extinguish because of the steep mountainous terrain.

At this point, over a hundred structures are reported to have been totally destroyed while many others are damaged. Damage information is not complete. Only one death and one serious injury are reported. Over 200 people remained in evacuation shelters, while thousands of others left to survey their properties for damage.

Ahead of US-ROK Summit- US Pressure for Joint Military Exercises

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 04.03) North Korean anger---Fate of Max Thunder? General Craparotta, (joint) military exercises must continue. "South Korean marine forces are welcome to participate in RIMPAC exercises at any time." "You are invited to the Talisman Sabre exercises."

In view of the reduction and renaming of the traditional spring large scale US-ROK joint military exercises Key Resolve, and Foal Eagle, the US has invited Korean marine forces to participate in RIMPAC amphibious exercises and also invited South Korea to play a role in the Joint US Australian Talisman Sabre exercise. The new name for the reduced springtime exercises was Tong Maeng (alliance). The perspectives at the meeting early this week between the US acting Secretary of Defense, Patrick Shanahan, and the Korean Defense Minister, Jeong Kyeong-doo differed somewhat. The Korean side seemed focused on demonstrating in the necessary processes earlier agreed, the qualifications necessary for the transfer of operational wartime control of the Combined Forces Command from the United States to the South Korean military command. Tong Maeng provided the earliest opportunity to begin this process. On the other hand, the US is focused on the joint military exercises necessary to demonstrate the strength of the mutual commitments of the two allies by maintaining and improving operational readiness and military cooperation.

Public invitations by Commander, US Marine Corps Pacific, Lt. Gen. Lewis A. Craparotta, to the South Korean government to participate in RIMPAC and Talisman Sabre out of area joint military exercises, are viewed as ammunition to conservative elements in South Korea who question democratic party President Moon Jae In's commitment to the US Korean alliance and whether that commitment is somehow faltering in the face of his inititives toward North Korea. Those initiatives, among others, included the military agreements affecting military operations in and near the DMZ and Northern Limit Lines and also seeking sanctions waivers for joint North South economic projects. Among other measures tacitly agreed by the allies in the course of negotiations with North Korea related to denuclearization issues were the removal of so called "strategic assets" of the United States Armed Forces from the immediate vicinity of the Korean peninsula and the suspension or reduction of major joint military exercises during the pendency of US- North Korean denuclearization negotiations. The fate of major joint air exercises such as the upcoming Max Thunder seem uncertain at this point. One of the Top Ten analysts stated that the scale of Max Thunder would be reduced and the name would be changed. The RIMPAC and Talisman Sabre exercises represent an opportunity for South Korean forces to operate with US and other allied forces, in regions further from the Korean peninsula and should pose less of an arguable provocation to North Korea.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 04.03) Number One story: US to ROK, "Stand firmly on the side of the alliance." Sensitive differences between the lines. State Dept echos US calls for South Korean participation in US, Japan, Indo- Pacific alliance operations. US calls for a new southern defense strategy by South Korea (for the first time) to cooperate in a three way Indo-Pacific alliance with the US and Japan. Undoubtedly, any sort of direct military association with Japan is undesirable from the South Korean administration's perspective and has been a long time US foreign policy objective in Asia.

Nevertheless recently publicized comments in the Min Jok Kiri publication in North Korea, apparently questioned the recent US military operations in South Korea during the month of March which included combined exercises using the topography of South Korea, with its characteristic mountain and valley formations, to simulate what Sin In Kyun described in his program yesterday as "decapitation" operations. These operations allegedly simulating attacks on North Korea targets such as Yongbyun, or other nuclear targets, or command and control elements in Pyongyang. The exercise objective according to Shin was to increase proficiency in attacking North Korea, and to "send a message." Shin claimed he gained this understanding at a seminar in which Lt. Gen Craparotta, made a presentation associated with the 70th Anniversay of the foundation of the ROK Marine Corps. The air exercise in March actually involved a limited amount of various helicopters and Osprey aircraft (14 total and an estimated 400 personnel) and perhaps one C-130 aircraft using terrain following incursion tactics according to Shin. The North Korean MinJok Kiri commentary mocked the nature of reduced operations as "three penny" yet at the same time criticized the wisdom of such joint military exercises which nevertheless threaten, according to them, the progress in the lessening of military tensions on the peninsula.

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 04.03) The proffered strategy referred to in a Chinese (Han Ja) classical aphorism, Sacrifice your own flesh to break the adversary's bones.

Channel A News analysts today speculated that perhaps Moon Jae In would try to link further joint ROK military exercise cooperation with the US Indo-Pacific Command to US concessions to the South Korean desire to have some level of economic cooperation initiatives proceed with exemptions from US/UN sanctions on North Korea. This of course is directly tied to the US-ROK differences over the so called "small deal- big deal" dispute in the negotiating approach taken by the US to North Korea at Hanoi. The "small deal- big deal" phrase is used as short hand for the fundamental difference in views between the Moon administration and the US on the proper procedural approach to negotiating with North Korea, namely, the all or nothing approach favored by the hardliners like John Bolton in the US, revealed in full play at Hanoi, or the step by step, phased approach to build trust between the parties with mutual simultaneous concessions. One analyst on the program suggested President Moon hoped that a "medium deal," could be brokered.