The US and its allies, Japan and South Korea, had publicly discussed "preemptive attacks" on North Korea, whether "de-capitation attacks" or "pre-emptive strikes on missile bases." So the North Korean launch of two ICBMs in November represented an expected continuation of the North Korean response. The discussion of this essentially US strategy by the right in South Korea has been ongoing for some time. South Korean president Yoon Seok-yeol appears to have adopted it. Prime Minister Kishida has promoted a "counterstrike" policy which is essentially the same thing but the wording is different because the notion of pre-emptive strike is politically unpalatable in Japan.
The return of so called strategic US assets to the South Korean region, featured B1-b strategic bombers, in operation Vigilant Storm in late October and early November and fighter aircraft from both South Korea and the US in major air operations involving hundreds of aircraft. Earlier in September, aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its associated strike group visited Pusan, South Korea ahead of joint exercises. On Sep 8 Kim Jong-un adopted a policy of an automatic nuclear response, if the leadership of North Korea was subjected to an attack. This announcement by the North's leader was preceded by US-ROK joint military exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield, described as the largest in five years in an August 29th report of Stars and Stripes. The ROK air force exercised jointly with two B-52s and 4 F-22s on December 20. The return of US strategic assets including strategic bombers and the USS Ronald Reagan to South Korea after a five year hiatus are a violation of the understandings reached at the Singapore Summit. Likewise North Korean, ICBM testing is a violation of that summit agreement as well. North Korean ballistic missile tests and nuclear tests are generally proscribed by UN resolutions 1874 (12 June 2009) and 2387 (22 December 2017).
North Korea regards the return of large joint US-ROK military exercises as a threat and preparation for war. It has launched an unprecedented number of ballistic missile tests so far this year. Three of these launches were ICBMs, one in March, and two in November. The earlier November ICBM launch was considered a failure. The North Korean missile program is regarded as cost effective compensation by North Korea to offset its inferiority in conventional military capability.
A South Korean defector group launched helium balloons across the DMZ on July 6 and October 2, despite the new law passed during the Moon Jae-in administration prohibiting such activities. The Moon administration was criticized for curtailing "free speech," by conservatives, including Yoon Seok-yeol supporters and VOA Korea. The criticism is absurd as pointed out in prior posts. No one has the right to shout fire in a theater or provoke the North Korean or UNC guards at the Joint Security Area. No one has the right to fly things over the DMZ or its continuation, the Northern Limit Line (NLL) into the East or West Seas. As part of the military agreements between North and South Korea, loudspeaker propaganda from the North had stopped as well. The North Koreans felt that not only were the prohibited balloon flights regime change propaganda, but that they also represented a biological threat (covid-19). Ironically, at least one expert commentator has noted that the five un-intercepted drone flights this week from North Korea over the DMZ into South Korean airspace potentially represented a" weapons of mass destruction" threat, in addition to their apparent mission of reconnaissance, and harassment.
The Unification Ministry had requested the defector group to stop their balloon activities before the October 2 event. This is somewhat ironic considering the minister's "free speech" position expressed before the Yoon Seok-yeol administration took office.
On October 4, a North Korean intermediate range ballistic missile was fired into space over Japan and landed in the Northern Pacific. The South responded with a Hyunmoo II ballistic missle firing, which failed catastrophically and frightened the public near the scene of the accident. The US and South Korea each fired two ATACSMs; one of the South Korean launches failed.
When three North Korean missiles were fired across the MDL into the East Sea on November 2, this was a violation of the military agreement between North and South Korea which established buffer zones where military exercises are prohibited. A KF-16 intended to respond by firing 2 SPICE missiles, after the first firing, the aircraft returned to base, for low fuel reasons. A sortie by an F-15K, planned to launch two SLAM ER missiles. Only one missile fired, the other missile was defective. A second F-15K in reserve fired the second SLAM missile.
So there has been a considerable escalation in military and propaganda activities in the tense military zones in and around the Korean peninsula, which has led up to the December 26 launch of 5 (unmanned) drones by North Korea into South Korean territory. A KA-1 light attack aircraft taking off from Wonju as part of the ineffective South Korean military response crashed with both crew members surviving. As the drones meandered around the area south of the DMZ near Paju and Gangwha island, and one ventured over northern Seoul, the public was left uniformed about what was happening for several hours resulting in much social media speculation as to whether the south was under attack. This also occurred in the immediate aftermath of the Hyunmoo II failure and explosion in early October.
As late as November 10, the Unification Minister submitted a statement to the South Korean Supreme Constitutional Court that restrictions on balloon flights were a violation of "free speech."
The unification minister also stressed that terms in the law, including those banning any acts at border areas that could trigger "harm to the lives and bodies of people and grave dangers," is so vaguely worded that the law could be enforced "arbitrarily."
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221110004400315
Earlier in late September a spokesperson for the ministry had asked the defector groups to refrain from such acts:
SEOUL, Sept. 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry urged local activist groups to refrain from sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border amid lingering concerns that such a campaign could lead to the escalation of tensions on the peninsula.
The ministry also made clear Seoul will take a "strong and stern" measure in case Pyongyang carries out its threat of retaliatory action against those who seek to spread those leaflets, usually using large-scale balloons.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220923003951325
During the Hoguk training exercise, South Korea conducted artillery exercises near Paju, and the US fired tactical missiles in Cheoran county, also close to the DMZ. If not violations of the Sep 2018 military agreement between North and South Korea, they violated the spirit of the agreement, and were part of a pattern of escalatory military moves by North and South Korea and and the United States. S.Korea begins major Hoguk field training exercise amid N.Korea’s saber-rattling, Oct. 17 Korea Herald, https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20221017000637
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