Martyanov's analysis on Two Major Theater Wars*

Generally I'm a fan of Andrei Martyanov's analysis. Agree with his assessment of the "leadership" of the government in DC. In his presentation, I only take exception to his dismissive analysis of the Chinese military. I think it's somewhat ethnocentric. It's the PLAN which is a bit different from the western concept of navy. That orientation implies the historical context of its role and development. The whole concept of struggle to offset the historical forces of imperialism in CCP doctrine puts this contest over Taiwan in a longer term perspective which frankly Americans don't understand. They dismiss the record of imperial aggression against China as ideological cant. It wouldn't be the first time the US and it allies blundered into another Asian debacle.

I follow others who are experts on the Chinese armed forces, and while they admit there are some weak points in the PLAN relative to the US Navy, it is the US armed forces who are not prepared to fight China over Taiwan. I don't think that either side wants war. Nevertheless, given the humiliating history of gunboat diplomacy in East Asia, China could be easily provoked to war over Taiwan. In that event, Chinese commitment would be higher than that of the US, whose policy views on East Asia are based more on custom and past practice than reality. It's not surprising that Martyanov also has this blind spot. After the Russian revolution, Russia saw itself almost in a big brother role to emerging Chinese military organization.

Other experts who acknowledge certain US advantages also recognize the US disadvantages. The Chinese will quickly compensate for any weaknesses and bring their strengths to bear to overcome them. Any conflict that takes place in the Chinees littoral around Taiwan or elsewhere in close proximity to China allows it to respond in a way that would gravely damage US and allied forces and resources. (For this reason I fear the US would entertain use of nuclear weapons sooner or later to "end the conflict" as it has in the past ).

Former Admiral Bill Owens has said there is no military solution to Taiwan. Other experts say sooner or later the US would likely be defeated in a conflict over Taiwan, or at a minimum sustain serious military losses. Chinese strategic depth, resourcefulness, and organizational skills should not be treated dismissively so close to its shores. Yes, the Chinese PLAN is not yet optimally ready. Yet it has enough resources and military assets to cause widespread damage in the theater which will shock Americans out of their China fantasy. The outcome of any such conflict cannot be easily foretold.

*Andrei Martyanov - Weekend Improv, youtube 8.6;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgJ8Q9RTmzM&t=541s