Reports were released by the US Navy on April 26 that the USS Wasp LHD and USS Stethem DDG, were to be replaced by USS America LHA, and USS New Orleans LPD as forward deployed ships in the far east. They will be based in Sasebo, Japan. In his May 1 Daily Defense podcast, Sin In Kyun has incorporated this information into his ongoing dialogue about how these (increased) amphibious force capabilities could be used to carry out a decapitation mission against Kim Jong Un in the not too distant future. According to Shin's analysis the amphibious group of the 7th Fleet could independently carry out an air assault of 700 troops, and a sea landing of 2300 more combat troops. Missions possible according to Shin are attacks on the Communist Party Headquarters building in Pyongyang ostensibly to capture or kill Kim Jong Un, attacks on Yongbyun nuclear facility and the like. Specific locations mentioned during the broadcast included Chonju, south of Sinuiju, where a famous battle took place in October 1950 during the Korean conflict. Other locations mentioned were Nampo and Pyongyang. Not too long after the battle of Chonju, the UN forces suffered a disastrous defeat at the hands of the Chinese at Chosin Reservoir. Shin didn't mention the latter.
Interestingly, the theoretical scenario sketch by Shin, shows the amphibious attack staged from the West Sea. The USS Ronald Reagan CVN, would participate in the attack, initially in an air defense suppression role. The airborne ground forces would attack the target in Pyongyang. F-35s from the two carriers would establish air superiority and air support. Amphibious landing forces would secure beach landing zones and then secure a path for withdrawal of captured personnel or weapons. Shin indicated he ran out of room on the graphic so the Reagan is shown in the East Sea.
Several questions arise in connection with Shin's scenario. Namely, how do US forces ascertain the location of Kim Jong Un? Second how do they move into position without being detected crossing the maritime northern limit line and the extended buffer zones around them? Third how do they succeed in obtaining permission from South Korean political and military leadership to carry out such a risky attack? Fourth, how do they avoid the risk of a nuclear retaliation against US targets in South Korea and the region? How do they avoid the risk of a conventional retaliation against urban areas such as Seoul? Fifth, what preparations have they made for a Chinese military intervention when their security interests inside North Korea are jeopardized? It should be noted that even right wing experts on the situation in North Korea, such as Victor Cha, and Thae Yong Ho, have warned against preemptive military attack on North Korea as a means to resolve the denuclearization stalemate in the past.
Shin describes the relative isolation of Kim without much expectation of help from Russia, and China apparently turning away from North Korea recently. He claimed that most North Koreans are so preoccupied with their own survival at this point they would be focused on their own affairs. He emphasized at the programs outset that John Bolton seemed to think the military option was the only option and felt this way for years. Shin relied on the April 26 article in New Yorker about Bolton. He felt Pompeo's view wasn't much different. In a separate broadcast, Shin noted differences between South Korea and the US concerning negotiations which were depicted in a statement attributed to US Ambassador Harris to the effect that he didn't have any information on what a step by step negotiating process was. A flippant remark to say the least. Stephen Biegun will be in Seoul soon, to meet the "working group," allegedly to discuss possible approaches to reopen negotiations with Kim.
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