Postulated Role of Special Forces in Japan

South Korean Channel A News Top Ten podcast on youtube posted today explores the role of US special forces alleged to be exercising in Japan "some days earlier." The exercise they described allegedly involved Osprey aircraft, and some number of C-130J's, "Superhercules," aircraft operating at night.

The graphics are fairly self explanatory. The implication, without explictly saying so, is that North Korea's accusation in the August 26 Rodong Sinmun that US forces in Japan, were practicing for incursions into North Korea has an element of truth to it. The program says the exercise was confirmed and suggested the forces could be used to enter North Korea and remove nuclear weapons.


These Channel A News reports tend to disappear from their youtube channel in one day or so.

Source:

채널A 뉴스TOP10
Published on Aug 30, 2018 美 특수부대, 비밀리에 '야간 침투훈련' 실시했다

Trump's letter: Is Pompeo Getting the Tillerson Treatment?

There is a report that Trump sent his own letter to Kim Aug 12 asking Kim to take measures give up his nuclear warheads, first. It set aside those aspects of the North Korean position reflected in the Singapore declaration discussed in the links below. The report came from Channel A News Top Ten earlier today. Pompeo was reportedly, according to another account trying to work something around the dispute with North Korea, when Trump sent his letter to Kim, via Panmunjum. According to the Channel A "exclusive" report, it was Trump's letter which prompted the "hostile" response from Kim Yong Chol, the Vice Chairman. The presence of the diplomatic working group for the US at the White House meeting, when the "hostile letter" was discussed, during which the President cancelled Pompeo's mission to Pyongyang suggests that the return letter may have come back the same route.

An analysis of the current deadlock with North Korea was published in the Atlantic.com recently based upon a discussion with South Korea's top policy analyst. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/north-korea-war-declaration/568603/

I wrote about the so called "hostile letter" here yesterday.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/113322017

It may be that Pompeo is getting the Tillerson treatment at this point. The US ambassador to Seoul is a career military person, the recent commander of PACOM, Admiral Harry Harris. Initially, there was consternation with respect to the suspension of the joint US South Korean exercises in the US military. Secretary of Defense Mattis follows up with the not so veiled threat to resume joint exercises with South Korea saying he'll wait for the diplomats to play their role and see what happens. From the news in South Korea this morning, and their response, I doubt if they were consulted about this. While the MSM discusses Mattis' remarks in terms of large military exercises next year, the large Vigilant Ace joint exercise in South Korea normally takes place in the first fiscal quarter, namely in the fall. It last took place in December 2017.

Estimated Contents of Kim Yong Chol's "Hostile Letter," to Donald Trump

Why won't you give a declaration of the end of the Korean War?

Why are you engaged in joint military exercises with Japan?

Why are you frequently increasing anti-North Korea sanctions?

Donald Trump's sudden cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's fourth visit to Pyongyang was reportedly based upon a "hostile" letter the President had received from North Korea's Vice Chairman, Kim Yong Chol. The contents of the letter have not been disclosed to the public. In today's new youtube podcast, South Korea's Channel A Top Ten News program analysts did an estimate of what those contents might be. The above is what appears to be the likely thrust of the letter, given prior statements of their representatives, and articles printed in North Korea's Oori Minjok Kiri and Rodong Sinmun, as recently as August 26.

In case this seems aberrant to some readers, I will post the relevant portion of the Singapore Summit that the North considers most important:

...Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1) The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2)The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

The US of course is most interested in parts (3) and (4).

3) Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4) The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

There are other measures short of a declaration of the end of the Korean War at the current time that can be taken by the US, but the US cannot negotiate the first two pledges it made in the Singapore summit because of the intense domestic opposition in the US institutionally, and politically. So Trump, in an weakened political position, simply put everything off, blaming China, for his teams inability to consider any further reciprocal trust building moves to reassure North Koreans that it is in their interest to turn over a list of inventories of nuclear materials, weapons, and facilities, allow inspectors into their territory, and schedule the removal or destruction of those weapons, materials, and facilities. The North Koreans are making it clear that they are not going to be coerced into denuclearization.

The Channel A News Top Ten program went on to consider whether China's Xi Jin Ping would go to Pyongyang for the September 9, celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state and what weapons would be displayed during the standing review of the military parade. Will ICBMs or other nuclear delivery systems be displayed?

North Koreans Complain about US Military Operations after Pompeo visit is cancelled

Reuters reported today on an article appearing in the North Korean Rodong Sinmun newspaper criticizing US hypocrisy, smiling at the negotiating table while planning attacks on North Korea reported in South Korea media:

North Korea newspaper blasts 'double-dealing' U.S. after Pompeo's trip canceled

North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper said U.S. special units based in Japan were staging an air drill aimed at “the infiltration into Pyongyang”, citing a South Korean media outlet.

“Such acts prove that the U.S. is hatching a criminal plot to unleash a war against the DPRK and commit a crime which deserves merciless divine punishment in case the U.S. fails in the scenario of the DPRK’s unjust and brigandish denuclearisation first,” the paper said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/north-korea-newspaper-blasts-double-dealing-u-s-after-pompeos-trip-canceled-idUSKCN1LB0BY


This is interesting. This article probably refers to the South Korean Channel A Top Ten News broadcast on or about August 14, 2018. I took some screen shots of the graphics but didn't write about it. North Korea apparently got the message but decided not to write about it, till now.

Complaints about "gunboat diplomacy" are not all that inflammatory coming as it does from North Korea. Perhaps one could question why Channel A published the story, which I saw on youtube on August 14. The program seemed exaggerated in more than one dimension and it was unduly provocative, perhaps constructed or embellished by whoever provided the information to the producers. Nevertheless, KCNA published their reaction today in Ro Dong Sin Moon in a somewhat typical fashion. Had Pompeo's diplomatic mission to Pyongyang not been cancelled, the North Korean reaction to the exercises probably would have stayed in the file drawer.

Here are some graphics from the Channel A Top Ten Program:

This is from another recent Channel A Top Ten program with a similar impact on North Korea:

Undercurrent of Anti-Xi hostility in Pyongyang?

"Wow suddenly he's becoming close to us"...Ordinary North Koreans have a feeling against Xi Jin Ping?

Participating in sanctions against us?

Swallow something when it's sweet, spit it out when it's bitter, two faced demeanor...his intentions are showing.

China is not at all on North Korea's side.
Two faced character.

Channel A Top Ten News reported that this commentary was given by anonymous sources in Pyongyang in anticipation of Xi's 9.9 summit visit to Pyongyang. The anecdotal information suggests Xi is still supporting the sanctions, despite US reports that he's effectively undermining the negotiations with the US. I've commented before on the US opportunity to take advantage of traditional North Korean suspicion of Chinese motives. I would be looking closely at the development of the so called "new" Sinuiju-Dandong bridge on the Northwest border of China and North Korea as well as ship movements to determine the actual intentions of China regarding sanctions. The recent US secondary sanctions in August seemed to
have been mostly against Russia. The increased Chinese tourist traffic after the summit meetings of Kim and Xi in China seems to be exploitation of unsanctioned economic activities rather than sanctions violations.

Pompeo not going to Pyongyang "at this time."

Channel A Top Ten News graphic Youtube Aug 23. "Big Brother" invited to the 9.9 commemoration, which weapons will North Korea publicly display?


It makes no sense for Pompeo to go this week because (1) he has nothing to offer on counts 1 and 2 of the Singapore declaration and (2) why go before Xi and Moon have their respective summits with Kim?

After continuously poking Xi in the eye, not just on trade but also diplomatically, with the stupid remarks concerning El Salvador and China, he could wait and see if Xi will encourage Kim to go forward on the negotiations anyway, wait and see if Kim rolls out ICBMs during the parade (perhaps in Xi's presence on Sept 9), or how China intends to handle this. Moon can then find out at his summit if it takes place whether there is an opportunity for any opening with Pyongyang, and convey the message to Washington, whatever it is for better or worse. The timing of President Moon's visit could be important. Will he get to see Kim before the UN General Assembly convenes on Sep. 18? If he does, some meaningful negotiations or gestures could possibly take place there.

If China, Russia, North Korea, and, for that matter, South Korea, are waiting for the US to make a small gesture on the "peace regime" on the peninsula, or make some moves toward normalization of relations, it can't happen due to Trump's impaired and weakened position domestically in the US. The US is offering nothing, is focused on denuclearization only, and for that reason, it is likely that Kim wouldn't even talk to Pompeo at all even if he did go to Pyongyang. Pompeo had nothing to offer so he appointed a special envoy to work on the problem with a view to a later meeting. Korean sources briefed on what happened before Trump's tweets canceling the Pompeo mission to Pyongyang say Pompeo and Andrew Kim were there in the White House before the first tweet went out, and Pompeo was involved in drafting it. Bolton was on the phone conferencing with them according to South Korean sources.

Update Aug. 26:

Trump- if you're going to come back empty handed, don't go. TV Chosun news reporting on the Wash Post story. My version of this would be, if you're going empty handed don't go. Of course, the picture shows Ambassador Sang Kim was also at the meeting confirming earlier reports.

China and Russia a hindrance to US-North Korean Negotiations?

Channel A news is reporting that it is almost assured that Xi Jin Ping will make a state visit to Pyongyang for the September 9, military review and celebrations to commemorate the founding of the North Korean state on its 70th Anniversary. The South Korean analysts discussed whether North Korean ICBMs, such as the Hwasong 15, were likely to be displayed under the circumstances and felt it was an unlikely to happen as an unnecessary provocation to the US. Simultaneously, the Chinese and Russians will be engaged in "unprecedented" joint military exercises.

Additional sanctions against the Chinese and Russia have been implemented by the US Treasury department three times this month for violations of UN sanctions against North Korea. South Korea's Channel A Top Ten News podcast depicts the relationship among the the four states in this graphic:

"Sticking together North Korea, China, and Russia, an obstacle to denuclearization." The graphic refers to Xi's upcoming first visit to North Korea, and the planned joint military exercises with Russia and President Trump's frustration related to unsatisfied US denuclearization demands.

Additionally, South Korea has been unable to get US approval of sanctions waivers to set up a North South liaison office in Kaesong North Korea. The waivers were requested by South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa and concern purchase and delivery to the Kaesong facility of fuel and electrical generators. The continuing problem with the stalemate between the US and North Korea, and the resultant sanctions barriers to North South cooperation are resulting in increased tensions on all sides. Here's another Channel A Top Ten news graphic showing the plausible message to South Korea concerning sanctions:

So Russian ships entering North Korean ports and delivering fuel are referred to in the graphic, and then the latest request by South Korea to send fuel and electrical generators to Kaesong regarded similarly by the US as a lit fuse. The requested sanctions waiver by South Korea for purposes of facilitating communications between the two states appear to be valued in the hundreds of thousands of dollars range. There is definitely increased tension between the two allies as a result of lack of progress in the negotiations outlined at the Singapore summit.