October Surprise in North Korea?

“북미정상회담 성사되려면 이번엔 트럼프가 평양으로 가야…김정은 체면 세워줄 필요” - 정세현,*
* “For the North Korea-U.S. summit to happen, Trump must go to Pyongyang this time… Need to save face for Kim Jong-un” - Jeong Se-hyeon

Jeong Se-hyun is a former Unification Minister of South Korea under two presidents from 2002-2004, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. He is a remarkable person and brilliant political observer. He served as an adviser to the Moon Jae-in administration. President Moon of course was the "pacemaker" opening doors in Pyongyang enabling Trump 1's abortive but attention getting overtures to Kim Jong-un in Singapore, Hanoi and the later meaningless sequel at Panmunjom.

The US president is in deep political trouble recently and the US has lost more international stature under his "leadership," so he's looking for some world attention getting spectacular to compensate all the ill fortune he's invited in an electoral sense in face of the upcoming election. Jeong is of the opinion that it's entirely possible that Trump may go to Pyongyang during the middle ten day period in October. I emphasize that all this is speculation. Jeong's reading the tea leaves. Jeong in a South Korean MBC Radio current events interview (video on youtube) outlines a step by step procedure for normalizing relations with North Korea which is quite elaborate, requires professional diplomats (something Trump doesn't have) and a lot of planning and attention. Nevertheless he analyzes nuances in Trump's public statements, and those of Kim Yeo-jong, Kim's sister, the NK missile launches, etc., and in spite of the apparent rejection that appears on the face of things, how the doorway is still open, in his estimation.

I'm putting the Jeong's first interview video here. I want everyone to see Jeong because he is a historic figure in his own right, playing a role opening the door as it was to North Korea with 3 former South Korean presidents. I'm posting it for those who monitor such things. The youtube English translation was poor, it took me about an hour to make sure I understood it. I kept switching the subtitles back and forth, and checking the dictionary. Those who are interested can see I'm not making this up.



Jeong believes that Trump will go to Pyongyang and then to the Kalma peninsula in Wonsan on the East Sea. Kim will not go to Donald, Donald will go to Kim. Jeong believes in order to avoid the anti Trump, anti Kim, political headwinds, the arrangements could be made behind the scenes through a third party country intermediary, like Sweden or other amenable trustworthy player. There's likely not enough time to set up the institutional structures necessary for actually accomplishing the steps to reduce military tensions, set up contact missions in the respective countries, with a view towards normalizing relations and seeking a "peace regime" on the peninsula. For a first step, Trump could disclose some of these measures at the meeting in October, which would have to include some relaxation of the sanctions regime, which has lost it's impact anyway because of Russian and Chinese relations with North Korea.

I knew something was up Aug 12. If they need any help they should call Jeong.


*Kim was humiliated publicly in front of the entire world by Trump at Hanoi, in Feb 2019, so he's not going anywhere to meet President Trump. Trump has to come to him. Western observer's usually say critically, Trump is increasing Kim's prestige. Jeong suggests Kim's travel arrangements to meet Trump in Singapore and later in Hanoi were themselves humiliating or at least suggested he was the supplicant.


Update, I wrote the commentary above on 8.21 EST. This morning I saw this shorter JTBC youtube video interview of Jeong below on the same subject 8.22.

The JTBC video is better for foreign audiences, more to the point on the possible October surprise, in their interview with Jeong. The google English translation quality is better up to the 7:20 mark when it says erroneously Japanese Korean agreement on July 27, 1953, instead of Armistice which was the correct translation. Jeong notes some South Korean general didn't show at the armistice site to sign the Armistice on behalf of South Korea, which the North Koreans have argued deprives them of standing. There is some confusion with pronouns after that as well because AI doesn't do context. Usually, gender and number of pronouns is understood rather than expressed in a Korean conversation. AI consistently fails at this.

Jeong describes the preliminary basic steps to getting a summit with North Korea rather than the mechanism for accomplishing the objectives of negotiations. This interview leaves aside the necessary administrative steps and ground work. This is something we know the US is reluctant to undertake historically.