Thursday, August 23, 2018

China and Russia a hindrance to US-North Korean Negotiations?

Channel A news is reporting that it is almost assured that Xi Jin Ping will make a state visit to Pyongyang for the September 9, military review and celebrations to commemorate the founding of the North Korean state on its 70th Anniversary. The South Korean analysts discussed whether North Korean ICBMs, such as the Hwasong 15, were likely to be displayed under the circumstances and felt it was an unlikely to happen as an unnecessary provocation to the US. Simultaneously, the Chinese and Russians will be engaged in "unprecedented" joint military exercises.

Additional sanctions against the Chinese and Russia have been implemented by the US Treasury department three times this month for violations of UN sanctions against North Korea. South Korea's Channel A Top Ten News podcast depicts the relationship among the the four states in this graphic:


"Sticking together North Korea, China, and Russia, an obstacle to denuclearization." The graphic refers to Xi's upcoming first visit to North Korea, and the planned joint military exercises with Russia and President Trump's frustration related to unsatisfied US denuclearization demands.

Additionally, South Korea has been unable to get US approval of sanctions waivers to set up a North South liaison office in Kaesong North Korea. The waivers were requested by South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa and concern purchase and delivery to the Kaesong facility of fuel and electrical generators. The continuing problem with the stalemate between the US and North Korea, and the resultant sanctions barriers to North South cooperation are resulting in increased tensions on all sides. Here's another Channel A Top Ten news graphic showing the plausible message to South Korea concerning sanctions:


So Russian ships entering North Korean ports and delivering fuel are referred to in the graphic, and then the latest request by South Korea to send fuel and electrical generators to Kaesong regarded similarly by the US as a lit fuse. The requested sanctions waiver by South Korea for purposes of facilitating communications between the two states appear to be valued in the hundreds of thousands of dollars range. There is definitely increased tension between the two allies as a result of lack of progress in the negotiations outlined at the Singapore summit.


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