Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Estimated Contents of Kim Yong Chol's "Hostile Letter," to Donald Trump


Why won't you give a declaration of the end of the Korean War?

Why are you engaged in joint military exercises with Japan?

Why are you frequently increasing anti-North Korea sanctions?

Donald Trump's sudden cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's fourth visit to Pyongyang was reportedly based upon a "hostile" letter the President had received from North Korea's Vice Chairman, Kim Yong Chol. The contents of the letter have not been disclosed to the public. In today's new youtube podcast, South Korea's Channel A Top Ten News program analysts did an estimate of what those contents might be. The above is what appears to be the likely thrust of the letter, given prior statements of their representatives, and articles printed in North Korea's Oori Minjok Kiri and Rodong Sinmun, as recently as August 26.

In case this seems aberrant to some readers, I will post the relevant portion of the Singapore Summit that the North considers most important:

...Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1) The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2)The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

The US of course is most interested in parts (3) and (4).

3) Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4) The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

There are other measures short of a declaration of the end of the Korean War at the current time that can be taken by the US, but the US cannot negotiate the first two pledges it made in the Singapore summit because of the intense domestic opposition in the US institutionally, and politically. So Trump, in an weakened political position, simply put everything off, blaming China, for his teams inability to consider any further reciprocal trust building moves to reassure North Koreans that it is in their interest to turn over a list of inventories of nuclear materials, weapons, and facilities, allow inspectors into their territory, and schedule the removal or destruction of those weapons, materials, and facilities. The North Koreans are making it clear that they are not going to be coerced into denuclearization.

The Channel A News Top Ten program went on to consider whether China's Xi Jin Ping would go to Pyongyang for the September 9, celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state and what weapons would be displayed during the standing review of the military parade. Will ICBMs or other nuclear delivery systems be displayed?

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