Power Politics in Northeast Asia

Some unsourced Korean language youtube up today claims that Kim is afraid of Xi. Uncle, Jang Song-thaek, whom Kim Jong Un had killed after he came into power was allegedly the head of the pro-China faction inside the communist party in North Korea. There was a purge where a lot of the chin chung (pro-China) people were eliminated from the party about four years ago. Just recently after Kim's summits with Xi, some former members of this network have been rehabilitated and restored to positions of power. Kim's renewed emphasis on economic development and the inspection tour he was on recently to support this purpose are related to the former China faction and his new relationship with Xi.

Many Americans assume that Xi is the power behind Kim, but Kim strongly resisted Chinese influence until very recently. The questionable portion of the story, which has been seen earlier in Japanese sourced material was that China had agreed to "carve up" North Korea, basically with the US and Russia. While I'm very skeptical that China made some kind of Ribbentrop-Molotov pact with the US and Russia, there is little question that China is prepared to occupy the better part of North Korea if it has to. I don't think that this is consistent with several of Xi's so called 10 principles, but under the principle of defending Chinese interests he would if the other principles of "win win" and peaceful international order fail.

I had an argument with someone about this when I said that Kim had a jaundiced view of Xi, and China generally. People assume that it's true that Kim and China are as close as "lips and teeth." Ties to China were assessed to be a source of corruption and perhaps political sedition. This is an instinctive xenophobia about being "absorbed" by the giant powerful neighbor.

This "rumor" going around about Kim's "great fear" about Xi is based upon a characterization of Xi as a bad character really, ruthless and powerful, who has "eliminated" many rivals to get where he is, as "chairman for life" of the Chinese Communist Party. The characterization of Xi as a Mao reincarnation is the tell that the story is made up, but like any good disinformation it has an underlying grain of truth.

The point really is this- One doesn't need to create a propaganda campaign to drive a wedge between Kim and Xi, there aleady is one, and it's based upon a pattern of Korean Chinese relations a few thousand years old. The way Korean states traditionally handle a situation like this is to balance off Chinese influence with the power of a third state. Chinese power is invited in only to offset existential aggression from outside of the threatened regime.

The antipathy to Japan doesn't require any explanation. The US is the only great power North Korea can go to in historical terms to offset the great Chinese leverage on North Korea presently and the longer term Japanese threat. It's probable that Trump hatred, the usual US war party interests, and general myopia about change, make this new approach to North Korea unacceptable to the US "establishment." This, in spite of the fact, that this is exactly what the language in the Singapore declaration requires. But the notion that North Korea is going to be coerced into complete denuclearization by the US is not reflective of political reality in the region. What is being sought is a fair and equitable negotiating process to manage the threat to peace in the area. If Washington won't sign a peace agreement, then China isn't going to force North Korea to denuclearize, they will just be satisfied with the ongoing "freeze for a freeze."