Postulated Role of Special Forces in Japan

South Korean Channel A News Top Ten podcast on youtube posted today explores the role of US special forces alleged to be exercising in Japan "some days earlier." The exercise they described allegedly involved Osprey aircraft, and some number of C-130J's, "Superhercules," aircraft operating at night.

The graphics are fairly self explanatory. The implication, without explictly saying so, is that North Korea's accusation in the August 26 Rodong Sinmun that US forces in Japan, were practicing for incursions into North Korea has an element of truth to it. The program says the exercise was confirmed and suggested the forces could be used to enter North Korea and remove nuclear weapons.


These Channel A News reports tend to disappear from their youtube channel in one day or so.

Source:

채널A 뉴스TOP10
Published on Aug 30, 2018 美 특수부대, 비밀리에 '야간 침투훈련' 실시했다

Trump's letter: Is Pompeo Getting the Tillerson Treatment?

There is a report that Trump sent his own letter to Kim Aug 12 asking Kim to take measures give up his nuclear warheads, first. It set aside those aspects of the North Korean position reflected in the Singapore declaration discussed in the links below. The report came from Channel A News Top Ten earlier today. Pompeo was reportedly, according to another account trying to work something around the dispute with North Korea, when Trump sent his letter to Kim, via Panmunjum. According to the Channel A "exclusive" report, it was Trump's letter which prompted the "hostile" response from Kim Yong Chol, the Vice Chairman. The presence of the diplomatic working group for the US at the White House meeting, when the "hostile letter" was discussed, during which the President cancelled Pompeo's mission to Pyongyang suggests that the return letter may have come back the same route.

An analysis of the current deadlock with North Korea was published in the Atlantic.com recently based upon a discussion with South Korea's top policy analyst. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/north-korea-war-declaration/568603/

I wrote about the so called "hostile letter" here yesterday.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/113322017

It may be that Pompeo is getting the Tillerson treatment at this point. The US ambassador to Seoul is a career military person, the recent commander of PACOM, Admiral Harry Harris. Initially, there was consternation with respect to the suspension of the joint US South Korean exercises in the US military. Secretary of Defense Mattis follows up with the not so veiled threat to resume joint exercises with South Korea saying he'll wait for the diplomats to play their role and see what happens. From the news in South Korea this morning, and their response, I doubt if they were consulted about this. While the MSM discusses Mattis' remarks in terms of large military exercises next year, the large Vigilant Ace joint exercise in South Korea normally takes place in the first fiscal quarter, namely in the fall. It last took place in December 2017.

Estimated Contents of Kim Yong Chol's "Hostile Letter," to Donald Trump

Why won't you give a declaration of the end of the Korean War?

Why are you engaged in joint military exercises with Japan?

Why are you frequently increasing anti-North Korea sanctions?

Donald Trump's sudden cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's fourth visit to Pyongyang was reportedly based upon a "hostile" letter the President had received from North Korea's Vice Chairman, Kim Yong Chol. The contents of the letter have not been disclosed to the public. In today's new youtube podcast, South Korea's Channel A Top Ten News program analysts did an estimate of what those contents might be. The above is what appears to be the likely thrust of the letter, given prior statements of their representatives, and articles printed in North Korea's Oori Minjok Kiri and Rodong Sinmun, as recently as August 26.

In case this seems aberrant to some readers, I will post the relevant portion of the Singapore Summit that the North considers most important:

...Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1) The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2)The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

The US of course is most interested in parts (3) and (4).

3) Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4) The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

There are other measures short of a declaration of the end of the Korean War at the current time that can be taken by the US, but the US cannot negotiate the first two pledges it made in the Singapore summit because of the intense domestic opposition in the US institutionally, and politically. So Trump, in an weakened political position, simply put everything off, blaming China, for his teams inability to consider any further reciprocal trust building moves to reassure North Koreans that it is in their interest to turn over a list of inventories of nuclear materials, weapons, and facilities, allow inspectors into their territory, and schedule the removal or destruction of those weapons, materials, and facilities. The North Koreans are making it clear that they are not going to be coerced into denuclearization.

The Channel A News Top Ten program went on to consider whether China's Xi Jin Ping would go to Pyongyang for the September 9, celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state and what weapons would be displayed during the standing review of the military parade. Will ICBMs or other nuclear delivery systems be displayed?

North Koreans Complain about US Military Operations after Pompeo visit is cancelled

Reuters reported today on an article appearing in the North Korean Rodong Sinmun newspaper criticizing US hypocrisy, smiling at the negotiating table while planning attacks on North Korea reported in South Korea media:

North Korea newspaper blasts 'double-dealing' U.S. after Pompeo's trip canceled

North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper said U.S. special units based in Japan were staging an air drill aimed at “the infiltration into Pyongyang”, citing a South Korean media outlet.

“Such acts prove that the U.S. is hatching a criminal plot to unleash a war against the DPRK and commit a crime which deserves merciless divine punishment in case the U.S. fails in the scenario of the DPRK’s unjust and brigandish denuclearisation first,” the paper said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/north-korea-newspaper-blasts-double-dealing-u-s-after-pompeos-trip-canceled-idUSKCN1LB0BY


This is interesting. This article probably refers to the South Korean Channel A Top Ten News broadcast on or about August 14, 2018. I took some screen shots of the graphics but didn't write about it. North Korea apparently got the message but decided not to write about it, till now.

Complaints about "gunboat diplomacy" are not all that inflammatory coming as it does from North Korea. Perhaps one could question why Channel A published the story, which I saw on youtube on August 14. The program seemed exaggerated in more than one dimension and it was unduly provocative, perhaps constructed or embellished by whoever provided the information to the producers. Nevertheless, KCNA published their reaction today in Ro Dong Sin Moon in a somewhat typical fashion. Had Pompeo's diplomatic mission to Pyongyang not been cancelled, the North Korean reaction to the exercises probably would have stayed in the file drawer.

Here are some graphics from the Channel A Top Ten Program:

This is from another recent Channel A Top Ten program with a similar impact on North Korea:

Undercurrent of Anti-Xi hostility in Pyongyang?

"Wow suddenly he's becoming close to us"...Ordinary North Koreans have a feeling against Xi Jin Ping?

Participating in sanctions against us?

Swallow something when it's sweet, spit it out when it's bitter, two faced demeanor...his intentions are showing.

China is not at all on North Korea's side.
Two faced character.

Channel A Top Ten News reported that this commentary was given by anonymous sources in Pyongyang in anticipation of Xi's 9.9 summit visit to Pyongyang. The anecdotal information suggests Xi is still supporting the sanctions, despite US reports that he's effectively undermining the negotiations with the US. I've commented before on the US opportunity to take advantage of traditional North Korean suspicion of Chinese motives. I would be looking closely at the development of the so called "new" Sinuiju-Dandong bridge on the Northwest border of China and North Korea as well as ship movements to determine the actual intentions of China regarding sanctions. The recent US secondary sanctions in August seemed to
have been mostly against Russia. The increased Chinese tourist traffic after the summit meetings of Kim and Xi in China seems to be exploitation of unsanctioned economic activities rather than sanctions violations.

Pompeo not going to Pyongyang "at this time."

Channel A Top Ten News graphic Youtube Aug 23. "Big Brother" invited to the 9.9 commemoration, which weapons will North Korea publicly display?


It makes no sense for Pompeo to go this week because (1) he has nothing to offer on counts 1 and 2 of the Singapore declaration and (2) why go before Xi and Moon have their respective summits with Kim?

After continuously poking Xi in the eye, not just on trade but also diplomatically, with the stupid remarks concerning El Salvador and China, he could wait and see if Xi will encourage Kim to go forward on the negotiations anyway, wait and see if Kim rolls out ICBMs during the parade (perhaps in Xi's presence on Sept 9), or how China intends to handle this. Moon can then find out at his summit if it takes place whether there is an opportunity for any opening with Pyongyang, and convey the message to Washington, whatever it is for better or worse. The timing of President Moon's visit could be important. Will he get to see Kim before the UN General Assembly convenes on Sep. 18? If he does, some meaningful negotiations or gestures could possibly take place there.

If China, Russia, North Korea, and, for that matter, South Korea, are waiting for the US to make a small gesture on the "peace regime" on the peninsula, or make some moves toward normalization of relations, it can't happen due to Trump's impaired and weakened position domestically in the US. The US is offering nothing, is focused on denuclearization only, and for that reason, it is likely that Kim wouldn't even talk to Pompeo at all even if he did go to Pyongyang. Pompeo had nothing to offer so he appointed a special envoy to work on the problem with a view to a later meeting. Korean sources briefed on what happened before Trump's tweets canceling the Pompeo mission to Pyongyang say Pompeo and Andrew Kim were there in the White House before the first tweet went out, and Pompeo was involved in drafting it. Bolton was on the phone conferencing with them according to South Korean sources.

Update Aug. 26:

Trump- if you're going to come back empty handed, don't go. TV Chosun news reporting on the Wash Post story. My version of this would be, if you're going empty handed don't go. Of course, the picture shows Ambassador Sang Kim was also at the meeting confirming earlier reports.

China and Russia a hindrance to US-North Korean Negotiations?

Channel A news is reporting that it is almost assured that Xi Jin Ping will make a state visit to Pyongyang for the September 9, military review and celebrations to commemorate the founding of the North Korean state on its 70th Anniversary. The South Korean analysts discussed whether North Korean ICBMs, such as the Hwasong 15, were likely to be displayed under the circumstances and felt it was an unlikely to happen as an unnecessary provocation to the US. Simultaneously, the Chinese and Russians will be engaged in "unprecedented" joint military exercises.

Additional sanctions against the Chinese and Russia have been implemented by the US Treasury department three times this month for violations of UN sanctions against North Korea. South Korea's Channel A Top Ten News podcast depicts the relationship among the the four states in this graphic:

"Sticking together North Korea, China, and Russia, an obstacle to denuclearization." The graphic refers to Xi's upcoming first visit to North Korea, and the planned joint military exercises with Russia and President Trump's frustration related to unsatisfied US denuclearization demands.

Additionally, South Korea has been unable to get US approval of sanctions waivers to set up a North South liaison office in Kaesong North Korea. The waivers were requested by South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa and concern purchase and delivery to the Kaesong facility of fuel and electrical generators. The continuing problem with the stalemate between the US and North Korea, and the resultant sanctions barriers to North South cooperation are resulting in increased tensions on all sides. Here's another Channel A Top Ten news graphic showing the plausible message to South Korea concerning sanctions:

So Russian ships entering North Korean ports and delivering fuel are referred to in the graphic, and then the latest request by South Korea to send fuel and electrical generators to Kaesong regarded similarly by the US as a lit fuse. The requested sanctions waiver by South Korea for purposes of facilitating communications between the two states appear to be valued in the hundreds of thousands of dollars range. There is definitely increased tension between the two allies as a result of lack of progress in the negotiations outlined at the Singapore summit.

Double Trouble

JTBC News South Korea reports Typhoons 19 and 20, Soulik and Cimaron, respectively, simultaneously approaching South Korea and Japan. They are projected to pass through each country about the same time.

South Korean Procurement - Iron Hawk II

Channel A Top Ten News today covered an alleged acquisition dispute within the South Korean Ministry of Defense over the choice of missile defense systems to protect the country from North Korean ballistic missile threats. Although there is currently a US THAAD missile defense site in South Korea that was the subject of much controversy last year, the Channel A discussion focused on the SM-3 missile defense system and the South Korean Iron Hawk II, terminal defense system. The issue portrayed was whether, under the circumstances, the production and integration of the Iron Hawk II into the Korean Air Defense system is worthwhile at this point.

Defense integration date for the Iron Hawk II system is 2021. According to Channel A, the current defense minister of South Korea, Song Yong Mu, has variously wanted to suspend, reduce or cut the Iron Hawk II program considering it a waste of resources. According to this report, the Defense Ministry was anticipating integration into the Naval Aegis defense system in 2023.

Uniformed elements within the Defense department of South Korea are opposed to giving up the Iron Hawk II. The Iron Hawk II system is a terminal flight phase interceptor, while THAAD and SM-3 are mid flight phase interceptors with much longer range and high altitude interception capabilities. The longer ranges of these ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems may be ineffective in defending against short range ballistic missiles that endanger potential targets in South Korea closer to North Korea. Therefore the longer range THAAD missile system needs to be supplemented by a terminal phase interceptor such as the SM 6 or the Iron Hawk II. (Currently the South Koreans are reported to have 8 PAC 3 Patriot Batteries.) One disadvantage of the Iron Hawk II is that it may be ineffective defending against an EMP high altitude attack. The Aegis SM 6 point interceptor has higher altitude capability and longer range. Another requirement of the short range interceptor Iron Hawk II, is that it requires eight launch sites throughout South Korea. One site is considered adequate in South Korea for a long range BMD, such as an Aegis Ashore installation. (There is only one THAAD site currently. Japan is planning on two Aegis Ashore installations.)

Elements of the defense community in South Korea also wish to preserve the indigenous missile development program. The political ramifications of stationing another long range ABM missile defense system in South Korea with respect to China, which took stern economic measures against South Korea when the THAAD was originally deployed in Seongju, South Korea, weren't discussed. The waffling back and forth by the Defense Minister concerning the Iron Hawk II development and procurement program since last November may be motivated by estimation of the threat from North Korea and assessments of Iron Hawk II's capability to address that threat. At present, suggestions that Aegis Ashore may be in the offing in South Korea may be more imaginary than real.

Typhoon Soulik Expected to Pass Through Korea

Channel A Top Ten News is reporting an expected landfall in the vicinity of Kunsan, South Korea at about 1500 hrs local August 23.


Cheju Island is taking emergency preparation measures. Emergency preparation is expected throughout much of South Korea. The storm is projected to bring unprecedented levels of property damage and citizens are warned to be prepared for strong winds, flying debris, heavy rains and flooding near river regions and valleys. Campers and vacationers seeking to escape the current heat wave are advised to leave those areas and seek shelter. Power outages are expected. Typhoon Sanba struck Korea in 2012 causing over 300 million dollars in damages. Typhoon Soulik is regarded as potentially more dangerous. The storm is expected to pass into the Sea of Japan after crossing the Korean peninsula and track to the north north east offshore North Korea, passing Chongin, North Korea, about 24 hours after making landfall near Kunsan.

Typhoon Soulik update

Typhoon Soulik is affecting Cheju Island currently. All flights and ferries out of Cheju island are now cancelled. Seoul and other areas are preparing for landfall on the west coast of Korea from the West Sea approach. Winds are reported at 150 kmph. Rains are expected to exceed ten inches in the Southwest provinces. Schools and bridges will be closed in some areas.

B2s to Guam?

Channel A Top Ten News broadcast from South Korea routinely reports on what they consider to be significant military exercises and movements in the northeast Asian and western Pacific region. Today one of their podcasts over on youtube reported on a flight of B-2s arriving at Hickam AFB in Hawaii. They reported that the aircraft are expected to deploy to Guam. Movements of strategic bombers and other military assets in the region is something of a preoccupation of their analysts because of the ongoing tense situation with North Korea. The report said that 3 B-2s and four tanker aircraft were involved in the mission. The analysts speculated that the presence of four tankers was atypical and may imply the movement of additional aircraft. The movement of these aircraft will undoubtedly be affected to some extent by Typhoon Soulik and perhaps by Tropical Storm Cimaron currently in the western Pacific region.

The same broadcast also noted the departure of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan from port in Japan on August 14, with a full load. They referred to their earlier reporting on the movement of the USS Michigan SSGN in and out of port in Japan in early August and the movement of special forces in the region.

The presence of the HMS Albion in Japanese waters with embarked landing forces was also noted by Channel A Top Ten News as preparation for a joint landing exercise with the Japanese Self Defense Force.

The next several weeks are going to include some significant diplomatic activity with respect to North Korea. Xi Jinping is expected to visit Pyongyang perhaps in conjunction with the September 9 celebrations of the 70th Anniversary of the foundation of the North Korean regime. This will be the first visit of a Chinese head of state to North Korea, since Hu Jintao's visit in 2005. President Moon Jae In of South Korea is also planning a meeting with Kim Jong Un, before the end of September. A visit to North Korea by US Secretary of State Pompeo was also anticipated in the near future. Meanwhile, the US and its allies are enforcing sanctions and maintaining significant military readiness in the region.

Power Politics in Northeast Asia

Some unsourced Korean language youtube up today claims that Kim is afraid of Xi. Uncle, Jang Song-thaek, whom Kim Jong Un had killed after he came into power was allegedly the head of the pro-China faction inside the communist party in North Korea. There was a purge where a lot of the chin chung (pro-China) people were eliminated from the party about four years ago. Just recently after Kim's summits with Xi, some former members of this network have been rehabilitated and restored to positions of power. Kim's renewed emphasis on economic development and the inspection tour he was on recently to support this purpose are related to the former China faction and his new relationship with Xi.

Many Americans assume that Xi is the power behind Kim, but Kim strongly resisted Chinese influence until very recently. The questionable portion of the story, which has been seen earlier in Japanese sourced material was that China had agreed to "carve up" North Korea, basically with the US and Russia. While I'm very skeptical that China made some kind of Ribbentrop-Molotov pact with the US and Russia, there is little question that China is prepared to occupy the better part of North Korea if it has to. I don't think that this is consistent with several of Xi's so called 10 principles, but under the principle of defending Chinese interests he would if the other principles of "win win" and peaceful international order fail.

I had an argument with someone about this when I said that Kim had a jaundiced view of Xi, and China generally. People assume that it's true that Kim and China are as close as "lips and teeth." Ties to China were assessed to be a source of corruption and perhaps political sedition. This is an instinctive xenophobia about being "absorbed" by the giant powerful neighbor.

This "rumor" going around about Kim's "great fear" about Xi is based upon a characterization of Xi as a bad character really, ruthless and powerful, who has "eliminated" many rivals to get where he is, as "chairman for life" of the Chinese Communist Party. The characterization of Xi as a Mao reincarnation is the tell that the story is made up, but like any good disinformation it has an underlying grain of truth.

The point really is this- One doesn't need to create a propaganda campaign to drive a wedge between Kim and Xi, there aleady is one, and it's based upon a pattern of Korean Chinese relations a few thousand years old. The way Korean states traditionally handle a situation like this is to balance off Chinese influence with the power of a third state. Chinese power is invited in only to offset existential aggression from outside of the threatened regime.

The antipathy to Japan doesn't require any explanation. The US is the only great power North Korea can go to in historical terms to offset the great Chinese leverage on North Korea presently and the longer term Japanese threat. It's probable that Trump hatred, the usual US war party interests, and general myopia about change, make this new approach to North Korea unacceptable to the US "establishment." This, in spite of the fact, that this is exactly what the language in the Singapore declaration requires. But the notion that North Korea is going to be coerced into complete denuclearization by the US is not reflective of political reality in the region. What is being sought is a fair and equitable negotiating process to manage the threat to peace in the area. If Washington won't sign a peace agreement, then China isn't going to force North Korea to denuclearize, they will just be satisfied with the ongoing "freeze for a freeze."

Posture and Role of South Korean Assault Ships

Because yesterday Aug 15, was the anniversary of the liberation of Korea from the Japanese occupation, broadcast content in South Korea was characterized by various historical and patriotic national themes. Obviously, there would be a focus on the brutal experience of Japanese occupation, forced labor and so called comfort women themes where ordinary Koreans were subject to forced deportation, slave labor, torture, murder, rape and other human rights violations. On a more positive note President Moon focused on the potential for cooperation with North Korea, to deliver on the longer term promise that liberation from Japanese occupation failed to achieve, namely the national aspiration for unification.

Apart from the historical themes, the item that most interested me, was a look at the Korean Dokdoham, the helicopter carrying assault ship of the Korean Navy, and the prospect for additional ships of this nature in the future. Korea is a land of over three thousand islands, many of which don't support human habitation, but serve as fishery resources, or nature preserves, or are simply rocks in the sea. Many are beautiful tourist spots. The single commissioned assault ship, Dokdoham, commissioned in 2009, is named after the island Dokdo in the Sea of Japan, which the Koreans call the East Sea. The ship's name is said to reflect the determination of the Korean people to protect their islands. Naturally, the island group and surrounding maritime zone is subject to a territorial dispute with Japan, the details of which can be put aside for the purposes here.

Nevertheless, the dispute is not some obscure historical issue but manifested recently when the Japanese complained about Korean representations of the unified map of Korea at the recent Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, which showed the islands as part of a unified Korea. The South Korean government maintains a military observation post on the island.

The presentation on the Dokdoham on Channel A News, and it's planned follow on ships in the same class, did a comparison of this recent naval effort by the South Korean military in comparison to the Japanese navy's assault ships, categorizing the power projection capabilities of each side. The Dokdoham and it's follow on ship, the Maradoham didn't fare well in the comparisons.

One can look to references for the outfitting and mission characteristics of the Dokdo class. The second ship of this class Maradoham was launched in May 2018, and is expected to be commissioned in 2020. The Diplomat carried an interesting article by Robert Farley discussing the role of the latter ship.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/south-koreas-second-dokdo-class-assault-carrier-and-the-future-of-the-rokn/

The Dokdo class assault ship, is about 200 meters long, and can spot about seven UH 60 helicopters according to Channel A news. It can also carry seven armored vehicles and about 700 marines. Channel A did comparisons to the Japanese Hyuaga class assault ships and also the larger Izumo class Japanese carriers, which according to A channel can spot 18 and 28 aircraft respectively.

Neither the Doktoham nor the Maradoham is regarded as having the capabilities necessary to support F35 VSTOL operations. Conceivably a future follow on, referred to as the Bekryeongdoham, (named after another Korean island in the West Sea disputed maritime area off the North Korean coast) would be able to support these aircraft. Channel A News anticipated that such a ship could be launched in the 2020-2030 period. They projected that the ship could support 20 aircraft total. Currently, the South Korean military has operational problems with the Saurion helicopter and the Hesong missiles planned for future use on their assault ships.

Robert Farley in his Diplomat article, South Korea's Second Dokdo-class Assault Carrier and the Future of the ROKN, concludes that the problem for South Korea is rationalizing the major expense of even larger carriers with a strategic justification. The names of the smaller assault carriers imply their justification, the ability to protect their national islands. The ROK navy will not be able to compete with the Japanese Navy in the foreseeable future as the Channel A presentation on the subject yesterday depicts. The Channel A Top Ten military discussion tacitly offers a message to North Korea on rising Japanese naval power and the inescapable conclusion that US military and naval presence is the only likely friendly offset in the area.

Diplomatic Movement from North Korea?

The South Korean and North Korean working delegations, meeting Monday, will be led by Cho Myung Kyun, the South's Unification Minister and Ri Seon Gwon, his North Korean counterpart. (center JTBC)

Korea Times / Hangook Ilbo

Two Koreas to discuss 3rd Moon-Kim summit on Monday Posted : 2018-08-10 13:18

The rival Koreas plan to hold high-level talks on Monday to prepare for a third summit between their leaders, as Pyongyang called on the United States to reciprocate its ''goodwill measures'' by easing sanctions and stopping demands that the North denuclearize first.

The plans by the Korean leaders to meet come as Washington and Pyongyang try to follow through on nuclear disarmament vows made at a U.S.-North Korea summit in June between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In the most recent sign of growing frustration between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea criticized senior American officials for insisting that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons first before easing sanctions. Notably, the statement didn't directly criticize Trump.

North Korea said in a statement Thursday that ''some high-level officials within the U.S. administration'' were making ''desperate attempts at intensifying the international sanctions and pressure.''

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/08/103_253669.html

The article above has translated some of the critical comments from North Korea concerning "the tug of war" between the US and North Korea over their respective understandings of the Singapore Summit declaration. The KCNA Watch service has not posted their translation yet of the critical North Korean article condemning elements of the US administration for "pouring cold water on the priority commitment in the summit declaration to build trust and insulting North Korean efforts." Part of the article was shown on JTBC news today.

JTBC reporting that the proposed location for the third North South summit may be Panmunjom, Kaesong or Kumgangsan and may take place in late August or early September. JTBC also reported that Secretary Pompeo may visit Pyongyang for the fourth time next week. Heather Nauert stated the State Department was in dialogue with North Korea on an "almost daily" basis.

B-52s Operate South of Cheju Island August 1

Channel A Top Ten News today reported that a section of B-52s from Guam operated in the East China Sea south of Cheju Island on August 1. The nuclear capable aircraft conducted a strategic attack exercise mission according to the report. This mission as well as the B52 exercise with Japanese fighter aircraft on July 27, Armistice anniversary day in Korea, were interpreted, by the South Korean Top 10 broadcast, to be a part of the maximum pressure strategy on North Korea, because of the apparent "stalemate" in the denuclearization of North Korea. As part of the August 1 exercise the B-52s were joined by a P-8 Poseidon aircraft.

In the program a number of recent statements by John Bolton, the US national security advisor, were reported. He stated that the US had fulfilled its obligations under the summit declaration, that North Korea had failed to honor its promise to denuclearize, and that there would be no easing of sanctions. These matters were subject to disagreement among the so called "six parties" with a direct interest in denuclearization and peace on the Korean peninsula attending the ASEAN Foreign Ministers conference last week. The B-52 missions which took place both before and during the ASEAN conference demonstrated the ability of the United States to conduct strategic missions while staying some distance from the Korean peninsula. This reflects apparent understandings reached in relation to the Singapore summit, which resulted in suspension of US-ROK joint military exercises which were viewed as provocative by North Korea.

A Reminder from China at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting

South Korea's News A morning news Aug. 4 "US- maintain sanctions vs. China- ease sanctions."

China's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi said: "“China all along has believed that the consensus reached by U.S. and North Korea’s leaders meeting in Singapore is very precious...”

“That is, at the same time as realizing denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, to establish a peace mechanism. This direction is without a doubt correct.”

Here's the relevant portion of the summit statement:

Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.


The words "at the same time" reflect the position that Russia, China, North Korea, and South Korea, see from a similar perspective, emphasizing trust building, performance reciprocity, and concrete measures to build a "peace regime." The US and Japan, on the other side, emphasize a "one sided approach," namely "complete denuclearization" first. They are primarily focused on (3). So are the national media.

To get the summit Pompeo had proposed a Complete Verifiable Irreversible Guarantee for North Korean security. (CVIG for CVID) Trump said he would consider a declaration to end the state of war represented by the armistice. Since the summit, nothing positive has been said about this on the US side. Pompeo refused to discuss it the last time he was in Pyongyang. The US wants the inventory of nuclear weapons facilities in North Korea and an inspection and verification process to facilitate denuclearization of North Korea. In other words, they want, from a North Korean perspective, for North Korea to disarm, without providing the security guarantees.

At the Singapore ASEAN Foreign Minsisters Meeting this week, the North Korean Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho, met with the Chinese Minister and his delegation. South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa met with Sergei Lavrov's delegation from Russia, and separately, with Taro Kono's delegation from Japan. Late reports are that Pompeo and Wang met also.

It is relevant in respect to the timing and reciprocity issues, that Pompeo is being reported in the South Korean media this morning as having invited Seo Hun, the S.Korean National Intelligence Director, to a previously undisclosed meeting in Washington D.C. last week. At that meeting it is said that Pompeo requested that South Korea refrain from pressing the pace on the desired declaration for an end to the Korean conflict, and the same for Korean requests to ease the sanctions regime. It is also reported by A News, in South Korea, that a similar request was made by Pompeo, in a phone call to Cho Myung Kyun the South Korean Unification Minister. (See my July 22 article below on Chung's visit with John Bolton in Washington, D.C., South Korean National Security Advisor's visit to DC - A Mistake?)

On August 2, South Korean A News reported that there will be no exception to the sanctions, and that a South Korean waiver request for the North South Liaison Office proposed to be opened at Kaeseong, North Korea, was refused. Statements from Anthony Ruggiero at the NSC, and also from Cory Gardner at the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, indicated that sanctions relief would not be forthcoming.