Political Turmoil in South Korea

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) Liberty Korea Party representatives may be charged in a group, as they have refused to respond to summons (from the investigating prosecutors for the April 25 "fast track" incident in the National Assembly.)

The right wing Liberty Korea Party didn't have much time to relish the resignation of the Cho Kuk, the short term Minister of Justice who barely lasted thirty five days after being appointed to reform the National Prosecutor's office in South Korea. This morning prosecution office investigators arrived at the National Assembly Broadcast archives office to collect all video recordings related to last April's Liberty Korea Party sit in blockade of the National Assembly offices to preclude consideration of "fast track" legislative proposals (discussed here in an earlier blog entry Oct 12). The fast track proposals included electoral reform as well as prosecution reform. The presentation of a search warrant at the video archives indicates that the Chief Prosecutor's office has decided to proceed with a formal investigation of the Liberty Korea Party's unlawful acts in the National Assembly building despite their representatives collective refusal to respond to legal process. The prosecution could rely on filing charges against members identified in the video recordings without obtaining individual responses to summons or statements from the conservative representatives. As many as sixty representatives or staff members were involved in the disorder, which ultimately failed to prevent a fast track approval vote the legislative committee.

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) Liberty Korea Party opposition leader in the National Assembly, "I have already said I know that in order for government to finish its (fast track) investigation we will face investigation. Nevertheless, during the regular session of the National Assembly to take colleagues away (from our duties) really..."

Given the suspicions surrounding Cho Kuk's wife and other family members, it may have been a serious mistake for Moon Jae In to appoint him Justice Minister. Minister Cho's sudden resignation on October 14 was the right move in view of increasing domestic dissatisfaction and unrest evidenced by street demonstrations. South Korea's economic difficulties prompted by the ongoing trade disputes in Asia, the rift with Japan, and the unraveling of relations with North Korea have all taken a toll on the approval rating of the democratic administration. One domestic poll reported by JTBC on the 17th reported that Moon's approval rating had improved by more than three percent after the sudden Cho resignation. Today JTBC reported a Gallup poll saying that Moon's popularity had continued to fall and was below forty percent for the first time since he took office.

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) National Assembly Broadcast caught the fast track confrontation live on camera while it happened. Unedited archive videos are sought in the prosecution's search warrant.


The Liberty Korea Party can take little comfort from the polls. It is they now who are being chided publicly for being on the wrong side of the legal process. In addition to the negative publicity of their embarrassing impolitic display of weakness last April, they are now presented with the prospect of dealing with an apparently implacable and capable chief prosecutor. In addition to this, they are faced with potentially losing seats in the National Assembly based on the electoral reform to which four of the political parties have agreed to fast track. This reform may come up for a vote in the Assembly in time to affect the April 2020 elections barring any unforeseen developments. However, unforeseen developments seem to have been the order of the day since the Park impeachment, and anything could happen. Who could have predicted mass demonstrations in Gwanghwamun, as seen on October 3, and October 9 in favor of the right wing party? The democratic party assembly leader commented on the unsavory quality of dictator reverence that seemed to affect some of the crowd. Leader Na responded that democrats had no room to criticize anyone for dictatorial traits.

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) Lee In Yeong, Democratic Party floor leader in the National Assembly. Hiding from the chief prosecutor..."instead of rationalizing self advocacy I wish those of you facing legal process from the prosecutors office respond now. No one, no matter who they are, is above the law."

Under these circumstances, polls mean nothing if the LKP doesn't have a majority in the legislature and is out of stonewalling and diversion tactics. So what will the wily LKP leaders come up with for their next move? More mass street demonstrations? Attempts by demonstrators to enter the Blue House? Violent Black Bloc type tactics seen in Hong Kong presaged in the October 3 Gwanghwamun demonstration? Anything could happen. The trial process against Cho Kuk's spouse began today, but the prosecution hasn't yet complied with discovery requests from the defense based on claims disclosure would adversely affect investigations related to former Minister Cho. The judge did not accept the explanation and further hearing is scheduled.

South Korean Domestic Instability

Last April, representatives of the right wing Liberty Korea Party and their staff illegally obstructed South Korea's National Assembly by blocking the hallways, doors and passageways of the assembly building and in some cases committing assaults in an attempt to stop passage of the so called "fast track" procedure for consideration of bills within 330 days. The fast track measure was proposed as a necessary means to overcome LKP stonewalling legislation by bottling reform bills up in committee indefinitely with their boycotts of the legislative process and other stalling tactics. Recently, 18 members of the LKP have refused to accept summons process from the Seoul Prosecutors Office Southern District in an investigation of their suspected criminal acts in the National Assembly building. In a "tit for tat" response, the LKP filed criminal complaints against members of the ruling Democratic Party. The criminal investigation against the LKP, includes, Na Kyung-won, the party floor leader. Hwang Kyo-ahn, the leader of the LKP and former Saenuri Party Prime Minister during the Park impeachment, who shaved his head in protest to the administration, said he should be the one called to formally answer for the events disrupting the legislative process. Because much of the criminal activity is apparent on video recordings of the scene inside the assembly building and third party witnesses were present, the criminal investigation could go forward without taking statements from the named suspects. Some observers say prosecution of sitting members of the legislature for these actions may simply just aggravate the ongoing political conflict.

The net outcome of this obstruction of governance by the minority conservative opposition party has been to take the issues that are intended for a legislative vote in National Assembly on November 29, and make them an issue for street politics by mass crowds. Democratic partisans have held a total of nine mass demonstrations thus far in favor of prosecution reforms, which will increase investigative powers of police agencies to offset the overwhelming power of the central prosecutors office, and by reducing the special prosecutors offices operating in six regional offices in South Korea. The monopoly of prosecution powers is felt to encourage corruption by making prosecutors, in effect, immune from investigative initiatives from law enforcement. The demonstrations began in response to the two month long investigation of the family of the Justice Minister, Cho Kuk.

Cho Kuk, the new Justice Minister appointed by the Blue House, has had family members subject to formal investigation by the Central prosecutor's office for two months now. Massive street demonstrations by democratic party supporters against the prosecutors office are styled as both support for Cho Kuk, who has been appointed to carry out prosecution reforms, and support for the reforms themselves. Cho Kuk's daughter and mother have been accused of falsifying records and perhaps influence peddling to obtain academic credentials from prestigious institutions and are under investigation. It is somewhat ironic that the son of the LKP legislative floor leader, Na Kyung-won, is accused by the press of similar abuses. Cho Kuk's family members, including his wife, are also accused of engaging in suspicious financial activities which may be a cover for influence peddling. It appears that the focus of the central prosecutors investigation is, in fact, Cho Kuk, as the investigation spreads a broad net in search of evidence. Again, ironically, the Prosecutor General, has been accused in the press, of taking gifts and having conflicts of interest. He denies the accusations.

A more fundamental issue, involves the resistance of the conservative party to fast track of the legislative electoral reforms which would weaken their representation in the National Assembly. The number of proportional voting seats in the assembly of 300 representatives would increase from 47 to 75 giving greater representation to democratic or progressive parties. The estimated effect would be to reduce the number of LKP seats from 117 to 97. This is the crux of the matter really. Additionally, there is a strong regional basis to the right wing vote in South Korea that has been a barrier to reform for decades, used to preserve and protect the interests of chaebol families, corporate management, and legacy pro-Japanese interests. The legislative electoral reform could potentially weaken or temporarily eliminate this obstacle after the next election April 15.

Threats of physical resistance to the present administration are implicit in the last major right wing rally at Gwangwhamoon, on last week's Hangulnal holiday. These threats are in the nature of the type of violent resistance that is going on in Hong Kong presently. At the recent LKP organized Gwangwhamoon demonstrations, the religious and far right constituencies engage in overt adulation of the military dictatorships the right supported in the past, along with claims that the former president, Park Geun Hye, was unjustly impeached and convicted on false evidence of abuse of power contrived by the press. The threats were presented in two forms, first in confrontations with police near the Blue House security cordon, the seat of executive power, not far from Gwangwhamoon. The second is in equivocal language promising the fighting, and resistance, exemplified by Hong Kong street radicals who engage in physical combat with police. The threatening language in speeches given during the presence of leaders of the LKP, ‎Hwang Kyo-ahn and ‎Na Kyung-won, is ambivalent enough to provide "plausible deniability." It's no surprise that the LKP/far right demonstrations call for the impeachment of president Moon Jae-in, along with the resignation and arrest of the Justice Minister, Cho Kuk. The politics of desperation of the far right Liberty Korea Party are on display.

The demonstration this Saturday in Seocho dong, Seoul, by the pro-democratic supporters brought out some right wing counter demonstrators behind the police line, with their ubiquitous US flags sprinkled among the Taegukkis. A very large US flag was displayed out front which took a group of people to carry it. The question is why do opponents of democracy in South Korea invariably bring US flags to their demonstrations?

Sources:

한국당 소환불응 고수…'패스트트랙 충돌' 조사없이 재판 넘기나
송고시간 | 2019-10-13 09:30
https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20191013006900004?section=politics/national-assembly&site=major_news01

South Korean National Assembly Fast-tracks Reform Bills Amid Conservative Opposition
May 04, 2019 / Lavinia Ding
https://www.irinsider.org/east-asia-1/2019/5/4/south-korean-national-assembly-fast-tracks-reform-bills-amid-conservative-opposition

여야4당 내일 선거법개정안 발의…한국당 극렬 반발
입력 : 2019.04.23 18:19:53
https://www.mk.co.kr/news/politics/view/2019/04/253734/

[속보] 국회 정개특위서 ‘선거법 개정안’ 가결
등록 :2019-08-29 11:20
http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/politics/assembly/907622.html

Updates:

JTBC reported on its Live program (Oct. 13) tonight, that questioning of the relevant prosecutor by the committee responsible for the fast track process disclosed that the prosecutor's office was not certain of the scope of legislative immunity as applied to the disruptive conduct of Liberty Korea Party representatives in the assembly building last April, and that this may affect whether or not warrants for compulsory appearance before investigators was forthcoming.

Cho Kuk resigned today (Oct. 14).

The "peaceful" import of the Concert of Europe

The concert relied more or less on the subjugation of colonies or empire. The military impulse was extended abroad against those who were incapable of defense because they were in western terms less developed. So the competition and rivalries of the “great powers” were sublimated for extended periods in a concert of exploitation of overseas conquests. The great powers who found themselves at a disadvantage were destabilizing and at the turn of the century began attacking each other on their frontiers. Japan and Russia attacked each other in Asia. Germany at a disadvantage abroad in comparison to the French and English empires simply decided to attack its neighbors.

So imperialism laid the groundwork for the two world wars. Interestingly, Hannah Arendt posits Lawrence of Arabia as the prototypical superman model for Nazi Germany. There are today similar social archetypes or paradigms in the west such as 007, or the special forces warrior who follows in the footsteps of Lawrence in Syria or Afghanistan. The imperial god character appears in Graham Greene’s classic, the Quiet American and later in the movie Apocalypse now.

Japan modeled it’s early twentieth century imperialism on the British model in Egypt. It’s gunboat diplomacy in Asia was clearly based on US and English models. Eventually, these models of behavior resulted in direct military confrontations. The US and England made turn of the century agreements with Japan which postponed their clash until Pearl Harbor but victimized the rest of Asia. Today the CIA and SOC operate as a modern day East India Corporation carrying on a secret war which never really ended after WWII. The patterns are essentially the same. Putin dreams of something better but the old paradigm that war is the guarantor of the health of ruling elites just won’t go away without a fight. Unfortunately, the western elites have consistently designated Russia, China and lesser states as the enemy to sustain society organized on the principle of war.

Liar's Poker in Stockholm

When I saw this story on KBS 24 live on youtube, they said that the North Koreans complained that the US hadn’t changed its position. The report said the US representative Stephen Biegun wouldn’t talk to reporters because it wasn’t appropriate to reveal their reaction publicly. Reporters believed that Biegun went to the US embassy rather than stay at the facilities where the talks were being held. The plans of the NK delegation were not clear at the time. The speculation was that it was the old “one bundle” approach of the US v. the step by step approach. The immediate harsh North Korean undiplomatic statements at the scene, after the Stockholm meeting, appear similar to what Trump, Bolton and company did to the North at the summit in Hanoi.

I’m kind of surprised because the Washington Talk on VOA Korea by the two well connected experts they had on Saturday, seemed cautious but upbeat. Most genuine experts seem to know the structure of a deal that could work, I wonder if any were formulated beforehand or if Biegun’s team is just playing liar's poker. The dialogue imagined looks like this, “you have to come off the dime first;” “no you have to make the first offer;” “what did you bring to the table?” “what did you bring to the table?” “You have to define denuclearization and the end stage first;” “no, it’s step by step, with reciprocal trust building measures;” “no that isn’t how it works;” “Okay, bye, we see you haven’t changed a bit, why did you bother?”

Biegun clearly knows better from his presentation at Stanford that was used to sucker the North Koreans at Hanoi. To his credit at his last major policy presentation on North Korea, his views were even less promising and really offered no daylight for the North Koreans in terms of changing the US policy position. To be realistic Kim Jong Un's negotiating team isn't negotiating with Trump, it's negotiating with the entire US government and private establishment with vested interests in the so called San Francisco system that supports US national security in the "Indo- Pacific." These people aren't negotiating, they're in the regime change business. Domestically, Trump is so weak at this point it's unlikely he's capable of offering a negotiating process the North Korean's can accept, let alone make substantive concessions. This is what he found out after Singapore.

The Black Hole of South Korean Domestic Politics

There is a contrary view that the demonstration in Gwangwhamun was more extensive than I have previously described.* The promoters of the demonstration, specifically, the Liberty Korea Party, have claimed that there were 3 million demonstrators. The author watched news reports of every candlelight demonstration at Gwanghwamun that brought down the previous Park government. Rather than increase the estimate of the participants at the anti-Cho Guk, anti- democracy demonstration, it appears that an estimate in the hundreds of thousands would also be appropriate for the democratic pro-Cho Guk demonstration last Saturday.

While the turnout on Saturday in support of the judicial reforms and the Moon administration was substantially larger than the Liberty Party rally at Gwangwhamun, as a practical matter it doesn't matter, the political impact is equivalent. The Liberty Party turnout was massive. In light of other pressing matters, the pending negotiations with North Korea; the diplomatic and economic rift with Japan; the impact of repeated typhoons damaging the southern regions of South Korea; and the investigations of Justice Minister Cho Guk's family for suspected corruption, and the leaders of the Liberty Party Korea for illegally obstructing the constitutional functions of the legislative assembly; the domestic political polarization in South Korea represents a political crisis. Sohn Suk-hee, chief of the JTBC News Division correctly characterized the current domestic political confrontation in South Korea as a "black hole."

*For a description of the Liberty Party demonstration:

Impressions of the anti- Cho Guk demonstration

https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/10/initial-impressions-of-anti-cho-guk.html

For a description of the earlier pro- Cho Guk demonstation:

https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/09/protestors-gather-over-cho-kuk-scandal.html

Update: Oct. 5 Pro-Cho Guk, pro- prosecutorial reform demonstrations continue at Seocho Station in Seoul.

Impressions of the anti- Cho Guk demonstration

The demonstration took place on Kwanghwamoon plaza with a scheduled start of 4 pm local Seoul time. Prior to this it was kicked off by a "prayer day" rally sponsored by a Christian Conference group. There preachers spoke about President Moon Jae-in's socialism and the need to protect South Korea from the threat of pro-communist elements in the government. The conference claimed to be non-partisan. The key speaker called for the impeachment of Moon Jae-in and protested the injustice of the impeachment and imprisonment of former President Park Geun Hye. This is in contrast to an interdenominational conference of clerics which took place indoors about a week ago in support of justice reform initiatives of Moon's administration and the publication of a petition to that effect signed by 8000 clerics and monks of all denominations. The presence of American flags on the podium and in the crowd at the "non-partisan" prayer meeting also raises the traditional stereotype of foreign influences on protestant ministries dabbling in internal politics in Asia.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.3) Jeon Gwang Hoon, executive director of the United Christian Conference, calls for the impeachment of Moon Jae-In, "effective immediately." He also blasted "those expletive deleted illegally impeached Park Geun Hye and instigated the press" (against her). Minister Jeon was criticized for soliciting contributions for himself citing the biblical rewards in store for contributors, while proverbial "men in black" stood guard nearby.

Various claims were made about the size of the demonstration characterized as "people's resistance" and "people's revolution" against Moon Jae-in's democratic party government. Most of the sign's called for Cho Guk to be arrested or resign and for Moon Jae In to resign or be impeached. Estimates claimed by partisans ranged from one to three million persons. Judging from the extent and density of the crowd, it appeared more in the range of 200,000 to 300,000 people which is a surprisingly good turnout for the opposition parties. This was primarily a Liberty Korea Party affair, and their most prominent leaders were there to speak. JTBC news coverage reported that Korean police authorities no longer report on the estimated size of crowds in political demonstrations.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.3)

There were reports of violence at the demonstration. 46 persons were reported arrested for either violence or interfering with official police duties. Most of the people were arrested as they approached the Blue House perimeter, a security zone. As police attempted to ward off demonstrators, it was reported that some armed themselves with wooden clubs of some type and brandished them as weapons against police. Apparently, there is no video of this confrontation. Also a JTBC female reporter was allegedly sexually assaulted by two demonstrators according to their news report. Demonstrators also allegedly attacked one vehicle.

As a whole attempting to characterize the demonstration as a "people's revolution" seems to be patent dissembling. The Liberty Korea Party represents conservative corporate and vested money interests and Christian denomination followers in South Korea. The party is also characterized by limited regional support. The presence of American flags throughout the demonstration as a whole is something of a tell. How beneficial is it for the US to be associated with the calls for the resignation or impeachment of Moon Jae In? The ubiquitous US flag presence implies that the outside power backs our goals.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.3)

In any case the Taegukki People's Revolution Movement, a reactionary far right organization, appeared to be present at the demonstration in force, carrying US flags as well as Korean flags. Their banner (above) featured the former ruthless dictators Syngman Rhee and Park Chung Hee. It's clear where they're coming from. The presentation of potential violence against the police protecting the Blue House is an obvious threat to the administration, and smacks of the violent provocations in Hong Kong. In fact, a recent tweet, by the untethered Joshua Wong, drew a poorly formulated and unwitting link between the 5.18 massacre in Kwangju and what is going on today in Hong Kong. But back in 1980, the US backed the Chun Du Won dictatorship just as it backed the previous South Korean dictatorships. Hundreds of civilians were killed. There were no consequences for the martial law regime. The forced analogy with the South Korean democratic uprising in Kwangju suggests someone wrote Mr. Wong's media script for him. South Korean right wingers to this day claim the victims of martial law brutality and murder were communists. Today, the Liberty Korea Party, carrying American flags, calls the Korean Democratic Party communists.

North Korean missile launch in context

The US launched a Minuteman III ICBM 4000 miles into the Pacific from Vandenburg the same day.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1977228/afgsc-tests-minuteman-iii-missile-with-launch-from-vandenberg-afb/

We also had Moon Jae In's speech yesterday for Armed Forces Day extolling South Korean military strength, accompanied by flights of its newly acquired F-35s. Japan took the opportunity to formally complain and reassert its bogus territorial claim to Dokdo which was overflown by one of the South Korean fighters covered live on South Korean television.

Another observer pointed out that the Russians test launched an ICBM on Sep. 30. Yesterday, China displayed it's new ICBMs at a military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the PRC.

The new US defense secretary has been promoting the deployment of US IRBMs in the far east now that the US is no longer constrained by the treaty with Russia on that category of weapons.

So the test launch of a SLBM today near Wonsan North Korea takes place in this international context as well as the context of UN sanctions and US-DPRK negotiations.

addendum: I omitted this report of multiple US SLBM unarmed test launches in early September. This is another context which is really quite significant if one understands the nature of the new "low yield" warheads intended for use on these missiles:

In this most recent series of Trident II test launches, Nebraska fired two missiles on Sept. 4, 2019, and another two on Sept. 6, 2019. The submarine fired all of the weapons from an unspecified location off the coast of Southern California. Based on U.S. government warning notices to aircraft and ships, it appeared that the missiles may have come down in the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii and/or near Guam. To date, there have been 176 total test launches of the Trident II, also known as the Trident D5.

*

And:

The Navy was also supposed to reach initial operational capability with the W76-2 warhead, which is redesigned to produce a lower-yield, by the end of this year. NNSA says it produced the first of these in January 2019. This is a particularly controversial development, which advocates say is necessary to provide the United States with a more flexible nuclear weapon to respond to more limited contingencies.

* U.S. Ballistic Missile Sub Fired An Impressive Four Trident II Missiles In Just Three Days, Joseph Trevithink, Sep. 7, 2019;
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29714/u-s-ballistic-missile-sub-fired-an-impressive-four-trident-ii-missiles-in-just-three-days