Typhoon Soulik Expected to Pass Through Korea

Channel A Top Ten News is reporting an expected landfall in the vicinity of Kunsan, South Korea at about 1500 hrs local August 23.


Cheju Island is taking emergency preparation measures. Emergency preparation is expected throughout much of South Korea. The storm is projected to bring unprecedented levels of property damage and citizens are warned to be prepared for strong winds, flying debris, heavy rains and flooding near river regions and valleys. Campers and vacationers seeking to escape the current heat wave are advised to leave those areas and seek shelter. Power outages are expected. Typhoon Sanba struck Korea in 2012 causing over 300 million dollars in damages. Typhoon Soulik is regarded as potentially more dangerous. The storm is expected to pass into the Sea of Japan after crossing the Korean peninsula and track to the north north east offshore North Korea, passing Chongin, North Korea, about 24 hours after making landfall near Kunsan.

Typhoon Soulik update

Typhoon Soulik is affecting Cheju Island currently. All flights and ferries out of Cheju island are now cancelled. Seoul and other areas are preparing for landfall on the west coast of Korea from the West Sea approach. Winds are reported at 150 kmph. Rains are expected to exceed ten inches in the Southwest provinces. Schools and bridges will be closed in some areas.

B2s to Guam?

Channel A Top Ten News broadcast from South Korea routinely reports on what they consider to be significant military exercises and movements in the northeast Asian and western Pacific region. Today one of their podcasts over on youtube reported on a flight of B-2s arriving at Hickam AFB in Hawaii. They reported that the aircraft are expected to deploy to Guam. Movements of strategic bombers and other military assets in the region is something of a preoccupation of their analysts because of the ongoing tense situation with North Korea. The report said that 3 B-2s and four tanker aircraft were involved in the mission. The analysts speculated that the presence of four tankers was atypical and may imply the movement of additional aircraft. The movement of these aircraft will undoubtedly be affected to some extent by Typhoon Soulik and perhaps by Tropical Storm Cimaron currently in the western Pacific region.

The same broadcast also noted the departure of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan from port in Japan on August 14, with a full load. They referred to their earlier reporting on the movement of the USS Michigan SSGN in and out of port in Japan in early August and the movement of special forces in the region.

The presence of the HMS Albion in Japanese waters with embarked landing forces was also noted by Channel A Top Ten News as preparation for a joint landing exercise with the Japanese Self Defense Force.

The next several weeks are going to include some significant diplomatic activity with respect to North Korea. Xi Jinping is expected to visit Pyongyang perhaps in conjunction with the September 9 celebrations of the 70th Anniversary of the foundation of the North Korean regime. This will be the first visit of a Chinese head of state to North Korea, since Hu Jintao's visit in 2005. President Moon Jae In of South Korea is also planning a meeting with Kim Jong Un, before the end of September. A visit to North Korea by US Secretary of State Pompeo was also anticipated in the near future. Meanwhile, the US and its allies are enforcing sanctions and maintaining significant military readiness in the region.

Power Politics in Northeast Asia

Some unsourced Korean language youtube up today claims that Kim is afraid of Xi. Uncle, Jang Song-thaek, whom Kim Jong Un had killed after he came into power was allegedly the head of the pro-China faction inside the communist party in North Korea. There was a purge where a lot of the chin chung (pro-China) people were eliminated from the party about four years ago. Just recently after Kim's summits with Xi, some former members of this network have been rehabilitated and restored to positions of power. Kim's renewed emphasis on economic development and the inspection tour he was on recently to support this purpose are related to the former China faction and his new relationship with Xi.

Many Americans assume that Xi is the power behind Kim, but Kim strongly resisted Chinese influence until very recently. The questionable portion of the story, which has been seen earlier in Japanese sourced material was that China had agreed to "carve up" North Korea, basically with the US and Russia. While I'm very skeptical that China made some kind of Ribbentrop-Molotov pact with the US and Russia, there is little question that China is prepared to occupy the better part of North Korea if it has to. I don't think that this is consistent with several of Xi's so called 10 principles, but under the principle of defending Chinese interests he would if the other principles of "win win" and peaceful international order fail.

I had an argument with someone about this when I said that Kim had a jaundiced view of Xi, and China generally. People assume that it's true that Kim and China are as close as "lips and teeth." Ties to China were assessed to be a source of corruption and perhaps political sedition. This is an instinctive xenophobia about being "absorbed" by the giant powerful neighbor.

This "rumor" going around about Kim's "great fear" about Xi is based upon a characterization of Xi as a bad character really, ruthless and powerful, who has "eliminated" many rivals to get where he is, as "chairman for life" of the Chinese Communist Party. The characterization of Xi as a Mao reincarnation is the tell that the story is made up, but like any good disinformation it has an underlying grain of truth.

The point really is this- One doesn't need to create a propaganda campaign to drive a wedge between Kim and Xi, there aleady is one, and it's based upon a pattern of Korean Chinese relations a few thousand years old. The way Korean states traditionally handle a situation like this is to balance off Chinese influence with the power of a third state. Chinese power is invited in only to offset existential aggression from outside of the threatened regime.

The antipathy to Japan doesn't require any explanation. The US is the only great power North Korea can go to in historical terms to offset the great Chinese leverage on North Korea presently and the longer term Japanese threat. It's probable that Trump hatred, the usual US war party interests, and general myopia about change, make this new approach to North Korea unacceptable to the US "establishment." This, in spite of the fact, that this is exactly what the language in the Singapore declaration requires. But the notion that North Korea is going to be coerced into complete denuclearization by the US is not reflective of political reality in the region. What is being sought is a fair and equitable negotiating process to manage the threat to peace in the area. If Washington won't sign a peace agreement, then China isn't going to force North Korea to denuclearize, they will just be satisfied with the ongoing "freeze for a freeze."

Posture and Role of South Korean Assault Ships

Because yesterday Aug 15, was the anniversary of the liberation of Korea from the Japanese occupation, broadcast content in South Korea was characterized by various historical and patriotic national themes. Obviously, there would be a focus on the brutal experience of Japanese occupation, forced labor and so called comfort women themes where ordinary Koreans were subject to forced deportation, slave labor, torture, murder, rape and other human rights violations. On a more positive note President Moon focused on the potential for cooperation with North Korea, to deliver on the longer term promise that liberation from Japanese occupation failed to achieve, namely the national aspiration for unification.

Apart from the historical themes, the item that most interested me, was a look at the Korean Dokdoham, the helicopter carrying assault ship of the Korean Navy, and the prospect for additional ships of this nature in the future. Korea is a land of over three thousand islands, many of which don't support human habitation, but serve as fishery resources, or nature preserves, or are simply rocks in the sea. Many are beautiful tourist spots. The single commissioned assault ship, Dokdoham, commissioned in 2009, is named after the island Dokdo in the Sea of Japan, which the Koreans call the East Sea. The ship's name is said to reflect the determination of the Korean people to protect their islands. Naturally, the island group and surrounding maritime zone is subject to a territorial dispute with Japan, the details of which can be put aside for the purposes here.

Nevertheless, the dispute is not some obscure historical issue but manifested recently when the Japanese complained about Korean representations of the unified map of Korea at the recent Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, which showed the islands as part of a unified Korea. The South Korean government maintains a military observation post on the island.

The presentation on the Dokdoham on Channel A News, and it's planned follow on ships in the same class, did a comparison of this recent naval effort by the South Korean military in comparison to the Japanese navy's assault ships, categorizing the power projection capabilities of each side. The Dokdoham and it's follow on ship, the Maradoham didn't fare well in the comparisons.

One can look to references for the outfitting and mission characteristics of the Dokdo class. The second ship of this class Maradoham was launched in May 2018, and is expected to be commissioned in 2020. The Diplomat carried an interesting article by Robert Farley discussing the role of the latter ship.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/south-koreas-second-dokdo-class-assault-carrier-and-the-future-of-the-rokn/

The Dokdo class assault ship, is about 200 meters long, and can spot about seven UH 60 helicopters according to Channel A news. It can also carry seven armored vehicles and about 700 marines. Channel A did comparisons to the Japanese Hyuaga class assault ships and also the larger Izumo class Japanese carriers, which according to A channel can spot 18 and 28 aircraft respectively.

Neither the Doktoham nor the Maradoham is regarded as having the capabilities necessary to support F35 VSTOL operations. Conceivably a future follow on, referred to as the Bekryeongdoham, (named after another Korean island in the West Sea disputed maritime area off the North Korean coast) would be able to support these aircraft. Channel A News anticipated that such a ship could be launched in the 2020-2030 period. They projected that the ship could support 20 aircraft total. Currently, the South Korean military has operational problems with the Saurion helicopter and the Hesong missiles planned for future use on their assault ships.

Robert Farley in his Diplomat article, South Korea's Second Dokdo-class Assault Carrier and the Future of the ROKN, concludes that the problem for South Korea is rationalizing the major expense of even larger carriers with a strategic justification. The names of the smaller assault carriers imply their justification, the ability to protect their national islands. The ROK navy will not be able to compete with the Japanese Navy in the foreseeable future as the Channel A presentation on the subject yesterday depicts. The Channel A Top Ten military discussion tacitly offers a message to North Korea on rising Japanese naval power and the inescapable conclusion that US military and naval presence is the only likely friendly offset in the area.

Diplomatic Movement from North Korea?

The South Korean and North Korean working delegations, meeting Monday, will be led by Cho Myung Kyun, the South's Unification Minister and Ri Seon Gwon, his North Korean counterpart. (center JTBC)

Korea Times / Hangook Ilbo

Two Koreas to discuss 3rd Moon-Kim summit on Monday Posted : 2018-08-10 13:18

The rival Koreas plan to hold high-level talks on Monday to prepare for a third summit between their leaders, as Pyongyang called on the United States to reciprocate its ''goodwill measures'' by easing sanctions and stopping demands that the North denuclearize first.

The plans by the Korean leaders to meet come as Washington and Pyongyang try to follow through on nuclear disarmament vows made at a U.S.-North Korea summit in June between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In the most recent sign of growing frustration between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea criticized senior American officials for insisting that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons first before easing sanctions. Notably, the statement didn't directly criticize Trump.

North Korea said in a statement Thursday that ''some high-level officials within the U.S. administration'' were making ''desperate attempts at intensifying the international sanctions and pressure.''

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/08/103_253669.html

The article above has translated some of the critical comments from North Korea concerning "the tug of war" between the US and North Korea over their respective understandings of the Singapore Summit declaration. The KCNA Watch service has not posted their translation yet of the critical North Korean article condemning elements of the US administration for "pouring cold water on the priority commitment in the summit declaration to build trust and insulting North Korean efforts." Part of the article was shown on JTBC news today.

JTBC reporting that the proposed location for the third North South summit may be Panmunjom, Kaesong or Kumgangsan and may take place in late August or early September. JTBC also reported that Secretary Pompeo may visit Pyongyang for the fourth time next week. Heather Nauert stated the State Department was in dialogue with North Korea on an "almost daily" basis.

B-52s Operate South of Cheju Island August 1

Channel A Top Ten News today reported that a section of B-52s from Guam operated in the East China Sea south of Cheju Island on August 1. The nuclear capable aircraft conducted a strategic attack exercise mission according to the report. This mission as well as the B52 exercise with Japanese fighter aircraft on July 27, Armistice anniversary day in Korea, were interpreted, by the South Korean Top 10 broadcast, to be a part of the maximum pressure strategy on North Korea, because of the apparent "stalemate" in the denuclearization of North Korea. As part of the August 1 exercise the B-52s were joined by a P-8 Poseidon aircraft.

In the program a number of recent statements by John Bolton, the US national security advisor, were reported. He stated that the US had fulfilled its obligations under the summit declaration, that North Korea had failed to honor its promise to denuclearize, and that there would be no easing of sanctions. These matters were subject to disagreement among the so called "six parties" with a direct interest in denuclearization and peace on the Korean peninsula attending the ASEAN Foreign Ministers conference last week. The B-52 missions which took place both before and during the ASEAN conference demonstrated the ability of the United States to conduct strategic missions while staying some distance from the Korean peninsula. This reflects apparent understandings reached in relation to the Singapore summit, which resulted in suspension of US-ROK joint military exercises which were viewed as provocative by North Korea.

A Reminder from China at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting

South Korea's News A morning news Aug. 4 "US- maintain sanctions vs. China- ease sanctions."

China's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi said: "“China all along has believed that the consensus reached by U.S. and North Korea’s leaders meeting in Singapore is very precious...”

“That is, at the same time as realizing denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, to establish a peace mechanism. This direction is without a doubt correct.”

Here's the relevant portion of the summit statement:

Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.–DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.


The words "at the same time" reflect the position that Russia, China, North Korea, and South Korea, see from a similar perspective, emphasizing trust building, performance reciprocity, and concrete measures to build a "peace regime." The US and Japan, on the other side, emphasize a "one sided approach," namely "complete denuclearization" first. They are primarily focused on (3). So are the national media.

To get the summit Pompeo had proposed a Complete Verifiable Irreversible Guarantee for North Korean security. (CVIG for CVID) Trump said he would consider a declaration to end the state of war represented by the armistice. Since the summit, nothing positive has been said about this on the US side. Pompeo refused to discuss it the last time he was in Pyongyang. The US wants the inventory of nuclear weapons facilities in North Korea and an inspection and verification process to facilitate denuclearization of North Korea. In other words, they want, from a North Korean perspective, for North Korea to disarm, without providing the security guarantees.

At the Singapore ASEAN Foreign Minsisters Meeting this week, the North Korean Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho, met with the Chinese Minister and his delegation. South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa met with Sergei Lavrov's delegation from Russia, and separately, with Taro Kono's delegation from Japan. Late reports are that Pompeo and Wang met also.

It is relevant in respect to the timing and reciprocity issues, that Pompeo is being reported in the South Korean media this morning as having invited Seo Hun, the S.Korean National Intelligence Director, to a previously undisclosed meeting in Washington D.C. last week. At that meeting it is said that Pompeo requested that South Korea refrain from pressing the pace on the desired declaration for an end to the Korean conflict, and the same for Korean requests to ease the sanctions regime. It is also reported by A News, in South Korea, that a similar request was made by Pompeo, in a phone call to Cho Myung Kyun the South Korean Unification Minister. (See my July 22 article below on Chung's visit with John Bolton in Washington, D.C., South Korean National Security Advisor's visit to DC - A Mistake?)

On August 2, South Korean A News reported that there will be no exception to the sanctions, and that a South Korean waiver request for the North South Liaison Office proposed to be opened at Kaeseong, North Korea, was refused. Statements from Anthony Ruggiero at the NSC, and also from Cory Gardner at the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, indicated that sanctions relief would not be forthcoming.