South Korean opposition rivals Ahn and Yoon team up for election
With less than a week to go, partnership deals blow to ruling party’s Lee
by KIM JAEWON, Nikkei staff writer
March 3, 2022 09:08 JST
SEOUL — Two opposition candidates for South Korea’s presidency on Thursday said they will forge an alliance to battle the ruling party’s contender, with less than a week before the election.
Ahn Cheol-soo of the centrist People’s Party announced that he would support Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party to achieve a change of government. Their alliance is seen as a blow to the chances of Lee Jae-myung, of the Democratic Party, who is closely chasing Yoon in opinion polls...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/South-Korea-election/South-Korean-opposition-rivals-Ahn-and-Yoon-team-up-for-election
Bad news for democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung. Polls indicate that the race is within the margin of error. Ahn’s agreement to ally himself with Yoon makes it more difficult for Lee to win with final votes at the polls to occur March 9. Ahn’s agreement with Yoon, will probably add as much as four percent to Yoon’s margin. There was one KSOI poll which was an outlier showing Lee with an 8 percent advantage a couple of days ago. Other polls conceivably biased in Yoon’s favor showed Yoon with a one to four point advantage. No doubt Yoon’s advisers understood the automated poll’s biases, and were forced to meet Ahn’s terms which are not disclosed as yet, as far as I can tell.
This deal reflects poorly on Ahn, as evidence lately disclosed in investigative journalist reports show clear evidence of Yoon’s wife and mother in law participating in a stock manipulation scheme, (alleged to have occurred before Yoon formed a relationship with with his wife). The scheme was over ten years ago, but the circumstantial evidence suggests later prosecution manipulation of the investigation to keep Yoon’s wife out of prison. It is also alleged that this is part of a larger pattern of prosecution political corruption connected to Yoon.
My theory is that Ahn knows Yoon and his party are in deep trouble. If Yoon wins the presidential election, and massive opposition street politics return to South Korea, an impeachment later may work to Ahn’s political advantage. I’m hoping that the progressive candidate Lee wins against the new odds. No more polls allowed this close to election day.
Progressives in South Korea describe this race as democracy v. a return to authoritarian government by the corrupt special interests (dictatorship really), rather than a campaign over progressive v. conservative governance. It will be a sad and disappointing day in South Korea if Yoon wins. I think Yoon revealed his dominant and intolerant attitude in negotiations with Ahn before they reached this agreement at the eleventh hour. Yoon only conceded to Ahn’s terms because he is desperate to regain control of the judicial administration in South Korea to keep himself, his family and political mentors and cronies out of prison. If Yoon wins the election I predict he will marginalize Ahn no matter what his nominal position in the government. I’m sure Yoon’s followers in Japan and the US are overjoyed by the latest news. Yoon is clearly a fan of the Japanese and will completely reverse South Korea’s efforts to steer an independent foreign policy course based upon South Korean national interests.
March 6 Update: Early voting in South Korea is reported at 36 percent
This indicates voters are very motivated. Over 16 million votes were cast. Democratic party analysts believe that this will be in their favor. Late polls up to the Mar 3 cut off showed less than a one percent difference between the two major candidates. There are conflicting opinions about the impact of Ahn Cheol-soo dropping from the race in support of a so called conservative unity ticket. Less than a week before balloting began, Ahn declared that there would not be a unity ticket and negotiations were broken off. In fact, Ahn said at a rally that if one pressed the button for Yoon on the ballot, a year later they would want to cut that finger off, or words to that effect. After the surprise announcement of his withdrawal from the race, the morning after the last televised debate, there was some bitter and sarcastic criticism of his sell out of “new politics.” He was reminded of his commitment to congruence between word and deed, and now is regarded as a hypocrite, particularly with regard to his comments on removing corruption from government administration, which obviously won’t occur with a Yoon presidency. Numbers from a hypothetical survey showed that Lee would get 31.2 percent of Ahn’s votes, Yoon would get 29.2 percent and the remaining Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung would get 8 percent. The impact on the election outcome would then be neutral.
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