A recent article in Responsible Statecraft, by Daniel Larison, examined the foreign policy implications of a possible Yoon Seok-yeol election to the presidency this March 9:
The South Korean presidential election next month will have significant implications for both U.S. and South Korean foreign policies.
Depending on which candidate wins next month, South Korean foreign policy could become considerably more hawkish and combative toward both North Korea and China. If conservative opposition candidate Yoon Suk-yeol prevails, a renewed emphasis on North Korea’s denuclearization and a rejection of the engagement policy of the Moon administration threaten to undo all the gains of the last several years and put the U.S. and South Korea back on the path to heightened tensions and a new crisis on the peninsula. If the Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung wins, there is likely to be much more continuity in South Korean policy, but that could also mean increased friction with a Biden administration that seems to have little interest in resolving outstanding disputes with the North. No matter who wins, the U.S. will need to manage its relationship with Seoul more carefully and attentively than it has done in recent years.
After elections, South Korea could become more hawkish, combative; Daniel Larison Feb. 14, 2021, Responsibe Statecraft;
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/14/after-elections-south-korea-could-become-more-hawkish-combative/
Pretty straightforward analysis of the foreign policy implications of the March 9 presidential election. By limiting itself to foreign policy, the dicey issues of Yoon's politicization of the administration of justice in South Korea are avoided. His family's alleged financial corruption is also avoided.
Few people are willing to examine the circumstances surrounding investigations and prosecutions particularly involving political figures or major financial scandals in South Korea. Most media take the results of investigation and judicial outcomes at face value without questioning them. The truth is administration of justice in South Korea under Yoon's tutelage as prosecutor general became even more politicized and arbitrary than under the two previous authoritarian administrations. Legal reforms limiting prosecution offices' authority to investigate were implemented in 2021 by the democratic super majority legislature. Yoon has indicated his intent to void such reforms, and further to make the office of Prosecutor General independent of any outside control by the Justice Ministry or any independent body such as the Gongsujeo (office for investigation of crimes by high government officials).
Yoon's statements and those of his wife in regard to their critics and political rivals suggest an intent to retaliate against any judges, prosecutors, journalists or politicians who advocate that investigations of alleged corruption by Yoon's offices, colleagues, or family members need to proceed rather than be stuck in limbo as they have during his tenure as Prosecutor General, and now again, during the presidential campaign.
Yoon has stated an intent to investigate and prosecute outgoing President Moon Jae-in, although he never specified what the charges might be. He has also accused presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of corruption during the Daejangdong real estate scandal without a shred of evidence. Current reports in independent media in South Korea suggest that those under investigation are virtually all from the conservative side of the house associated with the former Park Geun-hye administration.
Yoon allegedly recently authored an article in Foreign Policy. One must seriously doubt he is capable of writing such an article, in spite of its slavish adherence to US and Japanese agendas. He has no foreign policy experience whatsoever. He has never been elected to public office. His statements suggest he will return South Korea to a quisling semicolonial status under the direction of the US and Japan if he is elected. The corruption of the republic and the return to authoritarianism will be virtually assured by his election. Yoon's politically problematic presidential campaign is a red flag suggesting that descriptions of South Korea as a "resilient democracy" in western media are more of a myth than fact.
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