North Korea's missile testing blunder

The North Korean ICBM testing program appears to have begun before the March 9 presidential election with elements of the launch vehicle being tested before the election. Those launches were on Feb 25 and Mar 5 at the height of the election campaign in South Korea. The launches followed a a very active series of short range missile tests. In effect, the missile testing program bolstered the hardliner ( 강경파 ) viewpoint in South Korea, which Yoon Seok-yeol represents; the timing of the tests was very poorly considered by North Korea because it probably played a role in Yoon's razor thin election victory. Therefore, the increased missile launches pushed South Korea in the direction of the US-Japan alignment. Yoon is pro-Japan ( 친일파 親日派 ); his father as a professional academic was patronized by Japan. Yoon wants more THAAD missile batteries deployed and participation in the Quad, etc. Yoon rejects the Moon Jae-in "three no's policy" adopted after the first THAAD battery was deployed to repair relations with China. Yoon's proposed policies will provoke a breach in South Korean-Chinese relations and further prolong deadlocked relations with North Korea. This development is ideal from the neo-con perspective in the US.

North Korea's foreign policy analysts failed miserably. China and Russia should have discouraged Kim Jong-un from these missile tests or at least convince him to postpone them until after March 9. A change in South Korea's alignment in northeast Asia is now underway. It is deleterious from the point of view of those in South Korea who sought a step by step trust building approach to negotiations with North Korea rather than the "all or nothing" or "one bundle" or Libyan approach promoted by neo-cons dominating US foreign policy. The latter approach has no chance of success and only encourages greater instability in east Asia. What is lost in most analysis of North-South relations is the natural economic compatibility of the two portions of the Korean nation. The problem isn't just about nuclear weapons. Opening up limited social, cultural, and commercial exchanges between the two Korean states would have tangible diplomatic and security advantages. Unfortunately, South Korea is now back in "lock step," with the US, in a quasi-protectorate posture, where it will play little more than than the role of a US proxy.

While North launches ICBM, South Korea's defense establishment in turmoil

As North Korea finally breaches the substantive provisions of the UN Security Council resolution prohibiting the testing of ICBMs by North Korea, the national security establishment in South Korea is preoccupied with a domestic politiical crisis.

President elect Yoon Seok-yeol, a person with absolutely no military or foreign policy experience has thrown the Ministry of Defense and Joint Chiefs in Yongsan, Seoul, South Korea, into turmoil, in the last week, by pressuring them to get out of their long established building adjacent the old US post there. Yoon says he will definitely not move into the Blue House, and will move into the MND building with his staff on May 10, the date his term as President begins.

The Moon NSC is resisting this move, and is telling Yoon's camp that it will cause a lapse in national security readiness and a threat to the South Korean people. Yoon who seeks advice from a mystic holy man, who some say is a charlatan cult leader, insists that the Moon administration's contentions are groundless. Eleven former Joint Chiefs agree with the Moon administration resistance to the sudden and impetuous declaration by Yoon. Additionally, the move is expected to cause dispersal of military departments to locations across South Korea degrading defense readiness and emergency communications and control. Yoon during his annoucement disclosed the locations of underground bunkers on the MND grounds. There are no provisions under Korean law currently to pay for the move which is expected to cost 1 to 1.6 billion dollars. The national assembly would be required to pass a budget amendment but it is controlled by the democratic party.

(Source 열린공감TV 3.21 다시 주목받는 3년 전 천공의 용산시대 예언! 윤석열 멘토로서 그의 영향력은 어디까지? ) Teacher Cheon Gong says he isn't Yoon Seok-yeol's mentor but has been "coaching" him according to his conscience. The Yongsan era begins! How far does the mentor's influence extend?

Yoon's spiritual advisor considers Yongsan a place invested with metaphysical properties which will revitalize Korea and empower its future. Anonymous sources allegedly in the Yoon camp report that Yoon and his wife had met with "teacher" Cheon Gong whose religious organization "Right Way" is based in Yongsan near the old military garrison grounds. Cheon Gong is a you tuber with his own channel. Contrary to his followers and Yoon's protestations, the mystic leader of the syncretic religious group does believe in feng shui and make predictions about the future. Besides his belief in the mystical qualities of Yongsan real estate, Cheon foresees that Korea will be unified before 2025. Since, Yoon's relationship with the "spiritual leader" became controversial, the alleged monthly meetings are reported to have ceased. Anonymous sources allegedly within Yoon's camp report that Yoon and wife have been seen watching Cheon's youtube videos while traveling in his limo. Yoon's wife Kim Geon-hee has been recorded claiming that she also has spiritual powers.

Yoon's demand that the Ministry of National Defense and Joint Chiefs move out of the MND building is causing a constitutional crisis. Yoon has no constitutional authority as president until he takes office. One thought it would take longer for him to demonstrate his dictatorial inclinations.

Will Yoon's presidential "command group" move into MND building?

Source- 망신당한 윤석열, 김종대 뼈 때렸다! "이런 아마추어가 없다" - 뜬금없는 용산 시대 선언에 시민들 불만.. 김태년 "문재인 대통령과 윤석열 회동 불발.. 대단한 결례" March 16, 알리미 황희두 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00Y1bVq6z_s
Yoon's inner circle on the march (top) oddly resembles a scene from a mob movie (bottom).


See also 김종대 "尹, 용산시대? 헛소리.. 실컷 검토하라" Mar 17, https://news.v.daum.net/v/20220317062057931

From the English language Hankyoreh article on the proposed transfer of the presidential staff to the Ministry of National Defense Building:

Will Yoon's Blue House office move into MND building?
Mar.18,2022 17:07 KST
Hankyoreh

According to Kim, the Yoon camp is telling the Ministry of Defense to empty their main building and move into the Joint Chiefs of Staff building next door. Although it would be theoretically possible for the defense minister himself to move there, “the policy departments of the ministry will reportedly be moved to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration building in Gwacheon,” Kim said, pointing out how Yoon’s plan would scatter these different departments around in different locations.

“The Ministry of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff are optimized as the last bastion and center of national security in case of an emergency,” Kim commented. “For example, if North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon in the air 60 kilometers above Seoul, it becomes an electromagnetic pulse — almost 100 billion won was spent on the construction of this defense facility alone [to defend it from such attacks]. And they want to send it all packing?” Kim asked.

“The Blue House crisis management center also spent a lot of money to build a system to manage terrorist situations, natural disasters, and national security situations, all of which are [now] useless,” Kim added.

Nevertheless, the Yoon camp still believes the move is a good idea.

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1035426.html


The Yoon Seok-yeol "command group"

"Headquarters Command Risk," summarizing the previously known "wife risk," and "mother in law risk."

망신당한 윤석열, 김종대 뼈 때렸다! "이런 아마추어가 없다" - 뜬금없는 용산 시대 선언에 시민들 불만.. 김태년 "문재인 대통령과 윤석열 회동 불발.. 대단한 결례" youtube March 16, 알리미 황희두

Does the president elect Yoon Seok-yeol want to move into the MND building because he's a wanna be dictator or because his shaman told him the feng-shui of the old Japanese colonial outpost is favorable to his rule? His wife had said she wouldn't live in the Blue House. This preliminary annoucement is another example of his absolute incompetence as a leader. The communities of Yongsan and Gwacheon are opposed to the plan. They voted for him.

This is one of many surprises to come. Yoon told the present prosecutor general to resign. Yoon plans on investigating the outgoing current president Moon Jae-in; for what he did not say. Don't worry he'll make something up. Rumors are that he will nominate Na Kyung-won for Foreign Minister. Na's husband allegedly diverted criminal litigation against Yoon's wife and mother-in-law in the past. Yoon's last minute supporter from the National Party, Ahn Chul-soo, had said just a few weeks ago, that anyone who voted for Yoon would cut off the finger that pushed the button on the ballot for Yoon in a year. Will it take that long? Hong Jun-pyo a former conservative presidential candidate said the building where the first family and Blue House national command authority reside isn't the problem, it's the personnel, an oblique reference to Yoon's clique in the PPP party.

The estimated tax cost of moving the Blue House staff is approximately a billion dollars. That doesn't include the adverse impact on commerce in the affected communities. The military expert cited, who has advised former presidents, and the National Assembly, referred to Yoon as an "amateur" using the English term.

Yoon’s motivation has also been speculated to be a concern over alleged “lack of security” for him personally if he were residing at the Blue House. One couldn’t help but notice that the Blue House is located close to the Gwanghwamoon plaza where the largest demonstrations in Seoul took place in 2017. These huge “candlelight revolution” demonstrations ultimately resulted in impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye and brought down her administration. The plaza and the Blue House perimeter require a relatively large police commitment to contain the crowds and control access to the Blue House perimeter wall. One demonstration last fall by conversative opposition groups did result in the militant Taegukki group moving from Gwanghwamun plaza and attempting to scale the Blue House wall resulting in a number of arrests.

One can reasonably foresee that Yoon at some point will be faced with demonstrations similar to the candlelight movement which involved as many as a million people assembling in or near Gwangwhamun. If the Blue House command authority is moved to the MND the narrower rights of way in the former Yongsan garrison area will make blocking access to the Ministry of Defense building far easier. The Samgakchi plaza at the end of Itaewonno will not accommodate such large assemblies.

Given the communications capabilities of the Blue House bunker in times of national emergency, experts and other critics have remarked that the location of the national command authority isn’t just a matter of the president’s personal security but the security of the Republic of Korea and its people as a whole. Yoon’s capricious and arbitrary desire to move the Blue House staff to the MND building is an indicator not only of his lack of competence in such matters, but also his narcissism, and arrogant self centered focus on all issues. Yoon’s behavior in this context has been compared to the actions of a monarch during the Choseon dynasty period.

Addendum 3.20 Why is Arirang News trying so hard to sell this stupid move by Yoon? They uncritically just repeat the misrepresentations by the Yoon camp. Okay so Yoon won't move into the Blue House, and he's telling the MND in Yongsan to get out of their building, and that there will be two new buildings on the old Yongsan Garrison site. Where are the generals going to move? Who is going to pay for this? Other Korean news sources say the cost of the transition will be approximately 1 billion dollars not counting the adverse affect on commerce in the neighboring communities. Doesn't all this need to be authorized by the National Assembly or does the authoritarian Mr. Yoon just order this? The legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. Yoon cuts the department of women and children, and is going to reduce civil service employment rolls to "save money," but he's doing this? Shouldn't the public health challenge of the covid surge be the government's first priority? It's pretty obvious that the move itself will be disruptive in terms of South Korean national security and diaster preparedness.

The ultimate Yoon misrepresentation on this issue is that this area will be more "accessible to the people." How many people have actually been in the Yongsan garrison- Samgakji area. This move is being chosen for exactly the opposite reason. It is easier to block public access to the MND building and its approaches. However, the zoning and building restrictions around the Blue House have been developed to provide better security for the national command center particularly from air and ground attack. This cannot be achieved as well around the MND building because of vertical building construction around the area. This is also a reason why developers and local businesses oppose the move.

비밀의 숲 Stranger, the Kdrama

Title is the Stranger in English, in Korean, the drama title is Secret Forest (as in you can't see the forest for the trees). The Stranger is a compelling drama series. Netflix with English subtitles.

This was my description of season one before the presidential election in South Korea:

I think with the 20/20 hindsight of having studied the corruption and political abuse of the administration of justice in South Korea in the last couple of years, the portrayal of that corruption, and the estrangement of any honest prosecutors from that system because they don’t “play ball,” in this 2017 drama is rather realistic. It’s just a microcosm of the much larger systemic abuses in the justice world in South Korea struggling to put their corrupt leader in power as president on March 9, 2022, to preserve their way of life at the public’s expense.

Season 2:

Even before I finished watching season 2, it was obvious that the character of Woo Tae-ha was based on the former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, who is currently the president elect of South Korea. I know these dramas have the usual disclaimers about any resemblance to real characters or events are coincidental or non-intentional, but the character and his dialogue are what one might imagine. None of the events in the drama are related and are entirely fictional. The power struggle between police and prosecutors over investigative powers is a genuine major political issue in Korea politics.

Woo Tae-ha is played by Choi Moo-sung who also had a supporting role in Mr. Sunshine. His acting is excellent. His compelling performance in Noktu Flower, about the Korean Tong Hak rebellion is one of the best historical drama series I've ever seen.

The other actors in The Stranger are also outstanding. I posted this here rather than Asian group, because political comments are discouraged there. The investigation of crimes and the administration of justice in South Korea are totally political as depicted in The Stranger. Yoon's election ensures that the so called Republic of Lawyers is not over.


열린공감TV 열린공감TV 1 day ago March 12 다시한번 안내말씀 드립니다.
<열린공감TV>를 향한 저들의 각종 고발,고소 건 등에 대응할 정의롭고 역량있는 법조인을 기다립니다. <열린공감TV>법률 자문 및 변호인단은 당장 구성해야할 정도로 도움이 필요한 부분입니다. 현직 변호사분들의 적극 참여가 절실히 필요합니다.

- 법률대응팀은 별도의 단톡방 운영 등으로 활동할 계획입니다.
- 사안별로 법률 자문 및 변호 수임 등 소정의 비용 지급 및 계약으로 무료법률 지원이 아닌 정당한 노동의 대가를 지불하겠습니다.
- <열린공감TV>로 고소.고발된 사건은 대 부분 정치적 사안이며 보도를 통한 내용에 대해 허위사실, 명예훼손, 가처분 등의 민.형사건 입니다. 현재까지는 몇몇 친분있는 정의로운 변호사분들이 도움을 주셔서 임기응변식으로 사건을 맡겼지만 이제는 좀 더 많은 공격이 예상되어 폭 넓은 변호사팀을 구성하고자 합니다.
- 현재까지 진행된 소송에서는 단 한번의 패소도 없었습니다.
- “변호사님, 도움이 필요합니다”

https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxBaF7DzN3Hsu8ummA1tbhDl1lobIS-8kI

Yoon is the worst thing to happen to South Korea since Chun Doo-hwan.

Are there nutria in the rice field?

르 몽드 이것들이...콜걸이라고

(Source- Le Monde Mar 8)

Can Yoon sue/prosecute Le Monde?

More evidence of Yoon's role in Hwacheon Daeyoo financial scandal investigation

Newstapa acquired the audio file of a conversation between Kim Man-bae, a key figure in the Daejang-dong case, with an acquaintance in September last year, just before the prosecution's investigation. While explaining the details of the Daejang-dong project in detail, Mr. Kim said, “The Busan Savings Bank case was resolved through Attorney Park Young-soo and Prosecutor Yoon Seok-yeol at the time;" and "Because of the Mayor of Seongnam, the Daejang-dong enterprise experienced difficulties" (due to financial and construction demands made on behalf of the city by Lee Jae-myung that the investment group did not want to fulfill).*

Other recordings disclosed recently elsewhere on the internet show that Yoon and Park Young-soo, had been drinking buddies for over thirty years. God help the Korean people if Yoon Seok-yeol is elected president of South Korea.


*대장동 사건 핵심 인물인 김만배 씨가 검찰 수사 직전인 지난해 9월 지인과 나눈 대화 음성파일을 뉴스타파가 입수했습니다. 김 씨는 대장동 사업 진행 내용을 자세히 설명하면서 “박영수 변호사와 윤석열 당시 대검 중수부 검사를 통해 부산저축은행 사건을 해결했다”, “이재명 성남시장 때문에 대장동 사업에 어려움을 겪었다”고 말했습니다.

[김만배 음성파일] "박영수-윤석열 통해 부산저축은행 사건 해결" - 뉴스타파
Mar 6, 2022 Newstapa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrdLAL3AT78

And: “박영수-윤석열 통해 부산저축은행 사건 해결”
한상진 2022년 03월 06일 21시 22분
https://newstapa.org/article/ybGav


.

In surprising turn around Yoon Seok-yeol reaches election unification agreement with Ahn Cheol-soo

A report from Seoul from Nikkei Asia today:

South Korean opposition rivals Ahn and Yoon team up for election
With less than a week to go, partnership deals blow to ruling party’s Lee
by KIM JAEWON, Nikkei staff writer
March 3, 2022 09:08 JST

SEOUL — Two opposition candidates for South Korea’s presidency on Thursday said they will forge an alliance to battle the ruling party’s contender, with less than a week before the election.

Ahn Cheol-soo of the centrist People’s Party announced that he would support Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party to achieve a change of government. Their alliance is seen as a blow to the chances of Lee Jae-myung, of the Democratic Party, who is closely chasing Yoon in opinion polls...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/South-Korea-election/South-Korean-opposition-rivals-Ahn-and-Yoon-team-up-for-election

Bad news for democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung. Polls indicate that the race is within the margin of error. Ahn’s agreement to ally himself with Yoon makes it more difficult for Lee to win with final votes at the polls to occur March 9. Ahn’s agreement with Yoon, will probably add as much as four percent to Yoon’s margin. There was one KSOI poll which was an outlier showing Lee with an 8 percent advantage a couple of days ago. Other polls conceivably biased in Yoon’s favor showed Yoon with a one to four point advantage. No doubt Yoon’s advisers understood the automated poll’s biases, and were forced to meet Ahn’s terms which are not disclosed as yet, as far as I can tell.

This deal reflects poorly on Ahn, as evidence lately disclosed in investigative journalist reports show clear evidence of Yoon’s wife and mother in law participating in a stock manipulation scheme, (alleged to have occurred before Yoon formed a relationship with with his wife). The scheme was over ten years ago, but the circumstantial evidence suggests later prosecution manipulation of the investigation to keep Yoon’s wife out of prison. It is also alleged that this is part of a larger pattern of prosecution political corruption connected to Yoon.

My theory is that Ahn knows Yoon and his party are in deep trouble. If Yoon wins the presidential election, and massive opposition street politics return to South Korea, an impeachment later may work to Ahn’s political advantage. I’m hoping that the progressive candidate Lee wins against the new odds. No more polls allowed this close to election day.

Progressives in South Korea describe this race as democracy v. a return to authoritarian government by the corrupt special interests (dictatorship really), rather than a campaign over progressive v. conservative governance. It will be a sad and disappointing day in South Korea if Yoon wins. I think Yoon revealed his dominant and intolerant attitude in negotiations with Ahn before they reached this agreement at the eleventh hour. Yoon only conceded to Ahn’s terms because he is desperate to regain control of the judicial administration in South Korea to keep himself, his family and political mentors and cronies out of prison. If Yoon wins the election I predict he will marginalize Ahn no matter what his nominal position in the government. I’m sure Yoon’s followers in Japan and the US are overjoyed by the latest news. Yoon is clearly a fan of the Japanese and will completely reverse South Korea’s efforts to steer an independent foreign policy course based upon South Korean national interests.


March 6 Update: Early voting in South Korea is reported at 36 percent

This indicates voters are very motivated. Over 16 million votes were cast. Democratic party analysts believe that this will be in their favor. Late polls up to the Mar 3 cut off showed less than a one percent difference between the two major candidates. There are conflicting opinions about the impact of Ahn Cheol-soo dropping from the race in support of a so called conservative unity ticket. Less than a week before balloting began, Ahn declared that there would not be a unity ticket and negotiations were broken off. In fact, Ahn said at a rally that if one pressed the button for Yoon on the ballot, a year later they would want to cut that finger off, or words to that effect. After the surprise announcement of his withdrawal from the race, the morning after the last televised debate, there was some bitter and sarcastic criticism of his sell out of “new politics.” He was reminded of his commitment to congruence between word and deed, and now is regarded as a hypocrite, particularly with regard to his comments on removing corruption from government administration, which obviously won’t occur with a Yoon presidency. Numbers from a hypothetical survey showed that Lee would get 31.2 percent of Ahn’s votes, Yoon would get 29.2 percent and the remaining Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung would get 8 percent. The impact on the election outcome would then be neutral.