Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Ferry boat
Ferry Boat by Na Hun-ah.
Oh, My love is leaving, loaded aboard the ferry,
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
His coat strings in hand, blowing in the sea breeze,
Don't go, Don't go i said, even tho i grabbed and tried to hang on,
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
the departing ferry left only foam in its wake.
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
Oh, My love is leaving, loaded aboard the ferry,
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
His coat strings in hand, blowing in the sea breeze,
Don't go, Don't go i said, even tho i grabbed and tried to hang on,
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
the departing ferry left only foam in its wake.
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
Oh ho, Don't go, Don't go! I said,
Even tho i grabbed and tried to hang on,
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya -aw ya di ya)
the departing ferry left only foam in its wake,
Only foam in its wake.
(aw ya di ya - aw ya di ya)
Nice performance by Kim Yong-im. 김용임 '연락선'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YUOj6s67CM
Shincheonji cult and the explosion of covid 19 cases in South Korea
edited and revised 2.27
According to a BBC article:
"Shincheonji contributed significantly to the sharp rise in the number of patients in Korea," Won Suk-choi of the division of infectious diseases at the Korea University College of Medicine, told the BBC, but he also warns that "the situation Korea is currently experiencing can happen anywhere in the world".*
*Coronavirus: Why did infections shoot up in South Korea? Feb. 25, by Andreas Illmer, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51609840
There is an attempt by Sinchionji related sources to deny any responsibility for the rapid spread of the disease to Daegu and Cheongdo, South Korea. The contagious disease had already started spreading widely in China by the time the last of the church/cult members finally left Wuhan. By then the South Korean government was already well aware of the epidemic as evidenced by the advance warning to stay home rather than travel over the lunar holiday period starting January 25. It's fairly clear from the BBC article that a key event in Cheongdo, South Korea, occurred at the end of the January. Cheongdo was a nexus site for contagion in addition to the Sincheonji church in Daegu. While the source of the infection to the so called super spreader "case 31" from the Sincheonchi Church in Daegu, is unproven, it is likely that communication of the infection took place as a result of the church's evangelical activity in Wuhan, China. Case 31 denied going to the funeral event, but admitted going to a public sauna in Cheongdo.
A South China Morning Post article quotes a source that Sincheonji members in Wuhan had stopped attending worship services "by December." Some members may have stayed in Wuhan for weeks afterward, while the epidemic raged. According to the SCMP, "She said the group was continuing to share sermons and teachings online, but most members had returned home at the start of the Lunar New Year holiday in late January.*"
*Coronavirus: secretive South Korean church linked to outbreak held meetings in Wuhan until December.
Around 200 Shincheonji Church of Jesus members continued to meet in the Chinese city amid rumours of virus, but ‘no one took [claims] seriously’ at first. Around half the Covid-19 cases in South Korea have been linked to members of the religious group
Mimi Lau, Published: 10:24pm, 25 Feb, 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3052322/coronavirus-secretive-south-korean-church-linked-outbreak-held
At first, the Sincheonji cult erased web evidence they had a congregation in Wuhan; told their members that in spite of having members in Wuhan that may have returned to South Korea, that no one was infected and that they were protected by god; that righteous believers did not need to wear masks, etc. A possible scenario emerges where persons connected to the Wuhan church group returned to South Korea and spread the virus before the South Korean quarantine measures were put in effect for Korean travelers returning from China.
It is likely that members involved in Sincheonchi in Daegu interacted with the Wuhan Sincheonji travelers and when they experienced cold like or flu like symptoms simply were in denial and kept going about their business: going to Sunday services; meeting prospects from the language school across the street from the church for Chinese ethnic Koreans (so they can read and understand Bible passages); and doing "voluntary work" at the local hospital, etc. The known Sincheonji spreader, Case 31, went to the Daegu church four times, two times asymptomatic, two times symptomatic. She probably wasn't the only one. The funeral at the Cheongdo hospital funeral service facility for the sect founder's brother was believed to have drawn travelers from overseas perhaps including China. Another news report in South Korea said “case 31” refused covid 19 screening twice after being symptomatic. One news report alleged that the leader's brother died from “pneumonia." The entire psychiatric ward at the Cheongdo hospital is now reported to have been infected with the virus. Four patients from the Cheongdo hospital have now died from the virus. The government's investigation of the funeral service attendees still is ongoing.
According to earlier South Korean reports, church membership lists provided by or taken by legal government process from Sincheonji congregations in South Korea for epidemiological screening and tracking didn’t include the lists of young people in the teens and twenties being recruited by the organization through their bible study program. Apparently this is now remedied, but approximately half of the additional 70,000 persons, have not yet been tracked down by local health authorities to determine their status. The estimated total number of people then related to the Sincheonji church is not 240,000 but closer to 310,000 persons. In other words, people waiting to become members are not members yet.
If one is familiar with the modus operandi and psychology of Korean congregations like this, they can be secretive, and jealous of their “human resources,” which are often taken from rival church congregations. Their "evangelism" takes on a predatory characteristic in the view of rival congregations sometimes infiltrated for recruitment purposes. People and practices are treated as proprietary interests and jealously guarded. On the other hand, members uncooperative disposition to provide information is often attributed to the group's "unpopularity," with the outside world. This appears to present a major difficulty in controlling the epidemic. The group's practices including close physical contact in crowded venues, instructions that preventative masks are a sacrilege, that members are protected by their faith from the virus, contributed to rapid contagion. There have been reports that when the church's facilities were closed, members continued to meet privately. Government warnings to church members to exercise self restraint and not go outside to public places have been ignored in documented cases where members continued to expose others and were later determined to have the virus.
Here is another instance involving a public health worker:
South Koreans vented anger after an official at a Daegu public health center that carries out virus tests continued to work even after he was told to get tested. He revealed he was a member of the Daegu Shincheonji church only after the test showed he was infected, Daegu officials said.*
* https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-southkorea-church/secretive-church-at-center-of-south-koreas-explosive-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKCN20L0Q8
Monday, February 24, 2020
Political impact of the Daegu-Gyeongbuk covid 19 cluster
The Sincheonchi organization has declared it is in cooperation with the government public health effort to contain the covid 19 epidemic. A representative of the organization deplored the hate and discrimination it said it was experiencing as a result of recent events. Yet, As of news reports a several hours ago, the Sincheonchi cult organization in Seoul was uncooperative in providing a complete list of their members in Seoul, Korea. The cult organization there was being encouraged in their resistance to lawful public health measures by the charlatan minister, Jeon Kwang-hoon, who leads the unrelated Korean Christian Conference and directed the unlawful "Taegukki" (Korean flag) demonstration in Gwanghwamun last weekend. After the imposition of a state of emergency by the national government in South Korea, warrants will be sought against the Sincheonchi organisation for the relevant information needed for epidemiological tracking. Assemblies of persons in Gwangwhamun and other large public plazas in Seoul are now declared illegal for public health reasons. A group of persons said to be representing Daegu was present at the Gwanghwamun plaza demonstration this weekend. The mayor of Seoul, Park Won-soon, confronted the entire gathered assembly personally as to the unlawful nature of the gathering in light of the public health emergency. He was booed and hissed.
In public statements on the radio, February 22, Seoul's mayor warned that police would blockade the public venues on February 29 when another Taegukki assembly led by the demogogue minister and his far right acolytes is anticipated. A confrontation is to be expected in which physical force would become a likely outcome to remove and disperse unlawful demonstrators violating the new health ban. Nominally, the Sincheonchi and Jeon Kwang-hoon are antagonistic to each other. Jeon Kwang-hoon is goading the Sincheonchi not to cooperate with the government, as well as his own followers. The mayor stated he suspected Jeon was not in his right mind.
If one views the entire situation in context, with the upcoming April 15 elections; US pressure on South Korea to cough up additional billions for defense cost sharing; the continuing thousands of far right demonstrators and Jeon himself, in Gwanghwamoon waving their US flags a stones throw from the US embassy building; the encouragement of resistance to public health measures by the religious right appears to be a concerted effort to take advantage of the public health crisis in South Korea to unseat the democratically elected administration of Moon Jae-in.
DongA.com reported this morning that Minister Jeon was arrested on grounds of violating South Korean election campaign laws.
Update Feb. 28:
Minister Jeon is the leader of the Korean Christian Council. He was arrested a few days ago for violating South Korean election campaign laws. A brief statement he made while being transported from the police station in handcuffs said the planned illegal demonstration planned for this Saturday would not place until Sunday, March 1, and would be a “worship service.” The religious leader is associated with the right wing opposition Liberty Korea Party, now reformed as the United Future Party. Hwang Kyo-ahn, the former prime minister and LKP leader has appeared as a speaker at Minister Jeon’s Taegukki weekend demonstrations. The demonstrations call for President Moon to resign or be impeached because, allegedly he is a communist symphathizer and tyrant.
Now Jeon tries to frame his illegal demonstration in violation of the emergency public health ban on assemblies in Seoul’s major public plaza’s as “religious freedom” issue. During last week’s illegal demonstration, Jeon ridiculed the Shincheonji cult for closing its churches in response to hundreds of its members being positive for corona virus. Jeon encouraged resistance to the government public health efforts.
The public defiance of government public health efforts during the health emergency is a misguided and dangerous attempt to discredit and destabilize the government ahead of the general election April 15.
Update Feb. 29:
An MBC 2 news broadcast today reported that the religious opposition movement (Pan National People's Struggle Headquarters) sometimes referred to as the Taegukki movement, organized by Minister Jeon, of the Korean Christian Council, did not demonstrate in Gwanghwamun today heeding government warnings and declining to challenge the authority of the Mayor of Seoul to enforce the health ban on public assemblies in the main public plazas of Seoul. While Minister Jeon is in jail, the alternative leader of the group, Minister Jeong Bang-un, lead a unified worship service in a church in the Sangbuk Gu neighborhood.
Hwang Kyo-ahn, the leader of the United Future Party opposition was noticeably present at the public March 1 commemoration ceremonies in a bipartisan display of patriotism with other government officials and representatives. As documented in another broadcast, Hwang had grown more circumspect in his criticism of the government response to the worsening healthcare crisis in South Korea. As the case numbers increased he became more vague and less strident in answers concerning what should be done in response to the epidemic.
Borrowing from the analysis in Barbara Tuchman's The Proud Tower, concerning the Dreyfus Affair in late 19th Century France, without a strong authoritarian leader or a meddling foreign power, a democratic country won't be upset. The "stuff of a dictator" is in jail, the putative "man on horseback" displayed the soul of a second lieutenant, and the streets of Gwanghwamun were unusually empty and quiet today.
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Seoul- Right wing demonstrators violate emergency health ban
The mayor of Seoul, Park Won-soon, personally confronted far right wing Christian fundamentalists and Taegukki members in Gwanghwamun Plaza today for violating the new health restrictions on assembly there. The mayor requested that the crowd of demonstrators exercise self restraint and leave the plaza. The Taegukki members carried their organization's flags and the Christian fundamentalists opposing Moon Jae-in carried Taegukki's and US flags. They jeered and booed the democratic party mayor.
Minister Jeon Kwang-hoon, the leader and organizer of the Taegukki demonstrations, said even if he caught the covid 19 virus, he'd still be a patriot. The mayor had apparently determined not to physically force evacuation of the demonstration although police were deployed in substantial numbers. Police posted notices of the illegality of the assembly, and participants were advised by loudspeaker of the fines for violation of the law. The mayor appealed to the crowd to cooperate with authorities in an attempt to control the outbreak of the virus.
Son Hak-kyu, representative of the center-right bareun mirae party, called for consideration of postponement of April 15 general elections due to the epidemic. At the same time far right groups ignore the new public health ban on assemblies of persons in public plazas in Seoul. At present the Blue House is not considering postponement of the general election. According to the YTN broadcast, such a postponement, by law, is the prerogative of the president in the event of natural disaster which precludes the elections as scheduled. Regardless of circumstances, such a development would be subject to political blow back. Inevitably to be used as evidence of the far right claim that President Moon is a dictator and the tool of the communist north. Other parties might view a postponement of the election as advantageous or not depending on their situations. The analysts on the YTN program felt that the administration still had time to see how the course of the contagion proceeded before being forced whether to consider such a measure.
Monday, February 17, 2020
South Korea- Island State
The night time photo of the peninsula is used to emphasize the backward nature of North Korea's economy and the superiority of the free countries. Secretary Pompeo used this graphic in his recent Munich Security Conference presentation. Yet, at the same time the photo demonstrates how complete the separation of North and South Korea is. South Korea is, because of that separation, reduced to an island state cut off from it's historical land connections to the continent of Asia. This is in keeping with the US and Japanese "island strategy" to contain China's expanding influence and military power. I don't think it could be more vividly demonstrated.
Secretary of Defense Esper's presentation at the Munich Security Conference, on March 15, emphasized the Chinese threat:
"I continue to stress to my friends in Europe -- and just this past week again at the NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels -- that America's concerns about Beijing's commercial and military expansion should be their concerns as well," Esper said.*
*World must 'wake up to the challenges presented by China,' says Defense Secretary
By Vivian Salama, CNN, Updated 6:59 AM ET, Sat February 15, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/15/politics/china-challenges-esper-intl/index.html
The current South Korean administration is really not all that interested in US anti-China policies.
In the same program, Thae Yong-ho's right wing Liberty Korea Party election campaign announcement received tacit US promotion and endorsement in the guise of another North Korean cyber hacking news item. Thae will appraently be seeking a district seat in the April 15 general election in South Korea. He is a former North Korean embassy official who defected in 2016. VOA reported that Thae's hand phone, among others, had been hacked by North Korea. Clearly portions of this particular broadcast included thinly veiled interference in South Korean domestic politics by the VOA.
Saturday, February 8, 2020
The new W76-2 low-yield Trident submarine warhead and North Korea?
William Arkin, one of the authors of the FAS article on the new “tactical” warhead on a strategic nuclear missile (which doesn’t make any sense) appeared on the Democracy Now program. He made it clear the new nuclear weapon is more likely to be targeted at North Korea or Iran.* Firing such a weapon at Russia makes no sense at all. Arkin explores the convoluted logic of theories related to such a limited nuclear attack on Russian targets in the article.
*US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead
Posted on Jan.29, 2020 in Nuclear Weapons, Russia, United States by Hans M. Kristensen
By William M. Arkin* and Hans M. Kristensen
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2020/01/w76-2deployed/
It's quite likely that a target of the new "tactical" nuclear warhead on the submarine launched ballistic missile is North Korea. The weapon appears to be specifically designed to destroy a deeply hardened target in a tactical environment. The US conventional military tactic of “decapitation” of North Korean leadership has been discussed openly in South Korean media in recent years. It never seemed practical, a special operations tactic to resolve a strategic problem.*
*Shin In-Kyun describes North Korean attack scenarios, May 1, 2019
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/05/shin-in-kyun-describes-north-korean.html
Some expert observers of North Korea regardless of their political persuasion regarded the "bloody nose," or any conventional military attack on North Korea as completely "off the table." Potentially, the new Trident low yield nuclear weapon is being deployed for the same decapitation mission. Yet, it looks as if the new Trident warhead would elicit the very response from North Korea that it's use is allegedly designed to preclude, a barrage of ballistic missiles on friendly targets. The unreasonable response one could anticipate from the North Korea leadership, in reaction to a limited "tactical" nuclear attack by the US wouldn’t conform, to the logic or illogic if you prefer, of US nuclear game theory. Coincidentally, authoritative sources emphasized that the US carrier strike force recently deployed to the Indo-Pacific had an ABM mission as there are multiple aegis equipped surface warships associated with the carrier.*
*Korean focus on Carrier Strike Group deployment? Jan. 23, 2020
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/01/korean-focus-on-carrier-strike-group.html
Additionally, General John E. Hyten, Vice Chairman, JCS, made a widely circulated public statement about that time that he had 100 percent confidence in the strike force’s ability to deal with North Korean missile threats. The presentation of a potential first strike by a low yield nuclear weapon combined with a highly effective ABM capability suggests in the case of North Korea, a scenario, where a first strike, such as a decapitation strike, could be undertaken with confidence, if not impunity. This is not the case, because the irregular trajectories and terminal guidance of several of the North Korean short range ballistic missiles fired last year presented detection and tracking problems for the US, South Korea and Japan. This was the observation of media military and intelligence analysts in South Korea, which exacerbated concerns about the temporary South Korean withdrawal from GSOMIA, an intelligence sharing agreement among the three countries directed exactly at just such a threat. For those who may consider discussion of this scenario off base, keep in mind recent events involving the assassination of General Soleimani, which was a type of decapitation mission, and then the apparent absence of any effective defense against the subsequent Iranian ballistic missile barrage. These nominally unrelated events reflect national security thinking in Washington, D.C. and are intended to convey a message to North Korea.
In any case, if one were to consider the response from North Korea due to a “decapitation” attack with a small yield weapon like the W-76-2, let’s assume it succeeds with the precision and accuracy the new weapons are believed to have. Then in the aftermath of such an attack there remains a nuclear armed North Korea with unknown military commanders in unknown bunkers deciding what the response, if any, should be. Perhaps following US game theory they would decline to escalate the nuclear conflict. Or perhaps they wouldn’t. On the other hand, if the location of the bunker, or Kim Jong-un, was not precisely ascertained, and consequently the chairman or his successor survived, even for only for a brief time, a question arises about what would happen at that point. If one considers the desperation of the moment, the uncertainty, the confusion, and the likelihood of total destruction at the hands of the US military's vastly superior nuclear forces, what is the likely reaction of the North Korean leader? This thought arises, “Even though futilely suicidal, would he not respond in kind with nuclear armed ballistic missiles capable of reaching US bases in the region, where US and allied forces and command and control elements were plainly vulnerable?” Is this not in fact, exactly what would occur, given the ideological basis of North Korean communist doctrine and its self conscious role as the sacrificial victim of great power imperialism? Does the current deployment of US anti-ballistic missile forces in the region really give 100 percent assurance that this wouldn't be an effective response?
Conclusion, a “decapitation” attack with a “smaller” tactical nuclear warhead by the US would likely eventuate in a series of nuclear weapons detonating in the region.
*US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead
Posted on Jan.29, 2020 in Nuclear Weapons, Russia, United States by Hans M. Kristensen
By William M. Arkin* and Hans M. Kristensen
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2020/01/w76-2deployed/
It's quite likely that a target of the new "tactical" nuclear warhead on the submarine launched ballistic missile is North Korea. The weapon appears to be specifically designed to destroy a deeply hardened target in a tactical environment. The US conventional military tactic of “decapitation” of North Korean leadership has been discussed openly in South Korean media in recent years. It never seemed practical, a special operations tactic to resolve a strategic problem.*
*Shin In-Kyun describes North Korean attack scenarios, May 1, 2019
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/05/shin-in-kyun-describes-north-korean.html
Some expert observers of North Korea regardless of their political persuasion regarded the "bloody nose," or any conventional military attack on North Korea as completely "off the table." Potentially, the new Trident low yield nuclear weapon is being deployed for the same decapitation mission. Yet, it looks as if the new Trident warhead would elicit the very response from North Korea that it's use is allegedly designed to preclude, a barrage of ballistic missiles on friendly targets. The unreasonable response one could anticipate from the North Korea leadership, in reaction to a limited "tactical" nuclear attack by the US wouldn’t conform, to the logic or illogic if you prefer, of US nuclear game theory. Coincidentally, authoritative sources emphasized that the US carrier strike force recently deployed to the Indo-Pacific had an ABM mission as there are multiple aegis equipped surface warships associated with the carrier.*
*Korean focus on Carrier Strike Group deployment? Jan. 23, 2020
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/01/korean-focus-on-carrier-strike-group.html
Additionally, General John E. Hyten, Vice Chairman, JCS, made a widely circulated public statement about that time that he had 100 percent confidence in the strike force’s ability to deal with North Korean missile threats. The presentation of a potential first strike by a low yield nuclear weapon combined with a highly effective ABM capability suggests in the case of North Korea, a scenario, where a first strike, such as a decapitation strike, could be undertaken with confidence, if not impunity. This is not the case, because the irregular trajectories and terminal guidance of several of the North Korean short range ballistic missiles fired last year presented detection and tracking problems for the US, South Korea and Japan. This was the observation of media military and intelligence analysts in South Korea, which exacerbated concerns about the temporary South Korean withdrawal from GSOMIA, an intelligence sharing agreement among the three countries directed exactly at just such a threat. For those who may consider discussion of this scenario off base, keep in mind recent events involving the assassination of General Soleimani, which was a type of decapitation mission, and then the apparent absence of any effective defense against the subsequent Iranian ballistic missile barrage. These nominally unrelated events reflect national security thinking in Washington, D.C. and are intended to convey a message to North Korea.
In any case, if one were to consider the response from North Korea due to a “decapitation” attack with a small yield weapon like the W-76-2, let’s assume it succeeds with the precision and accuracy the new weapons are believed to have. Then in the aftermath of such an attack there remains a nuclear armed North Korea with unknown military commanders in unknown bunkers deciding what the response, if any, should be. Perhaps following US game theory they would decline to escalate the nuclear conflict. Or perhaps they wouldn’t. On the other hand, if the location of the bunker, or Kim Jong-un, was not precisely ascertained, and consequently the chairman or his successor survived, even for only for a brief time, a question arises about what would happen at that point. If one considers the desperation of the moment, the uncertainty, the confusion, and the likelihood of total destruction at the hands of the US military's vastly superior nuclear forces, what is the likely reaction of the North Korean leader? This thought arises, “Even though futilely suicidal, would he not respond in kind with nuclear armed ballistic missiles capable of reaching US bases in the region, where US and allied forces and command and control elements were plainly vulnerable?” Is this not in fact, exactly what would occur, given the ideological basis of North Korean communist doctrine and its self conscious role as the sacrificial victim of great power imperialism? Does the current deployment of US anti-ballistic missile forces in the region really give 100 percent assurance that this wouldn't be an effective response?
Conclusion, a “decapitation” attack with a “smaller” tactical nuclear warhead by the US would likely eventuate in a series of nuclear weapons detonating in the region.
Monday, February 3, 2020
Thae Yong Ho on the corona virus and public health in North Korea
Sanctions, privatization, and "self sufficient" agriculture in North Korea will promote the spread of the new coronavirus according to Thae Yong Ho. With virtually no fertilizer or fuel due to sanctions, farmers and others use excrement for fertilizer, and have animals living with them in their living quarters.
Uncharacteristically for the outspoken opponent of the North Korean dictatorship, Thae recommended cooperation by South Korea and the international community to provide equipment, facilities and organization to contain the Wuhan virus. He said the North Korean public health resources are wholly inadequate to cope with the health care challenge and noted the spread of the Asian swine flu virus across the DMZ into South Korea last year as proof of Northern incapacity.
Thae said that it was necessary for the North's communist leader to swallow his pride and request assistance.
In today's analysis, Thae points out the Chinese are the airway for North Korea in a time when sanctions restrict access to resources and capital. This is the peak season for smuggling across the Tumen and Amur rivers for the Jangmajang private enterpreneurs in North Korea, when the rivers are frozen. According to Thae the border guards and army will not be able to stop the smuggling across the northern frontier to bring Chinese goods to the private marketplaces. So the official quarantine at the border from China will not be effective. In addition North Korea's lack of public health facilities, equipment, supplies and skills will make definitive identification, diagnosis and treatment of any of those infected difficult.
Due to the state of chronic malnutrition among workers and children, immune systems are weakened, and recovery from infection will be problematic. According to Thae if the epidemic penetrates to the heart of North Korea, Kim is concerned that the military could collapse. Construction projects which heavily depend on concentrations of manual labor both from the Army and civilians will need to be stopped. The party policy of reviving the economy by self reliant methods and the "frontal breakthrough" policy are in jeopardy of complete failure per Thae. (8:27) In fact, he says it is all but certain.
The official closing of the North Korean border with China cuts off both the tourist trade and the export of labor both of which supply North Korea with dearly needed foreign cash. Kim is actually in a position of supplication to China at this point. Awkwardly, he has officially stopped international commerce because of the Wuhan virus but at the same time he is hat in hand, asking China for continued financial support. A preferable alternative according to Thae is to turn to the South for the assistance. Kim needs to cope with the Wuhan virus which North Korea is otherwise incapable of responding to as a practical matter because of sanctions and diplomatic isolation. In this episode, Thae recommended that the South Korean government take the initiative and offer to assist North Korea with the public health challenges presented. While China and North Korea may be as "close as lips and teeth," as the Chinese saying goes, it is the Korean people who are family in fact, and should work together to resolve the situation. Thae acknowledges that the offers of assistance cannot take place in the absence of an admission that the assistance of the South is necessary to meet the needs of North Korean citizens, and this will be instrumental in moving North Korea off the dime in terms of a peaceful future for Korea.
One added benefit from the South Korean right wing perspective, beside the prospect of undermining North Korean domestic legitimacy in this situation, is that regardless of the North Korean response, unilateral offers of assistance from the South will no doubt be subject to widespread criticism by the right wing media of South Korea, and US media, in a key period before the April 15 general elections. So, such recommendation, if followed, for the sake of improved dialogue on the peninsula and the chance to actually improve the public health situation, peninsula wide, could present multiple ongoing opportunities for heavy criticism by right wing opposition in South Korea. Taking advantage of pandemic panic could turn the public discussion away from the other significant achievements by the current democratic administration in South Korea.
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