Sanctions, privatization, and "self sufficient" agriculture in North Korea will promote the spread of the new coronavirus according to Thae Yong Ho. With virtually no fertilizer or fuel due to sanctions, farmers and others use excrement for fertilizer, and have animals living with them in their living quarters.
Uncharacteristically for the outspoken opponent of the North Korean dictatorship, Thae recommended cooperation by South Korea and the international community to provide equipment, facilities and organization to contain the Wuhan virus. He said the North Korean public health resources are wholly inadequate to cope with the health care challenge and noted the spread of the Asian swine flu virus across the DMZ into South Korea last year as proof of Northern incapacity.
Thae said that it was necessary for the North's communist leader to swallow his pride and request assistance.
In today's analysis, Thae points out the Chinese are the airway for North Korea in a time when sanctions restrict access to resources and capital. This is the peak season for smuggling across the Tumen and Amur rivers for the Jangmajang private enterpreneurs in North Korea, when the rivers are frozen. According to Thae the border guards and army will not be able to stop the smuggling across the northern frontier to bring Chinese goods to the private marketplaces. So the official quarantine at the border from China will not be effective. In addition North Korea's lack of public health facilities, equipment, supplies and skills will make definitive identification, diagnosis and treatment of any of those infected difficult.
Due to the state of chronic malnutrition among workers and children, immune systems are weakened, and recovery from infection will be problematic. According to Thae if the epidemic penetrates to the heart of North Korea, Kim is concerned that the military could collapse. Construction projects which heavily depend on concentrations of manual labor both from the Army and civilians will need to be stopped. The party policy of reviving the economy by self reliant methods and the "frontal breakthrough" policy are in jeopardy of complete failure per Thae. (8:27) In fact, he says it is all but certain.
The official closing of the North Korean border with China cuts off both the tourist trade and the export of labor both of which supply North Korea with dearly needed foreign cash. Kim is actually in a position of supplication to China at this point. Awkwardly, he has officially stopped international commerce because of the Wuhan virus but at the same time he is hat in hand, asking China for continued financial support. A preferable alternative according to Thae is to turn to the South for the assistance. Kim needs to cope with the Wuhan virus which North Korea is otherwise incapable of responding to as a practical matter because of sanctions and diplomatic isolation. In this episode, Thae recommended that the South Korean government take the initiative and offer to assist North Korea with the public health challenges presented. While China and North Korea may be as "close as lips and teeth," as the Chinese saying goes, it is the Korean people who are family in fact, and should work together to resolve the situation. Thae acknowledges that the offers of assistance cannot take place in the absence of an admission that the assistance of the South is necessary to meet the needs of North Korean citizens, and this will be instrumental in moving North Korea off the dime in terms of a peaceful future for Korea.
One added benefit from the South Korean right wing perspective, beside the prospect of undermining North Korean domestic legitimacy in this situation, is that regardless of the North Korean response, unilateral offers of assistance from the South will no doubt be subject to widespread criticism by the right wing media of South Korea, and US media, in a key period before the April 15 general elections. So, such recommendation, if followed, for the sake of improved dialogue on the peninsula and the chance to actually improve the public health situation, peninsula wide, could present multiple ongoing opportunities for heavy criticism by right wing opposition in South Korea. Taking advantage of pandemic panic could turn the public discussion away from the other significant achievements by the current democratic administration in South Korea.
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