Channel A News Top Ten is reporting today that an unexpected joint naval exercise among allies Japan, Britain and the US will begin on December 22. Ostensibly, this is a response to political circumstances in the region and intended to place a "military check" on China. Specifically, the integrated allied force will practice joint operations against submarine threats in the East China Sea. One purpose is to demonstrate the level of unity and cooperation of the allies in their surveillance collection, information sharing and military operations. The Japanese ship Izumo, which can carry 14 helicopters is the center of the exercise. The HMS Argyle, a guided missile destroyer, is Britain's contribution. The US is providing Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to the operations.
In addition the program noted that it could be expected that a US nuclear powered attack submarine might play the role of enemy threat to be tracked and targeted by the forces in the joint exercise. The program reported recent prior submarine operations of the USS Michigan in the East China Sea during the period from December 9 to December 15. There apparently was a belated Chinese maritime patrol aircraft mission on December 14, which attempted to respond to those operations.
Purportedly, what might be characterized as "gunboat diplomacy" is alleged to have resulted in Chinese responsiveness in terms of the North Korean nuclear impasse with the United States. Allegedly, Xi has demanded that North Korea reenter negotiations with the US and "solve" the denuclearization problem in 2019. Relations with North Korea were characterized as having changed from unqualified support and to have grown distant lately.
Shin In Kyun in a recent Defense Daily podcast suggested that the deployment of an US Air Force Osprey unit to Japan, contemporaneous with the with US special envoy, Stephen Beigun's current visit to Seoul was the "whip" behind his apparent eagerness to have North Korean diplomats meet with the US working group. Arirang News reports that Beigun went so far as to visit Panmunjeom, and also had some proposals (the carrot) for humanitarian relief efforts that had previously been handicapped by sanctions and US travel restrictions. The presence of so-called decapitation special forces in the region is unlikely to make North Korea more likely to negotiate.
The arrest of Canadian hostage, Michael Spavor, in Dandong China, suggests that China had already taken a dim view of North Korea's suspension of diplomatic talks with the US before it became aware of any of these military operations discussed in the Top Ten program. This particular hostage, has been close to Kim Jong Un in the past, and as noted on a prior Top Ten broadcast, the arrest is intended to express China's displeasure with North Korea's current approach to negotiations with the US. It's more likely that trade issues between China and the US, are China's primary concern and motive for its message to North Korea. The existence of multiple potential military fronts as vexing problems for China is part of a wider more complex competition with the US. No doubt China would like the problem on the Korean peninsula to be timely resolved in an amicable manner, facilitating simpler direct negotiations between the US and China, concerning trade and other related issues.
No comments:
Post a Comment