Saturday, October 27, 2018

Combat Raider 19-1 Exercise a signal to DPRK?

( Source 신인균의 국방TV 10.23 ) In the age of stand off missiles the reason for directly entering into the jamming zone: US steadily prepares for an attack on North Korea.

Sin In Kyun, South Korean military analsyt, on his youtube Daily Defense program of October 23, 2018, reported that US strategic bombers were practicing non-GPS navigation in simulated decapitation attacks against North Korea. This was his interpretation of the exercises at Ellsworth AFB from October 16 through 18.

( Source 신인균의 국방TV 10.23 ) What kind of exercise are they doing? Red circles depict jamming zones.

Shin reported that Inchon airport and Seoul experienced very strong GPS jamming from North Korea in May 2012, that adversely affected aircraft landing at Inchon. GPS navigation devices failed during commercial airliner landings at Inchon. He infers that the development of anti GPS countermeasures is an essential military requirement of North Korea, and will adversely affect the reliability and precision of standoff precision guided weapons in the South Korean and US inventories. Consequently, he believes that US exercises practicing navigation without the assistance of GPS are intended to facilitate attack missions in an unfriendly jamming environment such as the one demonstrated by North Korea.

Shin goes a step further in his evaluation suggesting that with the anticipated degradation of GPS guided standoff munitions, that B61-12 tactical nuclear bunker busters would be the weapon system of choice for such a mission. And that the exercise is part of a negotiating strategy of the US, as the projected second summit with Kim Jong Un is extended into next year, and the effect of the maximum pressure campaign of economic sanctions is continued. Sin postulates that the practice of bomb delivery in a degraded ecm environment implies a direct personal threat against Kim's life regardless of the 300m depth of his bunker.

Be that as it may, the official US government report on the Combat Raider 19-1 exercise corroborates Sin's report only in its basic premise, that of exercising long range bomber operations in degraded threat environments. The regular exercise was billed as a coordinated joint tactical air control exercise including Canadian Royal Armed Force ground controllers to coordinate air support for ground forces:


“This Combat Raider is one of ‘firsts,’” O’Halloran stated. “We have high-altitude airspace up to 51,000 feet. We also have the new Joint Threat Emitter System and GPS jamming.”
The use of GPS jammers to disrupt operations represents a capability that U.S. adversaries already have. Playing this scenario during Combat Raider 19-1 provided aircrews the opportunity to train using RADAR, terrain association, and a map and a compass to determine their location.
Chief Master Sgt. Adam Vizi, the 28th Bomb Wing command chief, explained that the training allowed aircrews to hone preexisting skills “so that we can fly, fight and win in any combative scenario.” He added that the exercise also showcased the bombers’ abilities to get in, strike the target and get out in any contested or degraded environment.


https://www.dvidshub.net/news/297763/combat-raider-19-1-keeps-forces-ready-lethal


One has to consider whether Sin's reporting itself is not some kind of psychological operation to influence North Korea actions by exaggerating the significance of the exercise. Obviously, the capability to attack North Korea by these forces in any threat environment is present. The message Shin contends is unsupported by the official description of the exercise as a joint tactical air control exercise. Recently, I heard one report that the working delegation meeting between DPRK's Choi Son Hee and the US envoy Stephen Beigun announced after Mike Pompeo's last visit to Pyongyang to prepare for the second summit was cancelled by the North Koreans. According to a YTN news characterization of the state of affairs October 26, North Korea has been unresponsive to US inquiries to set a date for the talks with the working group preparing for the second summit. As of Oct. 29, it appears that no news is yet forthcoming on working group negotiations despite Beigun's well publicized presence in South Korea to meet with South Korean counterparts.




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