Channel A Top Ten News had some good discussion of the shuttle diplomacy going on this week in advance of an anticipated summit between Chairman Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump. One topic covered Choi Seon Hee, experienced North Korean diplomat, regarded as US specialist for the DPRK. Choi was reported to be in Beijing meeting with Chinese representatives today, October 5, and meeting with Russian representatives tomorrow in Moscow. It is believed that Choi's diplomacy is aimed at achieving support for Kim's negotiations with Mike Pompeo on October 7 in Pyongyang. Also, it is believed that she may be coordinating a summit visit to Russia by Kim after the meeting with Secretary Pompeo. Russian state representatives said the time and place of that summit were being discussed.
As reported by the US State Department, Secretary Pompeo will fly to Japan, to meet with President Abe, and Foreign Minister Kono, on October 6, and then fly to Pyongyang on October 7, for his anticipated meeting with Kim Jong Un. From Pyongyang, Pompeo will proceed to Seoul and then Beijing for further diplomatic discussions. The Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the possibility of some major card being played by the US representative in light of the stalemated nuclear talks and North Korea's much publicized reluctance to engage in one sided denuclearization.
South Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa recently raised the possibility of an end of the Korean war declaration being offered in exchanged for verified dismantlement of the Byungjin nuclear facility. This has sometimes been referred to critically as the so called slicing the sausage approach. That is the current nomenclature assigned to the step by step, reciprocal trust building measures method of negotiating favored by China, Russia, and North Korea. This is regarded unfavorably in the US whose approach in the past has been referred to as a one bundle or "big deal" method, which has been hampered with trust issues on the other side. The focus of the US approach is to get an inventory of all North Korean nuclear and weapons facilities assets, materials and sites and then verify it with inspections prior to dismantlement and removal. There is an objection that such a process provides an endless opportunity for haggling, disputes and failure. There is the notion of Trump holding out something less than the whole bundle and calling it a "big deal." The political risks of negotiations before the upcoming elections in the US were noted, also the security risks to Asia were discussed if the US administration settled for a US first approach.
Analysts making constructive suggestions seem to say, that "one plus alpha" should be brought to the table, using the English expression. On the North Korean side, they have withdrawn from notion that the end of war declaration is all that is required of the US, and emphasized a desire for economic relief on the sanctions regime displayed recently in the UN General Assembly meeting. The suggestion was made that limited waivers or exceptions to sanctions might be made for more substantial North Korean denuclearization moves. Whatever "one plus alfa" playing card or concessions are brought to the table from either side, the analysts were on the whole somewhat optimistic that some progress might be made given the extensive international discussions underway in anticipation of another US-DPRK summit.
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