US "working group" to restrain ROK inter-Korean policy.

( Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.31 ) Title of Story US direct contact with South Korean firms that visited North Korea is not Korea passing. US Embassy to South Korea warns 4 South Korean enterprises do not violate sanctions. Will US now begin investigating South Korean companies for violations?


US embassy warning to four major South Korean firms, "no further direct contact with North Korea, you'd better not disobey sanctions." This is really poor timing coming as it does from the US embassy after the South Korean court issues a judgement against a Japanese company regarding wartime reparations for private plaintiffs related to Japanese Imperial slavery practices. The four Korean corporations sent their executives, commonly known as chaebol, to visit Pyongyang along with the diplomatic delegation from South Korea in September. The US embassy contacted these companies directly, without going through the South Korean government. The South Korean companies are Samsung, Hyundai, LG and SK.

( Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.31 ) ROK-US denuclearization, North Korea sanctions and North South economic cooperation discussion working group will launch mid-November

Beigun appears to be special representative to South Korea rather than North Korea. Instead of meeting with the National Security Adviser for South Korea, he insists on meeting Moon's Executive Secretary, Im Jong Seok first, to determine what Moon's motivations are in getting "ahead" of the US negotiating position. Afterward, the Blue House Secretary, makes some rote statement about "no daylight" between the positions of the US and South Korea, which is clearly not so. Allegedly Im Jong Seok the chief executive aide to Moon Jae In, is a "friend" of Beigun's, but it appears the real purpose of the new US-ROK working group is to control South Korean policy with respect to North Korea. They want the South Korean government to speak with the US in one consistent voice.

( Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.31 ) Beigun leaves having established Korean American working group. The group will be set up in mid November. Discussions between South Korea and US on denuclearization, sanctions against North Korea, and South Korea- North Korea cooperation. The groups purpose is the systematize and formalize the US South negotiating system.


One has to wonder what the problem is with the normal diplomatic processes between South Korea and the US, if they don't know the history of Korean relations with Japan. If they do, they have to wonder what the point was of putting a clearly pro-Japanese ( 친일 chin il ) Admiral Harris in as US Ambassador, a major blunder to put it mildly. Now it leads to this extraordinary "working group." The Blue House has to go as far as denying that the working group is interfering in South Korean inter Korean policies and is not imposed as a check on the South Korean administration.

( Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.31 ) US-ROK working group in place, "common idea, different dream?" Beigun- (ROK) Speed of economic cooperation is too fast, restraining arrangement. Blue House press spokesman- mechanism to serve close discussions. US ROK differences in perspective certain.

Rather than Stephen Beigun being the lead US representative for negotiations with North Korea, as touted in numerous headlines August 23, it looks as if he has devolved into the South Korea control officer.

Combat Raider 19-1 Exercise a signal to DPRK?

( Source 신인균의 국방TV 10.23 ) In the age of stand off missiles the reason for directly entering into the jamming zone: US steadily prepares for an attack on North Korea.

Sin In Kyun, South Korean military analsyt, on his youtube Daily Defense program of October 23, 2018, reported that US strategic bombers were practicing non-GPS navigation in simulated decapitation attacks against North Korea. This was his interpretation of the exercises at Ellsworth AFB from October 16 through 18.

( Source 신인균의 국방TV 10.23 ) What kind of exercise are they doing? Red circles depict jamming zones.

Shin reported that Inchon airport and Seoul experienced very strong GPS jamming from North Korea in May 2012, that adversely affected aircraft landing at Inchon. GPS navigation devices failed during commercial airliner landings at Inchon. He infers that the development of anti GPS countermeasures is an essential military requirement of North Korea, and will adversely affect the reliability and precision of standoff precision guided weapons in the South Korean and US inventories. Consequently, he believes that US exercises practicing navigation without the assistance of GPS are intended to facilitate attack missions in an unfriendly jamming environment such as the one demonstrated by North Korea.

Shin goes a step further in his evaluation suggesting that with the anticipated degradation of GPS guided standoff munitions, that B61-12 tactical nuclear bunker busters would be the weapon system of choice for such a mission. And that the exercise is part of a negotiating strategy of the US, as the projected second summit with Kim Jong Un is extended into next year, and the effect of the maximum pressure campaign of economic sanctions is continued. Sin postulates that the practice of bomb delivery in a degraded ecm environment implies a direct personal threat against Kim's life regardless of the 300m depth of his bunker.

Be that as it may, the official US government report on the Combat Raider 19-1 exercise corroborates Sin's report only in its basic premise, that of exercising long range bomber operations in degraded threat environments. The regular exercise was billed as a coordinated joint tactical air control exercise including Canadian Royal Armed Force ground controllers to coordinate air support for ground forces:

“This Combat Raider is one of ‘firsts,’” O’Halloran stated. “We have high-altitude airspace up to 51,000 feet. We also have the new Joint Threat Emitter System and GPS jamming.”
The use of GPS jammers to disrupt operations represents a capability that U.S. adversaries already have. Playing this scenario during Combat Raider 19-1 provided aircrews the opportunity to train using RADAR, terrain association, and a map and a compass to determine their location.
Chief Master Sgt. Adam Vizi, the 28th Bomb Wing command chief, explained that the training allowed aircrews to hone preexisting skills “so that we can fly, fight and win in any combative scenario.” He added that the exercise also showcased the bombers’ abilities to get in, strike the target and get out in any contested or degraded environment.

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/297763/combat-raider-19-1-keeps-forces-ready-lethal


One has to consider whether Sin's reporting itself is not some kind of psychological operation to influence North Korea actions by exaggerating the significance of the exercise. Obviously, the capability to attack North Korea by these forces in any threat environment is present. The message Shin contends is unsupported by the official description of the exercise as a joint tactical air control exercise. Recently, I heard one report that the working delegation meeting between DPRK's Choi Son Hee and the US envoy Stephen Beigun announced after Mike Pompeo's last visit to Pyongyang to prepare for the second summit was cancelled by the North Koreans. According to a YTN news characterization of the state of affairs October 26, North Korea has been unresponsive to US inquiries to set a date for the talks with the working group preparing for the second summit. As of Oct. 29, it appears that no news is yet forthcoming on working group negotiations despite Beigun's well publicized presence in South Korea to meet with South Korean counterparts.

ROK Army Firepower Exercise Cancelled

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(Source: Channel A Top Ten News 10.24) Graphic shows a single launch from the Cheonmu 230mm MRLS.

Channel A Top Ten News programs reports the South Korean ROK Army East Sea (Sea of Japan) coastal zone firing exercise scheduled for November has been cancelled. These exercises normally are scheduled to take place in April and November in recent years. The exercise takes place in Gangwon province, Goseong county on the East Sea Coast around the Songchiho beach area (about 15 km north of Sokcho). The exercises typically involve simultaneous marine and land live firing exercises. The primary weapon systems used are the Chonmu 230mm multiple rocker launcher system, and the K-9 155mm self propelled artillery.

The exercises are being cancelled because the Songchiho firing zone lies within the military buffer zone of the East Sea, which extends 40 km north and south of the Military Demarcation Line in the DMZ and the North Limit Line extension into the East Sea. One of the program's analsyts suggested that it was going to be difficult to find an alternative remote location to conduct these large scale mobilization and firepower exercises further away from the DMZ restricted area. Live firing and other "hostile" actions cannot take place in this region under the terms of the recent military agreement signed by the military leaders of North and South Korea.

The program went on to discuss the continuing controversy raised by the opposition Liberty Korea Party in the National Assembly, concerning implementation of the military agreement signed on September 18, at the Pyongyang Summit, before the North has demonstrated a more substantial and concrete denuclearization effort. Kim Song Te, the party leader, likened the action to registering the name and birthdate of child before it was born. The Moon administration contends that time is of the essence in implementation of these military measures and that delaying action until ratification by the National Assembly would impair the efficacy of the measures to reduce military tension and did meet Constitutional requirements. The Liberty Party Korea leader is filing an action for an injunction against implementation of the military agreement with the courts. In another news broadcast, the Blue House representative commented that the conservative opposition party was engaged in a self serving political action rather than responding to genuine security concerns. It is the administration's position that reducing the threat environment and creating conditions conducive to peace will facilitate denuclearization of the North.

(Source: Channel A Top Ten News 10.24) East Sea Songchiho beach area included in maritime hostile acts suspension buffer zone.

DPRK high level delegation to visit US before elections? Who will it be?

( Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.22 ) Pompeo's North Korean Counterpart? Instead of Kim Yong Chol, Kim Yo Jong?

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in an interview recorded by VOA, published on youtube on October 19, said that he expected to "...have senior (North Korean) leaders meeting us here in the next week and a half or so, between myself and my counterpart." Today, South Korean analysts from Channel A News Top Ten program have suggested that Pompeo's call for top level talks with North Korean representatives may result in a visit by Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong, to the US before the scheduled US mid-term elections. The analysts speculated that such a meeting would be politically motivated and mostly form over substance serving political campaign needs for the Trump administration. Pompeo said that the meeting would focus on the time, date and place for the anticipated second summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, which have not yet been settled upon. The need for the US administration according to these conservative South Korean analysts is to present an image of progress in the stalled negotiation process since the Singapore Summit, before the imminent US midterm elections.

It is commonly assumed in South Korean pundit circles that Mike Pompeo and his "counterpart," Worker Party Vice Chairman Kim Yong Chol don't get along very well. Since the relative failure of their meeting in early July in Pyongyang where Pompeo made little headway with Kim Yong Chol on the issue of denuclearization, and failed to meet with Kim Jong Un, Pompeo has seemed to get along better with DPRK Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, in diplomatic encounters. The South Korean analysts at Top Ten did not discuss the possibility of Ri being assigned the role of counterpart for this expected meeting with Pompeo in the US. Perhaps because Ri is relatively junior in status among the inner circle in Pyongyang. The program focused on the more appealing prospect, media wise, that Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un's sister and aide, might fill the bill for the "counterpart" to Secretary Pompeo at the meeting. While Kim Yo Jong is nominally junior to Kim Yong Chol in formal political status and power, she shares the family relationship with Kim Jong Un, appears to have his trust, and knows his intentions. She serves as his personal aide for public affairs and functions as a director of propaganda. She is almost always either present or nearby at Kim's public appearances, and is believed to be the chief organizer of his public events.

The recent suspension of the large joint Vigilant Ace US- ROK military air exercises nominally scheduled for December is conducive to arranging a future summit meeting with Kim Jong Un while smoothing over recent frictions with South Korea over the military agreement it reached with North Korea, particularly with respect to airspace restrictions on military aircraft in regions proximate to the DMZ. This program also discussed the possibility of Kim Jong Un visiting Seoul before the end of the year, in light of the prospect of a Trump-Kim summit and perhaps a possible visit by the Pope to North Korea. The analysts felt Kim might visit Seoul irrespective of the timing of the DPRK/US summit but that it might cause domestic political difficulties particularly with opposition parties in the National Assembly if no concrete progress is being made on denuclearization by North Korea. The situation was regarded as fluid despite the Blue House announcement today that a Kim visit to Seoul was still anticipated before the end of the year.



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Ancient Bangudae Petroglyphs Still Endangered

Source KBS "Heaven's Collection" broadcast: computer facsimile of Bangudae Petroglyphs Oct 20, 2018

The South Korean cultural entertainment program "Heaven's Collection," presented a feature on the Bangudae Petroglyphs, World Heritage Site and Korean National Treasure No. 285, explaining their world historical and anthropological significance. There are roughly 300 animal forms depicted primarily by engraving the rock face on a river tributary in Taegok Ri, Ulchu County, South Korea ( 반구대암각화, 울주군 대곡리 ) upriver from the city of Ulsan. The most abundant single type of animal engraved are various species of whales. The narrator for the feature suggested that the site reflected thousands of years of neolithic history up to the bronze age. He declined to call the site prehistoric in nature. The abstract nature of the rock engravings, rather than being illustrative as the more famous earlier Altamira cave paintings, are conceptual in nature, bordering on the features of an ideographic language. Various human forms and hunting implements are depicted along with drawings of unknown nature.

Source EBS Culture Legacy Korea Nov. 3

An unfortunate development concerning this site, is that it is endangered by the dam constructed on the river tributary to control water levels and water supply in the area. When the water level rises, the glyphs are submerged and subject to weathering, erosion, and other material deterioration. The threat to the world and national cultural heritage has been the subject of various proposals and engineering plans to preserve the site for years, but the competing cultural and agricultural interests and the desire to maintain the fresh water supply have obstructed meaningful progress on conservation measures.

Reportedly the local and national government authorities yet again have plans under consideration that will result in a decision on a proposal by the end of the year to preserve this important anthropological treasure.

Wikipedia has an excellent description of the site with pictures:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangudae_Petroglyphs

"From the abundant representations of marine animals, the site seems to be in close relationship with hunter-fishers attributed to the Neolithic era (between 8000 BP and 3500 BP). Consequently, the Bangudae site has the most ancient evidence of whaling worldwide and is considered highly important not only as a first whaling representation, but also for understanding prehistoric maritime culture in the northern Pacific area."

Military Flight Restrictions Agreement Between Koreas Irks US

There have been a number of reports in the press since the Moon-Kim Summit in Pyongyang on September 19, about US dissatisfaction with the military agreements made between North and South Korea affecting military operations and disposition of forces along the DMZ/Military Demarcation Line, and Northern Limit Lines in the East and West Seas surrounding the Korean peninsula.

The first sign was at General Abrams' hearing before the Armed Services Committee in which the general asserted the ultimate authority of the United Nations Command to determine the measures in the agreement to which it would accede. More recently there was an article in the Japanese press about a phone call between Mike Pompeo and South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa in which he expressed anger concerning the restrictions on military aircraft in the area of the DMZ negotiated in the agreement. Then it became a matter of inquiry in the South Korean National Assembly when Kang was queried on the subject and criticized by the opposition party members.


Channel A News Top Ten posted a video on youtube concerning the controversy on October 12. The essence of the matter is that the US complained that it was not given enough time to digest the lengthy military agreement reached by the two sides. The South Korean Defense Ministry has said that the US/UNC military command was consulted many times in the course of the military negotiations with the North, but the US side says the consultation was insufficient, and that last minute details in the agreement were not delivered to the US/UNC side until September 16, clearly an inadequate time to consider such a lengthy agreement, signed September 18. The principle points of contention are related to the restrictions on military air operations in the vicinity of the DMZ. Although there are some other differences out there, this report is limited to the air operations issue.

Source Channel A News Top Ten Youtube podcast 10.12

There appear to be two principal restricted zones along the DMZ/MDL extended on both sides north and south. The inner zone is depicted in the Channel A News Top Ten report as a ten kilometer band on either side of the DMZ/MDL affecting rotor powered flight. This naturally affects military helicopter operations and was reported to affect prop aircraft, such as the RC-12, and RC-7, military intelligence and surveillance aircraft used by US and ROK forces respectively. The primary disagreement among military analysts in South Korea was that not only combat helicopter flights were affected but also military evacuation flights for injured or sick US troops, at Camp Boniface, for example, "would require North Korean permission." Additionally, it was felt that the inability to operate lighter reconnaissance aircraft in this zone would create potential weaknesses or gaps in readiness and responsiveness to potential aggression from North Korean forces. The freedom of high level military commanders to check their area of responsibility and inspect force dispositions by air was felt to be another potential impediment.

Source Channel A News Top Ten Youtube podcast 10.12

The second wider region of restrictions on military aircraft operations affects jet aircraft. In the eastern half of the zone, the restricted airspace extends 40 kilometers on either side of the DMZ/MDL. On the western side of the peninsula, the zone extends 20 km north and south of the DML. The graphic depicts the affected aircraft of concern, the reconnaissance aircraft, the RF-16, and the ROKAF Gumgang. Other military jet aircraft are prohibited from the zone as well, these are the aircraft used to demonstrate the primary concern of military analysts and ostensibly, represent the primary US objection to the restrictions as well.

Military representatives for the South have contended that because the agreement doesn't go into effect until Nov. 1, and also because it is understood that the US would need to agree with the provisions of the military agreement signed at Pyongyang in September, that differences can be worked out. They emphasized that the US/UNC side expressed agreement with most items in the agreement. Critics argue that such backtracking and renegotiations could provide an unnecessarily troublesome and problematic obstacle diplomatically.

Cheju Residents Oppose Demonstration of Naval Power

Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.11- Kayaks block US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan. One sign in the photo says why we ask is a nuclear aircraft carrier coming to our island that has been at peace for 70 years. The graphic overlay says "the (international) naval review is against the spirit of peace in these times;" "Opposition demonstrations breaking out in various places."

Source SBS News 10.11- International Naval Review in the sea facing Cheju Naval Base. Navies of 47 countries participate. Picture shows reviewing stands with visiting guests on the deck of the South Korean Amphibious Carrier Dokto to observe the review.

Source Channel A News Top Ten 10.11- Chart depicts reported joint military exercises of USS Reagan and Japanese Maritime Defense carrier Izumo both before and ostensibly after the US carrier was turned away from Cheju by demonstrators. Reportedly USS Reagan has been engaged with Japanese defense forces in military exercises since Oct. 1.

Residents of Gangjeong Cheju Island oppose the development of the Cheju Naval Base on their island, the display of naval military power by the International Naval Review that began on October 10, and the presence of the nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan. 39 ships participated in the initial review. Representatives from 47 countries are participating in the event. Japan declined to participate because of the controversy over its Imperial Flag being displayed in South Korean territorial waters. China refused to participate, it is presumed, because of current poor relations with the United States.

President Moon Jae In of South Korea, hosted the international event on behalf of the South Korean Navy. He addressed the visiting naval officers and dignitaries. Channel A News analysts suggested that the USS Reagan joined with Japanese naval and air forces after turning away from the Cheju harbor because of the local demonstrators in kayaks presenting navigation and safety risks.

Pompeo Discloses Little

“The mission is to make sure that we understand what each side is truly trying to achieve,” Pompeo said Friday en route to Japan, his first stop on his swing through East Asia.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/mike-pompeo-heads-north-korea-low-expectations-high/story?id=58310367

South Korea SBS News reported today that the Blue House was noticeably cautious this morning after Pompeo's formulaic statements in Japan. He still appears to be seeking a global settlement (FFIV) of the North Korean nuclear weapons program, holding out a "peace treaty" and proposed Chinese participation in "peace treaty" negotiations. His statements appear to reflect a level of immobility that often is a part of US negotiations.

Bruce Klinger and Victor Cha are experts who have played a role in getting the US and Northeast Asia into this situation. The idea that the problem can be resolved in the way they suggest, in the abc.com article, reflects an absolute indifference to the major parties on the other side of the table. Klinger says the South Koreans are too eager. Apparently, seventy years isn't long enough to wait to get your country back from the dictates of foreigners. (He's also referred to Koreans as "lemmings," in the past.) With respect to Cha, I suspect that his conventional approach to this situation, which includes the meta-inventory and inspection regime upfront, is exactly Pompeo's, in spite of admonitions that it is better to be "reasonable" as South Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa's has said. That is take the substantial concessions currently being offered by North Korea, and give some reciprocal concessions, as part of a process on the way to building further trust and more comprehensive accomplishments in the future.

Update 10/8 00:30

The prospects for progress in the negotiations between the US and North Korea, are regarded as promising in South Korea after the Pompeo visit to Pyongyang. Detailed discussions of potential agreement on both sides are not uncommon in South Korean media while typically being dismissed preemptively in the US media. South Korean analysts have variously described US media, "establishment elites" and "conservatives" as presenting a headwind or backlash to administration negotiation efforts. They leave out the democratic opposition which has also been harshly critical of the summit process and it's aftermath. Apparently, offered currently by the North are the inspection of the Pungaeri nuclear test site destroyed earlier, dismantlement and inspection of the Sohae missile launch facility, and dismantlement and inspection of the Yongbyun Nuclear research facility, if the right reciprocal measures are forthcoming by the US. Some of the analysts envisioned the possibility of a Trump - Kim summit before Nov. 6.

Shuttle Diplomacy in the Far East

DPRK Choi Son Hee, ahead of US Pompeo's upcoming visit to North Korea, holds negotiations with China and Russia, why? (Source- Channel A News Top Ten 10.5)

Channel A Top Ten News had some good discussion of the shuttle diplomacy going on this week in advance of an anticipated summit between Chairman Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump. One topic covered Choi Seon Hee, experienced North Korean diplomat, regarded as US specialist for the DPRK. Choi was reported to be in Beijing meeting with Chinese representatives today, October 5, and meeting with Russian representatives tomorrow in Moscow. It is believed that Choi's diplomacy is aimed at achieving support for Kim's negotiations with Mike Pompeo on October 7 in Pyongyang. Also, it is believed that she may be coordinating a summit visit to Russia by Kim after the meeting with Secretary Pompeo. Russian state representatives said the time and place of that summit were being discussed.

Pompeo's Fourth Pyongyang visit...What's on the table? US Pompeo Asia tour schedule: 6-7th Tokyo Abe Kono meeting; 7th Pyongyang Kim Jong Un meeting; 7-8th Seoul Moon Jae In, Kang Kyung Hwa meeting; 8th Beijing (Source- Channel A News Top Ten 10.5)


As reported by the US State Department, Secretary Pompeo will fly to Japan, to meet with President Abe, and Foreign Minister Kono, on October 6, and then fly to Pyongyang on October 7, for his anticipated meeting with Kim Jong Un. From Pyongyang, Pompeo will proceed to Seoul and then Beijing for further diplomatic discussions. The Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the possibility of some major card being played by the US representative in light of the stalemated nuclear talks and North Korea's much publicized reluctance to engage in one sided denuclearization.

South Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa recently raised the possibility of an end of the Korean war declaration being offered in exchanged for verified dismantlement of the Byungjin nuclear facility. This has sometimes been referred to critically as the so called slicing the sausage approach. That is the current nomenclature assigned to the step by step, reciprocal trust building measures method of negotiating favored by China, Russia, and North Korea. This is regarded unfavorably in the US whose approach in the past has been referred to as a one bundle or "big deal" method, which has been hampered with trust issues on the other side. The focus of the US approach is to get an inventory of all North Korean nuclear and weapons facilities assets, materials and sites and then verify it with inspections prior to dismantlement and removal. There is an objection that such a process provides an endless opportunity for haggling, disputes and failure. There is the notion of Trump holding out something less than the whole bundle and calling it a "big deal." The political risks of negotiations before the upcoming elections in the US were noted, also the security risks to Asia were discussed if the US administration settled for a US first approach.

Analysts making constructive suggestions seem to say, that "one plus alpha" should be brought to the table, using the English expression. On the North Korean side, they have withdrawn from notion that the end of war declaration is all that is required of the US, and emphasized a desire for economic relief on the sanctions regime displayed recently in the UN General Assembly meeting. The suggestion was made that limited waivers or exceptions to sanctions might be made for more substantial North Korean denuclearization moves. Whatever "one plus alfa" playing card or concessions are brought to the table from either side, the analysts were on the whole somewhat optimistic that some progress might be made given the extensive international discussions underway in anticipation of another US-DPRK summit.

Trump's Timeline Game

The first and most important of President Trump's timelines is connected with the mid term elections. He wants as many headlines as he can get before that. It's been apparent from the on again, off again schedule for negotiations with North Korea that this is what has dominated his thinking all along. This imminent trip of Secretary Pompeo to Pyongyang is consistent with the original anticipated schedule of developments expected by expert observers in South Korea for months. The present rush by Secretary Pompeo to get to North Korea surprised some, but is part of a consistent pattern related to the midterms.

But like a child trying to disguise his patent manipulation, Trump said he did not want to “play the time game."

The second time game he's playing is with the sanctions on North Korea. Whatever the administration says, it knows that North Korea urgently wants to open up to international trade, and engage in new industrial development and infrastructure projects with South Korean corporations. At the same time there is an entrenched school of thought within the executive branch and this administration, that the sanctions should be maintained indefinitely and that North Korea will collapse. These are the same people who have been advocating strategic patience for years, representing the interests of defense contractors, ballistic missile defense manufacturers, professional think tanks, and intelligence contractors who will have increased political difficulties or lose revenue streams without a perpetual enemy in North Korea. The posture that time is not an issue on the US side increases pressure on North Korea which has numerous economic projects on hold waiting to generate foreign exchange. Simultaneously, it undermines the current progressive administration in South Korea which the US administration and entrenched US national security interests not so secretly despise.

The third time game is with China, and Chinese competition economically, internationally, and militarily, in which the dispute with North Korea is just a chess piece. China won't negotiate the trade dispute and is waiting for Trump's political posture to deteriorate further, particularly after the midterms, before getting more seriously engaged. Meanwhile, they support tourism and whatever marginal commerce that can take place under the radar with North Korea without blatantly violating the sanctions. While economic analysts think China's economic position will deteriorate more quickly than that of the US, the Chinese believe Trump's political situation will worsen more quickly than their economic position.