What is North Korea's Next Move?

Tae Yong Ho, the ubiquitous North Korean defector formerly an official at the North Korean embassy in England, made an appearance on A Channel today, and as usual had plenty of advice for the US. Among the suggestions, was that Trump should listen to all his advisers with respect to the North Korean nuclear issue. Clearly, this is a implied recommendation for Bolton's point of view. He ended one hours worth of interview on the current North Korean scene, by quoting Reagan, "trust but verify," and added "but verify first." The remarks were specifically addressed to President Trump.

Tae is of the view that North Korea will never completely denuclearize peacefully, and that random and thorough inspections of nuclear facilities are domestically unacceptable in North Korea. He continues to speak in terms of a simple dichotomy, that Kim wants security guarantees, and normalization of relations with the US first; then denuclearization. This is in contrast to the step by step, reciprocal and simultaneous measures recommended by Russia, China, and to a certain degree, South Korea. The latter is often referred to as the confidence building approach. Tae suggested Kim will offer only known existing facilities for dismantling while keeping a secret infrastructure to maintain his nuclear threat. At the same time, he did say that it was too early to tell if the summit was a failure or not.

Pompeo's office recently postponed an appearance before the Senate to discuss, the "agreement" made in Singapore. Trump alluded to Pompeo's trips to Pyongyang in the White House with cameras present. When will Pompeo go back? Kim returned from Beijing. What is he going to offer? Trump suspended the Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint exercises with South Korea. If something doesn't materialize soon. Pompeo will be eclipsed.