Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Kim meets with Xi Again.

This is the third time Kim has met Xi before expected meetings with Pompeo.

The suspension of the joint military exercises has put substantial pressure on Kim to make a more substantive move in the denuclearization process. He went to China to get advice on a method of how to go forward with denuclearization. If he doesn't produce results in a timely manner, Trump will be forced to revert to the hard line and resume exercises. Kim has to give up something nuclear at this point. So the step by step confidence building measures are being tested and need to go forward. Whatever Kim comes up with, it needs to meet Chinese approval, or he will lose diplomatic support from Xi.

The US tends to frame China as a complicating factor. It is more accurate to say that they are an indispensable factor. While some US elements, including President Trump himself, may view Xi's influence as possibly exerting a negative influence on Kim's responsiveness, this isn't necessarily true. It is more likely that China wishes to see the issues on the Korean peninsula resolved peacefully. To accomplish that Kim will need to meet a standard for good faith, in the step by step, action for action, process between the US and North Korea going forward, not only in US eyes, but in China's view as well.

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