(Source- KBS News 9.8) The KBS news caption, "Prosecutor pressure, Say Lee Jae-myung is corrupt." Gyeonggi Province Governor and leading democratic party president candidate Lee Jae-myung (right)
In an exclusive investigative report, released after six months of investigation, KBS News discloses evidence suggesting a scheme by a Seoul Central District prosecutor to frame Lee Jae-myung for soliciting unlawful financial support, personnel support or other favors to his campaign to become governor of Gyeonggi province. At the time, Governor Lee Jae-myung was mayor of Seongnam city. Lee Jae-myung is currently the leading democratic party candidate for president in the ongoing primary campaign for the March 2022 election.* A statement from KBS clarified, this case is about the prosecution not Lee Jae-myung.
*'이재명 표적수사' 보도 KBS 기자 "주제는 이재명 아닌 검찰" 2021.09.08 12:55, https://m.news.nate.com/view/20210908n19482?mid=e02&list=recent&cpcd=
Much of the evidence, comes from voluminous written accounts by and correspondence with Lee Jun-seok (his name is a homonym to the young PPP party leader's name, no relation). Lee Jun-seok was chief executive of Goma Trade, a relatively small corporation with 80 employees at the time. Lee JS was accused at the time of operating an overseas gambling web site. According to Lee JS's account, the as yet unnamed prosecutor, identified only as Mr. Kim, demanded Lee JS provide false statements to incriminate then Mayor Lee Jae-myung. At first, Lee Jun-seok was offered favorable treatment concerning the charges against him. When he declined to provide such statements, he, his family members, including his wife and mother were repeatedly threatened with prosecution and confinement.
The prosecutor's unlawful behavior is similar to that described in detail in the case of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-suk who was imprisoned for financial crimes. The prime minister's prosecution was allegedly based on perjured testimony solicited by the prosecution from an imprisoned white collar criminal who later recanted his testimony. The solicitation of perjury from Lee Jun-seok in the Seongnam case also appears very similar to the inducements and threats delivered to an incarcerated white collar criminal in a similar scheme to implicate director of the No Mu-hyun foundation, Yoo Shi-min, in financial crimes with perjured testimony more recently. The alleged prosecution plot against director Yoo Shi-min was labelled the Channel A News scandal, because the scheme was attempted by a Dong A media reporter, Lee Dong-jae, acting as agent for the prosecutor. In that case, chat records revealed that the suspected prosecutor, was Han Dong-hun, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's right hand man. Ironically, Han who refused to release the code to his encrypted handphone as relevant evidence in that case, made a public statement today dismissing Lee Jun-seok's 3000 pages of evidence as unworthy of belief because it is from a "vulgar source." The former Prosecutor General Yoon, is now a major candidate in the conservative presidential primary contests. He is surrounded by legal controversies.
The prosecution of former Justice Minister Cho Guk and his wife shares similar characteristics. The testimony of one of the key prosecution witnesses, Choi Song-hae, the former president of Dongyang University, against Chung Kyung-shim, Cho's wife, also appears to be perjured in circumstances where Choi was alleged to have presented false academic credentials about himself, and committed financial self dealing while university president. Former university president Choi testified that professor Chung forged an award certificate in favor of her daughter, allegedly to facilitate her entry to another university. The contention there, thus far unproven, is that the former university president was threatened with prosecution to induce false testimony against Professor Chung. So the case related to Lee Jae-myung while mayor of Seongnam suggests a continuing pattern of political corruption and abuse of power in the prosecution offices of South Korea. It's alleged that prosecutions of Cho Guk and his wife were directed by candidate Yoon Seok-yeol as Prosecutor General at the time.
Previously, allegations of abuse of power and politically motivated prosecutions, supported by fabricated evidence, were given little or no coverage or dismissive treatment in the widely conservative South Korean mainstream media. This case is one of the first taken seriously by an established media institution. Just a few days ago, an independent, digital media, investigative web site, Newsverse, disclosed documents tending to show the central public prosecutors office was behind the preparation of charges against two democratic politicians, director Yoo Shi-min, and reporters, in the run up to the April 2020 general elections.* The instant investigative report concerning prosecution actions in late 2017 and early 2018 to target Lee Jae-myung as candidate for governor of Gyeonggi Province, was released by KBS just a few days later. This is probably the largest news institution to allege criminal misconduct by prosecution offices thus far. The misconduct involves solicitation of perjury, abuse of public office, and the use of inducements and threats to perpertrate fraud in a legal proceeding.
*Will the legal dam break on Yoon Seok-yeol's presidential campaign? Sep.4, https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2021/09/will-legal-dam-break-on-yoon-seok-yeols.html
(Source- KBS News 9.8) The nature of threats to induce false testimony against Lee Jae-myung described in a written statement by Lee Jun-seok.
If Lee Jun-seok had agreed to incriminate Lee Jae-myung, the prosecutor agreed to release him from confinement. Lee JS said Lee Jae-myung had never solicited financial favors or other support in kind. The prosecutor told him, "tell us he asked for campaign funds and personnel to support his campaign, if you put it that freely, that will be good." Allegedly, Prosecutor ( 검사 ) Kim, also said, "if you forget what to say, we will tell you." Reportedly, Mr. Kim also threatened to give Lee Jun-seok, 15 years or more in prison, prosecute his wife, brother and mother while imprisoning them right away as co-conspirators, and to shake his company up with a mass investigation. He said he would tie down Lee Jun-seok, in criminal litigation three to four times, which would bankrupt him with attorneys' costs in the hundreds of millions won. Lee Jun-seok, was repeatedly indicted and tried, for multiple offenses, over the years. Some of the cases were described as "out of the cabinet cases" by a legal expert, that is repeating old charges that had previously resulted in dismissals. The prosecutors claim Lee Jun-seok, is an international mafia figure. Lee counters, "with everything they have charged against me (over the years), that charge had never been made."
Wednesday, September 8, 2021
Tuesday, September 7, 2021
Hong Jun-pyo passes Yoon Seok-yeol in conservative poll
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 9.7.21) People's Power Party candidates suitability for office survey. Graph from left to right in percent surveyed: Hong Jun-pyo, 32.5; Yoon Seok-yeol, 29.1; Yoo Seung-min, 9.6; Choi Jae-hyung, 4.1.
While Yoon's public support is his strong point, the so called "Newsverse scandal" which presents documents suggesting Yoon privatized the public prosecutors' offices for his personal and political gain causes Hong's support which had been gaining lately to pass Yoon in the conservative poll. The results could be within the margin of error, but this the first real numerical sign that Yoon's campaign to become the presidential candidate of the People's Power Party is faltering.
See our earlier September 4 post: Will the legal dam break on Yoon Seok-yeol's presidential campaign?
Sunday, September 5, 2021
South Korea- Lee Nak-yon suffers early primary loss to progressive presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 9.5.21) Democratic presidential candidate contender Lee Nak-yon suffers serious loss to Lee Jae-myung in early Sep. 4-5 regional primaries by a 2-1 margin. Lee Jae-myung, far left, 54.81 percent; Lee Nak-yon, second from left, 27.41 percent. Jung Sye-kyun (3rd place) 7.84 percent; Chu Mi-ae (4th) 6.67 percent.
Lee Nak-yon's greatest blunders? Stalling the reforms sought by the candlelight revolution when they put the democratic party in power after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. Lee Nak-yon served as Prime Minister to Moon Jae-in and later as Democratic Party leader in the National Assembly. He is perceived as having stonewalled prosecution and press reforms sought by democratic voters. Worse, he later called for the pardon of corrupt conservative authoritarian presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak. Additionally, he was critical of former Justice Minister Cho Guk who led the reform movement. Cho Guk, as a consequence, found himself and his family persecuted in the courts by the dictator in waiting, conservative presidential candidate, Yoon Seok-yeol.
Yoon Seok-yeol, the leading conservative presidential candidate, was Prosecutor General at the time. Lee Nak-yon also failed to support former Justice Chu Mi-ae, who replaced Cho Guk in the office, in her efforts to restrain out of control Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's abuse of office and her efforts to discipline him, and remove his supporters from prosecution offices across South Korea. (Chu Mi-ae is in fourth place in the early primaries, at 6.67 percent.) Lee Nak-yeon's true colors exposed, his public support has plummeted. Virtually half of Lee Nak-yon's supporters say they will vote conservative if he is not the democratic candidate for president in the coming March 2022 election. These conservatively oriented Lee Nak yon supporters are probably about 5 percent of the general electorate at this point as his support has dropped to about 9-10 percent of the overall electorate.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 9.5.21) Democratic Party presidential candidate primary schedule in South Korea. Daejeon/Chungnam 9.4: Sejong/Chungbuk 9.5; Daegu/Gyeongbuk 9.11; Gangwon 9.12; Gwangju/Jeonam 9.25 ; Jeonbuk 9.26; Cheju 10.1; Busan, Ulsan/Gyeongnam 10.2; Inchon 10.3; Seoul 10.10.
Saturday, September 4, 2021
Will the legal dam break on Yoon Seok-yeol's presidential campaign?
The Hankyoreh has an English language article on the investigative journalism articles appearing in the relatively unknown Newsverse, a South Korean digital media website, about alleged misconduct in the former Supreme Prosecutor's office. Allegedly while Yoon was Prosecutor General, a subordinate office, under his control, instigated charges by third parties, against democratic party figures and journalists in the period immediately before the April 2020 National Assembly elections.*
*How prosecution’s probe on Newsverse article is linked to Yoon Seok-youl, Posted on : Sep.3,2021 17:53 KST Modified on : Sep.3,2021 17:53 KST, Hankyoreh, By Ock Kee-won; https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1010402.html
The Hankyoreh article has a fairly restrained characterization of Yoon's situation, and isn't depicting the full scope and implications of the story as described by Newsverse.* While leaking of confidential investigative information by prosecutors offices is illegal, particularly the private information of subjects and witnesses, this Hankyoreh article tends to downplay the political significance of the Supreme Prosecutor's investigation information office's alleged unlawful acts while the former Prosecutor General was in office.** Charges were contrived for political purposes, including interference in the electoral process. The charges were intended to intimidate elected political officials or candidates, advocating prosecution reforms, as well as reporters, covering stories that were critical of Yoon, or his family members. The prosecution reforms advocated by the targeted individuals aimed at limiting excessive and unchecked investigatory powers of prosecution offices to prevent them from being manipulated for politically partisan purposes.
*[단독] 윤석열 검찰, 총선 코앞 유시민·최강욱·황희석 등 국민의힘에 고발 사주, 전혁수 기자, 입력 2021.09.02 08:59; http://www.newsverse.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=417
** The titles Supreme Prosecutor and Prosecutor General are equivalent titles describing the same office, previously held by Yoon Seok-yeol. Prosecutor General Kim Oh-soo, the current "Supreme Prosecutor," said the charges will be investigated because they reflect adversely on the reputation of the office. Yoon Seok-yeal is currently the leading conservative candidate for the presidency of South Korea.
The charges concocted by the Supreme Prosecutor's Office were intended, in part, to thwart public reporting of adverse information about Yoon, Yoon's family, and his subordinate prosecutor, Han Dong-hoon. Two of the figures investigated and slated for prosecution for defamation against the aforementioned parties, were the party spokesperson for the satellite democratic party, Choi Kang-ook, and the party leader for the same party, Hwang Hwi-seok, both National Assembly representatives. A third prominent target was Yoo Shi-min, director of the No Mu-hyun Foundation. These two politicians on the left, and outspoken pundit Yoo, have been advocates and supporters of prosecutorial reforms in South Korea, intended to remove excessive investigative powers from the Supreme Prosecutor's offices, and turn them over to separate agencies, the police, a new separate serious crimes investigation office, and another independent new office for investigation of senior public officials.
In effect, the prosecution reforms remove the former investigatory powers of the prosecutors' offices. In the course of their advocacy for prosecutorial reform, the targeted individuals discussed specific instances of alleged obstruction of justice and case interference allegedly related to Yoon's office. In particular, Choi and Yoo were outspoken about the alleged practice of misusing public prosecutors" offices, to protect powerful economic interests, and protect Yoon's family members or subordinates from investigation and prosecution for alleged wrongful acts and corruption. So what this current story is really about is Yoon's alleged practice of using his offices to advance and protect his private personal and political interests. This was characterized in Newsverse, as privatizing the prosecution function, demonstrated by instigating these politically motivated charges at political rivals and reporters.
It is alleged that the Supreme Prosecutor's investigation information policy office unlawfully drafted the charge sheets, without identifying the complainant bringing charges in each case. The charge sheets were allegedly transmitted to a conservative candidate in the United Future Party, Kim Woong, (now serving as a member of the National Assembly), during the 2020 campaign, ultimately for transfer to other private parties to file charges. The Supreme Prosecutor's investigative information office thereby unlawfully sought to induce the private charges which would then precipitate the litigation the prosecution itself as a politicized office was seeking to prosecute for its own private and political benefit.
As alleged by Newsverse, the resources of the former Prosecutor General's office and personnel were used to collect evidence and draft the charges. The official responsible for the alleged wrongful acts, subordinate to Yoon, at the relevant time was Son Chun-seong, from the Supreme Prosecutor's investigation information policy office ( 손준성 대검 수사정보정책관 ).* It is believed by many observers that it is unlikely that Son acted on his own without Yoon's knowledge. It is also alleged that Son's office was engaged in collection of all media reports critical of Yoon and his family members suggesting the latter had committed unlawful acts. What would be the motive of assembling such a collection other than intimidation or retribution against critics and accusers? Son denies the allegations. Woong the conservative National Assembly representative from Songpa, who received the charge sheets and another judicial decision document, claims he doesn't know who transmitted them. About the time the charge sheets went public, the messenger service facilitating the transfer was erased. Those in communication on the service at the material time are allegedly unknown. Kim Woong the UFP/PPP politician who received the charge sheets and court document basically authenticated them with his misleading statements and claims he "can't remember" the pertinent details. Kim is a former prosecutor with a preexisting connection to Son.
* [분석과 해설] 범 여권 인사 야당 고발 사주는 명백한 정치공작...윤석열 '검찰권 사유화' 이진동 기자 : 입력 2021.09.02 08:56: http://www.newsverse.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=424
It's not clear who the original sources are who leaked the materials supporting this story. More investigation is necessary. The current Prosecutor General, Kim Oh-soo, and Minister of Justice, Park Beom-gae, intend to pursue investigation of the alleged wrongdoing. Son is reported to have received a warrant for his electronic communications. This case may be subject to referral to the new and, as yet, untested Office to Investigate High Public Officials. There is speculation that the leaks and publication of the details thus far disclosed by Newsverse originated on the conservative side by politicians hostile to Yoon Seok-yeol's campaign to become the People's Power Party candidate for president. Ironically, Yoon claims the charges against his offices are a "political fabrication."
Thursday, September 2, 2021
님은 먼 곳에. My love far away
님은 먼곳에 ( 김추자, 조관우 ) - 통기타여신 강지민–노래가★좋아 Kang Jimin*
So this is the Vietnam War era South Korean pop hit performed originally by singer Kim Chu-ja. The lyrics are credited to Yoo Ho ( 유호 ) with melody credited to Shin Joong-hyun ( 신중현 ). Singer Cho Gwan-oo performed the song in more recent times. This later performance took place on a talent competition program won by guitar player/singer Kang Jimin. Kang performs many US popular songs as well, mostly oldies. I saw another youtube of this same performance by Kang Jimin dated 2017. That's her father celebrating with her onstage.*
*link- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7odwz5vodCY
Kim Chu-ja's original performance is 1969, on an album with a patriotic theme. The album fits in with the militaristic culture back then during the Park Chung-hee dictatorship. I like her version, but her recording has a night club or cabaret sound to it, which i guess was popular back then but sounds dated now. Kang Jimin's more contemporary style is mellow and pleasant sounding I think. I had a copy of Kim Chu-ja's album years ago, and would play it driving cross country. I knew the words by heart. When I tried to translate it to English, I had some trouble because the subject in some the lyric phrases isn't expressed clearly, often the case in Korean. That also gives the listener the option of subjective interpretation. So I assumed the context to be the theme of the soldier who left home to fight a war and didn't come back. Other youtube video presentations of the song confirmed this to be the case. There is also more upbeat patriotic song on Kim's same album, called (Sunburned) Sergeant Kim back from Vietnam (월남에서 돌아온 새까만 김상사 ) which makes the context clear.
님은 먼 곳에 My love far away
사랑한다고 말할 걸 그랬지 I would have said I love you,
님이 아니면 못 산다 할 것을 if you aren't my love I couldn't live
사랑한다고 말할 걸 그랬지 I would have said I love you,
망설이다가 가 버린 사람 I hesitated and now that person is gone away
마음 주고 눈물 주고 Gave his heart, gave his tears
꿈도 주고 멀어져 갔네 dreams, too, he gave, now gone far away
님은 먼 곳에 My love to a far away place
영원히 먼 곳에 To a forever far away place
망설이다가 While I hesitated.
님은 먼 곳에 My love went to a far place
Saturday, August 28, 2021
South Korea: Some presidential campaign survey indications
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) Current fitness for presidential office survey among opposition party members in percent surveyed. People's Power Party candidates shown in red. Yoon Seok-yeol, 28.6; Hong Jun-pyo, 20.9; Yoo Seung-min, 9.3; Shim Sang-jung, (Justice Party), 5.5; Choi Jae-hyung, 4.1; Ahn Chul-soo, (independent) 2.8.
The first graphic of survey results above shows that Yoon is receiving a significant challenge from rival presidential candidate Hong Jun-pyo within the People's Power Party. Hong is making significant gains on Yoon's leading position. Hong has in the last few days made disparaging remarks about Yoon's lack of loyalty. One independent publication quoted him saying one "who has betrayed, can betray again." This is reference to Yoon's apparent opportunism. Yoon as prosecutor participated in the impeachment trial effort against former President Park Geun-hye, and lately has indicated that he feels some remorse for his role.
Another perspective might be that Yoon was appointed Prosecutor General by the Moon administration after the Park Geun Hye impeachment process, and then turned against the incumbent administration, in a series of allegedly politically motivated cases, including the prosecutions of the former Blue House secretary and Justice Minister, Cho Guk, and his family. Yoon is placed in a dilemna by Hong's critique, because as a prosecutor he was duty bound to remain impartial in the execution of official duties. A Justice Ministry disciplinary board in December 2020 found that he violated his duty of political impartiality as a public prosecutor in at least one case. This was the so called Channel A News case, aimed at framing former minister and well known democratic political pundit, Yoo Shi-min, for financial crimes.* Yoon could claim he is impartial, and that this is the reason he would support the prosecution of both Park Geun-hye, a conservative, but then later directed investigations and prosecutions of democratic party related figures. That claim won't endear him to some conservatives, still loyal to former president Park. In terms of Yoon's purported upright ethical stance, past and pending investigations of Yoon, his wife, and his mother in law, create the appearance of impropriety, which Hong can exploit in the future. If Hong doesn't get the PPP nomination, he could still run as an independent conservative candidate damaging Yoon's prospects in the final presidential contest.
*See our December 16 addendum to the December 15, 2020, post on this blog: Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol suspended for 2 months by Discipline Committee. See also: Yoon's petition concerning the alleged illegality of the disciplinary committee's actions were recently dismissed by the Constitutional Court on June 24 in a 6-1 decision, as legally insufficient. 윤석열 제기한 '검사징계법 헌법소원', 각하…어떤 뜻? 유영규 기자, SBS 뉴스 6.21; 원본 링크 : https://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N1006367683&plink=COPYPASTE&cooper=SBSNEWSEND; cited in this blog's post: Yoon Seok-yeol "X files" controversy growing, June 28, 2021.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) This graphic displays polling results among democrats (Minjudang) with August weekly results for the two top candidates up to August 21. Lee Jae-myung, a "populist" democrat, the current governor of Gyeonggido (province) is the leader with 46.7 percent over Lee Nak-yon, former party leader, former prime minister, and assembly representative, with 24.0 percent. Chung Sye-kyun, former prime minister and former Assmebly Speaker, with 3.8 percent; and Chu Mi-ae, former justice minister, with 2.7 percent. Chu Mi-ae, seems to be on the stump to make clear that Lee Nak-yon did little to support President Moon's reform agenda in the administration of justice while he was party leader and did little to support her when she was justice minister trying to reign in Yook Seok-yeol's politically biased actions as Prosecutor General. Number 2, Lee Nak-yon is the centrist candidate in the democratic party.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) Results of a hypothetical face off presidential election between democrat Lee Jae-myung, (left) 40.7 percent, and People's Power Party (conservative) candidate, Yoon Seok-yeol, at 45.5 percent (right). Yoon has an overwhelming advantage for the over age sixty voters, and with voters under thirty years old. Lee has made substantial inroads in the preference of voters in their thirties according to this poll. Democrats dominated in the forties and fifties (middle aged) demographic groups in prior elections. Lee's progress with voters in their thirties has to do with his practical proposals for economic development, housing and income support.
An MBN poll shows Lee Jae-myung v. Yoon at 33.3 percent v 37.1 percent respectively, in Yoon's favor. This is approaching the margin of the error so the results thus far are encouraging but still problematic for Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign. On the positive side for Lee are his substanitial policy proposals targeted at economic impacts of the pandemic and the housing shortage. With universal basic income proposals, tax incentives and subsidies on the table he can avoid the trap of simply criticizing his rivals. For this reason he is making some inroads on the 39 and under voter demographic. The 39 and under age groups supported Moon Jae-in's 2017 presidential election and the election of democrats in the National Assembly election in April 2020. But the younger voters swung heavily in favor of conservative candidates who won the their mayoral elections in Seoul and Pusan, in April 2021. Given the commitment of elder voters by a wide margin to the conservative candidate Yoon, seen thus far, the youth vote could still swing the upcoming presidential election in the first week of March 2022 in Yoon's favor.
Another problem for Yoon Seok-yeol is his gaffe-a-day image, which motivated his camp to avoid the scheduled televised policy discussion among prospective PPP candidates for president planned for August. Yoon appears not to have any concrete policy domestically other than opposition to President Moon Jae-in, opposition to legal reforms, and a poorly articulated, super conservative, Milton Friedman approach to economics. Essentially, Yoon represents the vested special interests, and the corporate chaebol that typically run the country behind the scenes. The longer Yoon is off a public platform being questioned by other campaigners the better he is likely to perform in polls. The point is also made in this 언론 알아야 바꾼다 video commentary, concerning the role of the conservative press and uncritical voters, that they were quite able to put a corrupt politician in the presidential office as demonstrated in particular by the election of former president Lee Myung-bak. Lee MB's financial corruption was blatant, but apparently did not receive enough public attention to have any effect on his rise to the Blue House. So the same may be possible for Yoon Seok-yeol, whose alleged corruption and the investigations pending against him are either blatantly ignored by the overwhelmingly conservative media, or treated as politically motivated charges without substance. It remains to be seen how the half dozen or so investigations against Yoon, his wife or mother in law, will turn out, or how they will affect the election process. Any investigation or proceeding, and particularly those against Yoon personally based upon his actions while a prosecutor, are likely to be challenged by his camp and the conservative media on the basis that they are "interference in the free presidential election process," by the incumbent adminstration.
The first graphic of survey results above shows that Yoon is receiving a significant challenge from rival presidential candidate Hong Jun-pyo within the People's Power Party. Hong is making significant gains on Yoon's leading position. Hong has in the last few days made disparaging remarks about Yoon's lack of loyalty. One independent publication quoted him saying one "who has betrayed, can betray again." This is reference to Yoon's apparent opportunism. Yoon as prosecutor participated in the impeachment trial effort against former President Park Geun-hye, and lately has indicated that he feels some remorse for his role.
Another perspective might be that Yoon was appointed Prosecutor General by the Moon administration after the Park Geun Hye impeachment process, and then turned against the incumbent administration, in a series of allegedly politically motivated cases, including the prosecutions of the former Blue House secretary and Justice Minister, Cho Guk, and his family. Yoon is placed in a dilemna by Hong's critique, because as a prosecutor he was duty bound to remain impartial in the execution of official duties. A Justice Ministry disciplinary board in December 2020 found that he violated his duty of political impartiality as a public prosecutor in at least one case. This was the so called Channel A News case, aimed at framing former minister and well known democratic political pundit, Yoo Shi-min, for financial crimes.* Yoon could claim he is impartial, and that this is the reason he would support the prosecution of both Park Geun-hye, a conservative, but then later directed investigations and prosecutions of democratic party related figures. That claim won't endear him to some conservatives, still loyal to former president Park. In terms of Yoon's purported upright ethical stance, past and pending investigations of Yoon, his wife, and his mother in law, create the appearance of impropriety, which Hong can exploit in the future. If Hong doesn't get the PPP nomination, he could still run as an independent conservative candidate damaging Yoon's prospects in the final presidential contest.
*See our December 16 addendum to the December 15, 2020, post on this blog: Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol suspended for 2 months by Discipline Committee. See also: Yoon's petition concerning the alleged illegality of the disciplinary committee's actions were recently dismissed by the Constitutional Court on June 24 in a 6-1 decision, as legally insufficient. 윤석열 제기한 '검사징계법 헌법소원', 각하…어떤 뜻? 유영규 기자, SBS 뉴스 6.21; 원본 링크 : https://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N1006367683&plink=COPYPASTE&cooper=SBSNEWSEND; cited in this blog's post: Yoon Seok-yeol "X files" controversy growing, June 28, 2021.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) This graphic displays polling results among democrats (Minjudang) with August weekly results for the two top candidates up to August 21. Lee Jae-myung, a "populist" democrat, the current governor of Gyeonggido (province) is the leader with 46.7 percent over Lee Nak-yon, former party leader, former prime minister, and assembly representative, with 24.0 percent. Chung Sye-kyun, former prime minister and former Assmebly Speaker, with 3.8 percent; and Chu Mi-ae, former justice minister, with 2.7 percent. Chu Mi-ae, seems to be on the stump to make clear that Lee Nak-yon did little to support President Moon's reform agenda in the administration of justice while he was party leader and did little to support her when she was justice minister trying to reign in Yook Seok-yeol's politically biased actions as Prosecutor General. Number 2, Lee Nak-yon is the centrist candidate in the democratic party.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) Results of a hypothetical face off presidential election between democrat Lee Jae-myung, (left) 40.7 percent, and People's Power Party (conservative) candidate, Yoon Seok-yeol, at 45.5 percent (right). Yoon has an overwhelming advantage for the over age sixty voters, and with voters under thirty years old. Lee has made substantial inroads in the preference of voters in their thirties according to this poll. Democrats dominated in the forties and fifties (middle aged) demographic groups in prior elections. Lee's progress with voters in their thirties has to do with his practical proposals for economic development, housing and income support.
An MBN poll shows Lee Jae-myung v. Yoon at 33.3 percent v 37.1 percent respectively, in Yoon's favor. This is approaching the margin of the error so the results thus far are encouraging but still problematic for Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign. On the positive side for Lee are his substanitial policy proposals targeted at economic impacts of the pandemic and the housing shortage. With universal basic income proposals, tax incentives and subsidies on the table he can avoid the trap of simply criticizing his rivals. For this reason he is making some inroads on the 39 and under voter demographic. The 39 and under age groups supported Moon Jae-in's 2017 presidential election and the election of democrats in the National Assembly election in April 2020. But the younger voters swung heavily in favor of conservative candidates who won the their mayoral elections in Seoul and Pusan, in April 2021. Given the commitment of elder voters by a wide margin to the conservative candidate Yoon, seen thus far, the youth vote could still swing the upcoming presidential election in the first week of March 2022 in Yoon's favor.
Another problem for Yoon Seok-yeol is his gaffe-a-day image, which motivated his camp to avoid the scheduled televised policy discussion among prospective PPP candidates for president planned for August. Yoon appears not to have any concrete policy domestically other than opposition to President Moon Jae-in, opposition to legal reforms, and a poorly articulated, super conservative, Milton Friedman approach to economics. Essentially, Yoon represents the vested special interests, and the corporate chaebol that typically run the country behind the scenes. The longer Yoon is off a public platform being questioned by other campaigners the better he is likely to perform in polls. The point is also made in this 언론 알아야 바꾼다 video commentary, concerning the role of the conservative press and uncritical voters, that they were quite able to put a corrupt politician in the presidential office as demonstrated in particular by the election of former president Lee Myung-bak. Lee MB's financial corruption was blatant, but apparently did not receive enough public attention to have any effect on his rise to the Blue House. So the same may be possible for Yoon Seok-yeol, whose alleged corruption and the investigations pending against him are either blatantly ignored by the overwhelmingly conservative media, or treated as politically motivated charges without substance. It remains to be seen how the half dozen or so investigations against Yoon, his wife or mother in law, will turn out, or how they will affect the election process. Any investigation or proceeding, and particularly those against Yoon personally based upon his actions while a prosecutor, are likely to be challenged by his camp and the conservative media on the basis that they are "interference in the free presidential election process," by the incumbent adminstration.
Wednesday, August 25, 2021
Vice President Kamela Harris in Asia
The intemperate remarks of VP Harris about Chinese "bullying" and "intimidation" in the South China Sea, and their alleged failure to comply with the "rules based order," (whatever that is) reflects poorly on her leadership ability and judgement. I noticed that she dropped the typical rhetoric about "democracy" and "our values," basically the only recognition that she wasn't addressing a US audience. Otherwise, she appeared to be lost in the imaginary world of the DC echo chamber with absolutely no grasp of the history or situation in East Asia. That she would continue with the disastrous course and tone set by Blinken and company in Anchorage, suggests that she is clueless when it comes to foreign policy.
Ostensibly, this entire US approach seeking allies in Southeast Asia against China rests on the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). One has yet to see any American publicly question the soundness or jurisdiction of the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) "compulsory arbitration" decision against China in 2016 purportedly based upon UNCLOS. China had opted out of UNCLOS with respect to the South China Sea disputes ten years earlier. The ITLOS was shepherded by a Japanese diplomat and jurist who had been Japan's former ambassador to Washington. Shunji Yanai, the ITLOS director, appointed four of the five “arbitrators” to the Permanent Court of Arbitration tribunal.* The decision was one sided, and based on little more than illogical reasoning and clever wording. What does one expect in what amounted to default judgement in the absence of the principal party who never acquiesced to jurisdiction? Neither the PRC nor Taiwan recognize the decision. The decision is void for lack of jurisdiction both in terms of process and subject matter. The ITLOs decision on the Philippines maritime dispute with China is a poor decision upon which to stake out international policy.
*News Analysis: Shunji Yanai, manipulator behind illegal South China Sea arbitration (Xinhua) 13:12, July 17, 2016; http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0717/c90000-9087223.html
UNCLOS is inapplicable to "the issues of sovereignty or historic titles and rights." Disputes between states arising before the implementation of the Convention on the Law of the Sea are also not subject to its jurisdiction.* The constant references to the PCA's inapplicable and void UNCLOS based decision in Western media is just one sided advocacy that omits countervailing facts and arguments. The decision is based upon faulty logic and bizarre findings applied to reach a decision unfavorable to China despite the obvious lack of jurisdiction. Among the bizarre findings dismissing Chinese claims to an EEZ in the Spratleys out of existence is the fiction was that Itu Aba (Taiping Island) was "not an island."
*The South China Sea Arbitration (The Philippines v. China): Assessment of the Award on Jurisdiction and Admissibility Sreenivasa Rao Pemmaraju Author Chinese Journal of International Law, Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2016, Pages 265–307, https://doi.org/10.1093/chinesejil/jmw019 Published: 20 June 2016 https://academic.oup.com/chinesejil/article/15/2/265/2548386
It is somewhat telling that the US never even ratified UNCLOS. The UK not too long ago rejected an international tribunal decision on the Chagos Islands, where the US Diego Garcia base is located. No sanctimonious statements on the rejection of the "rules based order" heard on this issue. In geopolitical terms, the US continues to act as a 20th Century hegemon in the western Pacific, and South China Sea. Yet, the region is returning to a more traditional pattern that existed among Asian states and China before the days of "gunboat diplomacy" and the century of humiliation. This is reflected primarily in the "soft" dimension of Chinese economic and diplomatic relationships with its neighbors rather than in the military dimension with which the US is obsessed for domestic reasons. It is up to the states in the region to negotiate their conflicting EEZ claims in the South China Sea. The US so called "Freedom of Navigation" (FON) operations are a wedge to bootstrap US military and commercial interests onto the EEZ claims of neighboring states in the region with the traditional US gunboat approach.
As an elected official, Harris was in a position to exercise her own judgement, apply some diplomatic tact, and speak with restraint and subtlety. Instead, out of ignorance or cynicism, she chose to opt for jingoistic sloganeering to appeal to the "blob" back home. Why would regional Asian states be willing to accept the position of a belligerent US official to the detriment of their own national interests? Why would they be interested in a militarized approach to regional issues promoted by the US, Japan, and Australia, risking military confrontation with their number one trade partner, China? Poorly advised, Harris was sent on a fool's mission, in a manner similar to Wendy Sherman's mission. It is as if, by having US officials overreach themselves internationally on multiple occasions, the US will achieve its objectives. Perhaps Harris thought her trip would enhance her credentials in "foreign affairs," for her next election bid?
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