Showing posts with label election campaign. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election campaign. Show all posts
Saturday, September 4, 2021
Will the legal dam break on Yoon Seok-yeol's presidential campaign?
The Hankyoreh has an English language article on the investigative journalism articles appearing in the relatively unknown Newsverse, a South Korean digital media website, about alleged misconduct in the former Supreme Prosecutor's office. Allegedly while Yoon was Prosecutor General, a subordinate office, under his control, instigated charges by third parties, against democratic party figures and journalists in the period immediately before the April 2020 National Assembly elections.*
*How prosecution’s probe on Newsverse article is linked to Yoon Seok-youl, Posted on : Sep.3,2021 17:53 KST Modified on : Sep.3,2021 17:53 KST, Hankyoreh, By Ock Kee-won; https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1010402.html
The Hankyoreh article has a fairly restrained characterization of Yoon's situation, and isn't depicting the full scope and implications of the story as described by Newsverse.* While leaking of confidential investigative information by prosecutors offices is illegal, particularly the private information of subjects and witnesses, this Hankyoreh article tends to downplay the political significance of the Supreme Prosecutor's investigation information office's alleged unlawful acts while the former Prosecutor General was in office.** Charges were contrived for political purposes, including interference in the electoral process. The charges were intended to intimidate elected political officials or candidates, advocating prosecution reforms, as well as reporters, covering stories that were critical of Yoon, or his family members. The prosecution reforms advocated by the targeted individuals aimed at limiting excessive and unchecked investigatory powers of prosecution offices to prevent them from being manipulated for politically partisan purposes.
*[단독] 윤석열 검찰, 총선 코앞 유시민·최강욱·황희석 등 국민의힘에 고발 사주, 전혁수 기자, 입력 2021.09.02 08:59; http://www.newsverse.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=417
** The titles Supreme Prosecutor and Prosecutor General are equivalent titles describing the same office, previously held by Yoon Seok-yeol. Prosecutor General Kim Oh-soo, the current "Supreme Prosecutor," said the charges will be investigated because they reflect adversely on the reputation of the office. Yoon Seok-yeal is currently the leading conservative candidate for the presidency of South Korea.
The charges concocted by the Supreme Prosecutor's Office were intended, in part, to thwart public reporting of adverse information about Yoon, Yoon's family, and his subordinate prosecutor, Han Dong-hoon. Two of the figures investigated and slated for prosecution for defamation against the aforementioned parties, were the party spokesperson for the satellite democratic party, Choi Kang-ook, and the party leader for the same party, Hwang Hwi-seok, both National Assembly representatives. A third prominent target was Yoo Shi-min, director of the No Mu-hyun Foundation. These two politicians on the left, and outspoken pundit Yoo, have been advocates and supporters of prosecutorial reforms in South Korea, intended to remove excessive investigative powers from the Supreme Prosecutor's offices, and turn them over to separate agencies, the police, a new separate serious crimes investigation office, and another independent new office for investigation of senior public officials.
In effect, the prosecution reforms remove the former investigatory powers of the prosecutors' offices. In the course of their advocacy for prosecutorial reform, the targeted individuals discussed specific instances of alleged obstruction of justice and case interference allegedly related to Yoon's office. In particular, Choi and Yoo were outspoken about the alleged practice of misusing public prosecutors" offices, to protect powerful economic interests, and protect Yoon's family members or subordinates from investigation and prosecution for alleged wrongful acts and corruption. So what this current story is really about is Yoon's alleged practice of using his offices to advance and protect his private personal and political interests. This was characterized in Newsverse, as privatizing the prosecution function, demonstrated by instigating these politically motivated charges at political rivals and reporters.
It is alleged that the Supreme Prosecutor's investigation information policy office unlawfully drafted the charge sheets, without identifying the complainant bringing charges in each case. The charge sheets were allegedly transmitted to a conservative candidate in the United Future Party, Kim Woong, (now serving as a member of the National Assembly), during the 2020 campaign, ultimately for transfer to other private parties to file charges. The Supreme Prosecutor's investigative information office thereby unlawfully sought to induce the private charges which would then precipitate the litigation the prosecution itself as a politicized office was seeking to prosecute for its own private and political benefit.
As alleged by Newsverse, the resources of the former Prosecutor General's office and personnel were used to collect evidence and draft the charges. The official responsible for the alleged wrongful acts, subordinate to Yoon, at the relevant time was Son Chun-seong, from the Supreme Prosecutor's investigation information policy office ( 손준성 대검 수사정보정책관 ).* It is believed by many observers that it is unlikely that Son acted on his own without Yoon's knowledge. It is also alleged that Son's office was engaged in collection of all media reports critical of Yoon and his family members suggesting the latter had committed unlawful acts. What would be the motive of assembling such a collection other than intimidation or retribution against critics and accusers? Son denies the allegations. Woong the conservative National Assembly representative from Songpa, who received the charge sheets and another judicial decision document, claims he doesn't know who transmitted them. About the time the charge sheets went public, the messenger service facilitating the transfer was erased. Those in communication on the service at the material time are allegedly unknown. Kim Woong the UFP/PPP politician who received the charge sheets and court document basically authenticated them with his misleading statements and claims he "can't remember" the pertinent details. Kim is a former prosecutor with a preexisting connection to Son.
* [분석과 해설] 범 여권 인사 야당 고발 사주는 명백한 정치공작...윤석열 '검찰권 사유화' 이진동 기자 : 입력 2021.09.02 08:56: http://www.newsverse.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=424
It's not clear who the original sources are who leaked the materials supporting this story. More investigation is necessary. The current Prosecutor General, Kim Oh-soo, and Minister of Justice, Park Beom-gae, intend to pursue investigation of the alleged wrongdoing. Son is reported to have received a warrant for his electronic communications. This case may be subject to referral to the new and, as yet, untested Office to Investigate High Public Officials. There is speculation that the leaks and publication of the details thus far disclosed by Newsverse originated on the conservative side by politicians hostile to Yoon Seok-yeol's campaign to become the People's Power Party candidate for president. Ironically, Yoon claims the charges against his offices are a "political fabrication."
Saturday, August 28, 2021
South Korea: Some presidential campaign survey indications
The first graphic of survey results above shows that Yoon is receiving a significant challenge from rival presidential candidate Hong Jun-pyo within the People's Power Party. Hong is making significant gains on Yoon's leading position. Hong has in the last few days made disparaging remarks about Yoon's lack of loyalty. One independent publication quoted him saying one "who has betrayed, can betray again." This is reference to Yoon's apparent opportunism. Yoon as prosecutor participated in the impeachment trial effort against former President Park Geun-hye, and lately has indicated that he feels some remorse for his role.
Another perspective might be that Yoon was appointed Prosecutor General by the Moon administration after the Park Geun Hye impeachment process, and then turned against the incumbent administration, in a series of allegedly politically motivated cases, including the prosecutions of the former Blue House secretary and Justice Minister, Cho Guk, and his family. Yoon is placed in a dilemna by Hong's critique, because as a prosecutor he was duty bound to remain impartial in the execution of official duties. A Justice Ministry disciplinary board in December 2020 found that he violated his duty of political impartiality as a public prosecutor in at least one case. This was the so called Channel A News case, aimed at framing former minister and well known democratic political pundit, Yoo Shi-min, for financial crimes.* Yoon could claim he is impartial, and that this is the reason he would support the prosecution of both Park Geun-hye, a conservative, but then later directed investigations and prosecutions of democratic party related figures. That claim won't endear him to some conservatives, still loyal to former president Park. In terms of Yoon's purported upright ethical stance, past and pending investigations of Yoon, his wife, and his mother in law, create the appearance of impropriety, which Hong can exploit in the future. If Hong doesn't get the PPP nomination, he could still run as an independent conservative candidate damaging Yoon's prospects in the final presidential contest.
*See our December 16 addendum to the December 15, 2020, post on this blog: Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol suspended for 2 months by Discipline Committee. See also: Yoon's petition concerning the alleged illegality of the disciplinary committee's actions were recently dismissed by the Constitutional Court on June 24 in a 6-1 decision, as legally insufficient. 윤석열 제기한 '검사징계법 헌법소원', 각하…어떤 뜻? 유영규 기자, SBS 뉴스 6.21; 원본 링크 : https://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N1006367683&plink=COPYPASTE&cooper=SBSNEWSEND; cited in this blog's post: Yoon Seok-yeol "X files" controversy growing, June 28, 2021.
An MBN poll shows Lee Jae-myung v. Yoon at 33.3 percent v 37.1 percent respectively, in Yoon's favor. This is approaching the margin of the error so the results thus far are encouraging but still problematic for Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign. On the positive side for Lee are his substanitial policy proposals targeted at economic impacts of the pandemic and the housing shortage. With universal basic income proposals, tax incentives and subsidies on the table he can avoid the trap of simply criticizing his rivals. For this reason he is making some inroads on the 39 and under voter demographic. The 39 and under age groups supported Moon Jae-in's 2017 presidential election and the election of democrats in the National Assembly election in April 2020. But the younger voters swung heavily in favor of conservative candidates who won the their mayoral elections in Seoul and Pusan, in April 2021. Given the commitment of elder voters by a wide margin to the conservative candidate Yoon, seen thus far, the youth vote could still swing the upcoming presidential election in the first week of March 2022 in Yoon's favor.
Another problem for Yoon Seok-yeol is his gaffe-a-day image, which motivated his camp to avoid the scheduled televised policy discussion among prospective PPP candidates for president planned for August. Yoon appears not to have any concrete policy domestically other than opposition to President Moon Jae-in, opposition to legal reforms, and a poorly articulated, super conservative, Milton Friedman approach to economics. Essentially, Yoon represents the vested special interests, and the corporate chaebol that typically run the country behind the scenes. The longer Yoon is off a public platform being questioned by other campaigners the better he is likely to perform in polls. The point is also made in this 언론 알아야 바꾼다 video commentary, concerning the role of the conservative press and uncritical voters, that they were quite able to put a corrupt politician in the presidential office as demonstrated in particular by the election of former president Lee Myung-bak. Lee MB's financial corruption was blatant, but apparently did not receive enough public attention to have any effect on his rise to the Blue House. So the same may be possible for Yoon Seok-yeol, whose alleged corruption and the investigations pending against him are either blatantly ignored by the overwhelmingly conservative media, or treated as politically motivated charges without substance. It remains to be seen how the half dozen or so investigations against Yoon, his wife or mother in law, will turn out, or how they will affect the election process. Any investigation or proceeding, and particularly those against Yoon personally based upon his actions while a prosecutor, are likely to be challenged by his camp and the conservative media on the basis that they are "interference in the free presidential election process," by the incumbent adminstration.
Monday, August 16, 2021
South Korea Democratic Primary Schedule
New democratic party primary campaign schedule dates: Sep. 4, circuit primary campaigns begin (previously Aug. 7); Sep. 12, party members caste votes in first round primary candidate selection; Oct. 3, second round balloting for presidential candidate; Oct. 10, final voting to confirm democratic party presidential candidate's nomination; Announcement mid-October.
The important dates for the South Korean primary selection process for presidential candidates from an earlier 언론알아야바 video report had outdated information concerning the democratic party primary process. These two graphics are posted as an update/correction. These two graphics from the same source, are taken from the 언알바 youtube video on August 16. The changes in the schedule were secured by supporters of Lee Nak-won and Chung Sye-kyun. It was believed that a four to five week delay in the primary selection schedule would give them some more time to catch up to Lee Jae-myung, the leading democratic candidate and Gyeonggido governor. Lee Nak-yon is 12.9 percent in national polling, and Chung is less than 2 percent.
It was noted in the same program that Lee JM has a distinct advantage in the electoral race as the current governor of Gyeonggido which has more democratic voters than any other jurisdiction in South Korea. Competitors are unlikely to make inroads criticizing Lee JM's proposals for universal income payments to compensate individuals for the adverse economic effects of the pandemic. The reactionary ideological response from the right, that it isn't the government's responsibility to support the people economically is likely to fall flat. The "where are you going to get the money arguments" of centrist democrats like Lee Nak-yon aren't gaining much traction with democrats under the circumstances. As a governor, Lee Jae-myung can get the money right out of his own provincial administration budget and distribute it, while others carp about austerity. Another positive attribute of Lee JM's approach is that it is practical, and demonstrates a commitment to the public welfare and economic issues. Thus the focus of the election is directed away from a negative mandate on the Moon Jae-in administration, where centrists and conservatives without a policy program would like it to stay.
The source 언론알아야바 also noted the public policy discussion scheduled by the People's Power Party candidates for September 17 and 25th. Yoon's camp had indicated a reluctance to participate with a large slate of minor candidates. Hong Joong-pyo has criticized Yoon for his reluctance to debate characterizing it as fear. In another provocative and politically significant move, Hong has gone beyond general criticism of Yoon's politicization of the Prosecutor General's office, to a specific attack on the corruption of the law enforcement processes concerning his mother in law, who was recently convicted of fraud in the operation of a medical facility. Hong specifically raised the issue of whether or not there was political interference in the earlier investigation of the case when a nolle prosse determination was made concerning Yoon's mother in law, Choi. Recently, mother in law Choi, was found guilty at her first trial and sentenced to three years in prison. So Hong has taken the initiative here, firing a shot across the bow, indicating that he accepts the allegations of progressives on the left, and the prosecution reform faction of the democratic party, that Yoon compromised his former public office and the rule of law in South Korea. This is Yoon's achillee's heel. One could argue, that Yoon has to become president in order to protect himself and his family from further investigations and prosecution. There are currently several corruption investigations pending against Yoon, his wife, and mother in law. The conservative mainstream media is avoiding this subject matter as much as possible. They are stake holders in the Yoon political scheme referred to commonly as press-prosecution collusion (to protect corrupt special interests).
If matters related to the alleged corruption of the prosecutors' offices and Yoon's family are fair targets in a political campaign how will the press avoid the issue when they are debated on a televised debate? How will they avoid the issue if Yoon declines to participate? Hong wins either way, and democrats benefit from conservative infighting. Will Hong's scathing commentary on Yoon be limited to facebook posts and social media? Checking the English language media last night, the internal fissure in the PPP is described as a candidate Yoon- Party Leader Lee feud. This was covered in our prior post, but the Hong- Yong rivalry is likely to be more damaging, as Hong is an experienced and able campaigner.
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Saturday, August 14, 2021
South Korea: Presidential campaign- August 12 polling
This episode of 언알바 ( must know media translated )* concentrated on analyzing the emerging power struggle within the so called People's Power Party and how their candidates may fair in the future "primary" process within the major oppostion conservative party. Currently, the leading candidate for president on the right who recently affiliated with the PPP is Yoon Seok-yeol, the former Prosecutor General who left the Moon Jae-in administration and represents an anti- Moon constituency. Yoon is posing as a non-political outsider which often presents a popular option in election campaigns but tends to be unsuccesful in the long run. (Remember Ban Ki-moon's failed campaign?)
Yoon was always a conservative, but an opportunist at heart, showing no hesitancy to participate in the impeachment investigation and trial of former conservative president Park Geun-hye. Yoon's claim to fame as a "reformer" primarily derives from orchestrating prosecutions of political rivals on the left, for "corruption" whether they deserve it or not. Lately, Yoon has expressed some silly or unsophisticated views on political issues that have caused his standing in the polls to drop. Among these is that he regrets participating in the prosecution of Park Geun-hye. This is a black mark for some in the opposing faction within the PPP. His other statements on economic, regulatory, and foreign affairs, are viewed by some observers as "stupid" or at least politically inept. This broadcast emphasized that Yoon's public statements reveal that he over indulges in extreme right youtube videos.
Conservative presidential candidate Hong Joong-pyo has been employing his sharp wit to criticize Yoon Seok-yeol publicly. Yoon's considerable political camp within the PPP includes perhaps a dozen current or former assembly members. They are basically not participating in general party organizing activities intended to mobilize political support and achieve party goals. The pro-Yoon faction generally opposes young party leader, Lee Jun-seok's organizing initiatives and party committee appointments, fearing he may skew the primary processes to select a rival candidate against Yoon. Kim Mu-sung, a party elder, and Yoo Seung-min, a current candidate for president, appear to be supporters of party leader Lee.
Lee Jun-seok, was a protege of the former impeached President Park Geun-hye. Yoon publicly described himself as "a porpoise" in comparison to young party leader Lee Jun-seok, who Yoon described as a "minnow." Lee had characterized Yoon as ( 꼰대 ) boomer (old fashioned, ubervisor, narrow minded, etc.) emphasizing his lack of appeal to younger voters. Following up on Yoon's play on words, candidate Hong said Yoon was a cobblestone or rock ( 돌맹이 ) rather than a porpoise ( 돌고래 ) drawing attention to the Yoon's "gaffe a day" campaign. Some of the conservative constituency is finding this a valid criticism. Ignoring Yoon's unprofessional conduct as a prosecutor, and the alleged corruption scandals surrounding his wife and mother in law, some conservatives still question whether the welfare and security of South Korea can be entrusted to a blockhead who gets his information from dubious internet sources. Did you seee the pictures of Yoon posing in bed with his beloved poodles and cats? Social media commentary runs as follows: What was that? Who is running his campaign? Choi Soon-sil? He looks like a dupe. Is he competent to run the Blue House, the country? As can be seen from the graphic above, Hong made substantial strides in the recent poll of public opinion closing the gap with Yoon.
Summary of important events in the campaign schedule affecting all parties. Registration of preliminary candidates opened on July 12, 2021; The Democratic Party will select its presidential candidate by September 9; The PPP will select its presidential candidate by November 9. In 2022, official registration of presidential candidates begins Feburary 13-14, with the election activity officially beginning Feb. 15; Early ballots March 4-5 and final ballots March 9, 2022.
If Yoon's faction were to bolt from the PPP, residual party members and candidates could form an arrangement with Ahn Chul-su, the perennial independent presidential candidate. The broadcast emphasized Ahn's purported credentials as a political outsider as well and how his approach to presidential campaigns has been unsuccessful in the past.
YTN news is reporting that the Committee to Investigate Crimes by Senior Government Officials has secured a warrant to obtain Justice Ministry and prosecution office records pertaining to official actions by Yoon Seok-yeol related to a "botched" investigation of the Optimus Scandal by Yoon, and an investigation into allegations of Yoon's interference in efforts to uncover falsified evidence in prosecution of former Prime Minister Han Myeong. Witnesses are expected to be called after the records are obtained. The possibility of Yoon being called as a witness himself while primaries are pending is raising complaints of "election interference."
* note: this post relies heavily on the credited source, but also relies on other South Korean political reports as well.
Sunday, August 8, 2021
South Korea: Current presidential candidate standings, August 5.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.8) Joongang survey of public opinion from 8.3 to 8.5: percent approval of leading presidential candidates: Lee Jae-myung, governor of Gyeonggido, democratic party, 25% ; Yoon Seok-yeol, former Prosecutor General, People's Power Party, 19 %; Lee Nak-yon, former national assembly member, floor leader and prime minister, democratic party, 11 % ; and Choi Jae-hyung, former government audit agency head, PPP, 4%.
(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.8) This line chart follows chronologically from Feb 2021 week one (left) fitness for presidential office opinions by percentage surveyed by NBS up to the first week in August (right) for the top three candidates: Lee Jae-myung, democratic party (top blue line, 28% ); Yoon Seok-yeol, PPP candidate (red line, 22% ); and Lee Nak-yon, democratic party (blue-green line, 10% ).
Lee Jae-myung, is the popular democratic governor of Gyeonggi Do (province) a major suburban area around Seoul. He is regarded as the progressive candidate. Yoon Seok-yeol is the conservative independent candidate who just joined the PPP conservative opposition party. Yoon is a former prosecutor whose family is embroiled in controversy and legal investigations. It is widely believed by critics in social media that Yoon and his family are corrupt. His supporters claim that the allegations against him, his spouse and mother in law are politically motivated and unproven. The conservative mainstream media support him. His mother in law was recently sent to prison for a medical benefits fraud scheme after her first trial. The decision is being appealed.
Lee Nak-yon, is the centrist democratic candidate whose criticisms of former democratic Justice Minister Cho Guk (now subject to prosecution initiated and allegedly politically motivated by Yoon) has eroded his support somewhat inside the democratic party. Lee Nak-yon's expressed desire to pardon former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, has also lessened his popular support recently. Choi Jae-hyung, who like Yoon Seok-yeol, held an important post in the democratic Moon Jae-in administration, is regarded as something as an opportunist now posing as a rock ribbed conservative. The presence of Yoon and Choi as PPP candidates is believed to reflect a weak conservative field of candidates. Party primaries initial and secondary, and party designations of their respective candidates have not taken place and won't be completed till fall 2021. The presidential election is scheduled for March 6, 2022.
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