The first graphic of survey results above shows that Yoon is receiving a significant challenge from rival presidential candidate Hong Jun-pyo within the People's Power Party. Hong is making significant gains on Yoon's leading position. Hong has in the last few days made disparaging remarks about Yoon's lack of loyalty. One independent publication quoted him saying one "who has betrayed, can betray again." This is reference to Yoon's apparent opportunism. Yoon as prosecutor participated in the impeachment trial effort against former President Park Geun-hye, and lately has indicated that he feels some remorse for his role.
Another perspective might be that Yoon was appointed Prosecutor General by the Moon administration after the Park Geun Hye impeachment process, and then turned against the incumbent administration, in a series of allegedly politically motivated cases, including the prosecutions of the former Blue House secretary and Justice Minister, Cho Guk, and his family. Yoon is placed in a dilemna by Hong's critique, because as a prosecutor he was duty bound to remain impartial in the execution of official duties. A Justice Ministry disciplinary board in December 2020 found that he violated his duty of political impartiality as a public prosecutor in at least one case. This was the so called Channel A News case, aimed at framing former minister and well known democratic political pundit, Yoo Shi-min, for financial crimes.* Yoon could claim he is impartial, and that this is the reason he would support the prosecution of both Park Geun-hye, a conservative, but then later directed investigations and prosecutions of democratic party related figures. That claim won't endear him to some conservatives, still loyal to former president Park. In terms of Yoon's purported upright ethical stance, past and pending investigations of Yoon, his wife, and his mother in law, create the appearance of impropriety, which Hong can exploit in the future. If Hong doesn't get the PPP nomination, he could still run as an independent conservative candidate damaging Yoon's prospects in the final presidential contest.
*See our December 16 addendum to the December 15, 2020, post on this blog: Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol suspended for 2 months by Discipline Committee. See also: Yoon's petition concerning the alleged illegality of the disciplinary committee's actions were recently dismissed by the Constitutional Court on June 24 in a 6-1 decision, as legally insufficient. 윤석열 제기한 '검사징계법 헌법소원', 각하…어떤 뜻? 유영규 기자, SBS 뉴스 6.21; 원본 링크 : https://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N1006367683&plink=COPYPASTE&cooper=SBSNEWSEND; cited in this blog's post: Yoon Seok-yeol "X files" controversy growing, June 28, 2021.
An MBN poll shows Lee Jae-myung v. Yoon at 33.3 percent v 37.1 percent respectively, in Yoon's favor. This is approaching the margin of the error so the results thus far are encouraging but still problematic for Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign. On the positive side for Lee are his substanitial policy proposals targeted at economic impacts of the pandemic and the housing shortage. With universal basic income proposals, tax incentives and subsidies on the table he can avoid the trap of simply criticizing his rivals. For this reason he is making some inroads on the 39 and under voter demographic. The 39 and under age groups supported Moon Jae-in's 2017 presidential election and the election of democrats in the National Assembly election in April 2020. But the younger voters swung heavily in favor of conservative candidates who won the their mayoral elections in Seoul and Pusan, in April 2021. Given the commitment of elder voters by a wide margin to the conservative candidate Yoon, seen thus far, the youth vote could still swing the upcoming presidential election in the first week of March 2022 in Yoon's favor.
Another problem for Yoon Seok-yeol is his gaffe-a-day image, which motivated his camp to avoid the scheduled televised policy discussion among prospective PPP candidates for president planned for August. Yoon appears not to have any concrete policy domestically other than opposition to President Moon Jae-in, opposition to legal reforms, and a poorly articulated, super conservative, Milton Friedman approach to economics. Essentially, Yoon represents the vested special interests, and the corporate chaebol that typically run the country behind the scenes. The longer Yoon is off a public platform being questioned by other campaigners the better he is likely to perform in polls. The point is also made in this 언론 알아야 바꾼다 video commentary, concerning the role of the conservative press and uncritical voters, that they were quite able to put a corrupt politician in the presidential office as demonstrated in particular by the election of former president Lee Myung-bak. Lee MB's financial corruption was blatant, but apparently did not receive enough public attention to have any effect on his rise to the Blue House. So the same may be possible for Yoon Seok-yeol, whose alleged corruption and the investigations pending against him are either blatantly ignored by the overwhelmingly conservative media, or treated as politically motivated charges without substance. It remains to be seen how the half dozen or so investigations against Yoon, his wife or mother in law, will turn out, or how they will affect the election process. Any investigation or proceeding, and particularly those against Yoon personally based upon his actions while a prosecutor, are likely to be challenged by his camp and the conservative media on the basis that they are "interference in the free presidential election process," by the incumbent adminstration.
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