Hwang Kyo-ahn Has it Both Ways

As long as, the former prime minister is suspected of considering martial law plans in 2017, he seeks to take political credit from those who would have welcomed martial law, while denying he had any role.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.28 ) Hwang Kyo-ahn, former prime minister, and leader of the Liberty Korea Party, (right); and Na Kyung-won, National Assembly floor leader of Liberty Korea Party, (center) attend 40th Memorial Service for assassinated dictator Park Chung-hee (10.26). Hwang is quoted as saying, "we must learn the spirit of Park Chung-hee."

There are recent reports on the disclosure of new evidence, National Security Council documents, detailing preparations for the implementation of martial law during the waning days of the Park Geun-hye impeachment proceedings. During this time in February and early March 2017, it appears from the documentation, that the commander of the Defense Security Command, prepared plans to implement martial law, to avoid the fall of the conservative Park Geun-hye administration. The official National Security Council documents are circumstantial evidence that the then acting president and prime minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, had knowledge of the plans, and perhaps as acting chair of the NSC, played a role in their formulation. Hwang has made flat denials of any knowledge of such preparations for the implementation of martial law to save the conservative administration. At the time, democratic opposition protesters were carrying out massive demonstrations in Gwanghwamun and other locations in South Korea during the pendency of the Park Geun-hye impeachment process. Other observers have attempted to belittle the significance of the martial law plans, suggesting that at worst, they were only contingency plans to deal with public disorder rather than a coup d'etat to overthrow the constitutional order. It is not clear what happened during the very last days preceding the conviction of Park Geun-hye by the Constitutional Court. The critical witness to the formulation of the martial law plans, and their potential execution was the commander of the Defense Security Command, Cho Hyun-cheon ( 조현천 기무사령관 ). He was the key person involved in their development. It is important to note in this regard, that the same role was played by former president Chun Du-won as the Defense Security Command commander after the assassination of Park Chung-hee (Park Geun-hye's father) forty years earlier after the fall of the Yushin Constitution. The coup planning DSC commander Cho Hyun-cheon, in question now, fled South Korea, and his whereabouts are allegedly unknown. Interpol has refused to issue a warrant calling for his arrest citing a policy not to use legal process in political cases. All of this is according to an interview of Im Tae-hun of the Military Human Rights Center ( 임태훈 군인권센터 ) who represents the whistle blower who leaked classified NSC documents. *


* https://news.v.daum.net/v/20191021211005908, (transcript of youtube podcast) MBC radio interview 10.21

(Source- OhMyNews 10.30) Im Tae-hun press briefing at the Military Human Rights Center.


Significant detail in the 2017 martial law plans in question called for various army units to deploy to the Gwanghwamun plaza site of the so-called "candlelight" demonstrations, multiple major university campus locations, strategic bridges in Seoul, and to Yoido, the location of the National Assembly. All these tactical moves with a view toward dispersing demonstrators, arresting activists and political opposition leaders, blocking movements of citizens, and preventing the normal governmental functions of the National Assembly.

In an ironic turnabout, the Liberty Korea Party currently in its role of political opposition, has organized demonstrations at Gwanghwamun against the current Moon Jae-in, democratic administration. Although LKP floor leader Na, gave herself an award for toppling the Justice Minister Cho Guk from his newly appointed position, it is likely that the Chief Prosecutor's office is the more responsible party. After attending an overnight Gwangwhamun demonstration this weekend, LKP leaders Hwang and Na, attended the 40th memorial ceremony for former president Park Chung-hye. The former president has been credited with modernizing the Korean economy while ruling South Korea with an iron fist in a military like social order. The former dictator was also credited with "normalizing" relations with Japan, which the blog has described elsewhere. This modernization effort was characterized by self serving corruption by the former Japanese trained military officer and his pro-Japanese political and business cronies. The LKP represents the heirs of this Park political tradition. These interests have consistently blocked efforts to come to terms with the Japanese colonial legacy in Korea for decades.


Cho Guk recently had been appointed Justice Minister to reform the national prosecutor's office. It appears that there was an element of bias in prosecution resistance to the widely supported initiative to check the unbridled power of the "republic of lawyers." The apparent corruption of Cho Guk's family members gave them a lever to force him out of office. The prosecutor's office was accused of multiple leaks by some journalists which added to the political unrest in the streets. On the other hand, the lawyer, Im Tae-hoon who represents the martial law plans whistle blower, asserts that the Chief Prosecutors Office has deliberately sat on documentation that casts suspicion on Hwang Kyo-Ahn's complicity in martial law plans. The far right opposes fast track reform while an agreement has been reached by four political parties to fast track the prosecutorial reform legislation so as to get a floor vote during this session of the National Assembly.

Source- JTBC News, 10.28 ) Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the Liberty Korea Party, and Na Kyung-won, National Assembly floor leader of Liberty Korea Party, are front and center at the 40th Memorial Ceremony for the former President Park Chung-hee, 10.26. The sign above the portal says refers to President Park Chung-hee's philosophy as a father of the country, "a proper country has a strong military."

Ironically, Hwang's presence at the memorial service for the former dictator was marked by some boos and jeers calling him "traitor." It is notable that the impeachment of Park Geun-hye took place while Hwang was acting president. She was tried under impeachment proceedings before the Constitutional Court. Apparently some in the conservative audience thought Hwang should have done something about it while he had the opportunity. The peaceful transition of power by impeachment and free elections, is viewed as a betrayal by the ultra far right elements attending not only the Park 40th Memorial but also the current Gwanghwamun demonstrations sponsored by the LKP: protestant evangelicals that elected Park Geun-hye; and the far right pro-dictator elements. Hwang has been reported to have said things such as we need to remember "Park Chung-hee's leadership concerning the economy during a difficult economic period of which there are many examples." Also "we must learn the spirit of Park Chung-hee." As to the anti-Moon Jae-in demonstrations calling for the democratic president's arrest and ouster, Hwang said the demonstrations reflect the "anger of the people." Political commentators noted that it is evident that the LKP leadership intends these demonstrations continue. There were other cynical observations about the role of churches and the party apparently furnishing free food as inducements to gather. One expert said, Cho Guk's fall was no cause to relax, "they caught the rabbit in the house, now it's time to catch the rabbit in the mountain." Another observation was that South Korea may only be at the half way point in this constitutional confrontation.

In another late news item, it was reported that leader Na, appeared at press briefing with the National Assembly leader, Moon Hee-sang, and two other party leaders, to announce that the Assembly committee handling fast track legislation approved referral of a prosecutorial reform bill to the Assembly floor for a vote. During the news item it was noted that the representatives from the center right Barun Mirae Party, and the Justice Party were demonstrating on the floor for a vote to fast track the Legislative reform bill first. As the blog has noted previously, it is this extension of proportional (nation wide) seating that is expected to decrease the number of district seats held by the Liberty Korea Party. Until this matter is resolved, street politics and associated political theater in Seoul are likely to continue unabated. Na said something like this to the National Assembly leader, "I'd rather stop this unconstitutional fast track process than hold hands (for a photo shoot)." The leader responded, "I'd rather hold a wrist, than be grabbed by the ankle." The latter a reference to the continual obstruction of legislation by the LKP opposition. LKP physical obstruction of committee efforts led by Na last April is currently subject to an investigation by prosecutors.

Korean Students Trespass on US Ambassador's Residence: Reflections

One can read or watch the short accounts of a relatively small group of South Korean college students climbing the wall of Ambassador Harris' official residence in Seoul. Some well qualified pundits of South Korean affairs have taken the opportunity to righteously condemn what was an obviously illegal demonstration. Nineteen students involved have been arrested. The historical and political context is somewhat lost, as legality is the ultimate arbiter for others, as Americans sometimes tacitly and sometimes openly approve of illegal operations when it favors their own cause. One, can't help but think of the "Free Choseon" group that attacked the North Korean embassy in Madrid on the eve of the Hanoi Summit. For a brief time, this was a cause celebre in certain US circles. The former Marine intelligence specialist, Christopher Ahn, was arrested in the US for his alleged participation, jailed, and then released on conditions pending a Spanish government extradition request. Whatever intelligence was gleaned from the hand phones and hard drives taken from the DPRK embassy by the group, was delivered to the FBI, not surprisingly. A patina of official legality was maintained by returning the items, issuing a warrant for Adrian Hong, the group's Yale educated ring-leader, and arresting Ahn.

But all that aside, the substance of the unlawful "sit in" demonstration at the US Ambassador's residence is historically significant because it relates back to a time in the late 19th Century when foreign legations sought to control Korea's fate. Early on, the Japanese and Chinese contended for dominance in late Chosun. The Chinese were defeated by the fledgling modern Japanese armed forces in the Sino-Japanese War. After that the Russian and Japanese delegations vied for control of the Chosun emperor's court. Empress Myeongseong who attempted to resist Japanese coercion of the struggling Chosun dynasty, was assassinated by agents of the Japanese right in Gyeongbokgung palace, October 28, 1895. Periodically, Japanese troops entered the palace grounds. Gojong the "Emperor" was offered protection in the Russian legation official residence. That refuge didn't last. The Russians ultimately lost the Russo-Japanese War for dominance in Korea. For a brief period Gojong moved next to the US legation residence in Seoul to obtain the advantage of the protection of USMC guards next door. That didn't last as the US abandoned it's "open door" policy in Chosun for a cynical deal with the Japanese recognizing their dominance in Korea in exchange for US colonial dominance in the Philippines.

Lee Won Yong, prime minister, and Ito Hirobumi, resident general of the Korean protectorate, circa 1907. Ito was assassinated in Harbin in 1909, and Lee was the victim of an attempted assassination by stabbing months later in Seoul. Lee was known at the leading traitor of Eulsa. As the erstwhile leader of the Korean Independence Federation, and prime minister of Chosun, Lee had lost foreign support for the independence of Korea.


In 1905, the "Emperor" Gojong refused to sign the "Treaty of Eulsa," which made Korea a "protectorate" of Japan. Those Korean officials who did sign it went down in infamy as the "traitors of Eulsa," which unfortunately included the acting prime minister, who also led the Korean Independence Federation, and betrayed its principles for the proverbial forty pieces of silver (actually he was paid about 2.5 million in gold upon signing the Treaty). Although it is said that Korea didn't become a colony until it was officially annexed in 1910, it had already lost all it's sovereignty as a protectorate in 1905. Japanese undue influence over Korea essentially began with it's military involvement in the suppression of the Tonghak movement in 1894 and ebbed and flowed until its victory over Russia in 1905. This was a period when the legations of the more powerful states in the region routinely interfered in the domestic and foreign affairs of Korea. The Korean crown prince was held as a hostage by the Resident General Ito Hirobumi after the Eulsa capitulation. Annexation in 1910, with its pretensions of legality in the heyday of imperialism was just a formality.

So this period so important to the genesis of the Korean Independence Movement, is the backdrop for modern Korean events. Politically aware Koreans know very well what role foreign diplomatic delegations have played in interference in their sovereign matters, whether by coercion or providing financial inducements to heads of state, like the dictator, Park Chung Hee. Ambassador Harris has a "chin il," pro-Japanese bias, as most Americans do, the legacy of the cold war. Perhaps he has a sensitivity to these issues as someone of Asian-American heritage, with a substantial resume in Japan, perhaps not. Clearly, Japan, is not the only power to have coerced South Korea, although it is also doing it again now. However, the admiral cum ambassador's public demand for increasing the South Korean contribution to defense sharing by a factor of five was a blunder of high order. One cannot help but wonder how he conceives his role as ambassador to repeat such a ridiculous demand. Is he just "following orders" as the saying goes? One would expect an ambassador rather than acting merely as an advocate for the president's unreasonable demand in these negotiations to attempt to mitigate the impact by advising the white house and the diplomatic team preparing to negotiate in Hawaii, that they are way out of line. Donald Trump needs more than a yes man in the ambassador's residence.

The presence of large right wing crowds, led by the Liberty Korea Party, near Gwanghwamun plaza, the Gyeongbokgung palace, and the US embassy building, many waving US flags doesn't help any. The net effect is to undermine the current democratic South Korean administration at home while it is negotiating the five year Special Measures Agreement. The coincidence doesn't really escape notice. The embassy's location can't be changed soon enough.

Political Turmoil in South Korea

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) Liberty Korea Party representatives may be charged in a group, as they have refused to respond to summons (from the investigating prosecutors for the April 25 "fast track" incident in the National Assembly.)

The right wing Liberty Korea Party didn't have much time to relish the resignation of the Cho Kuk, the short term Minister of Justice who barely lasted thirty five days after being appointed to reform the National Prosecutor's office in South Korea. This morning prosecution office investigators arrived at the National Assembly Broadcast archives office to collect all video recordings related to last April's Liberty Korea Party sit in blockade of the National Assembly offices to preclude consideration of "fast track" legislative proposals (discussed here in an earlier blog entry Oct 12). The fast track proposals included electoral reform as well as prosecution reform. The presentation of a search warrant at the video archives indicates that the Chief Prosecutor's office has decided to proceed with a formal investigation of the Liberty Korea Party's unlawful acts in the National Assembly building despite their representatives collective refusal to respond to legal process. The prosecution could rely on filing charges against members identified in the video recordings without obtaining individual responses to summons or statements from the conservative representatives. As many as sixty representatives or staff members were involved in the disorder, which ultimately failed to prevent a fast track approval vote the legislative committee.

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) Liberty Korea Party opposition leader in the National Assembly, "I have already said I know that in order for government to finish its (fast track) investigation we will face investigation. Nevertheless, during the regular session of the National Assembly to take colleagues away (from our duties) really..."

Given the suspicions surrounding Cho Kuk's wife and other family members, it may have been a serious mistake for Moon Jae In to appoint him Justice Minister. Minister Cho's sudden resignation on October 14 was the right move in view of increasing domestic dissatisfaction and unrest evidenced by street demonstrations. South Korea's economic difficulties prompted by the ongoing trade disputes in Asia, the rift with Japan, and the unraveling of relations with North Korea have all taken a toll on the approval rating of the democratic administration. One domestic poll reported by JTBC on the 17th reported that Moon's approval rating had improved by more than three percent after the sudden Cho resignation. Today JTBC reported a Gallup poll saying that Moon's popularity had continued to fall and was below forty percent for the first time since he took office.

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) National Assembly Broadcast caught the fast track confrontation live on camera while it happened. Unedited archive videos are sought in the prosecution's search warrant.


The Liberty Korea Party can take little comfort from the polls. It is they now who are being chided publicly for being on the wrong side of the legal process. In addition to the negative publicity of their embarrassing impolitic display of weakness last April, they are now presented with the prospect of dealing with an apparently implacable and capable chief prosecutor. In addition to this, they are faced with potentially losing seats in the National Assembly based on the electoral reform to which four of the political parties have agreed to fast track. This reform may come up for a vote in the Assembly in time to affect the April 2020 elections barring any unforeseen developments. However, unforeseen developments seem to have been the order of the day since the Park impeachment, and anything could happen. Who could have predicted mass demonstrations in Gwanghwamun, as seen on October 3, and October 9 in favor of the right wing party? The democratic party assembly leader commented on the unsavory quality of dictator reverence that seemed to affect some of the crowd. Leader Na responded that democrats had no room to criticize anyone for dictatorial traits.

(Source- JTBC News 10.18) Lee In Yeong, Democratic Party floor leader in the National Assembly. Hiding from the chief prosecutor..."instead of rationalizing self advocacy I wish those of you facing legal process from the prosecutors office respond now. No one, no matter who they are, is above the law."

Under these circumstances, polls mean nothing if the LKP doesn't have a majority in the legislature and is out of stonewalling and diversion tactics. So what will the wily LKP leaders come up with for their next move? More mass street demonstrations? Attempts by demonstrators to enter the Blue House? Violent Black Bloc type tactics seen in Hong Kong presaged in the October 3 Gwanghwamun demonstration? Anything could happen. The trial process against Cho Kuk's spouse began today, but the prosecution hasn't yet complied with discovery requests from the defense based on claims disclosure would adversely affect investigations related to former Minister Cho. The judge did not accept the explanation and further hearing is scheduled.

South Korean Domestic Instability

Last April, representatives of the right wing Liberty Korea Party and their staff illegally obstructed South Korea's National Assembly by blocking the hallways, doors and passageways of the assembly building and in some cases committing assaults in an attempt to stop passage of the so called "fast track" procedure for consideration of bills within 330 days. The fast track measure was proposed as a necessary means to overcome LKP stonewalling legislation by bottling reform bills up in committee indefinitely with their boycotts of the legislative process and other stalling tactics. Recently, 18 members of the LKP have refused to accept summons process from the Seoul Prosecutors Office Southern District in an investigation of their suspected criminal acts in the National Assembly building. In a "tit for tat" response, the LKP filed criminal complaints against members of the ruling Democratic Party. The criminal investigation against the LKP, includes, Na Kyung-won, the party floor leader. Hwang Kyo-ahn, the leader of the LKP and former Saenuri Party Prime Minister during the Park impeachment, who shaved his head in protest to the administration, said he should be the one called to formally answer for the events disrupting the legislative process. Because much of the criminal activity is apparent on video recordings of the scene inside the assembly building and third party witnesses were present, the criminal investigation could go forward without taking statements from the named suspects. Some observers say prosecution of sitting members of the legislature for these actions may simply just aggravate the ongoing political conflict.

The net outcome of this obstruction of governance by the minority conservative opposition party has been to take the issues that are intended for a legislative vote in National Assembly on November 29, and make them an issue for street politics by mass crowds. Democratic partisans have held a total of nine mass demonstrations thus far in favor of prosecution reforms, which will increase investigative powers of police agencies to offset the overwhelming power of the central prosecutors office, and by reducing the special prosecutors offices operating in six regional offices in South Korea. The monopoly of prosecution powers is felt to encourage corruption by making prosecutors, in effect, immune from investigative initiatives from law enforcement. The demonstrations began in response to the two month long investigation of the family of the Justice Minister, Cho Kuk.

Cho Kuk, the new Justice Minister appointed by the Blue House, has had family members subject to formal investigation by the Central prosecutor's office for two months now. Massive street demonstrations by democratic party supporters against the prosecutors office are styled as both support for Cho Kuk, who has been appointed to carry out prosecution reforms, and support for the reforms themselves. Cho Kuk's daughter and mother have been accused of falsifying records and perhaps influence peddling to obtain academic credentials from prestigious institutions and are under investigation. It is somewhat ironic that the son of the LKP legislative floor leader, Na Kyung-won, is accused by the press of similar abuses. Cho Kuk's family members, including his wife, are also accused of engaging in suspicious financial activities which may be a cover for influence peddling. It appears that the focus of the central prosecutors investigation is, in fact, Cho Kuk, as the investigation spreads a broad net in search of evidence. Again, ironically, the Prosecutor General, has been accused in the press, of taking gifts and having conflicts of interest. He denies the accusations.

A more fundamental issue, involves the resistance of the conservative party to fast track of the legislative electoral reforms which would weaken their representation in the National Assembly. The number of proportional voting seats in the assembly of 300 representatives would increase from 47 to 75 giving greater representation to democratic or progressive parties. The estimated effect would be to reduce the number of LKP seats from 117 to 97. This is the crux of the matter really. Additionally, there is a strong regional basis to the right wing vote in South Korea that has been a barrier to reform for decades, used to preserve and protect the interests of chaebol families, corporate management, and legacy pro-Japanese interests. The legislative electoral reform could potentially weaken or temporarily eliminate this obstacle after the next election April 15.

Threats of physical resistance to the present administration are implicit in the last major right wing rally at Gwangwhamoon, on last week's Hangulnal holiday. These threats are in the nature of the type of violent resistance that is going on in Hong Kong presently. At the recent LKP organized Gwangwhamoon demonstrations, the religious and far right constituencies engage in overt adulation of the military dictatorships the right supported in the past, along with claims that the former president, Park Geun Hye, was unjustly impeached and convicted on false evidence of abuse of power contrived by the press. The threats were presented in two forms, first in confrontations with police near the Blue House security cordon, the seat of executive power, not far from Gwangwhamoon. The second is in equivocal language promising the fighting, and resistance, exemplified by Hong Kong street radicals who engage in physical combat with police. The threatening language in speeches given during the presence of leaders of the LKP, ‎Hwang Kyo-ahn and ‎Na Kyung-won, is ambivalent enough to provide "plausible deniability." It's no surprise that the LKP/far right demonstrations call for the impeachment of president Moon Jae-in, along with the resignation and arrest of the Justice Minister, Cho Kuk. The politics of desperation of the far right Liberty Korea Party are on display.

The demonstration this Saturday in Seocho dong, Seoul, by the pro-democratic supporters brought out some right wing counter demonstrators behind the police line, with their ubiquitous US flags sprinkled among the Taegukkis. A very large US flag was displayed out front which took a group of people to carry it. The question is why do opponents of democracy in South Korea invariably bring US flags to their demonstrations?

Sources:

한국당 소환불응 고수…'패스트트랙 충돌' 조사없이 재판 넘기나
송고시간 | 2019-10-13 09:30
https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20191013006900004?section=politics/national-assembly&site=major_news01

South Korean National Assembly Fast-tracks Reform Bills Amid Conservative Opposition
May 04, 2019 / Lavinia Ding
https://www.irinsider.org/east-asia-1/2019/5/4/south-korean-national-assembly-fast-tracks-reform-bills-amid-conservative-opposition

여야4당 내일 선거법개정안 발의…한국당 극렬 반발
입력 : 2019.04.23 18:19:53
https://www.mk.co.kr/news/politics/view/2019/04/253734/

[속보] 국회 정개특위서 ‘선거법 개정안’ 가결
등록 :2019-08-29 11:20
http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/politics/assembly/907622.html

Updates:

JTBC reported on its Live program (Oct. 13) tonight, that questioning of the relevant prosecutor by the committee responsible for the fast track process disclosed that the prosecutor's office was not certain of the scope of legislative immunity as applied to the disruptive conduct of Liberty Korea Party representatives in the assembly building last April, and that this may affect whether or not warrants for compulsory appearance before investigators was forthcoming.

Cho Kuk resigned today (Oct. 14).

The "peaceful" import of the Concert of Europe

The concert relied more or less on the subjugation of colonies or empire. The military impulse was extended abroad against those who were incapable of defense because they were in western terms less developed. So the competition and rivalries of the “great powers” were sublimated for extended periods in a concert of exploitation of overseas conquests. The great powers who found themselves at a disadvantage were destabilizing and at the turn of the century began attacking each other on their frontiers. Japan and Russia attacked each other in Asia. Germany at a disadvantage abroad in comparison to the French and English empires simply decided to attack its neighbors.

So imperialism laid the groundwork for the two world wars. Interestingly, Hannah Arendt posits Lawrence of Arabia as the prototypical superman model for Nazi Germany. There are today similar social archetypes or paradigms in the west such as 007, or the special forces warrior who follows in the footsteps of Lawrence in Syria or Afghanistan. The imperial god character appears in Graham Greene’s classic, the Quiet American and later in the movie Apocalypse now.

Japan modeled it’s early twentieth century imperialism on the British model in Egypt. It’s gunboat diplomacy in Asia was clearly based on US and English models. Eventually, these models of behavior resulted in direct military confrontations. The US and England made turn of the century agreements with Japan which postponed their clash until Pearl Harbor but victimized the rest of Asia. Today the CIA and SOC operate as a modern day East India Corporation carrying on a secret war which never really ended after WWII. The patterns are essentially the same. Putin dreams of something better but the old paradigm that war is the guarantor of the health of ruling elites just won’t go away without a fight. Unfortunately, the western elites have consistently designated Russia, China and lesser states as the enemy to sustain society organized on the principle of war.

Liar's Poker in Stockholm

When I saw this story on KBS 24 live on youtube, they said that the North Koreans complained that the US hadn’t changed its position. The report said the US representative Stephen Biegun wouldn’t talk to reporters because it wasn’t appropriate to reveal their reaction publicly. Reporters believed that Biegun went to the US embassy rather than stay at the facilities where the talks were being held. The plans of the NK delegation were not clear at the time. The speculation was that it was the old “one bundle” approach of the US v. the step by step approach. The immediate harsh North Korean undiplomatic statements at the scene, after the Stockholm meeting, appear similar to what Trump, Bolton and company did to the North at the summit in Hanoi.

I’m kind of surprised because the Washington Talk on VOA Korea by the two well connected experts they had on Saturday, seemed cautious but upbeat. Most genuine experts seem to know the structure of a deal that could work, I wonder if any were formulated beforehand or if Biegun’s team is just playing liar's poker. The dialogue imagined looks like this, “you have to come off the dime first;” “no you have to make the first offer;” “what did you bring to the table?” “what did you bring to the table?” “You have to define denuclearization and the end stage first;” “no, it’s step by step, with reciprocal trust building measures;” “no that isn’t how it works;” “Okay, bye, we see you haven’t changed a bit, why did you bother?”

Biegun clearly knows better from his presentation at Stanford that was used to sucker the North Koreans at Hanoi. To his credit at his last major policy presentation on North Korea, his views were even less promising and really offered no daylight for the North Koreans in terms of changing the US policy position. To be realistic Kim Jong Un's negotiating team isn't negotiating with Trump, it's negotiating with the entire US government and private establishment with vested interests in the so called San Francisco system that supports US national security in the "Indo- Pacific." These people aren't negotiating, they're in the regime change business. Domestically, Trump is so weak at this point it's unlikely he's capable of offering a negotiating process the North Korean's can accept, let alone make substantive concessions. This is what he found out after Singapore.

The Black Hole of South Korean Domestic Politics

There is a contrary view that the demonstration in Gwangwhamun was more extensive than I have previously described.* The promoters of the demonstration, specifically, the Liberty Korea Party, have claimed that there were 3 million demonstrators. The author watched news reports of every candlelight demonstration at Gwanghwamun that brought down the previous Park government. Rather than increase the estimate of the participants at the anti-Cho Guk, anti- democracy demonstration, it appears that an estimate in the hundreds of thousands would also be appropriate for the democratic pro-Cho Guk demonstration last Saturday.

While the turnout on Saturday in support of the judicial reforms and the Moon administration was substantially larger than the Liberty Party rally at Gwangwhamun, as a practical matter it doesn't matter, the political impact is equivalent. The Liberty Party turnout was massive. In light of other pressing matters, the pending negotiations with North Korea; the diplomatic and economic rift with Japan; the impact of repeated typhoons damaging the southern regions of South Korea; and the investigations of Justice Minister Cho Guk's family for suspected corruption, and the leaders of the Liberty Party Korea for illegally obstructing the constitutional functions of the legislative assembly; the domestic political polarization in South Korea represents a political crisis. Sohn Suk-hee, chief of the JTBC News Division correctly characterized the current domestic political confrontation in South Korea as a "black hole."

*For a description of the Liberty Party demonstration:

Impressions of the anti- Cho Guk demonstration

https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/10/initial-impressions-of-anti-cho-guk.html

For a description of the earlier pro- Cho Guk demonstation:

https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2019/09/protestors-gather-over-cho-kuk-scandal.html

Update: Oct. 5 Pro-Cho Guk, pro- prosecutorial reform demonstrations continue at Seocho Station in Seoul.

Impressions of the anti- Cho Guk demonstration

The demonstration took place on Kwanghwamoon plaza with a scheduled start of 4 pm local Seoul time. Prior to this it was kicked off by a "prayer day" rally sponsored by a Christian Conference group. There preachers spoke about President Moon Jae-in's socialism and the need to protect South Korea from the threat of pro-communist elements in the government. The conference claimed to be non-partisan. The key speaker called for the impeachment of Moon Jae-in and protested the injustice of the impeachment and imprisonment of former President Park Geun Hye. This is in contrast to an interdenominational conference of clerics which took place indoors about a week ago in support of justice reform initiatives of Moon's administration and the publication of a petition to that effect signed by 8000 clerics and monks of all denominations. The presence of American flags on the podium and in the crowd at the "non-partisan" prayer meeting also raises the traditional stereotype of foreign influences on protestant ministries dabbling in internal politics in Asia.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.3) Jeon Gwang Hoon, executive director of the United Christian Conference, calls for the impeachment of Moon Jae-In, "effective immediately." He also blasted "those expletive deleted illegally impeached Park Geun Hye and instigated the press" (against her). Minister Jeon was criticized for soliciting contributions for himself citing the biblical rewards in store for contributors, while proverbial "men in black" stood guard nearby.

Various claims were made about the size of the demonstration characterized as "people's resistance" and "people's revolution" against Moon Jae-in's democratic party government. Most of the sign's called for Cho Guk to be arrested or resign and for Moon Jae In to resign or be impeached. Estimates claimed by partisans ranged from one to three million persons. Judging from the extent and density of the crowd, it appeared more in the range of 200,000 to 300,000 people which is a surprisingly good turnout for the opposition parties. This was primarily a Liberty Korea Party affair, and their most prominent leaders were there to speak. JTBC news coverage reported that Korean police authorities no longer report on the estimated size of crowds in political demonstrations.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.3)

There were reports of violence at the demonstration. 46 persons were reported arrested for either violence or interfering with official police duties. Most of the people were arrested as they approached the Blue House perimeter, a security zone. As police attempted to ward off demonstrators, it was reported that some armed themselves with wooden clubs of some type and brandished them as weapons against police. Apparently, there is no video of this confrontation. Also a JTBC female reporter was allegedly sexually assaulted by two demonstrators according to their news report. Demonstrators also allegedly attacked one vehicle.

As a whole attempting to characterize the demonstration as a "people's revolution" seems to be patent dissembling. The Liberty Korea Party represents conservative corporate and vested money interests and Christian denomination followers in South Korea. The party is also characterized by limited regional support. The presence of American flags throughout the demonstration as a whole is something of a tell. How beneficial is it for the US to be associated with the calls for the resignation or impeachment of Moon Jae In? The ubiquitous US flag presence implies that the outside power backs our goals.

(Source- JTBC News, 10.3)

In any case the Taegukki People's Revolution Movement, a reactionary far right organization, appeared to be present at the demonstration in force, carrying US flags as well as Korean flags. Their banner (above) featured the former ruthless dictators Syngman Rhee and Park Chung Hee. It's clear where they're coming from. The presentation of potential violence against the police protecting the Blue House is an obvious threat to the administration, and smacks of the violent provocations in Hong Kong. In fact, a recent tweet, by the untethered Joshua Wong, drew a poorly formulated and unwitting link between the 5.18 massacre in Kwangju and what is going on today in Hong Kong. But back in 1980, the US backed the Chun Du Won dictatorship just as it backed the previous South Korean dictatorships. Hundreds of civilians were killed. There were no consequences for the martial law regime. The forced analogy with the South Korean democratic uprising in Kwangju suggests someone wrote Mr. Wong's media script for him. South Korean right wingers to this day claim the victims of martial law brutality and murder were communists. Today, the Liberty Korea Party, carrying American flags, calls the Korean Democratic Party communists.

North Korean missile launch in context

The US launched a Minuteman III ICBM 4000 miles into the Pacific from Vandenburg the same day.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1977228/afgsc-tests-minuteman-iii-missile-with-launch-from-vandenberg-afb/

We also had Moon Jae In's speech yesterday for Armed Forces Day extolling South Korean military strength, accompanied by flights of its newly acquired F-35s. Japan took the opportunity to formally complain and reassert its bogus territorial claim to Dokdo which was overflown by one of the South Korean fighters covered live on South Korean television.

Another observer pointed out that the Russians test launched an ICBM on Sep. 30. Yesterday, China displayed it's new ICBMs at a military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the PRC.

The new US defense secretary has been promoting the deployment of US IRBMs in the far east now that the US is no longer constrained by the treaty with Russia on that category of weapons.

So the test launch of a SLBM today near Wonsan North Korea takes place in this international context as well as the context of UN sanctions and US-DPRK negotiations.

addendum: I omitted this report of multiple US SLBM unarmed test launches in early September. This is another context which is really quite significant if one understands the nature of the new "low yield" warheads intended for use on these missiles:

In this most recent series of Trident II test launches, Nebraska fired two missiles on Sept. 4, 2019, and another two on Sept. 6, 2019. The submarine fired all of the weapons from an unspecified location off the coast of Southern California. Based on U.S. government warning notices to aircraft and ships, it appeared that the missiles may have come down in the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii and/or near Guam. To date, there have been 176 total test launches of the Trident II, also known as the Trident D5.

*

And:

The Navy was also supposed to reach initial operational capability with the W76-2 warhead, which is redesigned to produce a lower-yield, by the end of this year. NNSA says it produced the first of these in January 2019. This is a particularly controversial development, which advocates say is necessary to provide the United States with a more flexible nuclear weapon to respond to more limited contingencies.

* U.S. Ballistic Missile Sub Fired An Impressive Four Trident II Missiles In Just Three Days, Joseph Trevithink, Sep. 7, 2019;
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29714/u-s-ballistic-missile-sub-fired-an-impressive-four-trident-ii-missiles-in-just-three-days