It was said that Russians respect an intelligent woman. It's likely Lavrov and Choe Son Hui will get along. Both are fond of slashing opponents rhetorically. Putin too, is very sharp intellectually. There was an awkward moment early on, where Putin went through the welcoming formalities and congratulated Kim on his recent "election" to his position as leader of the Korean people by the Supreme People's Assembly. Kim was very tense at least early on during the summit. There was a lot of commentary about his ill fitting Mao style suit. Kim Yo Jong, Kim's ubiquitous sister, was noted to be missing from the public appearances. Some of the Channel A analysts suspect that the stress of recent events may be affecting Kim Jong Un's health. He was short of breath, nervously licking his lips, and very mechanical reading his speech. There was more than one report that the agenda was cut short, and that Kim left before a final dinner that had been previously scheduled. It may be that Putin had to get going to the Belt and Road forum.
The major import of the summit seems to be having Kim recover momentum after the debacle at the Hanoi summit with the US. Everyone noticed that Kim Yong Chol wasn't with the North Korean delegation in Vladivostok. It looks like Choe Son Hui has been elevated to a primary position as nuclear negotiator. This would be in her new position as First Vice Minister of Foreign Policy, and as the new and solitary female member of the powerful State Affairs Committee.
On Putin's side, he warmed up to his mission after a slightly rocky start. He may not be able to do much more in material terms to help Kim out in the current maximum pressure situation with all the sanctions choking the North Korean economy. Russia is a major supplier of fuel to North Korea. Recently, VOA reported that Russian refined fuel exports when considered with substantially smaller Chinese exports were 19 percent in excess of the annual quota pro-rated, so far this year. Putin could support humanitarian aid efforts unilaterally, and also in the UN Security Council. He can also block any additional sanctions by the UN but that role is already recognized. In terms of diplomacy, Putin weighs in on the side of the "step by step" approach to the denuclearization negotiations in contra-distinction to the US "all or nothing" approach. The latter is also referred to as the "big deal," with all sanctions relief reserved until the end of complete denuclearization by North Korea.
Thae Yong Ho criticized Putin's approach which emphasized peace on the peninsula and security guarantees for the Kim regime. Putin also alluded to the prospect of multiparty efforts perhaps along the lines of the previous six party talks to realize those security guarantees. Thae emphasized that Putin didn't focus on denuclearization but only what the US should do. He also stated that a step by step approach with reciprocal sanctions relief would compromise the effort to completely denuclearize North Korea. This has consistently been his position all along, and it seems oddly unrealistic, and coincident with the position of the US and its military allies, as opposed to that of South Korea itself. One would definitely have to place Thae solidly on the right wing opposition side in terms of South Korean domestic politics.
The main positive contribution of Thae Yong Ho's analysis was his commentary on the elevation of Choe Son Hui to the inner circle of elite power holders in North Korea. Thae mentioned three women as significant aides to Kim Il Sung during the early days of communist rule in North Korea. Most significant of these was Shin Jin Soon, a graduate of the elite Kyongseong International University, who was said to speak seven languages, and play a major role in North Korean international relations, particularly with Russia, as early as 1945. Her relationship with Kim Il Sung went back to the struggle against the Japanese Empire. Russia was referred to as brother in the struggle against Imperial Japan in Kim Jong Un's Vladivostok speech, a historical bond that tied the two countries together.
The elevation of Choe Son Hui to the elite power level in North Korea is a product of her outstanding academic achievement at elite academic institutions, the failure of the Hanoi summit to which Kim Yong Chol's decline is attributed, and the model provided by Kim Il Sung's promotion of elite women to facilitate foreign policy goals. Shin Jin Soon, historically was described as the "wind pipe" with Russia. Kim Jong Un was said to be going to Vladivostok for an "oxygen supply." Ostensibly, the presence of an influential and worldly woman with the Kim delegation, presents a softer image of the dictatorship, in a world where many countries are devoid of women in positions of power.
It might be worthwhile to consider the important role played by Choe in comparison to the other women around Kim as his personal support group. Kim is in an isolated position and younger and less experienced than most of the international figures he meets, for example, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin. Thae notes the same has held true inside Kim's own ruling party, where older generation officials have dominated and the much younger heir to power has been engaged in a protracted effort to remove or replace them. Thae characterized the current North Korean leadership circles in term of an older generation typically in their sixties, that is, around thirty years older than Kim. Choe is a little younger than this at age 54, it is believed, and serves as an experienced bridge domestically and internationally as an adviser. The other women in Kim's life: wife, Ri Sol Ju; sister, Kim Yo Jong; and confidante, Hyon Song Wol, are like Kim himself substantially younger. Kim Yo Jong seems to be a highly visible pragmatic assistant when it comes to logistics, protocol, and propaganda. She was noticeably absent in Vladivostok. Choe, more so than the younger women, now has not only the role of a maternal mentor for a relatively young Kim, but the experience to provide the intellectual support and advice in a most challenging if not desperate international situation.
No comments:
Post a Comment