(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 02.27) Chinese Destroyer, staking out the Korea Strait? Why did the Chinese "Aegis" destroyer leave the West Sea and proceed into the Korea Straits?
Channel A News Top Ten on February 27 reported increased Chinese naval activity in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) region. An earlier program had reported the presence of a Chinese reconnaissance aircraft proceeding through the Korean air defense identification zone at various points on February 23. The Chinese Y-9 aircraft proceeded through the Korean Strait and into the East Sea on a northward track passing between the Korean islands of Uleungdo and Dokto and then turned southward to return to China. No prior notice of passage through the South Korean ADIZ was given by the Chinese. The unannounced reconnaissance flights from China tend to take place on a monthly basis.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 02.27) China's provocative flight. Graphic shows April 23 flight route of Chinese Y-9 aircraft through the South Korean ADIZ, the Korea Strait and northward passing between the Korean islands of Uleungdo and Dokdo.
Today's program noted this event, and then proceeded to report and comment on PLA Navy surface combatants entering the Korea Strait later the same day. Unlike the reconnaissance aircraft's track, the timing and the route of the ships wasn't entirely clear from the description given. Sin In Kyun reported that there were three ships involved in the passage, one Luyang III Class DDG and two Jiangkai II class frigates. The overall impression given was that the operations of these Chinese warships in the East Sea/ Sea of Japan were somewhat unprecedented and possibly an indication of a new operational pattern for the PLA Navy. According to Shin In Kyun on his Defense Daily program, Dong A Ilbo and Japanese Fuji TV reported that the three Chinese surface combatants were already in a position south of Dokto in the East Sea on 23 February. Further Shin reported that according to the Japanese TV broadcast, the three Chinese warships had been operating in that area since February 16 when they were observed entering the Korea Strait on a northward course. The Top Ten program speculated whether the Y-9 patrol was in fact a coordinated exercise with the surface combatants. According to Shin, this information was published on February 25. None of the Chinese surface ship movements were considered to have violated international law.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 02.27) Regarded as China's "Aegis" destroyer, Luyang III Class DDG: Displacement 7200 tons; speed 56 km/h; HHQ9 anti-air missile (200km); YG18A supersonic antiship missile; range: high altitude mode 540 km, low altitude mode 220 km; terminal velocity Mach 2-4; S band phased array radar, detection range over 450 km; CJ-10 ship to land cruise missile, (1500 km).
Possible motivations of the mission through the Korean Straits were discussed. Among those were (1) respond to US freedom of navigation missions in the Taiwan straits and elsewhere; (2) Provoke uneasiness among the three allies Japan-US-South Korea: and (3) project regular Chinese naval presence with surface combatants in a new operational area. Flights near Dokto are an unpleasant reminder to Seoul of the dispute with Japan over its claim to the island. China apparently is invited to next October's Japanese International Naval Review while South Korea had not yet been invited. As the weakest naval power among the three allies, South Korea is uncomfortable with China's failure to respect its ADIZ and the widening of its surface warfare operational zone around the peninsula.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 02.27) Chinese Jiangkai II class frigate - China's most capable 4000 ton frigate: Speed 30 knots; 382 type 3D radar (360 km detection range), 100 target tracks simultaneous capability; HQ-16 anti-air missile (50 km range); Yu-8 long range torpedoes.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Women VIPs on Kim's Private Train
(Source-JTBC News 2.26) Hyon Song Wol observed at Ping Tian station near the Chinese border with North Korea, about 2:00 am February 26.
Hyon Song Wol is currently the lead singer of the Moranbong Band and leader of the Samjiyon Orchestra. She is a member of the party's standing committee. She led talks concerning cultural exchanges and performances of the North Korean musical groups in connection with the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in South Korea in early 2018. Hyon is said to be Kim Jong Un's former girlfriend. (In August 2013, US media reported based upon a story in the South Korean Chosun Ilbo, that Hyon Song Wol was executed by machine gun fire in front of other members of the North Korean arts group.) Kim's wife Ri Sol Ju apparently did not accompanying the delegation to Hanoi and has not been observed with the delegation thus far.
When the train stopped for about a half an hour this morning at approximately 2am local time, at the Ping Tian railway station in China, Kim was observed smoking a cigarette with his sister Kim Yo Jong holding an ashtray for him. Hyon Song Wol was also seen on the platform waiting. When the train later in the morning arrived at the Dong Dang station in North Vietnam, Kim Jong Un left the train and got into his bullet proof Mercedes limo, which apparently had been brought to the station from Hanoi by his security team. There was a modest honor guard and red carpet at the station and Kim greeted the local dignitaries briefly while getting directly into his car.
In some interesting JTBC video, Kim Yo Jong, Kim's sister was observed getting out of the train first at Dong Dang station to check the reception arrangements. She had some difficulty negotiating the ramp in high heels and then returned inside the train after viewing the receiving line. Later after Kim made his state entrance, followed by other DPRK dignitaries including vice chairman Kim Yong Chol, Kim Yo Jong again got out of train and pushed aside Kim Yong Chol to again get in front of the delegation and reconnoiter conditions on the street. It looked like she got into the Mercedes limo with Kim to make the 170 km trip to Hanoi.
(Source- JTBC News 2.26) Kim Yo Jong on the receiving line at Dong Dang Station, Vietnam, brushing by Kim Yong Chol, Kim Jong Un in the foreground.
JTBC has reported that after arrival at Dong Dang, Vietnam station, in Lang Son, the train returned to Ping Tian China for security and logistical purposes. The total distance to Pyongyang from Ping Tian is said to be 4500 km. The Chinese government is estimated to have mobilized as many as 90,000 police and military personnel to safeguard the security of the route within China. The movements of the Kim official train are believed to have caused major inconveniences to ordinary Chinese travelers and commuters and are estimated to reflect a high degree of Chinese commitment to the security of the North Korean state. The train itself was being pulled by a Chinese locomotive. Security at Lang Son will also be tight until March 2 according to local reports.
Friday, February 22, 2019
More Speculation on Kim's Transportation to Hanoi
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 02.22) (1) Take Goshawk One (IL-62) direct to Hanoi; (2) Take the special train from Pyongyang to Beijing, to Guangzhou, to Lang Son; (60 hours) ; (3) Take Goshawk One to Guangzhou, China, then take the train to Lang Son, in northern Vietnam.
According to today's Channel A News Top Ten program (in their number one story) there were already signs of increased security measures being taken in the Chinese city of Dandong on the border of North Korea near the Sinuiju bridge rail crossing. It is not confirmed that Kim will take his personal train across the border although the train itself may go. Kim could fly to either Guangzhou or Hanoi directly. He could rendezvous with the train in Guangzhou, China or Langson, Vietnam, on the way back home after touring economic and tourist sites in North Vietnam and/or southern China.
Analysts think Kim would like to meet with Xi Jinping on the way back home. His arrival by train at Beijing for such a meeting is estimated to be desirable for propaganda purposes. Stops in areas noted for economic development are also intended to send a message to domestic and international audiences. The confusion about his transportation schedule, means and routes is a security measure. Final legs and touring destinations could be made with Kim's armor plated cars. He could fly but it was felt the train might assist in the ground logistics. According to another recent South Korean broadcast Kim reportedly would have one hundred plus security personnel accompanying his official delegation.
According to today's Channel A News Top Ten program (in their number one story) there were already signs of increased security measures being taken in the Chinese city of Dandong on the border of North Korea near the Sinuiju bridge rail crossing. It is not confirmed that Kim will take his personal train across the border although the train itself may go. Kim could fly to either Guangzhou or Hanoi directly. He could rendezvous with the train in Guangzhou, China or Langson, Vietnam, on the way back home after touring economic and tourist sites in North Vietnam and/or southern China.
Analysts think Kim would like to meet with Xi Jinping on the way back home. His arrival by train at Beijing for such a meeting is estimated to be desirable for propaganda purposes. Stops in areas noted for economic development are also intended to send a message to domestic and international audiences. The confusion about his transportation schedule, means and routes is a security measure. Final legs and touring destinations could be made with Kim's armor plated cars. He could fly but it was felt the train might assist in the ground logistics. According to another recent South Korean broadcast Kim reportedly would have one hundred plus security personnel accompanying his official delegation.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Will Kim take his personal train to Hanoi?
(Source- JTBC News 02.18) North Korea Train No. 1. transit time one way 50 hours. Kim Jong Un's train projected routes.
Kim might take the train to Vietnam, imitating Kim Il Sung's ride in 1958. This fits in with the weird monarchical, underlying Confucian themes permeating North Korea's carefully controlled society. Needless to say, that photo op would fit in with domestic propaganda needs. He could also take his personal aircraft, a dated IL-62, to Vietnam and return by train. JTBC reported he probably has some travel stops he wants to make in Vietnam and southern China that his train ride could accommodate on the way home. The broachcast specifically mentioned Guangzhou, (formerly Canton) China, said to be an economically well developed city he would like to visit. He would probably want to talk with Xi or other Chinese officials while on the trip as well. They say his personal aircraft could make it to Vietnam non-stop.
It seems like it might be a major inconvenience for the Chinese high speed rail system to run an old train like Kim's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China#/media/File:Rail_map_of_PRC.svg
The JTBC Beijing correspondent said a rail trip would take 50 hours plus, whether he took the most direct route from Beijing to Langson (blue), or the Tienjin line, in dotted green.
Kim might take the train to Vietnam, imitating Kim Il Sung's ride in 1958. This fits in with the weird monarchical, underlying Confucian themes permeating North Korea's carefully controlled society. Needless to say, that photo op would fit in with domestic propaganda needs. He could also take his personal aircraft, a dated IL-62, to Vietnam and return by train. JTBC reported he probably has some travel stops he wants to make in Vietnam and southern China that his train ride could accommodate on the way home. The broachcast specifically mentioned Guangzhou, (formerly Canton) China, said to be an economically well developed city he would like to visit. He would probably want to talk with Xi or other Chinese officials while on the trip as well. They say his personal aircraft could make it to Vietnam non-stop.
It seems like it might be a major inconvenience for the Chinese high speed rail system to run an old train like Kim's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China#/media/File:Rail_map_of_PRC.svg
The JTBC Beijing correspondent said a rail trip would take 50 hours plus, whether he took the most direct route from Beijing to Langson (blue), or the Tienjin line, in dotted green.
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Military Exercises in Far East
(Source- Shin In Kyun Defense Daily 02.17)
Sin In Kyun, South Korean defense analyst, reporting on his own youtube program Defense Daily, said that the US and Japan were conducting an anti-submarine warfare exercise in the western Pacific in a maritime region off the coast of Shikoku island. The exercises include, according to Shin, the Japanese helicopter carrier Ise, and four unspecified surface warships, and, allegedly five submarines, from the Japanese self defense force. Japanese P-1, and P-3c maritime patrol aircraft will also take part. The exercise is underway and scheduled for the period February 13 to February 22. Shin also said a US Los Angeles class submarine would play the role of enemy for exercises purposes. This is an exercise conducted on a regular basis, said to be twice a year.
The interesting thing about the report is that Russian military aircraft were observed flying in the Japanese theater while the exercise was taking place on the 15th* (see update below). The chart above shows some of the reported tracks of these aircraft which apparently came from the Vladivostok region. These included two sections of Tu-95 aircraft and two sections of Su-35 fighters. Two Tu-95s came down the eastern side of Japan and took a look in the Shikoku area while the naval exercise was taking place. Shin said these were bomber aircraft, but you can't help but wonder if reconnaissance aircraft wouldn't have been of better service. Shin referred to the Russian mission as a "provocation" characteristic of hot headed Russia. It appears that the Su-35s served as escorts to a point for the Tu-95 flights.
(Source- Shin In Kyun Defense Daily 02.17)
On the program the day before, Shin reported an allied air exercise was scheduled to take place in Guam, from February 20, to March 8. Japanese self defense force aircraft would deploy to Anderson AFB to participate in combined air exercises with US and Australian aircraft. Japanese aircraft will include 14 combat aircraft, two early warning aircraft, a refueling aircraft and 4 transport aircraft. 450 Japanese personnel would deploy for the exercise. Training planned includes air defense suppression, air to air defense, air to ground attack missions, electronic warfare, SAR rescue combat air patrol, and also support for humanitarian relief missions. Australia would provide an unspecified number of FA-18f, and EA-18g aircraft. Shin also said US B-52h aircraft would participate in the exercise, and that they would be escorted by allied aircraft.
Sin referred to anonymous Japanese sources in his reporting and also the Japanese press. He suggested that the US was ready if North Korea wasn't forthcoming enough in the summit talks and that South Korea's absence from these exercises was something of a lapse or dereliction as he strongly disapproves of the Moon administration and its defense policies. Fairly often he gets his flight information from the twitter account of aircraftspots.
(Source- Shin In Kyun Defense Daily 02.16) Expeditionary Combat Exercise- Who is being targeted? Some of Shin's characteristic editorial commentary.
*Update 2.18 Channel A Top Ten News carried the story of the Japanese naval exercise and the Russian air movements this morning as a number 8 item. Shin had reported that the Russian military aircraft operations in the Japanese region were reported in the Japanese press on February 16. The Top Ten report says that the Russian aircraft were detected in the region on February 15. Shin who appeared on the Top Ten program estimated the Bear track into the western Pacific as taking 15 hours round trip.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 2.18) Channel A News Top Ten graphic shows the respective locations of Tu-95 and Su-35 Far Eastern airbases at Ukrainka and Uglovaya respectively. The lower captions say Russian strategic bomber movement; large scale armed force display in Japanese archipelago.
Sin In Kyun, South Korean defense analyst, reporting on his own youtube program Defense Daily, said that the US and Japan were conducting an anti-submarine warfare exercise in the western Pacific in a maritime region off the coast of Shikoku island. The exercises include, according to Shin, the Japanese helicopter carrier Ise, and four unspecified surface warships, and, allegedly five submarines, from the Japanese self defense force. Japanese P-1, and P-3c maritime patrol aircraft will also take part. The exercise is underway and scheduled for the period February 13 to February 22. Shin also said a US Los Angeles class submarine would play the role of enemy for exercises purposes. This is an exercise conducted on a regular basis, said to be twice a year.
The interesting thing about the report is that Russian military aircraft were observed flying in the Japanese theater while the exercise was taking place on the 15th* (see update below). The chart above shows some of the reported tracks of these aircraft which apparently came from the Vladivostok region. These included two sections of Tu-95 aircraft and two sections of Su-35 fighters. Two Tu-95s came down the eastern side of Japan and took a look in the Shikoku area while the naval exercise was taking place. Shin said these were bomber aircraft, but you can't help but wonder if reconnaissance aircraft wouldn't have been of better service. Shin referred to the Russian mission as a "provocation" characteristic of hot headed Russia. It appears that the Su-35s served as escorts to a point for the Tu-95 flights.
(Source- Shin In Kyun Defense Daily 02.17)
On the program the day before, Shin reported an allied air exercise was scheduled to take place in Guam, from February 20, to March 8. Japanese self defense force aircraft would deploy to Anderson AFB to participate in combined air exercises with US and Australian aircraft. Japanese aircraft will include 14 combat aircraft, two early warning aircraft, a refueling aircraft and 4 transport aircraft. 450 Japanese personnel would deploy for the exercise. Training planned includes air defense suppression, air to air defense, air to ground attack missions, electronic warfare, SAR rescue combat air patrol, and also support for humanitarian relief missions. Australia would provide an unspecified number of FA-18f, and EA-18g aircraft. Shin also said US B-52h aircraft would participate in the exercise, and that they would be escorted by allied aircraft.
Sin referred to anonymous Japanese sources in his reporting and also the Japanese press. He suggested that the US was ready if North Korea wasn't forthcoming enough in the summit talks and that South Korea's absence from these exercises was something of a lapse or dereliction as he strongly disapproves of the Moon administration and its defense policies. Fairly often he gets his flight information from the twitter account of aircraftspots.
(Source- Shin In Kyun Defense Daily 02.16) Expeditionary Combat Exercise- Who is being targeted? Some of Shin's characteristic editorial commentary.
*Update 2.18 Channel A Top Ten News carried the story of the Japanese naval exercise and the Russian air movements this morning as a number 8 item. Shin had reported that the Russian military aircraft operations in the Japanese region were reported in the Japanese press on February 16. The Top Ten report says that the Russian aircraft were detected in the region on February 15. Shin who appeared on the Top Ten program estimated the Bear track into the western Pacific as taking 15 hours round trip.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 2.18) Channel A News Top Ten graphic shows the respective locations of Tu-95 and Su-35 Far Eastern airbases at Ukrainka and Uglovaya respectively. The lower captions say Russian strategic bomber movement; large scale armed force display in Japanese archipelago.
Friday, February 15, 2019
Interim US Negotiating Strategy Identified as "CVC"
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 2.15) Title: US "If North Korea wants us to trust its pledge to denuclearize give proof." Third way of denuclearization appears- CVC a locking device for North Korean nuclear development. CVC (comprehensive verifiable caps) Character: an interim process toward FFVD; finish point: end of 2020; Scope: existing nuclear weapons excluded (a cap); Approach: in stages nuclear reporting with verification authorized. FFVD (final, full, verified denuclearization): Character: the final goal of denuclearization; finish point: indefinite; scope: all nuclear resources and weapons systems in the nuclear weapons program; Approach: comprehensive reporting and inspection verification.
In an article this morning. the DongA Ilbo newspaper, (English version), revealed an interview this week with Tony Dalton from the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Dalton described an interim negotiating strategy of achieving "comprehensive verifiable caps" or CVC on North Korea's nuclear arsenal. The title of the article from the conservatively oriented newspaper is somewhat misleading: "Advisors to Biegun call for middle phase before denuclearization." What they mean is before complete denuclearization. The copyrighted article is recommended for an explanation of what CVC is.
http://english.donga.com/List/3/01/26/1639444/1
Apparently experts from the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and also from Stanford have been advising Biegun. Naturally, the neocons and political opposition in DC are apprehensive about possible progress in the negotiations with North Korea. The Josh Rogin article in the Washington Post also referenced in the Channel A News Top Ten program today, was critical of the role of South Korea's Moon Jae In, and disparaged his desire to reopen Kumgansan resort and the Kaesong joint industrial area. He also mentioned South Korea's desire to reestablish rail links with North Korea. Such desires for sanctions waivers weaken the US negotiating position according to the pro-Japanese neocon author. The author suggests that Biegun instead of reigning in and controlling South Korean policy has moved closer to the South Korean administration's view of a successful approach to negotiating with North Korea. So he quotes from such well informed persons on Asian issues as Ted Cruz and Robert Menendez, in their letter to the Secretary of State. In an ironic twist, Rogin bemoans:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/congress-sends-a-warning-shot-to-moon-and-trump-on-north-korea/2019/02/14/8d738a6c-3097-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html?utm_term=.74d6c6313ebc
Biegun may turn out to be a better negotiator for taking the advice of the Carnegie Endowment experts and that of the Stanford experts as well, who are among the best the US establishment has concerning the North Korean nuclear issues.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 2.15) Edwin Feuler (Heritage Foundation) : In the case where North Korea takes meaningful and sufficient denuclearization measures, reopening the Kumgangsan tourist site may be possible.
In a related report, Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the impact of returning overseas workers on North Korea economics and politics. According to UN sanctions, North Koreans working abroad must be returned to their own country before the end of the year. Individual states must report their compliance with this sanction. This is one of the methods DPRK uses to obtain foreign exchange to support its economy laboring under multiple other sanctions restrictions. This is referred to as one of the whips the US has to pressure Kim Jong Un to make substantial nuclear concessions in the negotiations. On the other hand, a source reportedly close to Biegun, Edwin Feuler, of the Heritage Foundation, also alluded to possibility of reopening Kumgangsan resort in North Korea, financed and patronized by South Koreans, in terms of sanctions waivers, as an incentive, if the North shows good faith and makes substantial nuclear concessions. The reopening of Kaesong, the joint North South industrial zone in North Korea is regarded as a bridge too far at this point.
In an article this morning. the DongA Ilbo newspaper, (English version), revealed an interview this week with Tony Dalton from the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Dalton described an interim negotiating strategy of achieving "comprehensive verifiable caps" or CVC on North Korea's nuclear arsenal. The title of the article from the conservatively oriented newspaper is somewhat misleading: "Advisors to Biegun call for middle phase before denuclearization." What they mean is before complete denuclearization. The copyrighted article is recommended for an explanation of what CVC is.
http://english.donga.com/List/3/01/26/1639444/1
Apparently experts from the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and also from Stanford have been advising Biegun. Naturally, the neocons and political opposition in DC are apprehensive about possible progress in the negotiations with North Korea. The Josh Rogin article in the Washington Post also referenced in the Channel A News Top Ten program today, was critical of the role of South Korea's Moon Jae In, and disparaged his desire to reopen Kumgansan resort and the Kaesong joint industrial area. He also mentioned South Korea's desire to reestablish rail links with North Korea. Such desires for sanctions waivers weaken the US negotiating position according to the pro-Japanese neocon author. The author suggests that Biegun instead of reigning in and controlling South Korean policy has moved closer to the South Korean administration's view of a successful approach to negotiating with North Korea. So he quotes from such well informed persons on Asian issues as Ted Cruz and Robert Menendez, in their letter to the Secretary of State. In an ironic twist, Rogin bemoans:
The State Department has been working on better coordination with Seoul, establishing a working group under special envoy Stephen Biegun, the lead U.S. negotiator. But recent reports suggest the United States is moving closer to Moon’s position, not the other way around.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/congress-sends-a-warning-shot-to-moon-and-trump-on-north-korea/2019/02/14/8d738a6c-3097-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html?utm_term=.74d6c6313ebc
Biegun may turn out to be a better negotiator for taking the advice of the Carnegie Endowment experts and that of the Stanford experts as well, who are among the best the US establishment has concerning the North Korean nuclear issues.
(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 2.15) Edwin Feuler (Heritage Foundation) : In the case where North Korea takes meaningful and sufficient denuclearization measures, reopening the Kumgangsan tourist site may be possible.
In a related report, Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the impact of returning overseas workers on North Korea economics and politics. According to UN sanctions, North Koreans working abroad must be returned to their own country before the end of the year. Individual states must report their compliance with this sanction. This is one of the methods DPRK uses to obtain foreign exchange to support its economy laboring under multiple other sanctions restrictions. This is referred to as one of the whips the US has to pressure Kim Jong Un to make substantial nuclear concessions in the negotiations. On the other hand, a source reportedly close to Biegun, Edwin Feuler, of the Heritage Foundation, also alluded to possibility of reopening Kumgangsan resort in North Korea, financed and patronized by South Koreans, in terms of sanctions waivers, as an incentive, if the North shows good faith and makes substantial nuclear concessions. The reopening of Kaesong, the joint North South industrial zone in North Korea is regarded as a bridge too far at this point.
Friday, February 8, 2019
US Envoy Stephen Biegun Returns to South Korea from Pyongyang Talks
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) Beigun is back from Pyongyang. Attention is on the results of the meeting. South Korea will be briefed first tomorrow. What are the points of agreement for the second summit? Reciprocal US measures? Suggested are partial easing of sanctions, specifically some easing on the quota for fuel sanctions and granting a sanctions waiver for reopening Gumgangsan resort and Kaseong industrial zone, joint Korean projects.
Stephen Biegun, US special representative for negotiations with North Korea, returned from his three day two night stay in Pyongyang for working level talks in preparation for the late February US-DPRK summit in Vietnam. After getting back to Osan, he hasn't made any official statements. Tomorrow he meets with his counterpart on the South Korean negotiating team, Lee Do Oon, to discuss what developments occurred at the meeting.
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) Kim Jong Un stopover in Hanoi possible. Projected period for Kim to visit Vietnam. Will there be an official state visit by Kim during the 24-25 period? Trump arrives on the 26th. Talks are projected for the 27th and 28th.
JTBC published a schedule they believe Kim Jong Un will follow bringing him to Hanoi for an official state visit, on Feb 24. JTBC wasn't predicting any surprises in the negotiations with the typical items routinely discussed in the news on the table. An end to the war declaration isn't considered likely by South Korean analysts at this point. Biegun's recent Stanford presentation had raised expectations until now, but the likelihood of such a development seems premature, especially without multilateral coordination.
Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the possibility of an end of war declaration in their program today. Top Ten analysts also suggested the US asked for a comprehensive list of ICBM and nuclear weapons specialists. They reasoned these people were a proliferation risk if they find themselves out of work similar to scientists in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and wondered if they would be requested to to leave the country. A likely possibility is that US and IAEA experts would want to have access to these technical experts to make inspection and verification procedures meaningful. Perhaps this subject came up between Biegun and Stanford experts on North Korea, while he was there recently to make his presentation on the North Korean nuclear issues.
The usual issues that come up for US reciprocal measures are easing of sanctions, particularly in respect to Gumgangsan resort and the Kaseong joint industrial area, joint projects of North and South Korea, previously closed, and the possiblity of a US liaison office in North Korea. It is considered likely that North Korea would like some sanctions relief with respect to fuel imports and coal exports.
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) North Korean denuclearization measures (estimated by JTBC to be on the table) are a nuclear freeze; dismantling of Yongpyun nuclear facilities "plus Alfa;" and a pledge to give up their ICBMs.
It is believed the US delegation is seeking a complete verifiable freeze of nuclear weapons production, fissile material production, and ICBM production. This entails elimination of nuclear facilities at Yongbyun plus elimination of any other fissile material production or uranium enrichment facilities (plus Alfa). This would require identification of enrichment output history and facilities. According to JTBC a pledge to give up ICBM's is being requested. Performance of the latter would probably require a major reciprocal concession from the US.
Update- according to Channel News Asia, Trump announced on twitter that Hanoi would be the site for the summit. So the remarks about Danang as a possible venue have been edited out.
Stephen Biegun, US special representative for negotiations with North Korea, returned from his three day two night stay in Pyongyang for working level talks in preparation for the late February US-DPRK summit in Vietnam. After getting back to Osan, he hasn't made any official statements. Tomorrow he meets with his counterpart on the South Korean negotiating team, Lee Do Oon, to discuss what developments occurred at the meeting.
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) Kim Jong Un stopover in Hanoi possible. Projected period for Kim to visit Vietnam. Will there be an official state visit by Kim during the 24-25 period? Trump arrives on the 26th. Talks are projected for the 27th and 28th.
JTBC published a schedule they believe Kim Jong Un will follow bringing him to Hanoi for an official state visit, on Feb 24. JTBC wasn't predicting any surprises in the negotiations with the typical items routinely discussed in the news on the table. An end to the war declaration isn't considered likely by South Korean analysts at this point. Biegun's recent Stanford presentation had raised expectations until now, but the likelihood of such a development seems premature, especially without multilateral coordination.
Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the possibility of an end of war declaration in their program today. Top Ten analysts also suggested the US asked for a comprehensive list of ICBM and nuclear weapons specialists. They reasoned these people were a proliferation risk if they find themselves out of work similar to scientists in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and wondered if they would be requested to to leave the country. A likely possibility is that US and IAEA experts would want to have access to these technical experts to make inspection and verification procedures meaningful. Perhaps this subject came up between Biegun and Stanford experts on North Korea, while he was there recently to make his presentation on the North Korean nuclear issues.
The usual issues that come up for US reciprocal measures are easing of sanctions, particularly in respect to Gumgangsan resort and the Kaseong joint industrial area, joint projects of North and South Korea, previously closed, and the possiblity of a US liaison office in North Korea. It is considered likely that North Korea would like some sanctions relief with respect to fuel imports and coal exports.
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) North Korean denuclearization measures (estimated by JTBC to be on the table) are a nuclear freeze; dismantling of Yongpyun nuclear facilities "plus Alfa;" and a pledge to give up their ICBMs.
It is believed the US delegation is seeking a complete verifiable freeze of nuclear weapons production, fissile material production, and ICBM production. This entails elimination of nuclear facilities at Yongbyun plus elimination of any other fissile material production or uranium enrichment facilities (plus Alfa). This would require identification of enrichment output history and facilities. According to JTBC a pledge to give up ICBM's is being requested. Performance of the latter would probably require a major reciprocal concession from the US.
Update- according to Channel News Asia, Trump announced on twitter that Hanoi would be the site for the summit. So the remarks about Danang as a possible venue have been edited out.
Sunday, February 3, 2019
US- ROK Military Cost Sharing Dispute Resolved for Now
(Source- JTBC News 2.3) US Ambassador Harry Harris and South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa met February 3, to remove an element of tension in the US-South Korean alliance before US- North Korean talks.
In the face of the imminent working level talks between US Special Representative Stephen Biegun and North Korean Ambassador Kim Hyok Chol, the US and South Korea appear to have settled their dispute over the shared costs for maintaining US armed forces in South Korea.
The official announcement is expected this week. JTBC news reported that an agreement to settle the military cost sharing matter for this year was reached in order to present a solid unwavering alliance in the face of denuclearization negotiations between the US and North Korea at the working level anticipated this week. Last night Arirang News reported that the initial US- DPRK meeting could take place as early as February 4, at Panmunjeom. The US also did not want give the impression that US troop withdrawals were on the table.
Unofficially, anonymous sources from the South Korean foreign ministry communications office have said the figure arrived at is one trillion won (about $894 million US). This is the figure South Korean negotiators said earlier they could not exceed because a greater amount would not be approved by the National Assembly. Initially, a figure as high as two billion dollars a year over the usual 5 year term of the agreement was demanded by the US negotiators. During the campaign President Trump had accused the South Korean government as being among allies "getting a free ride," from the United States. Anonymous inside sources said the final demand of the US negotiators on cost sharing was 1,150,000,000 won but it appears that the South Korean side held fast. In return, the South Korean side appears to have agreed that the settlement is only for one year, rather than the usual 5 year term. So negotiations will begin again near the end of 2019.
JTBC reported that US Ambassador Harry Harris, met today with the South Korean Defense Minister, Jeong Kyeong Doo and later with ROK Foreign Minister, Kang Kyung Hwa, to display the firmness of the alliance.
In the face of the imminent working level talks between US Special Representative Stephen Biegun and North Korean Ambassador Kim Hyok Chol, the US and South Korea appear to have settled their dispute over the shared costs for maintaining US armed forces in South Korea.
The official announcement is expected this week. JTBC news reported that an agreement to settle the military cost sharing matter for this year was reached in order to present a solid unwavering alliance in the face of denuclearization negotiations between the US and North Korea at the working level anticipated this week. Last night Arirang News reported that the initial US- DPRK meeting could take place as early as February 4, at Panmunjeom. The US also did not want give the impression that US troop withdrawals were on the table.
Unofficially, anonymous sources from the South Korean foreign ministry communications office have said the figure arrived at is one trillion won (about $894 million US). This is the figure South Korean negotiators said earlier they could not exceed because a greater amount would not be approved by the National Assembly. Initially, a figure as high as two billion dollars a year over the usual 5 year term of the agreement was demanded by the US negotiators. During the campaign President Trump had accused the South Korean government as being among allies "getting a free ride," from the United States. Anonymous inside sources said the final demand of the US negotiators on cost sharing was 1,150,000,000 won but it appears that the South Korean side held fast. In return, the South Korean side appears to have agreed that the settlement is only for one year, rather than the usual 5 year term. So negotiations will begin again near the end of 2019.
JTBC reported that US Ambassador Harry Harris, met today with the South Korean Defense Minister, Jeong Kyeong Doo and later with ROK Foreign Minister, Kang Kyung Hwa, to display the firmness of the alliance.
Friday, February 1, 2019
Meeting at Last: US Envoy Stephen Biegun and DPRK Ambassador Kim Hyok Chol
(Source Channel A News Top Ten 2.1) US latest notice- Plan B against North Korea. Finally meeting- US Biegun vs. DPRK Kim Hyok Chol. Biegun- Pompeo's right hand man; behind the scenes leading US- North Korea negotiations; US State Dept. Special Envoy for North Korea Policy. Kim Hyok Chol- missile characteristics and nuclear specialist; comes from diplomatic "gold spoon" family; close to Kim Jong Un; Former DPRK Ambassador to Spain.
Chosun Ilbo is now reporting the meeting will in be Pyongyang on Wednesday. Four days are scheduled. Kim Hyok Chol, is the former DPRK ambassador to Spain. Said to be meticulous, and dedicated, a veteran diplomat. Asahi Shimbun reported he has experience for this role from the six party talks. He is in effect standing in for North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui at the working level. Choe met earlier with Biegun in Sweden to set up these working talks in Korea in preparation for the second summit expected at the end of February. Kim Hyok Chol was in the DPRK delegation with Kim Yong Chol in DC, received at the White House by Trump January 18. Later Ambassador Kim was pictured in conference in Pyongyang with the same group reporting back to Kim Jong Un. All were seated on the leather sofas (imported from Italy?) in the same study where Kim Jong Un gave his 2019 News Year's Address.
(Source- VOA News 1.19) DPRK diplomat Choe Son Hui, left. US Special Envoy Stephen Biegun, right.
Channel A Top Ten analysts speculated that Kim Hyok Chol was appointed to this important working group role as envoy to deal with Stephen Biegun as a measure to deepen the field of foreign ministry talent, and to put forward someone from the foreign policy elite from the younger generation who has Kim's confidence. In an earlier program on this same topic, the appointment of Kim Hyeok Chol to be the working group negotiator for North Korea, it was said that Choi was too senior in the DPRK foreign ministry to carry out working level negotiations. The US has had a lot of experience with her in prior negotiations. According to Korea Joongang Daily, Ambassador Kim was appointed because he sits on the powerful State Affairs Commission. Like Choe, he speaks English fluently. One Channel A analyst's reasoning suggested a sexist attitude toward women negotiators may have played a role.
The Channel A Top Ten presentation alerted its audience to the presentation at Stanford by Biegun on US North Korean relations on January 31. One of the moderators was Robert Carlin who is a contributing writer on 38North.org. It was revealed that Robert Carlin has been advising Biegun for months. This is remarkable really. Carlin is one of the best experts the US has on negotiations with North Korea. Andrew Kim and Siegfried Hecker were also present. Biegun said a lot of things that undercut the impression he has made in the press earlier, because as a negotiator, he has been somewhat guarded in his public remarks until now. He gave a very informative presentation that displays his skills as a negotiator, at least before a more familiar audience. VOA Korea typically edits Envoy Biegun's statements to make him appear to be a hard liner (kang kyong pa). He does appear to adamantly insist on economic sanctions to the bitter end.
In fact, there was much daylight in his presentation, in the context of the medieval environment inside the beltway and in the media. Following US and South Korean media closely on these negotiations I thought I was imagining this, that an apparently competent person is negotiating for the US. Is this really possible or is this a show before "plan B?"
https://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2019/01/288702.htm
Plan B as it is referred to by Channel A News, and others in South Korea, were the alternative "contingencies" to be taken up by the United States if North Korea is not forthcoming during these negotiations. Among those are resumption of large scale military exercises in Korea, stepping up the economic sanctions, including more rigorous secondary sanctions against violators, and perhaps military options.
Stephen Biegun said this at Stanford during the question period after his presentation concerning the pot shots taken by the intelligence community at the administration's efforts:
Biegun also revealed,"Less noticed but nonetheless very important, I also had the opportunity during that (DC) visit to hold a first extended working-level discussion with my newly appointed North Korean counterpart, Ambassador Kim Hyok Chol."
So this will be their second meeting.
Chosun Ilbo is now reporting the meeting will in be Pyongyang on Wednesday. Four days are scheduled. Kim Hyok Chol, is the former DPRK ambassador to Spain. Said to be meticulous, and dedicated, a veteran diplomat. Asahi Shimbun reported he has experience for this role from the six party talks. He is in effect standing in for North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui at the working level. Choe met earlier with Biegun in Sweden to set up these working talks in Korea in preparation for the second summit expected at the end of February. Kim Hyok Chol was in the DPRK delegation with Kim Yong Chol in DC, received at the White House by Trump January 18. Later Ambassador Kim was pictured in conference in Pyongyang with the same group reporting back to Kim Jong Un. All were seated on the leather sofas (imported from Italy?) in the same study where Kim Jong Un gave his 2019 News Year's Address.
(Source- VOA News 1.19) DPRK diplomat Choe Son Hui, left. US Special Envoy Stephen Biegun, right.
Channel A Top Ten analysts speculated that Kim Hyok Chol was appointed to this important working group role as envoy to deal with Stephen Biegun as a measure to deepen the field of foreign ministry talent, and to put forward someone from the foreign policy elite from the younger generation who has Kim's confidence. In an earlier program on this same topic, the appointment of Kim Hyeok Chol to be the working group negotiator for North Korea, it was said that Choi was too senior in the DPRK foreign ministry to carry out working level negotiations. The US has had a lot of experience with her in prior negotiations. According to Korea Joongang Daily, Ambassador Kim was appointed because he sits on the powerful State Affairs Commission. Like Choe, he speaks English fluently. One Channel A analyst's reasoning suggested a sexist attitude toward women negotiators may have played a role.
The Channel A Top Ten presentation alerted its audience to the presentation at Stanford by Biegun on US North Korean relations on January 31. One of the moderators was Robert Carlin who is a contributing writer on 38North.org. It was revealed that Robert Carlin has been advising Biegun for months. This is remarkable really. Carlin is one of the best experts the US has on negotiations with North Korea. Andrew Kim and Siegfried Hecker were also present. Biegun said a lot of things that undercut the impression he has made in the press earlier, because as a negotiator, he has been somewhat guarded in his public remarks until now. He gave a very informative presentation that displays his skills as a negotiator, at least before a more familiar audience. VOA Korea typically edits Envoy Biegun's statements to make him appear to be a hard liner (kang kyong pa). He does appear to adamantly insist on economic sanctions to the bitter end.
In fact, there was much daylight in his presentation, in the context of the medieval environment inside the beltway and in the media. Following US and South Korean media closely on these negotiations I thought I was imagining this, that an apparently competent person is negotiating for the US. Is this really possible or is this a show before "plan B?"
https://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2019/01/288702.htm
Plan B as it is referred to by Channel A News, and others in South Korea, were the alternative "contingencies" to be taken up by the United States if North Korea is not forthcoming during these negotiations. Among those are resumption of large scale military exercises in Korea, stepping up the economic sanctions, including more rigorous secondary sanctions against violators, and perhaps military options.
Stephen Biegun said this at Stanford during the question period after his presentation concerning the pot shots taken by the intelligence community at the administration's efforts:
"Therefore, ‘what’ is the question, and what President Trump has done is directed the Secretary of State to engage diplomatically through a combination of pressure and incentives to see if we can invite North Korea to make a different set of choices. That’s the complete picture. It’s not that we’re deceived, it’s not that we don’t know what’s going on, it’s not that we don’t take the threat with the gravity that it requires. And by the way, we have enormous capacities to deter that threat as well. So if I were presenting this same information, I would say that we have the potential here for a grave threat to the United States of America, and therefore it is all the more urgent that we engage diplomatically with North Korea to see if we can change the trajectory of their policies by changing the trajectory of our own. And that’s what we’re trying to do.
So my frustration isn’t with the accuracy of the information. It’s how it’s presented and how it’s interpreted. You cannot divorce the intelligence information from policy. The intelligence information is critical as an underpinning for the policy, but the policy is to address the threat and that’s what my frustration was last week."
Biegun also revealed,"Less noticed but nonetheless very important, I also had the opportunity during that (DC) visit to hold a first extended working-level discussion with my newly appointed North Korean counterpart, Ambassador Kim Hyok Chol."
So this will be their second meeting.
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