The official recording of the new year's speech appears to have started at 0003 01012019 local. Yet the thirty minute speech was over at 0053. They left a clock on the mantle so the passage of time was noted. Either Kim took breaks or some other parts were edited out. The edited recording of the speech was broadcast at 0900.
The room's decor makes a few points. The tradition of the communist dynasty's leadership is the backdrop. Kim's affect is to resemble his grandfather, whose regime was not changed by the Korean war with the US and allied United Nations Forces. Secondly, he not only emulates his father's pose, but continues his work, with respect to the nuclear legacy and bargaining with it for a better life for North Korea. The books reflect a repository of knowledge and experience. The west is prone to scoff at North Koreans, who nonetheless have succeeded in building an extensive nuclear weapons and ballistic missile infrastructure. The sofa is empty, symbolizing lack of dialogue.
Tae Yeong Ho, the well known North Korean defector, who served as diplomat for North Korea was interviewed extensively by Channel A News Top Ten on New Year's Day about Kim's speech. Tae says the west has a basic misunderstanding of the joint statement Trump signed in Singapore. This is why North Korea can't stop complaining about the US. North Korea is already a nuclear power. They do not feel that they are bargaining from weakness. Therefore, the North expects reciprocity as one would expect in "disarmament agreement" negotiations. Tae Yeong Ho notes Kim has never discussed unilateral denuclearization but always speaks in terms of complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
The US is not engaged in a reciprocal action for action negotiating process which is what North Korea is seeking. The UN sanctions are a punishment action and assign a continuing stigma to North Korea, that smothers any inclination by the US to actually negotiate rather than simply presenting broad unilateral demands. This is why the US "has all the time in the world," code Tae says for a position where compromise isn't necessary.
It can also be observed that the US is not engaged in the actions of a new friendlier relationship, when new sanctions are imposed by Congress, by the Treasury Department, and moved forward in the UN in a coordinated and constant campaign against North Korea directed by the US government that continues after June 12. The US has moved the focus of its anti North Korean military exercises to Japan in lieu of joint exercises with South Korea suspended for the time being. The US repeatedly threatens to renew the joint exercises with South Korea. Additionally, the US is in an unprecedented manner choosing to rearm Japan with modern offensive weapons. The US has not done very much to create an atmosphere of peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula and appears to regard only one commitment, that of North Korea to completely denuclearize in return for vague unfulfilled promises. This isn't in the Singapore Joint Statement that Kim Jong Un signed. So Kim asserts the US isn't fulfilling its commitments in the Singapore Summit statement either.
Tae Yeong Ho says it would be a mistake to treat the negotiations with North Korea as mutual disarmament negotiations as Kim would like. On the other hand, making broad categorical demands such as for the nuclear facilities list without reciprocal trust building measures is a non starter which evinces the US misapprehension of the North Korean understanding of the Singapore joint statement. A different view to be asserted is that the US knew very well the meaning of the Singapore agreement as understood by Kim. This was demonstrated in a public statement made by Pompeo on June 10, right before the Singapore summit. The US agreed to a reciprocal understanding in order to get Kim to the table in Singapore. This is why the cancellation of US joint exercises with South Korea was announced immediately after the summit. Reciprocity and flexibility are required to proceed with denuclearization of North Korea incrementally. Tae criticized Pompeo for actions during the Oct 7 meeting which included demanding the nuclear facilities list and concealing the fact, that the North flatly refused and withdrew from talks. Instead Pompeo said considerable progress had made in the nuclear negotiating process in Pyongyang. This appears to have been a mid term election ploy mischaracterizing the nature of the Singapore declaration and the North's intentions in the face of a firestorm of domestic criticism of the US administration after the summit.
The anti-North Korean "public relations" and advocacy efforts are constant from the US defense industry financed think tanks, government supported NGOs, Congress, media, VOA, and other sources. Christopher Hill and others who publicly represent the anti-North Korean public relations campaign, have failed in the negotiating process in the past. Hill peremptorily dismisses the notion that the nuclear facilities list would serve as a "target list" for US bombs and missiles. Hill's conclusory opinion is absurd. Of course it could be used as a target list.
It's almost as if the US is institutionally incapable of going forward with the negotiations the Trump administration initiated. The same politicians, media, and so called "experts," representing defense industry interests are still dictating the agenda. Yet, Tae Yeong Ho believes that we will not return to the dire circumstances of nuclear brinkmanship demonstrated by the US and North Korea in 2017. He believes that Kim will take the negotiations to the edge of the cliff and that somehow there will be a reprieve and a return to the negotiating table. Yet, he went so far in one of Channel A News exclusive interview segments as to advise Donald Trump in English not to be taken in by Kim's "nuclear disarmament" approach to a second summit.
Countries will start to force return of NK overseas workers in 2019 as a result of UN sanctions. This will further reduce North Koreas foreign exchange account to a level that is not palatable to the leadership. There is an element of desperation to Kim Jong Un's New Years message, while he presents his position and his readiness to sit down with Donald Trump at any time. His calm demeanor in the reception salon giving the "sofa speech" is a pose. His articulated position is no more nuclear weapons production, no more nuclear weapons tests, no use of nuclear weapons, and no more propagation of nuclear weapons. So where is the US reciprocal response? Kim said, further hostile imposition of sanctions can result in the country without other recourse to "reluctantly" follow a different path to protect the nation's sovereignty and interests and peace and security on the peninsula. This is viewed as a threat in the western media. Kim also requested that the joint military exercises with "foreign forces" bringing strategic military assets into the region stop. So it's a return to regime change politics by the US, and self reliance ideology by the North.
Kim's message to the South as the mediator between the US and the North was very soft and hopeful. Perhaps Kim will meet with President Moon Jae In again in 2019 but probably not in Seoul. Tae suggested Panmunjeom as a likely venue. Tae predicted in another podcast that Kim could hold out until the second half of 2019 probably with Chinese support, without making concessions demanded by the US on denuclearization. Tae opined that some relief from sanctions in the form of reopening Kumgansang resort and Kaeseong Industrial Zone is a major objective of Kim Jong Un as reflected in the speech. The current sanctions regime blocks this kind of economic cooperation between North and South Korea. Perhaps, the US special envoy to North Korea should consider any South Korean proposal for waiver of UN sanctions with respect to these two economic projects as a trust building measure to encourage negotiations and induce further denuclearization concessions by the North Koreans. Tae's prediction that North Korea will yield within the year to the present coercive "no compromise" approach seems overly optimistic.
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