Pollution Left by US Armed Forces

Overhead photo of Yongsan in Seoul Korea shown with hazardous hydrocarbon spill sites. JTBC News June 30

JTBC is reporting 84 recorded incidents of diesel and JP spills at the former Yongsan base. Benzene levels in the water table are 162 times safe limits. It's clear from the MOU on environmental impact remedial measures agreed to by the US under the SOFA, that something needs to be done to correct the situation.

It is reported that Camp Long at Wonju, South Korea, has been closed for seven years and entry is not permitted there because of pollution. US military facilities in S.Korea that are contaminated with hydrocarbons will take years and millions of dollars to clean up. Historically, Camp Hialeah took about 13 million dollars and four years to clean up. Camp Castle in Tongduchan will take at least four years to clean up. People living in the surrounding community report that food grown in the area is inedible due to ground water pollution.

"The South Korean government has decided to effectively give up asking the US military to clean up contamination at Camp Long, a base in Wonju, Gangwon Province, that remains 'US land' seven years after its closure, as environmental talks with the US have dragged out."

South Korea effectively gives up on getting US to clean up returned military base in Wonju
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/805052.html

Goodbye Yongsan

A Channel has a report up this morning about the transfer of the 8th Army HQ, the UN Command and US Armed Forces Korea to Pyongtaek, Camp Humphreys, from Yongsan, Seoul. The agreement to move was signed in 2003, the transfer was begun in 2017. The cost was approximately, 17 trillion won with 8.9 trillion paid by South Korea. So USFK officially moved to Camp Humphreys yesterday.

The US Army occupied Yongsan in the heart of Seoul in 1945. The Koreans are finally getting their capitol back. The Japanese Army first occupied the area 400 years earlier during the Im Jin invasion period. The combined years of continuous Japanese or American occupation in the modern era total at least 114 years.

Camp Humphreys, the new American military base, in Pyongtaek, is a complete community. It is five times bigger than Yoido, the island in Seoul where the National Legislature convenes. Camp Humphreys is reported to be the largest US military base in the world outside US territory.

Trump's Security Trio and General Brooks Working on Summit Follow Up

General Brooks, the United States Forces Korea Commander, gave a good speech today at some presentation before a joint US-ROK event (official move of USFK/UNC to Pyongtaek), reassuring South Koreans about the alliance and explaining the purpose and status of currently suspended joint US ROK military exercises. He said that the US and South Korea were one hundred percent together on security matters, and that just because the "sword" was in the sheath, doesn't mean we don't know how to use it. A Channel reported on this and the "pressure" from the US security trio of Pompeo, Mattis, and Bolton, to get the North to quickly take follow up action with the US on denuclearization measures. Mattis was in Seoul yesterday to meet with South Korean defense officials.

The Financial Times reported that US officials have disclosed off the record that Pompeo may go to Pyongyang next week.

The recent reporting from 38North.org on the infrastructure development at Yongbyon nuclear facility combined with the NK Daily report of the execution of a North Korean general for allegedly releasing food and fuel stores to troops seem characteristically ill timed. The crescendo of US mainstream media criticizing Trump and disseminating these stories is typical fare when there is a risk of peace breaking out. Reports on North Korean executions aren't always reliable. Usually they are exaggerated or incorrect. The narrative of course seeks to undermine Kim's domestic messaging with respect to economic development. One of the reports I read in the English media suggested the North Korean policy was "military first," which contradicts the recent North Korean domestic propaganda. The corrections rarely get the world wide extensive coverage that the initial reports get. Some of this is due to the secretive nature of the totalitarian regime in North Korea, and some is due to political exploitation by factions in the US and South Korea, covert and overt, with their own agendas.

Five North Korean Conventional Military Proposals: Does it Hurt to Ask?

The A Channel Top Ten graphic above lays out nicely the development of five separate North Korean proposals for scaling back military tension and operations on the Korean peninsula. Most of these appear to impose a greater burden on US and South Korean force dispositions than those of the North, if one considers that whatever denuclearization steps the North is prepared to make, have not yet been made.

The first proposal involved the suspension of joint military exercises by armed forces of the US and South Korea. As described in my previous posts this has been carried out by the alliance as a suspension pending further observations of North Korean good faith performance in the future. This apparently awaits further negotiation and disclosure by the parties of any commitments from the North to be achieved. Pompeo is widely expected to return to the negotiating table with Kim in the near future.

The second proposal is the demilitarizaton of the five South Korean islands near the west coast of North Korea north of Inchon and just inside the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea extending northward to Bek Ryang Do. (Saw Buk Do) (discussed in the previous post just below)

Third is the withdrawal of the US 210th Fire Brigade from the region proximate to the DMZ. This is actually part of a proposed mutual withdrawal of artillery forces from a zone extending to 40 kilometers in either direction from the DMZ.

Fourth was a request from the North for a withdrawal of reconnaissance and air patrol forces from a zone south of the DMZ. This proposal among the others seems the most overreaching inasmuch as these air forces on the southern side are necessary for the so called "kill chain" response to counter North Korean missile, rocket and other forces aimed at South Korean or allied targets. This sort of reconnaissance seems essentially defensive in nature although not necessarily so, and therefore not likely to be practicable.

Fifth is a proposal for a prohibition of deployment of US strategic assets in South Korea. Presumably this would include strategic bombers, ships, submarines and other platforms capable of delivery of nuclear weapons. This has been an issue earlier this year with respect to Foal Eagle and Max Thunder exercises. Recent events suggest that US aircraft carriers and F-22s are regarded as included in this category.

Seems like a lot to ask for under the circumstances where the North hasn't made a substantial reduction in its nuclear arsenal or delivery systems yet. So far what has occurred appears to be the "freeze for a freeze" approach recommended by China and Russia. The North has yet to take the next step in response to US and South Korean concessions on the military exercises. It is unlikely that this situation will remain acceptable for long in the US or South Korea.

The A Channel coverage of these developments suggests, in the instant report, that there is implied a sixth proposal or request from North Korea that US forces withdraw from South Korea. This is not the case thus far. Of course, historically, this was the putative goal of all North Korean policy, to remove the US entirely from the Korean peninsula, but as noted by Robert Carlin and Clint Work at 38north.org, this request hasn't been apparent in recent North Korean proposals and shows a degree of political insight that might be lacking elsewhere (perhaps in the White House) as to the geopolitical constraints that make such a request ill advised, impractical and counterproductive.

More Joint Exercise Suspension Announcements

“To support implementing the outcomes of the Singapore Summit, and in coordination with our Republic of Korea ally, Secretary Mattis has indefinitely suspended select exercises,” U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Dana White said on Friday.

“This includes suspending FREEDOM GUARDIAN along with two Korean Marine Exchange Program (KMEP) training exercises scheduled to occur in the next three months,” White added.

“In support of upcoming diplomatic negotiations led by Secretary Pompeo, additional decisions will depend upon the DPRK continuing to have productive negotiations in good faith,” she added.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/us-south-korea-indefinitely-suspend-marine-exchange-exercises/

South Korea A Channel Top Ten reports in its top story uploaded to youtube today that the K-9 live fire exercise in the volatile north west island region is likely also to be suspended. Both President Moon and the North Koreans have proposed a demilitarization of this volatile region which has been the source of violent encounters in the past leading to deterioration of relations, involving sinkings of patrol craft and bombardment of islands. The position of the so called Northern Limit Line (NLL) dividing North South territorial limits in the region has been disputed by the North since the armistice. There have been a series of proposals from the North for withdrawal of armed forces from the frontal zones along the DMZ, but the desire to defuse the western maritime zone is the most likely to proceed if relations between North and South continue to improve. An A Channel graphic from the program depicts the disposition of artillery forces in the region which is regarded as a vulnerable flank of North Korea with the advanced positions of Korean armed forces offshore.


Bek Ryang Do the northernmost of the South Korean islands behind the Northern Limit Line is seven kilometers from the North Korean coast which is visible from the island on a clear day. Tourists from South Korea can take a ferry from Inchon to visit the island during daylight hours.

Wilkerson: Don't Trust Trump, Bolton to Deliver US-North Korea Peace

I'm disappointed that the Colonel starts off with NYT editorial talking points about recognition and prestige for N.Korea, they gave up nothing, blah, blah, blah. He should know about preparing dog and pony shows before a war. He needs to read this from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

"The Problem with Lamenting “Acceptance” of Kim Jong-un."

https://thebulletin.org/problem-lamenting-acceptance-kim-jong-un11921

"More to the point, criticisms of Trump for legitimizing Kim sound more like the complaints of old-money WASPS upset that nouveau riche people of color want to join their golf club than the statements of people seriously trying to solve the problems of nuclear proliferation or imminent war on the Korean Peninsula."

What needs to be added to the "we've been here before argument," is that we've failed to deliver on our promises as well. Even the critic Tae Yong Ho, a North Korean diplomatic defector, has admitted, "it's too early to tell that the summit is a failure." The onus in on North Korea now to perform, a substantial reciprocal move, in response to the suspension of Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise. A US withdrawal from the peninsula is not in the cards. If North Korea doesn't respond appropriately, then Pompeo will lose his bid for leadership, and the neocons representing the inflexible interests in the national security sector, will take over.

China has reaffirmed its commitments to the UN sanctions. The difference in behavior during border inspections is form not substance. If there were evidence of substantial violations, we'd be seeing them.

What is North Korea's Next Move?

Tae Yong Ho, the ubiquitous North Korean defector formerly an official at the North Korean embassy in England, made an appearance on A Channel today, and as usual had plenty of advice for the US. Among the suggestions, was that Trump should listen to all his advisers with respect to the North Korean nuclear issue. Clearly, this is a implied recommendation for Bolton's point of view. He ended one hours worth of interview on the current North Korean scene, by quoting Reagan, "trust but verify," and added "but verify first." The remarks were specifically addressed to President Trump.

Tae is of the view that North Korea will never completely denuclearize peacefully, and that random and thorough inspections of nuclear facilities are domestically unacceptable in North Korea. He continues to speak in terms of a simple dichotomy, that Kim wants security guarantees, and normalization of relations with the US first; then denuclearization. This is in contrast to the step by step, reciprocal and simultaneous measures recommended by Russia, China, and to a certain degree, South Korea. The latter is often referred to as the confidence building approach. Tae suggested Kim will offer only known existing facilities for dismantling while keeping a secret infrastructure to maintain his nuclear threat. At the same time, he did say that it was too early to tell if the summit was a failure or not.

Pompeo's office recently postponed an appearance before the Senate to discuss, the "agreement" made in Singapore. Trump alluded to Pompeo's trips to Pyongyang in the White House with cameras present. When will Pompeo go back? Kim returned from Beijing. What is he going to offer? Trump suspended the Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint exercises with South Korea. If something doesn't materialize soon. Pompeo will be eclipsed.