Routine Defensive Exercises or Prelude to War?

Clearly the US forces deployed to the area before the "baffling turn around" in Kim's "attitude," are practicing for an attack on North Korea, whether it is called a "routine exercise" or not. The forces assembled are not regarded as "routine," even by South Korean analysts. The new catch phrase for US jingoism, replacing "all options on the table," is apparently "fight tonight," with the US State Department adopting the military slogan.

Kim has indicated he will wait until the current "exercise" is over before discussing the prospect of a new meeting. It is not whether the assembled forces associated with Max Thunder deployments will cease their exercise activity but whether those out of area US forces will actually leave the region. The next exercise providing a new opportunity for an attack on North Korea will be Ulchi Freedom Guardian in mid to late August. So the prospect for war before the US mid term election exists.

The situation has returned to the status of 2017, except perhaps that the north is not in a position to detonate any more nukes having just destroyed their test site. A test missile launch could trigger an attack by US forces, as this is exactly what the forces in the graphic published above are designed to do, detect and intercept such an act. If such a missile test fails to occur, what we could expect then is something along the lines of a Tonkin Gulf incident or another Chonan "incident," to provide the pretext for a massive US attack. The danger beyond that would be of nuclear war, if the North were to respond with ballistic missile launches. This is a more dangerous situation than in Syria, because this option, the "death note" if you will or "suicide note," has already been clearly laid down by North Korea as their intended response in the event of US attack. North Korean conventional forces are no match for the US and South Korea in the aerospace realm, so the ballistic missiles would be their response rather than submitting to being bombed at will by the US. There is no check or restraint of a cold war nature, as exerted by the Russians in Syria, to avoid a direct conflagration with the US and allied forces in the region. Tae Yong Ho, the high profile defector has described the mechanism in the north, in the event of a US attack, as a doomsday machine.

Trump Identifies China as the Source of Kim's "turnaround" in Attitude?

Yesterday a short clip from Arirang confirmed something heard on audio from A Channel a couple of days ago. That was that the Vice Speaker of the Korean National Assembly invited Thae Yong Ho, the defector, to speak to there. This is one of things that aggravated Kim Jong Un, because there was a lot of criticism of him, how the secretariat operates for his family's personal advantage, how they won't give up their nuclear program, etc. The defector Thae has an ax to grind. By appearing in a public government forum, this event was intended to cause trouble. Sim Jae Chol, the Vice Speaker of the National Assembly, invited him to speak. Sim is hostile to Moon, and Tae is hostile to North Korea. The ruling democratic party questions if Tae has even seen Kim Jong Un once.

In addition to this, activists are sending propaganda leaflets over the DMZ in balloons which is another encroachment on the reduction of tensions and "hostile acts" promised at the Panmumjeom summit.

Sim Jae Chol was the president of the Seoul U student council government in the period of the infamous Democracy Movement uprising in Kwangju. He caused the student uprising against the military dictatorship in Seoul, which had occupied the Seoul Train Station, to withdraw and disperse at a critical time in May 1980. He is currently an opposition party member of Jayoo Hanguk Dang, Liberty Korea Party. He scheduled this event in the assembly with Thae Yoeng Ho, about the time of 5.18, which is the commemoration day for the slaughter by military forces of Chun Do Hwan of democracy movement activists in Kwangju. He is portrayed in movies and elsewhere as enabling the massacre in Kwangju, by backing down in the student demonstration confrontation in Seoul at the time. In other words, he's criticized as an enabler at the time of crucial events. Lately, he's been fighting Moon's policies toward North Korea.

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=102&oid=082&aid=0000758717

So if we look at South Korean defector activities, egged on apparently by politicians on the scene, and forces behind the scenes, in addition to the US and Korean military efforts to avoid the common sense restraints put the on the joint military exercises, and the one sided, unreasonable demands from the US, this is what Kim has had his subordinates and press complain about. I bring all this up, because the latest A Channel report is saying that Trump had an unpleasant conversation with Moon, questioning him about Kim's turn around in attitude. Well, if he didn't know he could ask his own people in DOD or the CIA. Evidently, he has no idea what they doing. Maybe they won't tell him. He's obviously clueless about negotiating on the nuclear issue. It was always a pipe dream to think that it could be done any other way, than the way it was done before, or the way it was done with Iran. The main difficulty is realizing that prior difficulties and breakdowns in negotiations with the North were due to people on the US side who didn't want the agreement then, and never did. One of these people is the strident neocon Bolton. The others are the generals and other national security sector personnel who see their empire and arms markets in the far east in jeopardy if a deal goes through.

Trump has no idea what the "Libyan method" is and what the reference implies - lack of reciprocal and binding obligations on a step by step basis to build confidence. Trump seems to think that his vague promises, of rewards later, is going to reassure Kim. Senator Graham now calls it "win-win," or war. This isn't how negotiations work. The people who criticize Kim or the North Koreans as people who can't be trusted, who broke the agreement before, who are back to the their old tricks, etc., are simply the cheering section for the US, and don't understand the problem. They can't be taken seriously as analysts, because they are advocates for the war industry's business as usual.

They're going to try to get Adm. Harris approved as the US Ambassador to South Korea just before the summit with Kim, so that's another stick in the eye for the North Korea, which referred to Japan just within the last few days, as the "one hundred year enemy." Harris is regarded as a "hard liner," with respect to North Korea. In fact, I attribute the dancing around about Max Thunder to him and General Brooks, the USFK commander.

KIm Jong Un's "Baffling" About Face: 김정은 "美, 전략무기 빼는 등 성의 보여야"

There was something of political fire drill in official circles in the last 48 hours concerning the B-52 issue related to the Max Thunder joint US South Korea military exercise. The official statements were that they were never a part of Max Thunder. Then there was a public dispute between Professor Moon, the private national security adviser to the Blue House, and Defense Minister Song about whether B-52s were requested to be removed from Max Thunder plans or whether they were never a part of it. A Channel published a new youtube about strategic assets in the area. It's in Korean but you can see from the diagrams and charts that they are reporting at least one B-52 is deployed to Okinawa and is conducting anti North Korean radar network exercises in a region "south of Cheju island" described as "in the vicinity" of the Korean peninsula.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY-pdH4cnUs&t=322s

Ri Seon Gwan, North Korean Inter Korea Committee Chairman, continues the diplomatic criticism against South Korea in the wake of deputy foreign minister Kim Gae Kwan's criticisms earlier that cancelled the high level North South Military summit and placed the US North Korea summit in jeopardy. Also, the South Korean press groups application to attend the destruction of the nuclear test site has been rejected.

In addition to the one sided, umcompromising, and apparently never ending list of US demands from the likes of John Bolton, and Mike Pompeo, the triggering issue really is this Max Thunder exercise. I see this is a transparent attempt to achieve what Gen. Brooks wanted all along, to continue Foal Eagle in another guise. He objected at the outset to limitations in scope and duration on the Foal Eagle exercise including the removal of strategic assets.

"Despite the Pentagon’s claim that the drills will be on the “same scale, scope and duration as previous years,” Foal Eagle has been shortened to a month and will not involve U.S. military hardware considered by the North Korean regime to be especially threatening (so-called strategic assets) including nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines and U.S. strategic bombers such as the B-1, B-2 and B-52."
https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/us-south-korea-kick-off-annual-military-drill-without-us-strategic-assets/

Ri Seon Gwan accuses the South Koreans of incompetence, ignorance, lack of discrimination, having less than common sense, and so on. Some of the missteps giving rise to the North Korean concerns are described below:

In addition to the B52 operating out of Okinawa, in a mission role obviously related to the Max Thunder scenarios, why is a strategic Army pre-positioning ship, USNS Sonderman, doing in Pusan weeks after the termination of Foal Eagle?

We have the various attack plans discussed in the Korean public press (Channel A) concerning Max Thunder. And in addition there is public discussion (Channel A) of so called "real world" planning for attacks on North Korea taking place in South Korea with the CIA. Both of the prior activities allegedly involved so called "decapitation" scenarios. Decapitation refers to the destruction of the command and control function of the North Korean State and its leadership. In addition, there is the high profile defector, Tae Yeong Ho's propaganda campaign against North Korea, which is inescapable in media, and political circles in South Korea, describing Kim Joung Un as Jeo Pal Gae, a "piggy" cartoon character. Sim Jae Chol the Vice Speaker of the National Assembly invited him to speak at a press conference. Sim is hostile to Moon, and Tae is hostile to North Korea. The democratic party questions if Tae has even seen Kim Jong Un once.

All of this is in addition to John Bolton's thinly disguised and cynical promotion of the so called "Libyan method" to conduct denuclearization of North Korea.

Private Marshall Plan for North Korea as a result of the "Libyan method?" 의심 할 것?

I just watched an Channel A news piece that reported security experts say Singapore is a security headache. It has copious pedestrian and tourist traffic. It is an island city, open from every direction, and the tall buildings provide a security nightmare because they are advantageous for snipers. The large numbers of foreigners and crowds make it opportune for chemical attacks, etc. While no city is "secure," Singapore is less secure than some other choices. US press parroted the official line that Singapore was picked because of it's security.

Brian Hook, State Dept senior advisor at the policy planning office, is the one who said it would take until 2020 to irreversibly denuclearize North Korea. In other words, it would take the entire remainder of Trump's term in office.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/11/top-advisors-fate-serves-as-bellwether-for-state-department/

" 'While Hook has alienated rank-and-file foreign service officers, he also retains an almost exclusive knowledge of high-level diplomatic discussions on an array of issues, as Tillerson heavily relied on him while other senior diplomats were sometimes cut out of the loop.

'It’s kind of awkward. Brian is the only person who knows what happened for the last year and a half,' the former diplomat says."

An old Wash Post that I can't gain access to without paying, claimed there was still an excellent Korea team inside the State Dept, and suggested maybe they would get some play with Tillerson out.

It's been noted that the White House had already done an end around the State Dept, with Pompeo building his foreign policy network in preparation for the move to State, as long ago as last November.

I don't see evidence that people at State are involved in the current process, except maybe for Hook, who wasn't one to share the glory with the professional ranks of the state department. Who exactly is on Pompeo's team for the North Korean summit other than Andrew Kim, and his CIA team in Korea?

In my view, Hook let the cat out of the bag with the 2020 remarks.

Channel A says that Kim had gone to China to seek economic relief on the second trip to meet Xi.

We haven't heard a thing from Foreign Minister Kang, recently, or anyone else about the starving people right now in North Korea. I know China had shipped a substantial amount of food there in the spring, just before Xi's first meeting with Kim, but apparently, the North Korean soldiers are still starving and there are significant distribution problems due to the effects of sanctions. What happened to the South Korean promises of humanitarian aid?

One view has it that the missiles, warheads, nuclear materials like plutonium, and enriched uranium could be removed within months if it were properly planned and executed. It was also suggested that 4 to 5 hundred thousand tons of chemical weapons could be shipped out or destroyed during this same shorter term time frame. On the other hand, the longer term projection of Hook probably concerns the ability to permanently remove and assure that the regeneration of these weapons programs would not be possible. One of the latest concerns is what about the personnel who know how to make such weapons? I still have my doubts about how well planned or thought out either of these positions are. I guess anything could be accomplished by the end of 2020.

The high level diplomatic representative, Thae Yong-ho (Korean: 태영호) who defected from the N.Korean embassy in UK, has said, in the recent past, that the nuclear program was essential to Kim. The removal of the program therefore is going to harm any measure of legitimacy that his administration of North Korea has internally. The defector says the stuff about the parallel economic policy (byun jin) is just a pretense, that it doesn't exist. I don't entirely agree, but I agree that whatever economic advances there were are now destroyed. So if the sanctions will be kept on until CVID/ now PCVID+WMD, then his regime could collapse. China will have to make inroads on this front, or some bad things may happen in North Korea.

The longer term projection by Hook, shows how cynical the positions of Bolton, Pompeo, and Trump are. Would the US concede on softening the sanctions regime, after the shorter timetable for destruction of the immediate nuclear weapons threat? I don't think it's likely after all their tough talking pronouncements.

Will China come forward at risk to itself to compensate for the catastrophic failing of the North Korean economy under the sanctions before the ever increasing list of US demands to be satisfied are satisfied? Doesn't this appear to be a shifting of all the risks and costs of "CVID," to North Korea and China? Aren't the US promises of private investment in North Korea illusory promises unworthy of belief? This is the nature of what Kim discussed with Xi in Dalien according to JTBC. The source was a Japanese newspaper report.

Observations of and Thoughts on the North South Summit at Panmunjeom: "The destiny of our people shall only be determined by us."




The table for the negotiations in the peace house was changed to an oval shape, to imply closer cooperation between the two states, and the large portrait in one room is changed to the famous Geumgansan mountain peak range, rather than Bektusan or Hallasan at the respective poles of the North and South, to reflect the accommodation of the respective states. Bektusan is the famous volcano on the Chinese border of North Korea. Hallasan is the largest volcano in the center of Cheju island.


The Geumgangsan region in North Korea was open to South Korean tourism between 1999 and 2008. The facilties there were used by the International Red Cross to arrange north south family reunions.

Later at the ceremonial planting of the "Peace and Prosperity Tree," in the Joint Security Area, Kim shoveled soil brought from Hallasan, Chejudo, South Korea, and Moon shoveled soil brought from Bektusan, North Korea.


It's hard to read Kim's writing in the guest register in the Peace House, there is an introductory phrase to the writing that I think says "A new history from this time an era of peace, from the historic starting point...." then his illegible signature. His writing is right handed and slants upward and to the right.


Kim said it took some effort to bring the cold noodles from Pyongyang. Then he quipped, "I shouldn't say it's far away (any longer)." Then
he said, "let's not worry too much about the eleven years we didn't talk to each other. (let's make the most of this) we must be successful."
Moon said, "the moment Kim stepped over the DML, made Panmoonjeom the symbol of peace." Moon wrote in the register, "Everyone in the world wishes for peace, let's give them that gift."


Kim had said earlier that he was moved that Moon came to the DML to meet him. That was the audio from the very beginning when Kim stepped up to the line.

The Japanese press has live coverage focusing on the event. Evidently some of the coverage's editorial content is "we need to see something concrete." As if nothing positive has happened yet.


Kim did say "let's make some good results today," more than once. Expressly using the "us" form of the verb.



Here's my comment on an RT CrossTalk video on youtube, Korean Peace Blitz, April 25, before the summit, as the guests floundered around the Korean issues:


"Il gwol (one bundle) v. dan gae (phased) negotiations. The American position seeks complete verifiable irreversible denuclearization in one bundle. The other parties except Japan seek a phased implementation with reciprocal action for action. S. Korea tries to bridge the differences with a bundled package agreement with a phased implementation. Maintaining "maximum pressure" (sanctions) until total CVID won't work. The US hardline position initially proposed by Trump has the potential to fail catastrophically in one meeting. North Korea isn't going to accept just "sweet words," in exchange for tangible implementation of denuclearization. Pompeo seems aware of this. Will Trump move into a give and take reciprocal step by step implementation, or stick with the so called Libyan method of denuclearization?"

Post summit thoughts-

The Blue House itself has said the US needs to demonstrate more flexibility. While Emanuel Pastreich says Moon has been "lucky," I don't know if you could call Korean history one of luck, but he unquestionably gets the historical context referring to nationalist Kim Koo, who went to North Korea to meet Kim Il Sung in 1948, and who was assassinated by order of Syngmun Rhee's intelligence director a year later. He also recognizes the significance of the candlelight demonstrations that brought down Park Kun Hae and brought Moon to power. He's a wonderful interpreter of Korean events for American and other English speaking peoples to hear. He also discusses the spiritual dimension of these historic developments.


South Korean neighborhood neng myun (cold noodle) restaurants are mobbed after Kim brings Pyongyang neng myun to the Peace House for the delagations to enjoy at dinner.


JTBC is reporting that the official press in North Korea is making known the government's intention to have complete denuclearization. This is the first such public disclosure in North Korea and is a significant event. It's interesting that they are also quoting the North Korean newspaper report to say that the two leaders had a frank and candid exchange of perspectives on the problems associated with a denuclearization of the peninsula.


Nevertheless, it says that "it was confirmed that it is the joint objective of the North and South to achieve complete denuclearization of the peninsula."


It is said in the JTBC news report that the views of Trump or the Trump position on denuclearization was discussed during the 30 minute private conversation between Moon and Kim, and that Moon conveyed Trump's position.


The understandings negotiated for a complete denuclearization are that the North denuclearize and return to the NPT agreement and allow IAEA inspections as soon as possible. Also that any plans for future nuclear weapons should be completely abandoned. It looks to me that Kim has basically agreed to the US objectives here as far as that it should be complete and verifiable. As soon as possible differs from a phased approach in the past. I saw a streamer in the live news reporting reference to Moon saying we need to get this done as soon as possible, emphasizing that time was of the essence.


In return it appears that Moon's negotiators have made promises that there are/will be no US nuclear weapons in S.Korea, and that the US has no intentions of attacking nor invading North Korea whether by nuclear or conventional weapons. These statements are said to provide the contextual background for understanding the meaning of the Sixth provision. So the order of things is still the issue, China is saying that the peace agreement, the resolution of the armistice state of affairs for the peace treaty should be completed first and the US must come forward now and take action. This is in contrast to Trump's vague optimism and blandishments such as, we'll go to the meeting and see how it turns out. So the fourth provision on peace comes before the agreement on denuclearization according to the Chinese.


Moon is hoping to get the joint economic zone in Kesong reopened by the next summit in the fall.


Moon agreed to having the maritime zone around the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, which has been a matter of dispute since the armistice, to be a "peace zone." I understand that a hot line was set up for this region just recently, before the summit, and the desire is to avoid armed confrontations in the area, such as that which led to military conflicts in the recent past. In return, for this agreement, the North recognized the NLL which it has never done before. They had their own line, and maritime territorial claim. There are several other conventional arms reductions goals agreed to by the parties.


Conservative elements are in an uproar over this.
"See you in Pyongyang this fall..."

The "Libyan Method"

Trump is singularly unprepared to negotiate with North Korea. In fact, he said he isn't going there to negotiate, but rather it's just a meeting. South Korea, North Korea, and China, have proposed a common idea for a resolution of the nuclear weapons issue in North Korea. Those plans include step by step procedures to denuclearize, accompanied by reciprocal consideration from the US, S.Korea and the international community to build trust. The US has no plan, they have simply made a unilateral ultimatum. Bolton has stated that it's a good thing to get the meeting out of the way, so they can get on with it. As far as talks go, he proposes a so called "Libyan method." When can we come in and dismantle everything nuclear along with all your missiles? There is according to Bolton, nothing else to discuss. Just calling it the "Libyan" method, means it won't be accepted and predetermines the outcome. The North Koreans have already stated they won't accept such a method. So this is more like the express train to war in northeast Asia.


The US demand is complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization, with no discussion of US reciprocity in the process. That's an ultimatum. Right now the North Korean purpose is to get the US to accept a three phased approach, freeze, reduce, eliminate, (nuclear weapons infrastructure and capabilities) with good faith US/ROK reciprocity at each step. This is what the South Korean's had envisioned at the beginning, though it was never mentioned in the western press. Clearly this is the point of contention with the maximum pressure, nothing conceded till you completely capitulate US demand. China has acted to protect its own national security interests in the region against US threats of war. It is weighing in on behalf of the north.

A Channel A Youtube from South Korea, published on April 1, showed the respective positions of the four states, North and South Korea, China and the US. The US position was first eliminate your nuclear infrastructure, later reward. The other three states all envisaged a phased approach to build trust and accomplish complex tasks. The South Koreans see a single agreement for denuclearization,  followed by steps for implementation. The North Koreans and Chinese see a phased step by step approach, accompanied by simultaneous reciprocal acts by the US, South Korea, and the international community.

Finally, the Blue House, has issued a public statement saying the "Libyan method" is impossible (불가능 不可能) and that the US must demonstrate flexibility.

Observations on South Korea's Arts Group in Pyongyang

A short video clip less than two minutes has some of the highest political leadership of North Korea joining in the singing with the South Korean political representatives who accompanied the arts group to Pyongyang. They are singing Let's Meet Again, and Our Wish, which are theme songs of the unification movement. This is how the joint group performance, which included artists from both states, finished the show.

This video has this scene in it, which is something I thought I'd never see. The political representatives of South Korea and North Korea, powerful politicians not singer performers, are holding hands and singing along with the music! The scene occurs about the 1 minute mark. I couldn't believe my eyes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F5nGUi9nzc

The clip, in the link above, is a taken from MBN news, Channel 8.

I watched another broadcast clip from the South Korean Channel A (on youtube) evaluating the cultural exchange performances. The South Korean music content is not being released on North Korean television. The only audio being released is the Our Wish song which has the unification theme, and the following similar song "Let's Meet Again," with the same theme. The analysts say the North Korean leadership are afraid that the North Korean public would be "influenced" by South Korean performance audio content.

The analysts in South Korea believe that General Kim Yong Chol, the hardliner that went to the Olympic closing, is responsible for the (almost total) quarantine on the South Korean performances in North Korea. Kim's younger sister, she's in charge of the propaganda department, probably plays a role as well.

Several of the news videos of the audience for this performance show the audience moving with the music in the finale, in a manner uncharacteristic for North Koreans if we judge by the last such performance in Pyongyang in 2005. So when General Chol and the other heavies are holding hands with the South Korean political representatives, it is during the joint performance of the propaganda unification songs, if you will. Yet, it is still incredible to see these hardcore North Korean communists acting this way.

The domestic censorship of the South Korean music audio is consistent with the "criticism" in the North Korean Worker's Daily commentary yesterday about South Korean arts and culture being the product of capitalist decadence and so on, seducing the working class into slavery. So that audio content is being censored from the North Korean public other than those privileged enough to be selected to attend the event. I had read discussions after the N.Korean US summit was publicly disclosed as something that Trump would accept, that it would take time for North Korea to prepare itself domestically for this. This is reflected in this censorship scheme. South Korean press was barred from entry to the venue, and Chol apologized (which evidently is a rare thing) but I don't think that changed anything.

The world wide whirlwind of North and South Korean diplomatic activity hasn't worked out yet, and is still a work in progress. While various "experts" say the receptivity of the US president to talks unduly raises Kim Jong Un's prestige and "rewards" him, this is essentially incorrect. Meeting with the President and the extensive contacts with South Korea are essentially destabilizing, which is another reason to hold information close and communications under strict censorship in North Korea. If the US rebuffs North Korea, it's going to present an even more complex and hazardous situation.

Kim had requested an oldie South Korean love song on the program, "Belated Regrets." The South Korean artist didn't like having to do it, she said she disliked the song. Kim requested it because it was his father's favorite song. Allegedly Kim Jong Il used to sing it to himself. So Kim demonstrated "hyo," as the dutiful Confucian son. It's not for the domestic audience who don't get to hear it, but maybe to influence South Koreans. Kim apparently thanked the performer for doing it.

A Korean I spoke to recently said that many people in the south are not receptive to this unification message. I've heard that on Korean news as well, that the younger South Korean generation having great economic difficulties is not eager to absorb the costs of development of North Korea. In addition to this older conservative Koreans just can't cope with or accept this ideologically. The latter are the type of people who go to the flag demonstrations and support former conservative presidents Park and Lee. There is no question that unification has appeal to Moon supporters, and also businesses which want to have their limited enterprises in North Korea restored and those who look forward to developing North Korean mineral resources and markets.