Monday, May 14, 2018

Private Marshall Plan for North Korea as a result of the "Libyan method?" 의심 할 것?

I just watched an Channel A news piece that reported security experts say Singapore is a security headache. It has copious pedestrian and tourist traffic. It is an island city, open from every direction, and the tall buildings provide a security nightmare because they are advantageous for snipers. The large numbers of foreigners and crowds make it opportune for chemical attacks, etc. While no city is "secure," Singapore is less secure than some other choices. US press parroted the official line that Singapore was picked because of it's security.

Brian Hook, State Dept senior advisor at the policy planning office, is the one who said it would take until 2020 to irreversibly denuclearize North Korea. In other words, it would take the entire remainder of Trump's term in office.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/11/top-advisors-fate-serves-as-bellwether-for-state-department/

" 'While Hook has alienated rank-and-file foreign service officers, he also retains an almost exclusive knowledge of high-level diplomatic discussions on an array of issues, as Tillerson heavily relied on him while other senior diplomats were sometimes cut out of the loop.

'It’s kind of awkward. Brian is the only person who knows what happened for the last year and a half,' the former diplomat says."

An old Wash Post that I can't gain access to without paying, claimed there was still an excellent Korea team inside the State Dept, and suggested maybe they would get some play with Tillerson out.

It's been noted that the White House had already done an end around the State Dept, with Pompeo building his foreign policy network in preparation for the move to State, as long ago as last November.

I don't see evidence that people at State are involved in the current process, except maybe for Hook, who wasn't one to share the glory with the professional ranks of the state department. Who exactly is on Pompeo's team for the North Korean summit other than Andrew Kim, and his CIA team in Korea?

In my view, Hook let the cat out of the bag with the 2020 remarks.

Channel A says that Kim had gone to China to seek economic relief on the second trip to meet Xi.

We haven't heard a thing from Foreign Minister Kang, recently, or anyone else about the starving people right now in North Korea. I know China had shipped a substantial amount of food there in the spring, just before Xi's first meeting with Kim, but apparently, the North Korean soldiers are still starving and there are significant distribution problems due to the effects of sanctions. What happened to the South Korean promises of humanitarian aid?

One view has it that the missiles, warheads, nuclear materials like plutonium, and enriched uranium could be removed within months if it were properly planned and executed. It was also suggested that 4 to 5 hundred thousand tons of chemical weapons could be shipped out or destroyed during this same shorter term time frame. On the other hand, the longer term projection of Hook probably concerns the ability to permanently remove and assure that the regeneration of these weapons programs would not be possible. One of the latest concerns is what about the personnel who know how to make such weapons? I still have my doubts about how well planned or thought out either of these positions are. I guess anything could be accomplished by the end of 2020.

The high level diplomatic representative, Thae Yong-ho (Korean: 태영호) who defected from the N.Korean embassy in UK, has said, in the recent past, that the nuclear program was essential to Kim. The removal of the program therefore is going to harm any measure of legitimacy that his administration of North Korea has internally. The defector says the stuff about the parallel economic policy (byun jin) is just a pretense, that it doesn't exist. I don't entirely agree, but I agree that whatever economic advances there were are now destroyed. So if the sanctions will be kept on until CVID/ now PCVID+WMD, then his regime could collapse. China will have to make inroads on this front, or some bad things may happen in North Korea.

The longer term projection by Hook, shows how cynical the positions of Bolton, Pompeo, and Trump are. Would the US concede on softening the sanctions regime, after the shorter timetable for destruction of the immediate nuclear weapons threat? I don't think it's likely after all their tough talking pronouncements.

Will China come forward at risk to itself to compensate for the catastrophic failing of the North Korean economy under the sanctions before the ever increasing list of US demands to be satisfied are satisfied? Doesn't this appear to be a shifting of all the risks and costs of "CVID," to North Korea and China? Aren't the US promises of private investment in North Korea illusory promises unworthy of belief? This is the nature of what Kim discussed with Xi in Dalien according to JTBC. The source was a Japanese newspaper report.

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