Saw one South Korean analysis yesterday that ended up focusing on the Constitutional Court in South Korea "packed" with Yoon appointees. Yoon also in effective control over the executive blocking any impartial investigation of himself or his spouse due to his historical relationship with the Public Prosecutors Offices and in addition to that his record routine use of veto powers, is an authoritarian ruler. The majority opposition party in the National Assembly has been unable to appoint an independent prosecutor to take on Yoon and his wife to set the stage for impeachment. Otherwise, expect 3 more years of Yoondoom. (Yoon's rule is damaging the conservative party as demonstrated by the last general election.) Even if the opposition democrats could overcome Yoon's veto, and ultimately be on the road to impeachment, the conservative Constitutional Court packed by Yoon would probably find impeachment not to be warranted.
One fly in the ointment for Yoon is his party's election this week of Han Dong-hun, former prosecutor and former Minister of Justice, as the new PPP conservative party leader. Han received a convincing 62.8* percent of rank and file party votes. Just as there is no trust among thieves, this performance by Han puts him in line for a later run as a presidential contender. Han in the past, served as Yoon's loyal henchman, and was also close to the First Lady Kim Gon-hee. Now, Han's loyalty to Yoon is no longer an asset but a liability to his ambition.
The opposition democratic majority party technically only needs 8 votes to defect from Han's party to override Yoon's vetoes of independent prosecutor legislation designed to set Yoon up for an impeachment. Such a vote would likely put Han and whatever followers he now may have in the prosecutors offices in a position to place Han as a presidential candidate sooner rather than later.
Then Han's clique could refocus and continue their prosecutions of Lee Jae-myung, Cho Guk, and other potential presidential contenders to remove them from the field as Han and Yoon had been doing for years. Han could, by making a deal with the opposition party, enable them to override any presidential veto and thereafter secure enough votes for impeachment. If the Constitutional Court understood that Han was the rising star in the conservative political world, it could possibly be moved by "noon chi" perception of the best interests of the conservative vested "corrupt special interests," to get rid of Yoon to facilitate Han's rise to power. In other words the Constitutional Court could change its direction long enough to get rid of Yoon and empower Han to be his replacement after an early election. To set this up, Han might have to deliver maybe 18 votes to overcome Yoon's veto, because the opposition democratic party has probably around 10 defectors (DINO's) in its ranks that won't vote for anything Lee Jae-myung wants to do.
*Updated this number based on late reports 7.26 00:45 est.
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