Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Unbelievable- Yoon provokes a crisis and then leaves town
Below is my comment concerning Nodutol's interview on Breakthrough News-
How the US Uses South Korea and Japan As Pawns Against China https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcbQrt6y73s
I don't know how the current military tension between North and South Korea can be intelligently discussed without a discussion of the demise of the 9.19.2018 military agreement negotiated between Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un. The US was opposed to the agreement and associated cooperative initiatives to reduce military tensions from the outset. It actively lobbied against the agreement. In the same vein, the US allowed neo-cons to sabotage the Trump-Kim summit at Hanoi. The 9.19 agreement created buffer zones where military exercises and operations were either excluded or limited north and south of the DMZ/military demarcation line and within defined distances from the Northern Limit Lines in the East and West Seas. This agreement limited the chances for accidental military confrontations that might lead to war. The Yoon administration along with the US was opposed to the agreement and intended to get rid of it from the outset. With the active cooperation of the Yoon administration, the allies resumed massive military exercises without restrictions including live fire exercises near the DMZ and in the West Sea region which is a tinderbox. They have thereby set up a situation where disastrous events may occur such as the sinking of the ROK vessel Cheonan and the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010.
Another key element missing from this analysis is a discussion of the new so called trilateral partnership the "new right" administration of Yoon Seok-yeol joined with the US and Japan. That South Korean submission to Japan is the result of US overreach whereby the US has succeeded in maneuvering South Korea into a quasi-alliance with Japan, without having resolved existing disputes between South Korea and Japan. The current South Korean administration is a pro Japanese faction (친일파) that really has little support domestically now that its true character has been plainly revealed. The Yoon administration sold out South Korea on key issues, including the war time forced labor issue, the comfort women issue, and the territorial dispute over Dokdo islets in the East Sea. Further the Yoon administration has agreed to share greater amounts of military secrets with Japan, and participate in trilateral military exercises that include Japan. South Korea also appears receptive to the display of the Japanese Rising Sun flag (욱일기) in South Korea, while entertaining negotiation of a so called facilitation agreement with Japan, which would in effect, allow movement of Japanese active duty personnel into South Korea. Yoon has stated previously that he could foresee circumstances when Japanese forces might be present in South Korea. These concessions are anathema to the majority of the South Korean public. The US attitude has always been "when are they going to get over it? This shows absolutely no understanding of the history of the region or the prevailing South Korean perspective toward Japan based upon its bitter experience of Japanese colonial rule.
One final note it's not really accurate to characterize North Korea and China as "allies." China has security interests in the Korean peninsula, natural trade interests, and and shared historical experiences. North Korea is quite jealous of its need to remain independent of China's dominance. At this point its safe to say that North Korean military cooperation with Russia is greater, and trade relations with both China and Russia need to be maintained to offset sanctions restrictions which have been eroded in the current geopolitical context.
On to Yoon's diplomatic tour of central Asian states-
There is high tension along the DMZ in Korea, including an incident in which warning shots were fired by the South at some North Korean soldiers who appeared to be on a work detail that crossed the MDL by mistake. While balloons fly across the DMZ carrying trash, and propaganda loudspeakers blared from the south, Yoon goes on a diplomatic tour of central Asian states to sign some "Korean silk road" commercial agreements. This just after he incredibly claims oil and gas have been discovered in the South Korean EEZ of the East Sea, after an exploration company with a multiyear contract abandoned the project. He and the first lady also skip town after the Anti-corruption Commission finds that there is nothing amiss with the first lady's acceptance of a Dior designer bag, from a Korean-American pastor who appeared to be seeking to influence public policy. Isn't it marvelous how things just come together? It is incredible that Yoon took his two top National Security Advisors with him when he left on his trip.
South Koreans generally are very receptive to persons who assimilate their language and culture, or even try to, although it is well known, that in other respects they discriminate against foreigners, immigrants and so on. I saw a video on national defense yesterday where the analyst (I think it was Kim Jong-tae) said he didn't think war with North Korea was likely to be imminent because there were as many as 2 million foreigners in South Korea now and there was no indication of the enormous effort it would take to get them out of the country which would be a potential indicator. This he thinks acts as a restraint on South Korea acting too agressively. But the warning shots incident in the DMZ yesterday suggests, that the abandonment of the 5km buffer zone, and the reestablishment of more watch posts inside the DMZ definitely creates more opportunity for conflict by mistake.
The Anti-Corruption Commission administrative finding of no crime of graft by the first lady was announced at close of business, when no one was left at the office, and the presidential couple had left the country. How fortunate for them! Meanwhile the new 22nd National Assembly is being boycotted by the Yoon's conservative PPP party.
Well, we've taken care of everything honey, let's take another international tour. Maybe that will help our poll numbers.
Correction, 6.16.2024- National Assembly member Kim Byong-ju, former CFC deputy commander, and retired four star general, disclosed yesterday that the warning shots fired at North Korean troops on the DMZ took place last Sunday and wasn't disclosed till Wednesday. He observed this was highly unusual and felt the late release of the information was to facilitate better optics for Yoon's untimely departure on his diplomatic tour of central Asia.
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