Sunday, April 21, 2024

Jeffrey Sachs on Kishida Speech to Congress; Asian NATO?



Yoon's party suffered a great loss in the April 10, general elections for the National Assembly. A recent Korea gallup poll showed his approval rating at 23 percent. I suppose that is better than Kishida's 16 percent. While these two do their best to alienate China, their currencies are suffering probably because their market relations with China are suffering. China is the number one trading power in Asia. I heard some cocky pro-American pundit in the Philippines trying to sell the Marcos anti-China pitch and the new US military buildup in the Philippines particularly in Luzon across from Taiwan. He cited South Korea as an example of confronting China by joining the tri-lateral partnership with Japan and the US and doing well. News bulletin to the Philippines, South Korea isn't "doing well." In fact, Yoon presiding over a crashing economy and a currency dropping like a stone, along with his popularity, requested his principal ministers and presidential officials to resign, except those in the national security sector (go figure - these are the pro-US insiders directing the US Indo-Pacific agenda). This is ironic in that the National Security Advisors office is suspected of interfering in the defense ministry's independent legal investigation of the drowning death of marine corporal Choi last year. This pretty much fits within Yoon's MO of interfering in investigations whenever he takes a mind to. Some pundits suggest this scandal, which included sending the former defense minister to Australia as ambassador to get him out of the country, quickly, could be one thread leading to Yoon's undoing. Obviously the Yoon "vegetable administration" is in panic mode.

Guess what? Yoon is having a problem getting conservatives to come forward to volunteer to take these posts. So someone allegedly (probably Yoon's wife, the problematic first lady) suggested democrats take the two most important posts, including Prime Minister and Chief of Staff. The rumor was denied by the presidential office. Next, Yoon proposed a meeting with democratic party leader Lee Jae-myung in a five minute phone call Friday. Lee, who directed his party's landslide victory in the Assembly elections, is invited by Yoon to meet with him, to recommend ministers, presidential office staff, etc., as well as policies to deal with current domestic crises. Yoon has never met with the opposition leader of the majority party in the national assembly during the two years thus far of his administration. So now that his dysfunctional administration is virtually paralyzed, Yoon wants the opposition leader he is still trying to put in prison, and has been trying to put in prison for years, to come forward with his party, to solve Yoon's political and economic crises. Yoon has run out of other people to blame for his series of political blunders, so he wants the democrats to come forward so they can take the blame for him. LOL.

The national security problem in Asia is more serious. This editorial describes the predicament of a re-arming Japan allied with the US blaming tensions there on China.

Has Korea, too, crossed the Rubicon on China?

In December 2022, the Japanese government revised three state documents regarding national defense. These revisions would allow the Japanese state to allocate 2% of its national GDP to the defense budget by the year 2027, effectively doubling the national defense budget in five years. As Takeuchi predicted, the US and Japan are cooperating on all fronts to formulate the framework for a NATO-like military alliance in East Asia. At Camp David in August of last year, the US moved to include South Korea in a trilateral alliance network. In November of last year, the leaders of the US, Japan and the Philippines held a summit in Washington, DC, where they criticized China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.

In a speech addressing the US Congress last week, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio emphasized that Japan was the US’ “global partner.” On April 11 and 12, the US, South Korea and Japan conducted joint naval exercises in the East China Sea, which is directly above Taiwan. According to press releases published by the US Indo-Pacific Command and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, the exercises involved large-scale anti-submarine drills and deployed the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and three US destroyers, Japan’s Ariake-class destroyer, and South Korea’s ROKS Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong Aegis-equipped destroyer. On April 6 and 7, the US, Japan, the Philippines and Australia conducted joint exercises in the South China Sea.

The US’ strategy is clear. The US-South Korea-Japan trilateral alliance will respond to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait while the quadrilateral alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines will respond to any threats in the South China Sea. As the key ally backing up the US in the Indo-Pacific, Japan lies at the crux of this strategy. The US-Japan alliance is no longer just a slogan. It is now a military partnership with the ability to steer global affairs. It is also a sign that the US will make increasing demands of South Korea in the days to come.

In hindsight, it’s clear that Japan had been preparing itself to cross the Rubicon. At that point, Tokyo had already made a resolution. But what about Korea? Faced with such a colossal problem, the strategy of balanced foreign affairs and not rocking the boat are more important than ever. Yet the Yoon administration has unwittingly steered us in one direction. If we attempt to turn back now, the country will look foolish. Yet if we continue in our current trajectory, we’ll be torn apart. Between a rock and a hard place. The country is in a precarious situation.


I think I can safely predict that the results of confronting China in East Asia with a US directed, NATO like structure, ad hoc, rickety and dangerous as it appears to be, is unlikely to advance the interests of the participants. One might look to the current state of US Nato expansion efforts in Ukraine as an omen of things to come. How beneficial was that for Europe?

It was Shinzo Abe's goal to make Japan great again. I've read accounts that suggested the Indo-Pacific strategy in the South China Sea was his idea. I guess Kishida will attempt to carry out the offensive armaments buildup of Japan, without bothering to amend the constitution. The Kyodo news article tries to characterize Kishida as a "dovish moderate." What nonsense.




Added 4.24



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