Notes on Kim Jong-un's Victory Day speech published at KCNA Watch.

I noticed a couple of things about Kim Jong-un's speech published at KCNA Watch. Most notably:

"I have already made it clear that we should be ready both for talks and confrontation and more fully for confrontation in particular in order to reliably guarantee the security of our state."

Criticism of the new Yoon Seok-yeol administration in South Korea, in Kim Jong-un's speech is not too far off the mark. How does one strike a nuclear North Korea preemptively with conventional forces? There is no conventional military solution to the unresolved war in North Korea. South Korea is conventionally superior. North Korea compensates for its relative weakness with new missile designs capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Yoon's openly provocative approach to the North is off the mark. Yet, North Korea has itself to blame because it conducted extensive missile testing during the South Korean presidential campaign earlier this year, lending credibility to Yoon's outdated and impractical cold war approach. This contributed to Yoon's election victory by a razor thin margin, substantially comprised of the overwhelming vote in favor of Yoon by the elderly (over 60 voters).

Another portion of the speech that directly deals with "nuclear weapons" threats:

They are brazen-faced enough to advocate "peace based on strength" and "security based on strength," and have put up a bold front, claiming that they would not hesitate in launching a "preemptive strike" to neutralize the war deterrent of our state.

At this very moment, south Korea is growing more frantic to develop weapons and strengthen its defence industry in a bid to recover, even a little, its military inferiority as compared with ours, and it is planning to bring in nuclear strategic weapons of the United States in large numbers and expanding war drills under various pretexts.

However, we should see that the more frequent vainglorious remarks and various hues of shameful conducts recently made by the south Korean authorities with regard to their security come from their inevitable sense of uneasiness that they have to live under the very nose of a nuclear state.

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1659013975-413691703/respected-comrade-kim-jong-un-makes-speech-at-celebration-of-69th-anniversary-of-great-victory-in-war/

It's interesting that the AP article on the Victory Day "speech" finds it necessary to refer back to an April speech to find more threatening remarks from the North Korean leader. I tend to agree with the analysis of this Korean Herald article:

No saber-rattling for N.Korea ‘Victory Day,’ but US repeats warning over nuke test
By Ji Da-gyum
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220727000697

North Korea held a politically charged event to mark its “Victory Day” in the Korean War, though its celebrations were notably absent of saber rattling and bellicose rhetoric from the country’s leader.

Last comment: This remark was made by academic expert quoted in the AP article:

.“Kim’s rhetoric inflates external threats to justify his militarily focused and economically struggling regime...”

Kim threatens to use nukes amid tensions with US, S. Korea
By HYUNG-JIN KIM
https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-seoul-south-korea-nuclear-weapons-e285be60ef404092fe3324748fa60707

The same can certainly be said for the struggling Yoon Seok-yeol administration in the south, which is remarkably absent of any meaningful policies to address the current economic hardships there. Yoon's policies thus far consist of red baiting, persecuting political rivals, constructing an authoritarian state, pursuing privatization of state assets, and blindly deferring to US and Japanese policy. He is widely regarded as an amateur statesmen. The prior administration's policy toward North Korea might be summarized as putting South Korean national interests first while strengthening its military and the alliance with the US. The Yoon faction's policy might summarized as a default mode opting for outdated cold war rhetoric and unilateral concessions to the US and Japan damaging to South Korean interests. As one former South Korean four star general put it, "Yoon is driving forward while only looking in the rear view mirror."

South Korean police resist return to the past

(Source- MBC News, 7.24) Police Chief Ryu Sam-yeong, Ulsan Central District Police Commander. organized a meeting of senior police officials to publicly oppose the Yoon Seok-yeol administration's move to subject the National Police Agency to direction, supervision, and management by the Ministry of Interior and Safety. This is a relationship that prevailed during the dictatorship period of South Korean governance and was eliminated by legislation in 1991 making the National Police Agency an independent non-political organization. Ryu said:

"Such a move is unacceptable. That's the gist of it. A return to the mistakes of the past, is clearly what this talk is about. During the prior era when the Command of the National Police was within to the Ministry of Interior, many democratic martyrs were sacrificed at the hands of police. Why was it like that? Because the police were subordinated to the political power of the Ministry."

"The establishment of a new police bureau doesn't act a restraint on police power, rather it is the opposite of restraint. Retraint must be democratic in nature. Now, It is the National Police Committee that operates as a check on the police institutionally. If that is insufficient, upgrade it, ensure its members are politically independent, realizing true contraint must be realized democratically. However, to remove this system of democratically accepted regulation of the police by the National Police Committee, is to impose ministerial control. This is far from the customary democratic practice."

Commanders and other ranking police officials who participated in the Police Commanders Meeting July 23 were swiftly subjected to disciplinary procedures by the Interior Ministry. Reportedly, 50 officers attended the meeting directly, and more online. Later, it was reported that hundreds of officers sent Mugunghwa floral wreaths in support of the meeting. Commander Ryu was informed he was removed from his post on the way home from the meeting and to clear his personal effects from his office. It was later clarified by the presidential office chief that Ryu faces expulsion from the police force.

The Minister of the Interior and Safety, Lee Sang-min, claimed Ryu had violated a prohibition on gathering an assembly of public employees but was unable to specificy the specific law violated. The officers met off duty and traveled at their own expense. He characterized Ryu's action as an unconstitutional coup d'etat. This was an interesting reversal as it is the change in government organization by executive fiat without legislation that is unconstitutional according to those opposed to the move by the presidential office. The minister was questioned at a legislative hearing if a meeting of attorneys (a reference to a meeting called by Yoon as prosecutor general to defy the authority of the Minister of Justice?) had been illegal. Lee Sang-min denied this. Then he was asked if private assemblies of prosecutors for meetings were prohibited. "That's different" was the response. On a police social media net an officer asked, "Is a meeting of the National Public Prosecutors Association illegal?".

Prosecution reform legislation passed during the previous session of the National Assembly removed the monopoly of investigative powers from the Public Prosecutors Offices and transferred those investigation powers to police agencies. The effort by the Yoon government to subject the National Police Agency to the control of the Ministry of Interior and Safety is regarded as an attack on the independence and political neutrality of police offices and a "Chu Doo-hwan like" effort to subject police nationally to a an oppressive political monopoly dominated by President Yoon's office.

Another meeting of lesser ranking supervisory police personnel in support of those higher ranking officers subject to review or discipline concerning the July 23 meeting is scheduuled for July 30.


"대기발령 오히려 잘됐다" 류삼영 총경 작심 인터뷰
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2WCWSk0xOY

Yoon's dose of reality

Don't think much of the Moon Jae-in weak on defense talking point. It's simply not true. The South Korean military budget grew substantially during the Moon administration and new weapon systems were produced including their own domestically produced fighter aircraft. Moon is currently more popular than president Yoon. Confusing diplomacy with weakness is the major fault of those who don't understand Korean politics. Yoon resorted to classic cold war tactics, red baiting the former administration and talking "tough" about other countries in Madrid. This done primarily as a means to avoid his total lack of a competent domestic policy. Foreseeably to all but Yoon and his "advisors," his approval rating went further into the dumpster. Almost two thirds of the South Korean public disapprove of the Yoon administration's performance thus far, setting a South Korean record for a South Korean administration so early in its term. Put another way, South Korean adults who disapprove of Yoon's governance outnumber those who approve roughly two to one. For the first time since the presidential campaign, support for the democratic party has risen above that of the so called Peoples Power Party (PPP).

Rather than getting belligerent as it stupidly did during the South Korean presidential campaign with all its missile testing, North Korea, would do better to do nothing militarily. The North should forget about ICBM tests and nuclear testing and let the Yoon administration self destruct from its own incompetence and authoritarian tendencies which are seen for what they are in South Korea, a diversion from bad governance. No doubt there are desperate circumstances prompting the North to do the wrong thing. Their last warning seemed to be looking for an opening somewhere, somehow, with the US, which won't yield any "daylight" at all.

A few hours after I made observations similar in nature to those above, I learned that the Yoon administration, had just earlier, concerned about the negative public opinion response to their red baiting of the Moon administration, and the attempt to cast former Moon administration officials as jong buk or bal jengies (communist sympathizers) by reexamining two defector incidents that took place during Moon's administration, suddenly announced a "new" policy toward North Korea. This "new" approach, which to the uniformed might look more attractive than Yoon's diplomatic blundering to date, is actually, dressing up the same old conservative ideas, disguised as something that looks like a "Sunshine Policy" or "Spring has come." Chiefly, the new policy is about changing the human rights picture in North Korea, opening up the North to South Korean communications, supporting their economy if the North gets rid of its nuclear resources and weapons, rejoining separated families, cultivating a homogeneous Korean identity, etc. Getting information into North Korea, whether by broadcasting or balloons, is never going to be effective and only serve to provoke North Korea. I won't dismiss humanitarian or environmental overtures. However, any package seeking to "open up" North Korea, or normalize relations, that starts with human rights or free communications is doomed from the outset. At least one well known conservative politician in South Korea knows this. Likewise, getting North Korea to give up nuclear reactors or weapons, up front, is going nowhere. The way one gets change in North Korea is to do business with North Korea first. Save the propaganda for the amateurs like VOA Korea who are just in the business of maintaining hostility and precluding negotiations at all costs.

The observation has been raised that perhaps there are some unspoken regrets (in the Yoon camp) about the scale of the upcoming summer military exercises with the US, and the possibility that they might provoke a nuclear test in North Korea rather than deter one. That in turn creates the crisis of how to respond. What kind of response could be expected from the US already in a confrontation with Russia over the war in Ukraine, with the midterm elections facing the democrats in the US. What would be the impact of such a nuclear test on the South Korean stock market? With the economic situation in South Korea on the rocks, does South Korea really need to escalate security tensions with North Korea? So all of sudden from Yoon and the Unification Minister, we hear proposals that sound like Sunshine policy but definitely aren't.

Direct tie between Yoon's office and goon squad harassment of retired president?

(Source- 서울의소리 Voice of Seoul youtube 7.12)
욕설 패륜 유튜버 안정권 친누나 '안수경' 대통령 홍보수석실 근무 확인*

Principal in the organization of demos outside former president Moon Jae-in's private residence in Yangsan is radical social media performer, Ahn Jeong-gwan. His sister works in the PR office of President Yoon Seok-yeol. Some of the demonstrators appear to have been taegguki paramilitary types. The demos are characterized by foul language and libelous accusations broadcast at high volume on loudspeakers in excess of local noise ordinances. Lawsuits on behalf of residents in the commuunity filed in court reported that local residents could not sleep and were suffering adverse psychological effects. Police have restricted the demonstrations after the demonstraters continued to violate time and sound limits on their activities. Yoon publicly defended their activities. Ironically, Yoon tried almost immediately after his inauguration to prohibit assemblies entirely on Itaewanno in front of the newly designated presidential office on the Yongsan military base.The court struck down the prohibition in favor of reasonable time, place and manner restrictions.

Yoon's comment supporting the demonstrators' "rights" in Yangsan outside Moon Jae-in's home, had a vindictive quality implying that if people can demonstrate near his office or residence, then demonstrators should be able to violate time, place and mannr restrictions placed on them by local ordinances enforced by police and court relative to the former president's community. A few of Yoon's own party members have expressed disapproval of the Yangsan demonstrations (including Prime Minister Han Duk-soo). There is simply no comparison between the lawful behavior of the limited demonstrations outside the presidential office venue and the raucus, vulgar and invasive behavior in the former president's community. There police initiated restrictions on demonstrators when they failed to comply with local laws. (Korea Times reported 7.13 that democratic supporters of Moon Jae-in have been conducting noisy demonstrations near Yoon's private luxury apartment building in Seocho, Seoul, and residents there have complained about the loud noise.) Former military members with training in pscyhological warfare or other related training will recognize the sleep deprivation, sound abuse tactics used by the demonstrators in Yangsan. So did the court. Representatives of Yoon's office denied a presidential office connection to the radical video streamer Ahn Jeong-gwan; but pictures of him and his sister have been published connecting her to the far right youtube attention seeker. The presidential office stated his activities were not related to her official duties. After the denials there was a report that she tendered her resignation.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ5Z7yAUhUo&t=39s

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 7.12)
Yoon's disapproval rating of 60.8 percent reaches new high, according to KSOI poll for July 8-9. Support for Yoon reaches new low.

Update 7.13- This Voice of Seoul report shows a picture of Yoon's presidential office employee sitting with her brother Ahn Jeong-hwan as invited guests at President Yoon's inauguration ceremony on the grounds of the National Assembly undermining the credibility of presidential office denials of any connection to the offensive nature of demonstrations near Moon Jae-in's private home.

'서울의소리 계정 폭파 배후' 안정권 누나, 대통령실 근무 사실 알려진지 하루만에 사표
'대통령실 "안 씨, 안정권 활동 관여 사실 없다" 주장.. 하지만 안정권, 대통령 취임식 특별 초청장 받기도해'
윤재식 기자 | 기사입력 2022/07/13 [01:26]
http://amn.kr/41982

Update 7.14 Allegedly, the tie to Presidential Office was established through Kim Gon-hee. Ahn Jeong-gwan had been done promotional work and video for Yoon with Kim Gon-hee's "aunt" who allegedly is a minister. The latter produced a video The Lord's Person about Yoon Seok-yeol. Ahn and his sister had a number of youtube channels (promoting Yoon). On one of these channels a private black and white photo of Yoon and his wife apppeared purportedly showing them at their wedding May 18, 2012. 5.18 of course, is the commemoration day for the Gwangju massacre.
안정권 누나와 김건희의 충격적인 관계
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baF3BC5CoTg

Is it real or is it memorex?

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 7.10) 국민대에 'YuJi 논문' 회의록 제출 명령

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-XxuyCdYLY

Polling "deathcross" in President Yoon's public approval/disapproval rating?

(Source-언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 7.4; 2찍 국민들의 늦은 후회...) South Korean public surveys agree that President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating (blue lines) took a dive during his visit to Madrid, while his disapproval rating (red lines) rose to over 50 percent in most surveys. This is being evaluated as a "death cross" by opposition political analysts and ostensibly presages a rocky road ahead for the right wing president.

Leading reasons for Yoon's rising disapproval include poor personnel choices by the new administration and failure to monitor the conditions citizens face during a rocky economic period. The high disapproval rating is unprecedented for a newly elected president in the post dictatorship period of South Korea. Yoon's election margin on March 9, 2022, of .7 percent was the smallest in South Korea election history. The most detailed polling data noted that high declines in approval percentages were observed in the oldest (over 70) voters and also in the Taegu area. These two demographics are still both regarded as strongholds of conservative support.