The implications of a Yoon Seok-yeol presidency in South Korea

A recent article in Responsible Statecraft, by Daniel Larison, examined the foreign policy implications of a possible Yoon Seok-yeol election to the presidency this March 9:

The South Korean presidential election next month will have significant implications for both U.S. and South Korean foreign policies.

Depending on which candidate wins next month, South Korean foreign policy could become considerably more hawkish and combative toward both North Korea and China. If conservative opposition candidate Yoon Suk-yeol prevails, a renewed emphasis on North Korea’s denuclearization and a rejection of the engagement policy of the Moon administration threaten to undo all the gains of the last several years and put the U.S. and South Korea back on the path to heightened tensions and a new crisis on the peninsula. If the Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung wins, there is likely to be much more continuity in South Korean policy, but that could also mean increased friction with a Biden administration that seems to have little interest in resolving outstanding disputes with the North. No matter who wins, the U.S. will need to manage its relationship with Seoul more carefully and attentively than it has done in recent years.

After elections, South Korea could become more hawkish, combative; Daniel Larison Feb. 14, 2021, Responsibe Statecraft;
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/14/after-elections-south-korea-could-become-more-hawkish-combative/

Pretty straightforward analysis of the foreign policy implications of the March 9 presidential election. By limiting itself to foreign policy, the dicey issues of Yoon's politicization of the administration of justice in South Korea are avoided. His family's alleged financial corruption is also avoided.

Few people are willing to examine the circumstances surrounding investigations and prosecutions particularly involving political figures or major financial scandals in South Korea. Most media take the results of investigation and judicial outcomes at face value without questioning them. The truth is administration of justice in South Korea under Yoon's tutelage as prosecutor general became even more politicized and arbitrary than under the two previous authoritarian administrations. Legal reforms limiting prosecution offices' authority to investigate were implemented in 2021 by the democratic super majority legislature. Yoon has indicated his intent to void such reforms, and further to make the office of Prosecutor General independent of any outside control by the Justice Ministry or any independent body such as the Gongsujeo (office for investigation of crimes by high government officials).

Yoon's statements and those of his wife in regard to their critics and political rivals suggest an intent to retaliate against any judges, prosecutors, journalists or politicians who advocate that investigations of alleged corruption by Yoon's offices, colleagues, or family members need to proceed rather than be stuck in limbo as they have during his tenure as Prosecutor General, and now again, during the presidential campaign.

Yoon has stated an intent to investigate and prosecute outgoing President Moon Jae-in, although he never specified what the charges might be. He has also accused presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of corruption during the Daejangdong real estate scandal without a shred of evidence. Current reports in independent media in South Korea suggest that those under investigation are virtually all from the conservative side of the house associated with the former Park Geun-hye administration.

Yoon allegedly recently authored an article in Foreign Policy. One must seriously doubt he is capable of writing such an article, in spite of its slavish adherence to US and Japanese agendas. He has no foreign policy experience whatsoever. He has never been elected to public office. His statements suggest he will return South Korea to a quisling semicolonial status under the direction of the US and Japan if he is elected. The corruption of the republic and the return to authoritarianism will be virtually assured by his election. Yoon's politically problematic presidential campaign is a red flag suggesting that descriptions of South Korea as a "resilient democracy" in western media are more of a myth than fact.

South Korea: Presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's Shaman Risk

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 2.12.22) This graphic shows "Heaven's teacher," on the left, one of Yoon Seok-yeol's shamanist advisors. On the right is cult leader Lee Man-hui, who was arrested by the Moon administration for lack of cooperation with public health laws which resulted in much of the early spread of covid 19 in South Korea. Recent disclosures by a defector from the cult's management indicate that cult members play an active role in recruiting supporters for Yoon's presidential campaign. "With Shamanists and Sincheonji behind him will you give (Yoon) your support?"

This is from TK's The Blue Roof website concerning Yoon Seok-yeol's shaman risk* :

The highly anticipated recorded phone calls of Kim Geon-hee 김건희, wife of the People Power Party presidential candidate Yun Seok-yeol 윤석열 국민의힘 대선 후보, were full of lowlights. Over the course of nearly eight hours’ worth of phone calls with a journalist whom she had imagined to be sympathetic, Kim spoke freely on the #metoo movement (“Conservatives don’t have #metoo issues because they pay money”) and her plans for adversarial journalists if she enters the Blue House 청와대 (“The police will arrest them whether we tell them to or not”). But in this target-rich environment, one comment by Kim drew the most attention. Denying the rumors that she was previously a high-end hostess with the stage name of Julie (see previous coverage, “The Spousal Risk”), Kim said: “I hate nightclubs - they’re too loud. I’m a spiritual person. I’d rather be reading and chatting with shamans 도사들 about life.” In other parts, Kim also said she would move the State Guest House 영빈관 of the Blue House, because a shaman had advised her to do so.

*Shamans: Yun Seok-yeol Cannot Quit Them
Persistent and long-standing connections with superstition is becoming the Yun campaign's greatest liability.
TK 10 February 2022
https://www.blueroofpolitics.com/p/shamans-yun-seok-yeol-cannot-quit-them/

I recommend the article for a good summary of the shaman risk, such at it is, to Yoon's campaign and the future of South Korea's democracy.  The web site is free but you have to register. T.K., maybe the leading US interpreter of South Korea's domestic politics, suggests that Yoon's superstitious reliance on guru or shaman advisors is the greatest risk to his campaign. Is this greatest risk or the risk allowed to enter the public domain by the gatekeepers of the media in Korea and the US? The truth is the greatest risk is the list of alleged criminal acts by Yoon's family. In the same vein, has been Yoon's politicization of his former prosecution positions to coverup financial scandals and attack political rivals. T.K. doesn't go there, as some South Korean pundits do, because it impugns the democratic reputation of South Korea. Democracy and the rule of law in South Korea are under a sustained assault by the legacy media, corporate interests, and corrupt politicians, as the presidential race enters its final weeks.

The administration of justice and the democratic process in South Korea seem beyond salvation after Yoon's reign as the Prosecutor General. A disciplinary board found Yoon had politicized the office, interfered in investigations, and unlawfully investigated sitting judges. Yoon tried to block the disciplinary findings with an injunction, and left office before a higher court sustained the disciplinary sanctions and remarked that Yoon could have suffered dismissal from office for his professional violations of ethics, rather than just a two month suspension. I've written at length elsewhere of the allegations, investigations, and court cases involving Yoon, his family, and his political victims. T.K. generally avoids "deep  dives" on these subjects and takes the prosecutor's decisions and court judgements at face value.  He described Yoon as "center right" which is simply misleading, he is a far right candidate, and, if elected, will return South Korea to authoritarian rule, if not an outright dictatorship. However, in mainstream media in South Korea and the west, it will still be described as a democratic society sharing our "values."

언알바 has pointed out that for every article even mildly critical of Yoon Seok-yeol in South Korean mainstream media that six articles are published with essentially baseless accusations against the democratic presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung.  In this sense, the South Korean political process is already severely corrupted.  The 언알바 pundit suggests that debates and further adverse disclosures are unlikely to have any impact whatever on the election chances of Yoon Seok-yeol .  Every gaffe, mistake, and adverse report concerning Yoon is either ignored, spun, or otherwise soft pedaled by the Korean legacy media to excuse Yoon.  Yoon Seok Yeol is clearly unsuited for presidential office and it isn't just his superstitious belief in the flying wizards who advise him or his penchant for "so mek" boilermakers.

The conservative Korean Times has described Sincheonji, ostensibly a "church," as a fringe sect. The quotes below are from The World internet site:

“Shinchonji is the only path to God,” Lee tells me. “There is only one shepherd who is with Jesus and God and sends the words of Jesus and heaven.”

“You have to meet the shepherd,” Lee (Ki-won) says.

The shepherd that he is talking about is Lee Man-hee, the founder of Shinchonji...

“...Shinchonji people believe that he will live forever,” says J-il Tark of Busan Presbyterian University, referring to Lee Man-hee.

Tark is an expert on heretical Christian groups, and he says Shinchonji is one of the most prominent of them in South Korea today. Korean Christians are “strongly against Shinchonji,” Tark says.

That's because the believers of Shinchonji, “are attacking the core belief of Christianity,” Tark says, by equating their founder with the second coming of Jesus. That, he adds, puts Shinchonji far outside of the Christian mainstream.

*This apocalyptic Korean Christian group goes by different names. Critics say it's just a cult.
The World, July 11, 2017 · 8:00 AM EDT, By Matthew Bell
https://theworld.org/stories/2017-07-11/apocalyptic-korean-christian-group-goes-different-names-critics-say-its-just-cult

Yoon is supported by other far right fundamentalist Christian churches, such as the Jaeil Sarong Church of demogogue Jeon Gwang-hun.

Reaction to Political Crossroads article by Gregory Erlich

Gregory Erlich has written a brilliant article published in the Counterpunch February 8 issue, Is Korea Heading Toward a Political Crossroads?* Anyone who is interested in Korean affairs and the geopolitical situation in northeast Asia should read it. There is so much distortion in the established media concerning international relations, Erlich's clarity and insights are refreshing. The article provoked some general thoughts on the situation in South Korea with the presidential election results just a month away.

* https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/02/08/is-korea-heading-toward-a-political-crossroads/

President Moon Jae-in came from a poor family that emigrated from North Korea. He’s pretty much a card carrying orthodox Catholic. He was a human rights lawyer, worked with No Moo-hyun and then participated in his presidential administration.

It’s fair to observe that the latter part of Moon's administration has been stalled somewhat since the US-DPRK fiasco at Hanoi, and that the US pressured South Korea to give up on Moon’s tangible North Korean economic, and cultural initiatives. The US threatened South Korea with sanctions. The so called US envoy to North Korea turned out to be the South Korea control officer.

Domestically other reforms that Moon might have achieved were foreclosed by the pandemic, and the social and economic challenges associated with that. He came through it pretty well, at around a 40 percent public approval rating, more popular than any other president of South Korea in the post dictatorship period near the end of his administration. His social agenda stalled somewhat after some attempted reforms of excessive prosecutorial powers even after his party took a filibuster proof majority in the National Assembly in April 2020.

Moon eschewed the more tangible national security issues as much as he could during the current electoral campaign season for obvious reasons. He’s allowed the US to put boilerplate about the Taiwan strait and the Indo-Pacific in joint statements. In spite of this, I believe he’s actually conceded as little as possible. There is a significant portion of his party that is decidedly neo-liberal and is responsible for the inertia in social policy. Lee Nak-yon the prime minister during this period was pretty conservative. Fortunately Lee Nak-yon lost in the recent democratic presidential primaries to “populist” Lee Jae-myung who is both more competent and more progressive.

The problems in South Korean governance were only beginning to be recognized after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. It will take a consistent determined effort to root out the deep-seated corrupt special interests, to which a good number of lawyers, doctors, journalists and politicians belong. It isn’t just the usual corporate suspects. If the democrats fail to win the presidential election in March, the country will go down the authoritarian road again and conduct itself as a US puppet internationally.

US attempted dominance of Moon’s administration is akin to the Japanese protectorate period 1905-1910 right before the outright Japanese annexation of Korea. South Korea must carve out more room for maneuver diplomatically, improve relations with its other half, maintain a positive relationship with China, and reduce the US footprint on its military and foreign policy. ( Are South Korea's relations with North Korea really foreign policy? )

South Korea on a GDP basis contributes more to its own defense than all other US allies. Nevertheless, a reduced US military presence in Northeast Asia and South Korea in particular needs to be associated with some sort of new diplomatic relationship between North Korea and the US. That would be the right way to do it. The current sanctions regime and hostile regime change relationship promoted by the US is untenable really. Americans need to start thinking of Korea as a national entity, rather than some military staging area or springboard in a war with North Korea or China. The latter US military perspective is just delusional at this point but has been so deeply engrained over seventy years.

夢

More: The major western media such as the Washington Post attempt to portray both South Korean major presidential candidates as politicians engaged in dirty campaign tactics. This is to deliberately mislead the English speaking world. It is the conservative candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, who is decidedly corrupt as well as incompetent. As Erlich points out, he is clearly the candidate favored by the US. Yoon is an authoritarian figure accustomed to giving orders. He appears under the undue political influence of shamanists and his vindictive and deceitful spouse. Kim Gon-hee has changed her identity and her physical appearance before marrying Yoon. She has also falsified her academic and career credentials. A Korean court has dismissed an injunction application seeking to block disclosures about her private life because she is a public figure as the presidential candidate's wife, and her background is a matter of legitimate public interest.

Ill informed Yoon did poorly in the first televised debate the other night and is obviously trying to avoid further debates and public embarrassment (edit 2.12.21) however, three public debates are required by law. It was obvious that he was the least competent leader in the room. Perhaps this is what the west desires. Accusations that the democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung is corrupt as well are simply false. During the time when Yoon was Prosecutor General, and earlier, Yoon's "brigade" in prosecutors' offices, after extensive investions and criminal litigation against Lee, failed to produce a conviction. When Yoon tried to link Lee to the Daejangdong real estate scandal, Lee correctly pointed out not one speck of evidence has been uncovered to link him to any corruption despite years of investigation and litigation. Yet, the same could not be said for Yoon Seok-yeol or his family. The corrupt media and justice administration in South Korea have stalled, derailed, dismissed or postponed investigations of Yoon and his family members successfully over the years. Current cases are being held in abeyance for fear that Yoon may return to power and take revenge on government officials, independent journalists, and others who have uncovered evidence of Yoon's family corruption.

If I Leave

나 가거든.. 명성황후 Empress Meongsang OST
Lyrics Kang Eun-kyeong, Composition Lee Kyeong-shim, Original artist: Sumi Jo

쓸쓸한 달빛 아래
Below the still moonlight
내 그림자 하나 생기거든
My shadow emerges!
그땐 말해볼까요 이 마음
Shall it tell of that time?
들어나 주라고
Listen to this heart
문득 새벽을 알리는
Aware of sudden daybreak
그 바람 하나가 지나거든
Should that momentary desire pass
그저 한숨쉬듯 물어볼까요
As if taking a breathe, shall I inquire?
나는 왜 살고 있는지
Why am I living?

나 슬퍼도 살아야 하네
Even though sad, I must live,
나 슬퍼서 살아야 하네
Even though sad, I must live
이 삶이 다 하고 나야 알텐데
This life, I must give it all to know
내가 이 세상을 다녀간 그 이율
the reason I spent time in this world,
나 가고 기억하는 이
Upon my leave, remember this-
나 슬픔까지도 사랑했다 말해주길
Even though there was sadnesss, I'll say I loved
흩어진 노을처럼
like the red sky of the setting sun,
내 아픈 기억도 바래지면
If my hurtful memories also fade
그땐 웃어질까요 이 마음
Then, shall I laugh? This heart
그리운 옛일로
longing for the past
저기 홀로선 별 하나
That sole star over there
나의 외로움을 아는건지
Knows my loneliness
차마 날 두고는 떠나지 못해
Please, don't leave me here alone
밤새 그 자리에만
Overnight, only in this place.

나 슬퍼도 살아야 하네
Even though sad, I must go on living,
나 슬퍼서 살아야 하네
Even though sad, I must go on living,
이 삶이 다 하고 나야 알텐데
This life, I must give it all to know
내가 이 세상을 다녀간 그 이율
the reason I spent time in this world
나 가고 기억하는 이
Upon my leave, remember this-
내 슬픔까지도 사랑하길 우우
Even though there is sadness, I will love...oh...oh

부디 먼 훗날
Please, in the days long after
나 가고 슬퍼하는 이
this my sad passing..
나 슬픔속에도 행복했다 믿게
Even though I was sad at heart, believe I was happy.

Hangul lyrics Source: Musixmatch

My own translation, a work in progress. Other lyrics translations of this famous song depicting Empress Meongsang's reflections upon her tragic death by assassination (by the Japanese) appeared to be google AI or something like it. I could be wrong, this is my interpretation. The mournful tune is a metaphor for Korea's tragic modern history.

Han Dong-hun's hand phone- an encryption problem or political problem?

Jang Yong-jin TV Midnight News reports* that Han Dong-hun's handphone which is likely to reveal communications between presidential candidtate Yoon Seok-yeol's wife and his right hand prosecutor (and alleged political fixer) has not yet been sent to Israel for password decryption because of "technical problems." The prosecution offices investigating the so called Channel A News scandal have stalled the investigation. In the case, one of the Channel A reporters, Lee Dong-jae, recruited by Han, allegedly attempted to inveigle a prisoner convicted of financial crimes to incriminate former democratic minister and political pundit Yoo Shi-min. Reporter Jang alleges that this is a political problem rather than a technical problem in the current Prosecutor General's office. The investigating prosecutors had nolle prossed the case against Lee, but a final disposition awaits the forensic examination of Han's phone. Prosecutor General Kim Oh-soo, who succeeded presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol to the office, has the political "noon chi" ( 눈치 ) or sense to know the evidence on Han's phone is likely to adversely affect Yoon's campaign for the presidential office.

*For any officials or reporters looking at this, here's the original video title from youtube, if you want to examine its contents: [장용진TV/오밤중NEWS] 한동훈 핸드폰 포렌식, 왜 중단됐나? / 김만배, 윤석열 보낼 카드는 뭐? Streamed live on Feb 2, 2022; For the opposite political take on the Channel A News "matter," see:
검찰, 한동훈 폰 포렌식 중단… 이스라엘에 안보냈다 Munhwa Ilbo Dec. 30, 2021; http://www.munhwa.com/news/view.html?no=2021123001070903347001


Why does the current Minister of Justice, Park Beom-kye, tolerate this stalling tactic by the prosecutor general? Jang Yong-jin says that Park is calculating his own individual political advantage rather than acting as a part of the democratic administration that appointed him. Virtually all the pending or potential criminal investigations and current litigation related to Yoon Seok-yeol, his family, or his political victims, have been determined, reversed, delayed, or otherwise politically neutralized in light of the presidential political campaign of Yoon Seok-yeol. South Korea's prosecutors, investigators, judges and other officials, public and private, fear the political retribution of Yoon Seok-yeol, should his network of chaebol (corporate magnates), mainstream media, and prosecutors, judges and other officials achieve unchallengeable power as a result of the upcoming March 9 presidential elections. It's a potential dictatorship in the making. Those who undertake judicial, investigative, or administrative measures now that would potentially be seen by the vindictive Yoon and his wife as threatening their power, will experience retribution from their political machine metastasizing within the administration of justice and the conservative mainstream, Cho-Joong-Dong media cartels. The electoral process in South Korea is to that extent already seriously corrupted.

It's important to note that discussion of this political problem in South Korea is not some "conspiracy theory." A record of Han Dong-hun's discussions with the Channel A reporter (a Dong A media property) was already disclosed in independent media. Subsequently, the courts threw out the seizure of the reporter's phone claiming it was unlawfully executed. Compare this to the treatment of the illegal seizure of professor Chung Kyung-shim's personal computer by the courts which was seized from a secured storage area on campus in a successful effort to depose the reform minded former Justice Minister Cho Guk by indicting his wife. This process against Cho Guk's family was instigated while Yoon was prosecutor general. Also, in her recent "7 hours" plus of recorded phone conversations, Yoon's wife, Kim Gon-hee, disclosed her vindictive nature and desire to seek revenge on critics and opponents, should she "gain power." She offered to make the reporter "her person" by paying him one hundred million won. She also admitted to the interviewing reporter that she spoke to prosecutor Han Dong-hun often.

For background on the Channel A News Scandal:

South Korea's Press-Prosecution Collusion Scandal: the audio transcript, July 23, 2020;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/07/south-koreas-press-prosecution.html

Seoul Judge Cancels Lee Dong-jae Search Warrant, July 26, 2020;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/07/south-koreas-press-prosecution.html

South Korea: Press- Prosecution collusion affair- the cast, August 3, 2020;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/08/south-korea-press-prosecution-collusion.html

See also:

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol suspended for 2 months by Discipline Committee, Dec. 15, 2020;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/12/prosecutor-general-yoon-seok-yeol.html
Yoon obtained an injunction to block the disciplinary sanctions against him. Later, an appellate review court, dismissed the injunction as without merit, found the supporting evidencee sufficient to support the sanctions, and commented that the findings were sufficient to support Yoon's dismissal from office rather than just a suspension. This was the second displinary measure taken against Yoon in his legal career. The first was orchestrated by Hwang Kyo-ahn to defuse accusations by Jang Dae-tek that Yoon had interfered in investigation of alleged perjury, forgery and fraud on the court by his mother in law in earlier litigation which resulted in Jang, her former business partner, being imprisoned in connection with a business dispute. Choi Eun-soon, Yoon's mother in law, allegedly unlawfully took Jang's investment, worth in excess of two million dollars. Yoon's wife in the "7 hours" recordings referred to Jang as a "dangerous person."

South Korea: Civil "lawfare" continues in the Administration of Justice, Feb. 7, 2021;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2021/02/south-korea-civil-lawfare-continues-in.html
The blog has over a dozen articles related to former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and the political corruption in the administration of justice in South Korea posted since March 2020.

South Korea's Top Prosecutor Embroiled in Family Scandals, March 15, 2020;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/03/is-yoon-seok-yeol-obstructing.html
법꾸라지- "Legal eel," 법률 과 미꾸라지, a new word formation reflecting the joinder of related persons, information and knowledge, conjoining legal power and skill in use against public order maneuvering like an eel to skillfully screen the persons involved and elude the punishment provided by law. (original source in hangul, Naver.com)