South Korea: Some presidential campaign survey indications

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) Current fitness for presidential office survey among opposition party members in percent surveyed. People's Power Party candidates shown in red. Yoon Seok-yeol, 28.6; Hong Jun-pyo, 20.9; Yoo Seung-min, 9.3; Shim Sang-jung, (Justice Party), 5.5; Choi Jae-hyung, 4.1; Ahn Chul-soo, (independent) 2.8.

The first graphic of survey results above shows that Yoon is receiving a significant challenge from rival presidential candidate Hong Jun-pyo within the People's Power Party. Hong is making significant gains on Yoon's leading position. Hong has in the last few days made disparaging remarks about Yoon's lack of loyalty. One independent publication quoted him saying one "who has betrayed, can betray again." This is reference to Yoon's apparent opportunism. Yoon as prosecutor participated in the impeachment trial effort against former President Park Geun-hye, and lately has indicated that he feels some remorse for his role.

Another perspective might be that Yoon was appointed Prosecutor General by the Moon administration after the Park Geun Hye impeachment process, and then turned against the incumbent administration, in a series of allegedly politically motivated cases, including the prosecutions of the former Blue House secretary and Justice Minister, Cho Guk, and his family. Yoon is placed in a dilemna by Hong's critique, because as a prosecutor he was duty bound to remain impartial in the execution of official duties. A Justice Ministry disciplinary board in December 2020 found that he violated his duty of political impartiality as a public prosecutor in at least one case. This was the so called Channel A News case, aimed at framing former minister and well known democratic political pundit, Yoo Shi-min, for financial crimes.* Yoon could claim he is impartial, and that this is the reason he would support the prosecution of both Park Geun-hye, a conservative, but then later directed investigations and prosecutions of democratic party related figures. That claim won't endear him to some conservatives, still loyal to former president Park. In terms of Yoon's purported upright ethical stance, past and pending investigations of Yoon, his wife, and his mother in law, create the appearance of impropriety, which Hong can exploit in the future. If Hong doesn't get the PPP nomination, he could still run as an independent conservative candidate damaging Yoon's prospects in the final presidential contest.

*See our December 16 addendum to the December 15, 2020, post on this blog: Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol suspended for 2 months by Discipline Committee. See also: Yoon's petition concerning the alleged illegality of the disciplinary committee's actions were recently dismissed by the Constitutional Court on June 24 in a 6-1 decision, as legally insufficient. 윤석열 제기한 '검사징계법 헌법소원', 각하…어떤 뜻? 유영규 기자, SBS 뉴스 6.21; 원본 링크 : https://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N1006367683&plink=COPYPASTE&cooper=SBSNEWSEND; cited in this blog's post: Yoon Seok-yeol "X files" controversy growing, June 28, 2021.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) This graphic displays polling results among democrats (Minjudang) with August weekly results for the two top candidates up to August 21. Lee Jae-myung, a "populist" democrat, the current governor of Gyeonggido (province) is the leader with 46.7 percent over Lee Nak-yon, former party leader, former prime minister, and assembly representative, with 24.0 percent. Chung Sye-kyun, former prime minister and former Assmebly Speaker, with 3.8 percent; and Chu Mi-ae, former justice minister, with 2.7 percent. Chu Mi-ae, seems to be on the stump to make clear that Lee Nak-yon did little to support President Moon's reform agenda in the administration of justice while he was party leader and did little to support her when she was justice minister trying to reign in Yook Seok-yeol's politically biased actions as Prosecutor General. Number 2, Lee Nak-yon is the centrist candidate in the democratic party.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) Results of a hypothetical face off presidential election between democrat Lee Jae-myung, (left) 40.7 percent, and People's Power Party (conservative) candidate, Yoon Seok-yeol, at 45.5 percent (right). Yoon has an overwhelming advantage for the over age sixty voters, and with voters under thirty years old. Lee has made substantial inroads in the preference of voters in their thirties according to this poll. Democrats dominated in the forties and fifties (middle aged) demographic groups in prior elections. Lee's progress with voters in their thirties has to do with his practical proposals for economic development, housing and income support.

An MBN poll shows Lee Jae-myung v. Yoon at 33.3 percent v 37.1 percent respectively, in Yoon's favor. This is approaching the margin of the error so the results thus far are encouraging but still problematic for Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign. On the positive side for Lee are his substanitial policy proposals targeted at economic impacts of the pandemic and the housing shortage. With universal basic income proposals, tax incentives and subsidies on the table he can avoid the trap of simply criticizing his rivals. For this reason he is making some inroads on the 39 and under voter demographic. The 39 and under age groups supported Moon Jae-in's 2017 presidential election and the election of democrats in the National Assembly election in April 2020. But the younger voters swung heavily in favor of conservative candidates who won the their mayoral elections in Seoul and Pusan, in April 2021. Given the commitment of elder voters by a wide margin to the conservative candidate Yoon, seen thus far, the youth vote could still swing the upcoming presidential election in the first week of March 2022 in Yoon's favor.

Another problem for Yoon Seok-yeol is his gaffe-a-day image, which motivated his camp to avoid the scheduled televised policy discussion among prospective PPP candidates for president planned for August. Yoon appears not to have any concrete policy domestically other than opposition to President Moon Jae-in, opposition to legal reforms, and a poorly articulated, super conservative, Milton Friedman approach to economics. Essentially, Yoon represents the vested special interests, and the corporate chaebol that typically run the country behind the scenes. The longer Yoon is off a public platform being questioned by other campaigners the better he is likely to perform in polls. The point is also made in this 언론 알아야 바꾼다 video commentary, concerning the role of the conservative press and uncritical voters, that they were quite able to put a corrupt politician in the presidential office as demonstrated in particular by the election of former president Lee Myung-bak. Lee MB's financial corruption was blatant, but apparently did not receive enough public attention to have any effect on his rise to the Blue House. So the same may be possible for Yoon Seok-yeol, whose alleged corruption and the investigations pending against him are either blatantly ignored by the overwhelmingly conservative media, or treated as politically motivated charges without substance. It remains to be seen how the half dozen or so investigations against Yoon, his wife or mother in law, will turn out, or how they will affect the election process. Any investigation or proceeding, and particularly those against Yoon personally based upon his actions while a prosecutor, are likely to be challenged by his camp and the conservative media on the basis that they are "interference in the free presidential election process," by the incumbent adminstration.

Vice President Kamela Harris in Asia

The intemperate remarks of VP Harris about Chinese "bullying" and "intimidation" in the South China Sea, and their alleged failure to comply with the "rules based order," (whatever that is) reflects poorly on her leadership ability and judgement. I noticed that she dropped the typical rhetoric about "democracy" and "our values," basically the only recognition that she wasn't addressing a US audience. Otherwise, she appeared to be lost in the imaginary world of the DC echo chamber with absolutely no grasp of the history or situation in East Asia. That she would continue with the disastrous course and tone set by Blinken and company in Anchorage, suggests that she is clueless when it comes to foreign policy.

Ostensibly, this entire US approach seeking allies in Southeast Asia against China rests on the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). One has yet to see any American publicly question the soundness or jurisdiction of the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) "compulsory arbitration" decision against China in 2016 purportedly based upon UNCLOS. China had opted out of UNCLOS with respect to the South China Sea disputes ten years earlier. The ITLOS was shepherded by a Japanese diplomat and jurist who had been Japan's former ambassador to Washington. Shunji Yanai, the ITLOS director, appointed four of the five “arbitrators” to the Permanent Court of Arbitration tribunal.* The decision was one sided, and based on little more than illogical reasoning and clever wording. What does one expect in what amounted to default judgement in the absence of the principal party who never acquiesced to jurisdiction? Neither the PRC nor Taiwan recognize the decision. The decision is void for lack of jurisdiction both in terms of process and subject matter. The ITLOs decision on the Philippines maritime dispute with China is a poor decision upon which to stake out international policy.

*News Analysis: Shunji Yanai, manipulator behind illegal South China Sea arbitration (Xinhua) 13:12, July 17, 2016; http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0717/c90000-9087223.html


UNCLOS is inapplicable to "the issues of sovereignty or historic titles and rights." Disputes between states arising before the implementation of the Convention on the Law of the Sea are also not subject to its jurisdiction.* The constant references to the PCA's inapplicable and void UNCLOS based decision in Western media is just one sided advocacy that omits countervailing facts and arguments. The decision is based upon faulty logic and bizarre findings applied to reach a decision unfavorable to China despite the obvious lack of jurisdiction. Among the bizarre findings dismissing Chinese claims to an EEZ in the Spratleys out of existence is the fiction was that Itu Aba (Taiping Island) was "not an island."

*The South China Sea Arbitration (The Philippines v. China): Assessment of the Award on Jurisdiction and Admissibility Sreenivasa Rao Pemmaraju Author Chinese Journal of International Law, Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2016, Pages 265–307, https://doi.org/10.1093/chinesejil/jmw019 Published: 20 June 2016 https://academic.oup.com/chinesejil/article/15/2/265/2548386

It is somewhat telling that the US never even ratified UNCLOS. The UK not too long ago rejected an international tribunal decision on the Chagos Islands, where the US Diego Garcia base is located. No sanctimonious statements on the rejection of the "rules based order" heard on this issue. In geopolitical terms, the US continues to act as a 20th Century hegemon in the western Pacific, and South China Sea. Yet, the region is returning to a more traditional pattern that existed among Asian states and China before the days of "gunboat diplomacy" and the century of humiliation. This is reflected primarily in the "soft" dimension of Chinese economic and diplomatic relationships with its neighbors rather than in the military dimension with which the US is obsessed for domestic reasons. It is up to the states in the region to negotiate their conflicting EEZ claims in the South China Sea. The US so called "Freedom of Navigation" (FON) operations are a wedge to bootstrap US military and commercial interests onto the EEZ claims of neighboring states in the region with the traditional US gunboat approach.

As an elected official, Harris was in a position to exercise her own judgement, apply some diplomatic tact, and speak with restraint and subtlety. Instead, out of ignorance or cynicism, she chose to opt for jingoistic sloganeering to appeal to the "blob" back home. Why would regional Asian states be willing to accept the position of a belligerent US official to the detriment of their own national interests? Why would they be interested in a militarized approach to regional issues promoted by the US, Japan, and Australia, risking military confrontation with their number one trade partner, China? Poorly advised, Harris was sent on a fool's mission, in a manner similar to Wendy Sherman's mission. It is as if, by having US officials overreach themselves internationally on multiple occasions, the US will achieve its objectives. Perhaps Harris thought her trip would enhance her credentials in "foreign affairs," for her next election bid?

"Unleash Japan" Really?

Recently, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson in an interview with Paul Jay,* recommended withdrawing the US nuclear umbrella over Japan, and encouraging them to defend themselves:

(Wilkerson) So, what do you do? Well, if you’re going to be pragmatic and you’re in the Pentagon and you’re thinking about it, you’re going to unleash Japan. You’re going to say to Japan, we no longer guarantee you a nuclear security umbrella. In fact, we no longer feel like the security relationship with you is the way it should be. In other words, we think you should grow up. Think about what China would think about that, how that would change the power calculus in the region. Now, we’ve got an entirely different situation.

Now, China confronts a country that is capable of building a nuclear complex that could outstrip them in a matter of months and it’s no longer hemmed in, controlled, cajoled, kept right, by the United States of America. I’m going back to my conversations with Wang Yi and Cui Tiankai, and with Richard Haass, in 2001, when we did policy planning talks. Restraining Japan is looked at by Beijing, as a plus. Unleash Japan and see how the situation changes in Northeast Asia. This−

Paul Jay
But it makes it more dangerous. (emphasis added)

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson
Maybe, maybe it doesn’t. Maybe it makes a dangerous balance of power, or it creates a balance of power that isn’t there now. The balance is being destroyed by China. China is becoming more powerful than the United States in that regional context.

*The Threat of War (Nuclear) With China – Col. Lawrence Wilkerson By Paul Jay, August 11, 2021; https://theanalysis.news/the-threat-of-war-nuclear-with-china-col-lawrence-wilkerson/


"Unleashing Japan" is the most dangerous idea Wilkerson or any other US policy analyst has proposed in some time. This reveals his insight into Asian geopolitics is superficial. The "who lost China" movement in the fifties was accompanied by the "unleash Chiang Kai-shek" nonsense and US threats of nuclear war against China. So Col. Wilkerson criticizes past policy and then proposes a similar policy approach just as stupid. His recommendation, if adopted, would lead to a similar alignment of imperial Pacific powers in the early 20th Century that led to WWII: the UK, US, and Imperial Japan. Wilkerson's entire analysis during the Paul Jay interview, otherwise more or less sound, is deeply flawed by this one critical delusion. Worse still, Wilkerson proposes abandoning nuclear non-proliferation to restore a "balance of power" he claims no longer exists.

This is the same kind of grave lapse of judgement involved in committing the US to the Iraq war while he served as Secretary of State Colin Powell's chief of staff. If the colonel thinks this is some sort of clever bluff to bring China to the nuclear weapons negotiating table, he is completely ignorant concerning Asian history. An "unleashed Japan" in the early 20th Century accelerated the rise of the communist party in China, whose entire raison d'etre was legitimized by its nationalist role defending the mainland against Japanese imperialism. Any current military action taken by Japan aimed toward China will probably precipitate a general war the scope of which hasn't been seen since WWII. Wilkerson's statement is made in the context of recent public statements by Japanese officials, particularly Taro Aso, encouraged by the US, committing Japan to the defense of Taiwan, a former Japanese colony. Seen in this light, any US adoption of Wilkerson's policy proposal would have dramatically catastrophic consequences for Japan and Taiwan. How could anyone in their right mind publicly propose taking such a dangerous and irresponsible course of action?

The NY Times anti-democratic pro- Japan prejudice toward South Korea continues

This recent NY Times article cited below reveals more anti-democratic, anti-Moon Jae-in prejudice in its editorial policy toward the current South Korean administration:

Vietnam War Victims Wanted Justice. They Were Given ‘30 Bags of Rice.’

South Korean troops were the largest foreign contingent fighting alongside American soldiers during the Vietnam War. They have long been dogged by allegations of brutality.

By Choe Sang-Hun, Aug. 21, 2021

...Nearly a half-century after the war ended, victims of the massacre at Phong Nhi and Phong Nhut are seeking compensation from the Seoul government in the first lawsuit of its kind being tried in a South Korean court.

Stung by shocking testimony, South Korean lawmakers and civic groups are also pushing for a special law to investigate long-held allegations that South Korean troops killed thousands of civilians when they were the largest foreign contingent fighting alongside American soldiers during the war.

more:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/world/asia/vietnam-war-south-korea-massacre.html

Interesting how the NY Times tries to pin this on President Moon Jae-in. The fact is that the US-Japan supported dictator Park Chung-hee is responsible for this episode. The leadership cadre and training of ROK forces was formed early on by those officers, like Park himself, who participated in counter insurgency operations during WWII as Japanese trained members of its occupation forces in Manchuria. The Japanese Army's occupation policy for subjugating Chinese and Korean resistance fighters in North China was "kill all, burn all, destroy all." The Japanese Imperial Army trained Korean officer corps formed the cadre of the ROK Army during the Syngman Rhee dictatorship, as well. The earlier Rhee dictatorship was responsible for similar atrocities against civilian communities in South Korea before and during the Korea War. During the Rhee dictatorship the domestic atrocities were carried out by armed fascist youth league militias with the tacit support of the ROK military cadre trained in Japanese counter insurgency tactics. Some of the atrocities they committed were witnessed by US military officers.

The timing of the article is suspect as well coming so soon after President Moon's speech saying he was open to talks with Japanese leaders to resolve the issue of war crimes by Japan against Koreans during the Pacific War, specifically, the slave labor, and so called "comfort women" issues. Moon said he would like a resolution to take place consistent with international law and standards.

The Times' article implies that the Moon administration is trying to cover up ROK Army war crimes in Vietnam. The South Korean responses could be readily explained by earlier conservative administrations actively covering up their crimes by destroying records. Is the Times suggesting bad faith on the part of the Moon administration? Sure looks like it. Typically, forensic anthropologists and pathologists, have to examine the burial sites, remains, and other evidence of mass killings to determine the truth, because the bad actors, and their influential political supporters, have worked assiduously to cover up their crimes. One can understand the bitter feeling experienced by Vietnamese survivors of ROK Army atrocities. As to the "300 bags of rice," this practice, or something similar to it, is known as a solatia payment in the US Armed Forces, and is pathetically indequate to compensate families whose loved ones have been crippled or killed by the acts of the military. Obviously reconciliation and reparation proceedings are required. They will require cooperation between Vietnam and South Korea.

These issues have been buried indefinitely by South Korean conservative administrations. Fortunately, that's not the situation currently. The Times is actively trying to change the subject on the matter of outstanding and divisive war crime issues between Japan and South Korea, by substituting another atrocity discussion to unfairly tarnish the Moon administration.

In another article ostensibly concerning South Korean dislike of China,* the New York Times completely distorts the reality of election politics by throwing its weight behind presidential candidate, Yoon Seok-yeol, the far right "gaffe a day" extremist who has corrupted the administration of justice in South Korea. This candidate is notorious for his lack of knowlege on domestic and foreign policy issues. He and his family are just one step ahead of the jailer for a train of alleged corrupt acts. His mother in law was imprisoned recently after a trial conviction for a large scale medical fraud scheme. The case is currently under appeal. There are at least six investigations currently pending against Yoon, his wife and his mother in law.

*South Koreans Now Dislike China More Than They Dislike Japan, Choe Sang-hun, Aug.20, 2021; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/asia/korea-china-election-young-voters.html?auth=login-google

Young voters are shown by the most recent polls to favor democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung over Yoon Seok-yeol. Yoon is viewed as Kon Dae, an officious old fart, out of touch with modern reality. The over sixty demographic is the only decade that supports Yoon at this point. His numbers have declined and stalled at a low level for weeks, because of his stupid pronouncements, and his on going political dispute with Lee Jun-seok. Lee Jun-seok who is the defacto leader of the youth vote in the conservative opposition People's Power Party. Lee himself is no prize as the pututive leader of South Korea's misogynist movement among young men. The NY Times also tries to make it appear that the opposition movement against the US THAAD missile base is somehow a thing of the past. The local demonstrations against THAAD have continued since 2017 without letup. Corruption of poll results in South Korea is a current issue. There are large discrepancies in polling results depending on the sources. *

*See: Skepticism grows over contradicting poll results in run-up to presidential elections, Yohnap News Agency, 8.18.21; https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210818006100315?section=national/politics

If you want to be woefully misinformed about Asian affairs read the NY Times.

South Korea Democratic Primary Schedule

( Source- 언론알아야바꾼다 youtube 8.16)
New democratic party primary campaign schedule dates: Sep. 4, circuit primary campaigns begin (previously Aug. 7); Sep. 12, party members caste votes in first round primary candidate selection; Oct. 3, second round balloting for presidential candidate; Oct. 10, final voting to confirm democratic party presidential candidate's nomination; Announcement mid-October.

( Source- 언론알아야바꾼다 youtube 8.16) South Korea's 2022 presidential election schedule. In 2022, official registration of presidential candidates begins Feburary 13-14, with the election activity officially beginning Feb. 15; Overseas balloting period February 23-28; Early ballots March 4-5 and final ballots March 9, 2022.

The important dates for the South Korean primary selection process for presidential candidates from an earlier 언론알아야바 video report had outdated information concerning the democratic party primary process. These two graphics are posted as an update/correction. These two graphics from the same source, are taken from the 언알바 youtube video on August 16. The changes in the schedule were secured by supporters of Lee Nak-won and Chung Sye-kyun. It was believed that a four to five week delay in the primary selection schedule would give them some more time to catch up to Lee Jae-myung, the leading democratic candidate and Gyeonggido governor. Lee Nak-yon is 12.9 percent in national polling, and Chung is less than 2 percent.

It was noted in the same program that Lee JM has a distinct advantage in the electoral race as the current governor of Gyeonggido which has more democratic voters than any other jurisdiction in South Korea. Competitors are unlikely to make inroads criticizing Lee JM's proposals for universal income payments to compensate individuals for the adverse economic effects of the pandemic. The reactionary ideological response from the right, that it isn't the government's responsibility to support the people economically is likely to fall flat. The "where are you going to get the money arguments" of centrist democrats like Lee Nak-yon aren't gaining much traction with democrats under the circumstances. As a governor, Lee Jae-myung can get the money right out of his own provincial administration budget and distribute it, while others carp about austerity. Another positive attribute of Lee JM's approach is that it is practical, and demonstrates a commitment to the public welfare and economic issues. Thus the focus of the election is directed away from a negative mandate on the Moon Jae-in administration, where centrists and conservatives without a policy program would like it to stay.

The source 언론알아야바 also noted the public policy discussion scheduled by the People's Power Party candidates for September 17 and 25th. Yoon's camp had indicated a reluctance to participate with a large slate of minor candidates. Hong Joong-pyo has criticized Yoon for his reluctance to debate characterizing it as fear. In another provocative and politically significant move, Hong has gone beyond general criticism of Yoon's politicization of the Prosecutor General's office, to a specific attack on the corruption of the law enforcement processes concerning his mother in law, who was recently convicted of fraud in the operation of a medical facility. Hong specifically raised the issue of whether or not there was political interference in the earlier investigation of the case when a nolle prosse determination was made concerning Yoon's mother in law, Choi. Recently, mother in law Choi, was found guilty at her first trial and sentenced to three years in prison. So Hong has taken the initiative here, firing a shot across the bow, indicating that he accepts the allegations of progressives on the left, and the prosecution reform faction of the democratic party, that Yoon compromised his former public office and the rule of law in South Korea. This is Yoon's achillee's heel. One could argue, that Yoon has to become president in order to protect himself and his family from further investigations and prosecution. There are currently several corruption investigations pending against Yoon, his wife, and mother in law. The conservative mainstream media is avoiding this subject matter as much as possible. They are stake holders in the Yoon political scheme referred to commonly as press-prosecution collusion (to protect corrupt special interests).

If matters related to the alleged corruption of the prosecutors' offices and Yoon's family are fair targets in a political campaign how will the press avoid the issue when they are debated on a televised debate? How will they avoid the issue if Yoon declines to participate? Hong wins either way, and democrats benefit from conservative infighting. Will Hong's scathing commentary on Yoon be limited to facebook posts and social media? Checking the English language media last night, the internal fissure in the PPP is described as a candidate Yoon- Party Leader Lee feud. This was covered in our prior post, but the Hong- Yong rivalry is likely to be more damaging, as Hong is an experienced and able campaigner.

.

South Korea: Presidential campaign- August 12 polling

( Source- 언론알아야바꾼다 youtube 8.12) Recent MBN poll shows Yoon Seok-yeol dropping behind the Democratic Party's leading candidate Lee Jae-myung.

This episode of 언알바 ( must know media translated )* concentrated on analyzing the emerging power struggle within the so called People's Power Party and how their candidates may fair in the future "primary" process within the major oppostion conservative party. Currently, the leading candidate for president on the right who recently affiliated with the PPP is Yoon Seok-yeol, the former Prosecutor General who left the Moon Jae-in administration and represents an anti- Moon constituency. Yoon is posing as a non-political outsider which often presents a popular option in election campaigns but tends to be unsuccesful in the long run. (Remember Ban Ki-moon's failed campaign?)

Yoon was always a conservative, but an opportunist at heart, showing no hesitancy to participate in the impeachment investigation and trial of former conservative president Park Geun-hye. Yoon's claim to fame as a "reformer" primarily derives from orchestrating prosecutions of political rivals on the left, for "corruption" whether they deserve it or not. Lately, Yoon has expressed some silly or unsophisticated views on political issues that have caused his standing in the polls to drop. Among these is that he regrets participating in the prosecution of Park Geun-hye. This is a black mark for some in the opposing faction within the PPP. His other statements on economic, regulatory, and foreign affairs, are viewed by some observers as "stupid" or at least politically inept. This broadcast emphasized that Yoon's public statements reveal that he over indulges in extreme right youtube videos.

( Source- 언론알아야바꾼다 youtube 8.12) Conservative presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol (left) loses a lot of ground to rival Hong Joong-pyo (right) between June 3 and August 12.


Conservative presidential candidate Hong Joong-pyo has been employing his sharp wit to criticize Yoon Seok-yeol publicly. Yoon's considerable political camp within the PPP includes perhaps a dozen current or former assembly members. They are basically not participating in general party organizing activities intended to mobilize political support and achieve party goals. The pro-Yoon faction generally opposes young party leader, Lee Jun-seok's organizing initiatives and party committee appointments, fearing he may skew the primary processes to select a rival candidate against Yoon. Kim Mu-sung, a party elder, and Yoo Seung-min, a current candidate for president, appear to be supporters of party leader Lee.

Lee Jun-seok, was a protege of the former impeached President Park Geun-hye. Yoon publicly described himself as "a porpoise" in comparison to young party leader Lee Jun-seok, who Yoon described as a "minnow." Lee had characterized Yoon as ( 꼰대 ) boomer (old fashioned, ubervisor, narrow minded, etc.) emphasizing his lack of appeal to younger voters. Following up on Yoon's play on words, candidate Hong said Yoon was a cobblestone or rock ( 돌맹이 ) rather than a porpoise ( 돌고래 ) drawing attention to the Yoon's "gaffe a day" campaign. Some of the conservative constituency is finding this a valid criticism. Ignoring Yoon's unprofessional conduct as a prosecutor, and the alleged corruption scandals surrounding his wife and mother in law, some conservatives still question whether the welfare and security of South Korea can be entrusted to a blockhead who gets his information from dubious internet sources. Did you seee the pictures of Yoon posing in bed with his beloved poodles and cats? Social media commentary runs as follows: What was that? Who is running his campaign? Choi Soon-sil? He looks like a dupe. Is he competent to run the Blue House, the country? As can be seen from the graphic above, Hong made substantial strides in the recent poll of public opinion closing the gap with Yoon.

( Source- 언론알아야바꾼다 youtube 8.12)
Summary of important events in the campaign schedule affecting all parties. Registration of preliminary candidates opened on July 12, 2021; The Democratic Party will select its presidential candidate by September 9; The PPP will select its presidential candidate by November 9. In 2022, official registration of presidential candidates begins Feburary 13-14, with the election activity officially beginning Feb. 15; Early ballots March 4-5 and final ballots March 9, 2022.


If Yoon's faction were to bolt from the PPP, residual party members and candidates could form an arrangement with Ahn Chul-su, the perennial independent presidential candidate. The broadcast emphasized Ahn's purported credentials as a political outsider as well and how his approach to presidential campaigns has been unsuccessful in the past.

( Source- 언론알아야바꾼다 youtube 8.12) Important primary selection dates in People's Power Party: August 30-31 candidate registration; September 15 first primary cut, eight candidates by popular survey; October 8, second cut selecting four candidates by 70 percent party member vote, and 30 percent popular survey; Final candidate selection by November 9, 50 percent party member vote, 50 percent popular survey.


YTN news is reporting that the Committee to Investigate Crimes by Senior Government Officials has secured a warrant to obtain Justice Ministry and prosecution office records pertaining to official actions by Yoon Seok-yeol related to a "botched" investigation of the Optimus Scandal by Yoon, and an investigation into allegations of Yoon's interference in efforts to uncover falsified evidence in prosecution of former Prime Minister Han Myeong. Witnesses are expected to be called after the records are obtained. The possibility of Yoon being called as a witness himself while primaries are pending is raising complaints of "election interference."

* note: this post relies heavily on the credited source, but also relies on other South Korean political reports as well.

South Korea: Current presidential candidate standings, August 5.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.8) Joongang survey of public opinion from 8.3 to 8.5: percent approval of leading presidential candidates: Lee Jae-myung, governor of Gyeonggido, democratic party, 25% ; Yoon Seok-yeol, former Prosecutor General, People's Power Party, 19 %; Lee Nak-yon, former national assembly member, floor leader and prime minister, democratic party, 11 % ; and Choi Jae-hyung, former government audit agency head, PPP, 4%.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.8) This line chart follows chronologically from Feb 2021 week one (left) fitness for presidential office opinions by percentage surveyed by NBS up to the first week in August (right) for the top three candidates: Lee Jae-myung, democratic party (top blue line, 28% ); Yoon Seok-yeol, PPP candidate (red line, 22% ); and Lee Nak-yon, democratic party (blue-green line, 10% ).

Lee Jae-myung, is the popular democratic governor of Gyeonggi Do (province) a major suburban area around Seoul. He is regarded as the progressive candidate. Yoon Seok-yeol is the conservative independent candidate who just joined the PPP conservative opposition party. Yoon is a former prosecutor whose family is embroiled in controversy and legal investigations. It is widely believed by critics in social media that Yoon and his family are corrupt. His supporters claim that the allegations against him, his spouse and mother in law are politically motivated and unproven. The conservative mainstream media support him. His mother in law was recently sent to prison for a medical benefits fraud scheme after her first trial. The decision is being appealed.

Lee Nak-yon, is the centrist democratic candidate whose criticisms of former democratic Justice Minister Cho Guk (now subject to prosecution initiated and allegedly politically motivated by Yoon) has eroded his support somewhat inside the democratic party. Lee Nak-yon's expressed desire to pardon former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, has also lessened his popular support recently. Choi Jae-hyung, who like Yoon Seok-yeol, held an important post in the democratic Moon Jae-in administration, is regarded as something as an opportunist now posing as a rock ribbed conservative. The presence of Yoon and Choi as PPP candidates is believed to reflect a weak conservative field of candidates. Party primaries initial and secondary, and party designations of their respective candidates have not taken place and won't be completed till fall 2021. The presidential election is scheduled for March 6, 2022.

죽창가 Bamboo Spear Song

The original poem is attributed to Kim Nam-ju ( 故 김남주 시인 ) according to an article in the International Newspaper July 16, 2019 shortly after the final episode of the dramatic series Noktu Flower ( 녹두꽃 ). Noktu Flower portrays the Tonghak reform movement in late 19th Century.* The article concerned a post by the former South Korean Justice Minister Cho Guk, who recalled the uprising incident to an evolving Japanese military takeover of late Chosun on facebook while he served as Civil Affairs secretary at the Blue House. The Bamboo Spear Song, which might be interpreted as the Bamboo Spear Hymn, played during the hanging execution scene adminstered by Japanese authorites. "Noktu," General Jeon Bong Jun, and his staff were hanged in this dramatic rendition while the Bamboo Spear Song played in the background. Cho Guk linked the spirit of that reform movement to the current national resistance to Japan's efforts to coerce South Korea economically. As discussed in my prior post, conservative presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol is a critic of of the "Bamboo Spear Song." He has thereby revealed himself as a representative of the legacy pro-Japan faction ( 친일파 ). The latter has found itself in an uncomfortable position each time a democratic administration comes to office in South Korea calling for a redress of historical grievances against Japan, legal and otherwise, which have yet to be resolved.

** 조국 게재한 죽창가 가사 내용은? 정치권 의견 분분, 이영실 기자, 7.16.19 국제신문 ; http://www.kookje.co.kr/news2011/asp/newsbody.asp?code=0100&key=20190716.99099007677

(Source- SBS/ondemandkorea.com) This historic image of General Jeon Bong Jun, also known as "Noktu" (mung bean), was interposed with the scene recreated in the current South Korean historical drama "Noktu Flower." The scene depicts Noktu for posterity after he and his military staff were sentenced to death. Nokdu was the leader of the Korean peasants' revolt that arose out of the decadence, corruption. violence and poverty of late Chosun. The peasant revolution in the late 19th Century precipitated a pretext for the Japanese invasion and occupation of Korea which didn't end till August 1945. In the image the condemned General Jeon (center) is being escorted by Japanese police in 1895.

The blog posted this picture of Noktu and discussed the significance of the drama Noktu flower based upon JTBC news reports at the time. (Japan's Weaponization of Trade with South Korea, July 14, 2019)


Below is my English interpretation of the lyrics:


This mountain village, soar together!
Let's become a flower. The flower
nurtured by falling tears and broken feet
let's become noktu flowers

This mountain valley all together take flight!
Lets become a bird. A bird
To north and south it cries,
Let's become the flying blue bird

This field alight together
Let's become a fire. A fire
burning plains lighting the darkness
Let's become the field afire

Let's do that, it's time for that
One more time, this village
Let's become a rebellion
Green pine green bamboo fixed in our heart
Let's become the bamboo spear

( 죽창가 / 김남주 시, 김경주 곡 )

I've taken a liberal rather than literal interpretation in order to convey the aesthetic and emotional appeal of the original in hangul. From watching the Noktu Flower drama series and learning from other sources about the period I tried to capture the spirit of the uprising's Bamboo Spear Hymn. The poem by Kim Nam-ju won a literary award in 1989. At some earlier point it was set to music by Kim Kyeong-ju, and sung by college students during the uprising against the Chun Du-hwan dictatorship. A song with similar imagery actually arose during the Tonghak rebellion period. There is an academic argument about the use of the symbolism of the "blue birds" as compared to the use of the symbol in '새야새야' ( Birds! Birds! )a folk song from the period in which the birds could be interpreted to symbolize invading foreign armies alighting on the mung bean (noktu) fields offending the spirit of the ancestors whose souls reside there to ward off the birds.* The seasonal coming and going of the birds takes a entirely different meaning in The Bamboo Spear Song.

*조국 수석의 '죽창가' 인용, 무엇이 문제란 말인가? 19.07.23 12:01l최종 업데이트 19.07.23 19:05l추준우 ; http://www.ohmynews.com/NWS_Web/View/at_pg.aspx?CNTN_CD=A0002555923

Fair use: my intent is to inform and educate the English speaking public about the nature of Korean national aspirations and its history which the US government and western press seems to studiously and consistently ignore, immersed as it is in its pro-Japanese perspective.*

* See: US senior diplomat says Japan's 20th-century atrocities "are what they are," urges S. Korea, Japan to pursue good relationship, Hankyoreh, by Jul.30,2021 17:37 KST Modified on : Jul.30,2021 17:37 KST; By Hwang Joon-bum, http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/1005917.html


.

South Korea: Presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's poor public image

The powers that be in the so called People's Power Party decided to bring independent but leading conservative candidate for president Yeon Seok-yeol into the party as their candidate on Friday when the new nominal leader of the party Lee Jun-seok was out of town. It was regarded as poor timing in the news cycle and something of an unexpected event taking place near the weekend. It may be that the party elders didn't see much competition for Yoon on the conservative side, and wished to take advantage of what is now becoming a somewhat destructive power struggle within the democratic party between their two leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung, and Lee Nak-yeon.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.3) Lee Nak-yeon v. Yoon Seok-yeol (top) survey results and Lee Jae-myung v. Yoon Seok-yeol survey results (bottom) in hypothetical presidential election next March.

It's fairly clear at this point, in the democratic party race, that Lee JM is the populist candidate on the left, and that Lee NY is the centrist candidate representing the traditional neoliberal interests. One might even be able to say that Lee JM is South Korea's Bernie Sanders to Lee NY's Joe Biden. In any case, although Lee Jae-myung is ahead of Lee Nak-yeon in the polls, there is the prospect that any substantial misteps by Lee JM could result in the presentation of Lee NY as a formidable centrist candidate in the democratic party, relatively indistinguishable from a conservative representing special interests in the opposition PPP. This prospect presents the further risk of potential leakage of conservative votes away from the PPP candidate to a more recognizable, experienced, and "reliable" democratic candidate who in essence is quite conservative. On the other side, the possible conservative PPP candidates, alternative to Yoon Seok-yeol, appear currently to have little depth in terms of public support.

(Source 알리미 황희두 youtube, 8.2) Yoon Seok-yeol, conservative presidential candidate (left) and Lee Jun-seok, People's Power Party leader (right).

In any case, an early adoption of Yoon presents some advantages, giving the appearance of a united team on the conservative side in contrast to the blood letting in the democratic party. Oddly, the adoption of Yoon as a PPP candidate, occurred without the apparent participation Lee Jun-seok, the new PPP party leader, allegedly representing the disaffected under forty male vote. This was something of a shock. Yoon met with Lee for beers and chicken after the surprise announcement to repair the damage. It had been widely suspected that Lee had no actual power in the party, and now we can be sure of it. He just symbolizes the popular mysogyny among South Korea's economically dissatisfied and socially frustrated young males. The PPP hoped to profit off this prejudice. One of Lee Jun-seok's current proposals favored by young South Korean males is to get rid of South Korea's department of women and families.

In the process of meeting Lee and others over the last several days, certain personal characteristics have become apparent concerning Yoon, which are less than desirable from a public relations point of view. As a senior prosecutor, and then as Prosecutor General Yoon has become accustomed to speaking unguardedly with the press. Any gaffes or mistakes he had made, could reliably be expected to either be omitted in reporting or deleted by the editors in the conservative dominated mainstream South Korean media. In the past, the former prosecutor's comments would be limited to the legal issues at hand, rather than a broad range of policy. After a career as prosecutor, the law is something with which he is presumably familiar. Now, as far as affairs beyond investigation or litigation, Yoon appears not to be ready for prime time.

Getting back to his personal attributes, in last few days, Yoon was observed drinking alcohol during the daytime at political lunches. This included his meeting with Lee Jun-seok, where in keeping with the chi-mek youthful affectation of that lunch meeting, Yoon drank five or six beers. At other daytime meetings for political purposes Yoon was observed drinking soju, a potent liquor. Observers have pointed out, that drinking during the day, isn't something that is the custom during a political luncheon or meeting, and the first drink is somewhat customary with serious talk to follow. Some reports speculated that Yoon's off hand comments that have offended some recently perhaps were the result of alcohol induced lack of caution. One saying going around on some independent media on the left is "another day, another gaffe;" and another, "Yoon, problems of his own creation." One critic compared Yoon's noted fondness for drinking to rumors about the ineffectual Park Geun-hye, who was later impeached. It was said that she had a habit of drinking and sleeping during the day, while others ran the Blue House. Pundits have noted that Yoon's appearance and behavior apparently need to be carefully managed or he will lose more votes. Naturally, democrats are looking forward to it. So Yoon's application to enter the PPP was accepted before he could do further damage to his prospects. Other Yoon critics feel that investigations of the multiple allegations of corruption against Yoon and his family will inevitably bring him down.

Yoon's far more substantial problems, the PPP has somehow chosen either to overlook or bind together to overcome. Fortunately for them they have the horsepower of the mainstream media behind them. There are currently at least five investigations pending against Yoon or his wife or mother in law for various forms of suspected corruption. Yoon's mother in law was recently sentenced to three years in prison for a medical fraud scheme involving a convalescent business she was not medically licensed to operate. There are other pending investigations of her and Yoon's wife. Among other things the two are suspected in an alleged insider stock price manipulation scheme involving Deutsche Motors. Yoon himself is being investigated for allegedly stonewalling the Optimus Fund scandal and interfering in the investigation of a public official. He is also allegedly involved in covering up the improper prosecution of former prime minister Han Myeong-sook. It is widely suspected that Yoon's marriage itself was the product of a pattern of behavior by his wife and mother in law to curry favorable treatment by prosecutors in investigations or litigation pending against them. The latter allegation primarily falls into the category of scandal because the statute of limitations has probably expired on many of the alleged underlying offenses.

Ironically, the more superficial criticism about Yoon concerns his unbecoming appearance in public. A flaw affecting his public image is his apparent neck twitch when he gets nervous or challenged with a critical question. The second is his posture where he slouches when sitting and spreads his legs apart with his stomach protruding over his belt. The impression given is, that in less than an entirely formal appearance, Yoon presents an attitude of arrogance or disrespect. One conservative politician remarked "keep your knees together," and noted Yoon needs "preparation" for public appearances. Other critics have observed that Yoon's casual appearance suggests an indolent life style and poor health rather than fitness for a demanding office like the presidency.

With respect to gaffes, it appears that Yoon has only the most superficial knowledge of economics, the everyday life of ordinary South Koreans, and the history or legacy of South Korea's independence fighters and its democratic movement. Yoon declared his presidential campaign at the Yoon Bong-kil Independence Memorial, on June 29. Yoon Bong-kil was an independence fighter who in 1932 carried out a plan to kill Japanese imperial government officials in Shanghai. He was sentenced to death by a Japanese military court. In his candidacy announcement policy presentation, Yoon derisively criticized the current administration's policy toward Japan by referring to it as a biased, ideologically driven, "singing of the bamboo spear song" (against Japan)*. It seemed a particularly inappropriate setting for such comments and a historically incorrect characterization. Yoon went on to call for putting all pending issues with Japan on the table in a "grand bargain." This, as if the current government were somehow at fault for not caving into Japanese economic coercion. That coercion by the way has failed with South Korean semiconductor producers having replaced their Japanese materials suppliers. One wonders how Yoon will put aside South Korean judicial decisions on reparations for Japanese forced labor crimes by their corporations during WWII in a "grand bargain" with a condescending and derisive Japanese government. Perhaps Yoon will put the judges and their families under investigation and simply blackmail them to avoid the separation of powers in a constitutional government. A professional disciplinary board found not too long ago that Yoon had unlawfully placed judges under investigation before. This episode was reminder of Yoon's brazen and directly confrontational style which may not serve him well politically although voters on the right find it appealing.

*edit note- bamboo spear song ( 동학농민혁명 및 항일 의병을 소재로 한 노래 '죽창가' ) is a reference to the Tonghak reform movement and independence movement fighters in Korea motivated by the oppression of the Korean people by Japanese invaders and occupiers in league with corrupt Korean collaborators. The historic irony here is stunning. Yoon Seok-yeol is a parody of this historical motif. He is symbolically calling out to foreign powers to support him. See 죽창가 또 올린 조국…"尹, 日정부와 유사한 역사의식 경악, " Yonhap News 7.30.21, 김동호 기자 ; https://namu.news/article/1312747#gsc.tab=0

Yoon recently alluded to Milton Friedman free market principles when asked about regulating inferior quality (adulterated) food products. This brought up discussion of the famous New York v. Lockner case in the US, and whether Yoon was not a throw back to an earlier time. Yoon expressed the opinion that it would be preferable for less fortunate people to buy this food, rather than regulate it. Yoon's explanation of why he is against a proposal regulating the excessive work hours to a 52 hour work week limit in South Korea was ridiculously insensitive. Leaving almost 120 hours outside the work environment for employee personal use was too much in Yoon's opinion. Yoon commented that working 120 hours would be better. He appears to be against any disaster relief payments to the public in general due to the economic hardships of the pandemic. In another gaffe, Yoon blamed declining South Korean birth rates on "feminism." Finally, Yoon stated he regrets his role in the prosecution of the impeached former president Park Geun-hye, which was probably the only positive element of his undeserved reputation as a prosecutor who has "fought corruption."

Democratic observers are hoping that despite the circular firing squad at work in their own party, greater public exposure of the "real Yoon," will cause his campaign and that of the PPP candidate whoever it may eventually become, to self destruct and ultimately result in victory for their candidate in March 2022.

8.5 addendum: Hol Seu-yong's discussion on the absurd nature of Yoon's comments, is that they are premeditated and designed to stimulate heated discussion on social media, particularly among the so called "il be" community. In this way remarks although appearing to be stupid "gaffes" by reasonable observers, will reverberate in the digital world, and generate publicity for Yoon through their in own unique way of creating momentum. In this sense, whether intentional or not, Yoon appears to be following a strategy similar to Trump's in the US on broadcast media, on twitter, and at public appearances.