An observation on AI threat analysis

In the legitimate role of threat analysis there is a structural problem with China which involves the language/cultural/historical perceptual barrier. So there is not only a need for an analyst with a strategic and/or tactical analytic background, but they also need to be able to read the language and be well versed in the history and culture. This is a very small group of people here in the US. Frankly there is an institutional bias against cultivating such people or allowing them policy input, lest they get "uppity."

It is so much easier for a generalist in the national security realm, such as generals and policy makers not to have to deal with reports that go against their material inclinations. What policy makers, who are typically industry flaks, are looking for is targeting analysis, not policy analysis. They make the policy. The actual analysts or so called experts who do rise to the top of political and tankie institutions dealing with foreign and national security policy have demonstrated the appropriate deference to the policy makers' institutional goals and their preconceived policies and propaganda. Naturally, they tend to articulate the perspective to which they have been conditioned over the course of their careers by the institutional incentives in place.

The policy makers’ biggest hangup is when people who are in fact expert analysts tell them something that doesn’t jive with the drive for the latest deployment plan for a numbered fleet, weapon system, new base or next war. This happens, not often, but still happens occasionally. Usually a few of these people come out of the woodwork on the eve of the next invasion. So there is a risk to preconceived policy objectives as formulated by public relations and propaganda managers when they have human analysts who know what they are talking about “go rogue” so to speak. With AI, the generalists with their MBAs and degrees in international relations who think they are qualified to speak on any problem anywhere on earth, don’t have to cope with actual experts who may disagree publicly with they say.

AI can substitute for expensive recruitment systems to procure, retain and develop adequate human resources necessary to conduct reliable analysis. Having an adequate pool of this sort of human talent takes years to develop and requires long term planning and resource allocation. This aspect of “threat analysis” policy has always been wanting in the US because it was never a high enough priority. Typically the problem isn’t even recognized until the eve of a crisis with a particular country or in a particular region, usually when the US is on the brink of initiating another war. AI will not compensate for this void. With the proposal to go to AI threat analysis even worse policy disasters are in store. So I think the rule is don’t tell me about policy, just tell me where to drop the bombs. AI can fulfill this role.

Amusing Yoon - Trump contrast

(Source- 정치초단 11.24) Yoon Seok-yeol, is this the US? Are you Trump? There is no basis to this lawsuit!

SBS reported that Yoon Seok-yeol would file a petition for injunction against the disciplinary proceedings against him and the attendant suspension of duties as Prosecutor General of South Korea. The reporter suggested without any legal grounds that Yoon's petition would be successful and block the administrative disciplinary proceedings against him. The report given within less one hour of Minister of Justice, Chu Mi-ae's announcement, is regarded as part of a media strategy to support Yoon and undermine the democratic administration. It was noted that virtually no one from mainstream media in South Korea attended Minister Chu's press conference. The action was described as a boycott of the Ministry of Justice's announcement by the conservative press.* Yoon absurdly conflates himself with an independent branch of government in the constitutional scheme of government.

* 정치초단 11.24, youtube; 윤석열 직무정지' 반응 통쾌하다! SBS 이현영의 희망회로! JTBC의 변희재 드립 "홍석현 회장님 힘내세요" 충성 보도 등 ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ejYxC51WhA

There appears to be an interesting parallel in the treatment of Minister Chu by opposition politicians and conservative media and the similar "bypassing" of Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha.* Namely, there is a sexist innuedo by conservative media and other critics that she is incompetent and that her actions are not worthy of serious consideration.

*Kang Kyung-wha opens up about sexism in “male-centered culture of vested interests” Posted on : Nov.17,2020 17:02 KST Modified on : Nov.17,2020 17:02 KST Hankyoreh South Korea By Gil Yun-hyung, http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/970335.html

Yoon Seok-yeol's mother in law indicted for medical fraud scheme

Yonhap News is reporting that the Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's mother in law, Ms. Choi, has been indicted for a medical fraud scheme. Ms. Choi is charged with establishing, illegally and without required medical credentials, in late 2012, a medical organization, and then for five years from 2013 onward participating in the management and operation of a medical convalescent facility in Paju. She is 74 years old. She is accused of misappropriating over 2 billion won in medical benefits She has been indicted without a warrant for pre-trial arrest. Some observers find the determination of no pretrial detention suspicious because she allegedly has suborned perjury, and obstructed justice in other trials in the past.

The current indictment against Choi was brought under the special law for enhanced punishment for economic crimes.

Yoon himself is under investigation by the Ministry of Justice on suspicion of unethical private contacts with the corporate heads of the Chosun Ilbo and Joongang media groups. At the time Joonang's subsidiary JTBC had a defamation complaint pending against a conservative pundit. Chosun Ilbo was being investigated for financial misconduct by the head of its Chosun TV. Yoon is suspected of other professional misconduct including investigating judges in critical cases and interfering in cases in which he has a conflict of interest.

(Image Source- 열린공감TV) Chu Mi-ae Justice Minister of South Korea (left) and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, her insubordinate subordinate.

Last April Choi Kang-uk (no relation to Ms. Choi the accused) an Assembly member on the left accused Yoon of interference in the earlier investigation of his mother in law's three business partners in the illegal medical scheme. The partners have been already been found guilty of fraud, but no charges were brought against Ms. Choi at that time. The reason given that upon her unqualified appointment as director of the medical organization, Ms. Choi obtained a waiver of legal responsibility. Upon reinvestigation of the case, it has been reported that prosecutors revealed one of the partners gave a statement that the legal waiver document is a forgery.

In another development Joongang Daily has reported that a record exists of Yoon meeting with his former colleage, Lee Kyu-chol, during the pendency of an investigation into the Optimus Fund. Allegedly, at the time of their meetings, Lee was advising Optimus which was suspected of financial violations in the management of private and government investments. Yoon, head of the Seoul Prosecutors Central District Branch Office gave a clean bill of health to Optimus which stayed in business a while longer ruining thousands of investors when the investment fund finally collapsed due to financial fraud. This particular report in the Joongang Daily may be a turning point in the remarkably friendly relationship demonstrated by the major media cartels and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol. Typically they have either ignored reports of suspicious acts by Yoon or his family or caste aspersions on those generating the allegations.

The Blue Roof is reporting in their analysis that Minister Chu Mi-ae has suspended Yoon pending investigation:

https://www.blueroofpolitics.com/p/breaking-news-alert/

LA Times bias evident in article about THAAD affair in South Korea

This is a critique of the recent LA Times article presenting an erroneous view of the THAAD affair in South Korea:

From a crab shack to Hyundai, China’s wrath over a U.S. missile defense system still weighs on South Korea, By VICTORIA KIM NOV. 19, 20202 AM; https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-19/south-korea-china-beijing-economy-thaad-missile-interceptor

The THAAD incident demonstrated not so much the undue commercial influence of China on current South Korean policy as the reemergence of traditional Korean foreign policy values formulated to retain sovereignty amongst overbearing and more powerful competing great powers in the region. The reappearance of such an outlook in South Korea after more than 125 years of domination by foreign powers reflects the true emergence of democracy and independence. This has been reflected in the long sought removal of the US presence in Yongsan in central Seoul, (site of the old Japanese imperial garrison), and the removal to Pyongtaek of US military bases and forces from the traditional bases and operating areas north of Seoul and close to the DMZ. Similarly, the current administration of South Korea is not going to lock itself into an anti-China Indo-Pacific alliance which will further restrict its freedom of action to adopt policies seen to be in its national interest.


First of all, it was the prior pliable, corrupt conservative administration of Park Geun-hye that agreed to allow the installation of THAAD launchers in South Korea. The LA Times article focuses it's critical remarks implicitly on the current democratic South Korean administration which acted to block the erection of any additional THAAD batteries. This occured after a vehemently opposed local reaction and the strong Chinese reaction arose during the installation of the first unit in Seongju, South Korea. By way of comparison, Japanese communities objected to installation of anti ballistic missile systems on land in their own country, and the central government stopped the development and construction of AEGIS ashore facilities in July 2020. (The US claims it is only suspended).

What Americans need to keep in mind, is that South Korea is no longer a military dictatorship which will automatically submit to the dictates of US military commands or "diplomats" concerning South Korean defense policy. Nor is the current representative government merely a conservative successor of the corporate chaebol and militarist interests remaining from the dictatorship period of the 20th Century. This is evident in the democratic Moon adminstration's resistance to extortionate US military cost sharing demands for a greater than 400 percent increase in the ROK contribution. It is also manifest in the ongoing contest over when and whether operational control of the ROK armed forces during wartime will ever be transferred to South Korea.

It should be noted that the LA Times estimate of the damage to the South Korean economic interests as a result of the THAAD incident is placed at the low end of estimates. The US made no effort to mitigate these losses but to the contrary followed with extortionate demands on military cost sharing and extended military commitments beyond the scope of the current alliance to the entire Indo-Pacific. There are also technical questions about the effectiveness of the THAAD system and whether its high altitude detection envelope doesn't in fact leave most of South Korea undefended from North Korean missiles with the Korean military in the position of having to purchase and construct other ABM systems anyway. This suggests that Chinese accusations that the system is actually more likely to be directed against China than North Korea are well founded. What the LA Times article also leaves out is that US defense planners and Pentagon representatives have been promoting the notion of deploying US offensive intermediate range missiles in allied countries in the Asian theater. This discussion revealed the true intention of US planners and their complete disconnect from political and economic realities on the ground, not only in South Korea, but in East Asia generally.

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and Sexist Foreign Policy

This article from the Hankyoreh about Foreign Minister Kang's presentation on sexism in foreign policy was illuminating:

Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyung-wha said she has been constantly aware of discrimination and prejudice toward women while working in a “male-centered culture of vested interests.” Her remarks were seen as reflecting awareness of persistent speculation about her being “bypassed” as South Korea’s first female foreign minister.

While participating in a conversation at the “Future Dialogue for Global Innovation” co-organized by the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and the network tvN on Nov. 16, Jared Diamond, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, and author of the book “Guns, Germs, and Steel” commented on the lack of an environment where women are able to show their capabilities. In response, Kang said, “I’m very working very hard in this important position of being the first female foreign minister, but there are times when I feel myself asking, ‘Is this kind of [response] because I’m a woman?’”

Kang Kyung-wha opens up about sexism in “male-centered culture of vested interests” Posted on : Nov.17,2020 17:02 KST Modified on : Nov.17,2020 17:02 KST Hankyoreh South Korea By Gil Yun-hyung, http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/970335.html

Wow. Here are my observations:

1) S.Korea is the weakest of among the three pertinent states including the US and Japan who typically seek obsequious foreign policy from South Korean leaders.

2) Kang Kyung-wha is a brilliant and able diplomat who represents the new democratic policy of asserting South Korea’s sovereignty against overbearing allies previously accustomed to demanding and getting their way. Her determination and independence are mistaken for some kind of feminine “weakness” that succumbs to naive idealism and unrealistic expectations in a harsh world rather than the actual foreign policy of the Moon Jae-in administration.

3) The male dominated ultra conservative governments of the US and Japan are sexist in nature.

4) South Korea is a male dominated patriarchal society with a deeply seated sexist bias. Therefore, attempts to sway its erstwhile overbearing allies are going to tend to move her out of the way to appease their sexist inclinations.

5) I noticed the inappropriate demeanor and “touchiness” of Pompeo’s early interaction with Foreign Minister Kang. When he didn’t get his way in policy terms, the Korea passing and other protocol slights not only to Kang, but to the entire Moon cabinet began.

Very interesting article.

상사화 Magic Lily

안예은 – Ahn Ye-eun: Lyrics, melody, original performance


사랑이 왜 이리 고된가요
Love, why is it this painful
이게 맞는가요
Is this right
나만 이런가요
Am I the only one this way
고운 얼굴 한 번 못 보고서
Not able to see your kind face once
이리 보낼 수 없는데
I can't send you this way

사랑이 왜 이리 아픈가요
Why does love hurt this way
이게 맞는가요
Is this right
나만 이런가요
Am I the only one
하얀 손 한 번을 못 잡고서
Not holding your pale hand one time
이리 보낼 순 없는데
I can't endure this.

다시 돌아올 수 없는
Unable to return again
그 험한 길 위에
Upon that rugged path
어찌하다 오르셨소
How is it you came
내가 가야만 했었던
I was supposed to go alone
그 험한 길 위에
Upon that difficult path
그대가 왜 오르셨소
Why did you come

기다리던 봄이
As the awaited spring
오고 있는데 이리
is coming, you leave me
나를 떠나오
in this way
긴긴 겨울이
As the long, long winter
모두 지났는데
is completely past
왜 나를 떠나가오
Why do you leave me

다시 돌아올 수 없는
Unable to return again
그 험한 길 위에
Upon that rugged path
어찌하다 오르셨소
How is it you came
내가 가야만 했었던
I was supposed to go alone
그…

Chilgapsan 칠갑산

칠갑산 Jo Un-pa 조운파

콩밭매는 아낙네야 Bean patch tending woman
배적삼이 흠뻑 젖는다 Summer jacket dripping wet
무슨설움 그리 많아 What sorrow is so great
포기마다 눈물심누나 At each plant dropping tears?

홀어머니 두고 시집 가던 날 The day she left her widowed mother to marry
칠갑산 산마루에 On the Chilgap mountain ridge
울어주든 산새소리만 Only the sound of a weeping mountain bird
어린가슴속을 태웠소 Burned within a child's heart.

홀어머니 두고 시집 가던 날 The day she left her widowed mother to marry
칠갑산 산마루에 On the Chilgap mountain ridge
울어주던 산새 소리만 Only the sound of a weeping mountain bird
어린가슴 속을 태웠소 Burned within a child's heart

Original song Ju Byung-son (1989). Lyrics and melody - Jo Un-pa 조운파