Who is Stephen Biegun's North Korean Counterpart?

If US Special Representative to North Korea, Stephen Biegun, were to go to Panmunjeom to meet with a working group delegation for renewed negotiations, who would his North Korean counterpart be? Kim Hyuk Chol, Biegun's prior negotiating counterpart on the DPRK side prior to the disaster at Hanoi, may no longer serve in that role. His major flaw, if you will, was not discerning the apparent lack of sincerity in Biegun's statements before Hanoi. Chairman Kim's embarrassment at Hanoi, ostensibly orchestrated by John Bolton's all or nothing approach, appears to have been blamed in large part on Kim Hyuk Chol. Kim Hyuk Chol was reported to have been summarily executed thereafter but there were subsequent reports that he was in custody being interrogated about his role in the debacle, which isn't a good sign either. Ironically, after being led down the primrose path by Mr. Biegun, Ambassador Kim, might be the best representative North Korea could field at this point. He would have a healthy dose of skepticism for anything Mr. Biegun might say, as he is making those "flexibility" sounds again.

But here are some contradictory comments from Biegun , after and before, the failed summit at Hanoi, noted in a March 12, Telegraph article:

“Biegun: “Nothing can be agreed until everything can be agreed.” – a losing strategy,” tweeted Jenny Town, a Korea specialist at the Stimson Centre, a Washington think tank.

and:

Mr Biegun, meanwhile, had indicated in an speech at Stanford University at the end of January that the US was willing to take a more stage by stage approach to the issue – a policy favoured by Pyongyang.

“We have communicated to our North Korean counterparts that we are prepared to pursue – simultaneously and in parallel – all of the commitments our two leaders made in their joint statement at Singapore last summer,” he said, referring to the two leaders’ first meeting in the city-state last June.*

*https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/12/us-will-not-accept-incremental-disarmament-insists-envoy-north/
US will not accept 'incremental' disarmament, insists envoy to North Korea

Beigun in his recent public statements has been making similarly enticing remarks to those before Hanoi. Perhaps he thinks no one notices the inconsistency. Here is a statement he made at the Atlantic Council on June 19:

Both sides understand the need for a flexible approach… We have to go beyond the formulas that for the past 25 years have failed to resolve this problem,” Biegun said. “We have made clear that the US is looking for meaningful and verifiable steps on denuclearization and we understand that in the North Korean view this is possible, but needs to proceed in context with broader discussions of security guarantees and improved overall relations.” *

*https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/door-is-wide-open-for-negotiations-with-north-korea-us-envoy-says
‘Door is Wide Open’ for Negotiations with North Korea, US Envoy Says

Sound familiar? Beigun emphasized that the working level representative on the North Korean side needed to be empowered to negotiate, in an apparent reference to the limitations of the top down approach taken by Chairman Kim. Does he not share the same problem with the fickle president?

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 6.25) Graphic images (left to right) Choe Son Hui, Stephen Biegun, Kim Hyuk Chol, and unknown.

Channel A News Top Ten news analysts in their discussion felt logical alternatives to Kim Hyuk Chol would be Choi Son Hui, First Deputy Foreign Minister and American affairs "expert," Ri Yong Ho, DPRK Foreign Minister, or perhapss some other as yet unanticipated envoy. Kim Jong Bong, an expert commmentator on North Korean affairs, floated the possibility of former Prime Minister Ri Su Yong stepping into the role to negotiate with Stephen Biegun. Here are some relevant Wikipedia entries on Ri:

In May 2016, Ri Su-yong was replaced by Ri Yong-ho as the foreign minister. The shuffle was followed by the 7th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea,[3] which elected Ri Su-yong a full member and Vice Chairman of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea,[12][13] a full member of the Politburo of the Workers' Party of Korea, and the director of the party's International Relations Department.[13] In 2017, he was elected chairman of the Diplomatic Commission of the Supreme People's Assembly.[14]

It is unlikely that Ri Yong Ho, Choe, or Ri Su Yong, or even Kim Hyuk Chol, will be fooled by Stephen Biegun's overtures again. His formulaic tactics don't seem to have changed. However, Kim Jong Un's receptivity to Trump's letters seems somewhat unexpected and naive under the circumstances. Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice...? Is he just holding out the possibility of an election campaign extravaganza summit event for President Trump? Kim is likely as disingenuous and superficial in his approach as the US representatives playing along with their game just buying time to see what happens to Trump.

(Source- Arirang News 6.21) Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho (far right) and Party Director of International Relations Ri Su Hong (second from right) present with Kim Jong Un at the table for the summit meeting with Xi Jinping's delegation in Pyongyang. These two are senior to Choe Son Hui in the party hierarchy. (click to expand picture)

Trump may visit DMZ while in South Korea sparking rumors

It's amusing the lengths the South Korean media will go to guess what exactly the "interesting" contents of the letter Kim was pictured reading so intently in the pose shown by KCNA may have been:

(Source- YTN News 6.24) 1. US Presidential letterhead. 2. Addressee/ Sender 3. Assumed greetings 4. Main contents 5. Assumed closing 6. Two bold underlines 7. Trump's signature

It isn't clear who put the underlines on the bottom of the page. It's so frustrating, because it almost seems as if it might be possible to see through the paper and read the letter if one had the right specialized equipment. The message could be something like, "I'll be in the Joint Security Area on the 29th, have your people call my people. Hope to see you there. " Maybe this is an illusion like so many things concerning US- North Korean relations. The rife speculation and guesswork is indicative of the importance of this matter to South Koreans.

An article was published by Reuters today, which discussed Trump's upcoming visit to South Korea for a summit meeting with President Moon, after the G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, is completed. Here is the part of that news that is prompting rumors in South Korea:

Trump is considering a visit to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas, a South Korean official said. Trump wanted to go there during a 2017 trip to South Korea but heavy fog prevented it.

Kim and Moon held their historic first summit in the DMZ last year, so a Trump visit to the border between the two Koreas this weekend could spark speculation of a meeting with Kim there.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-northkorea/trump-to-visit-south-korea-as-pompeo-raises-hope-for-new-north-korea-talks-after-letter-idUSKCN1TP0QS

There really isn't a lot of time in the schedule for a Trump-Kim meeting at the DMZ, and there hasn't been time enough yet for any significant preparation for meaningful nuclear negotiation at the working level by qualified experts. Trump is arriving in South Korea the afternoon on the 29th and scheduled to summit with Moon on the 30th, and then is scheduled to leave South Korea.

Jong Se Hyun former Unification Minister in South Korea started this speculation yesterday in a radio interview. He said there is really no reason Trump couldn't cross the DMZ causing an international media sensation. As an extraordinary character like Trump might want to do to give his reelection campaign a big boost. Critics of Jong have said that this is wishful thinking on his part. Other South Korean observers say that there hasn't been enough time even for security preparations and that an impromptu summit meeting is just unprecedented and illogical. YTN News and Channel A News Top Ten covered this story today. Jong Se Hyun said in the YTN interview today that any meeting at the DMZ were it to take place would only provide an opportunity to shake hands. The most that could be expected would be that such a meeting whatever its public relations value to the respective leaders, would potentially mark the commencement of a schedule for working groups from the US and North Korea, to meet and generate more concrete arrangements for renewed negotiations between the two states.

Reuters reported yesterday that Trump has no plans to meet with Kim Jong Un while in South Korea after the G-20 Summit according to an unnamed senior administration official.

Observations on Xi's visit to Pyongyang

(Source YTN News 6.21) Previously reported "purged," Kim Yong Chol, Vice Chairman, appears in the number six position of the receiving line at Pyongyang Airport.

(Source YTN News 6.21) Reportedly on "probation," Kim Jong Un's sister Kim Yeo Jong, appears in the receiving line for Xi Jinping in the number seven position.

(Source YTN News 6.21) Title of the YTN report was Kim Yeo Jong's position enhanced? Changes observed at President Xi's reception event. Hyun Song Wol, the musical arts group director, appears in a new role at the airport reception. Is she taking over Kim Yeo Jong's former role? She appeared to be coordinating the formal reception activities at the airport while Kim Yeo Jong stood in the reception line with other leaders. Here in this view Hyun is wearing a blue tooth device. She was observed communicating with Kim Chang Son, Chairman Kim's Chief of Protocol, during the ceremonies. At one point she ushered China's First Lady Peng Liyuan to her position for the formalities.

(Source YTN News 6.21) Massive coverage of Xi's visit in North Korean media. Welcoming performances for President XI and the First Lady of China at the Mass Games venue. The presentation emphasized historical ties, including the "blood ties" forged in the Korean conflict between the two communist states and various DPRK China summits over history. Choe Ryong Hae, President of the Presidium of the SPA, and First Vice Chairman of the State Affairs Committee, and Premier Kim Jae Ryong, a new State Affairs Committee appointee were observed in front row seats to the right of Xi and the Chinese First Lady.


Richard Johnson appeared with standard guest Scott Snyder on VOA's Washington Talk program this weekend. Johnson emphasized the need for working level talks among experts between North Korea and the US to get a realistic plan for implementation of steps to denuclearize North Korea. An experienced participant in nuclear negotiations with JCPOA and Six Party experience, he also pointed out that China thinks in terms of years and years in a negotiating process. He opined that the Trump administration was seeking tangible results within his term, using a top down method. His opinion was that this was impractical and ineffective. Mr. Johnson also referred to the first Singapore summit and the parallel simultaneous approach envisioned in the joint statement produced which included security matters and normalization of relations in addition to denuclearization measures. Mr. Johnson suggested sending a US team of technical experts to Yongbyun to get things started. He also mentioned that having an international team of technical experts for verification of any steps taken in the denuclearization process might be better received by North Korea. Mr. Snyder emphasized that China had yet to present a tangible detailed plan for denuclearization of North Korea. Also that it was up to the North Koreans to make "the next move." This VOA Washington Talk podcast video is available in English on youtube. This was a better than average program for the VOA due to Mr. Johnson's presence.

The US hasn't done much in the way of preparing a realistic plan for denuclearization either because it can't get past the fundamental differences concerning the negotiating process itself. The US focus has been on the "big deal" top down approach, with a view toward public relations and domestic political consumption. Thae Yong Ho, the well known diplomatic defector from North Korea believes that Xi may have a proposal to transmit to the US at the upcoming G20 meeting in Osaka. Thae has been emphasizing that Trump's focus is using the possibility of a third summit with Kim Jong Un as an election campaign strategy.

Jong Se Hyun, former Unification Minister for South Korea, opined that the Chinese North Korean summit was an unwelcome development. Previously, he took a negative view of the outcome of the Hanoi summit, specifically blaming John Bolton for the failure. Apparently, he sees Xi's Pyongyang visit as part of a deteriorating climate for negotiations, in which the North Korean stalemate becomes a card for China to play, in response to US pressure in respect to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and other geo-political issues, and the overarching trade dispute. Jong emphasized the problematic one dimensional approach of the US toward the denuclearization issue as opposed to the normalization and security issues also presented in the Singapore joint statement. The US position is a demand for North Korean denuclearization first for promises of normalization, security and economic benefits, later. In Jong's view US failure to move forward on all the issues, by the end of the year, will force North Korea to adhere to the Chinese for security and economic support. He said the US should restart talks with North Korea as soon as practicable, and avoid entangling the negotiations with fourth party China issues.

(Source- Arirang News 6.21)

An English language Arirang News report on youtube noted the presence of "Choe Ryong-hae, the 1st Vice Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, and Premier Kim Jae-ryong at the table with the Chinese delegation for direct talks implying that economic as well as political issues were discussed." * Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho was also present.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuGQNkLjUu8

South Korean Controversy: Was Kim Won Bong a Patriot?

(Source-KBS News 6.8) Kim Won Bong photo in a contemporary newspaper during the time of Japanese colonial administration of Korea (1923). The Donga Ilbo extra headline is Power of Terrifying Violence; Kim Won Bong, leader of Uiyeoldan (Heroic Corps). Title of the KBS news report was "exploring support for 100th Anniversary of Heroic Group."

(Source-KBS News 6.8) This picture shows Kim Won Bong (highlighted) with the Korean provisional government. The famous Korean independence leader Baek Beom (Kim Gu), President of the Provisional Government of Korea in exile, stands front row center in the black suit. The banner for the KBS news broadcast says government determination of support may reignite Kim Won Bong dispute.


Recently, the drama series Different Dream was produced in South Korea to celebrate the centennial of the March First Movement (the Korean independence movement).

"Uiyeoldan (Heroic Corps) was the most threatening organization to Japan in Korea's independence movement history. Along with its leader Kim Won-bong, many other activists' lives have been reflected in the story." *

*Drama portrays life of freedom fighter ( 이 몽 Different Dream 異夢)
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/art/2019/04/688_266957.html

Interestingly, an MBC promotion of the spy action drama about the underground anti-Japanese Heroic Group explains there is a hidden meaning in the title: <이몽> 제목 속에 숨겨진 의미! From two different paths one dream. '이도일몽(異道一夢) , 두 개의 길, 하나의 꿈' The actor Yoo Ji Tae plays Kim Won Bong, the leader of Uiyeoldan (Heroic Corps).*

*출처: https://blog.mbc.co.kr/3015 [MBC 공식 블로그]

President Moon Jae In's recent statement about the group which provoked controversy is similar in nature. Moon said on June 6, Memorial Day in South Korea, that Kim Won Bong's underground group of fighters contributed ultimately to increasing the strength of the Korean people's independence movement. Further, he maintained that the Korean independence movement became the basis for the South Korean Army and in turn the foundation for the alliance with the US. Political critics have said this is such a stretch that one might also facetiously try to maintain, that Chun Doo Hwan, a later well known military dictator in South Korea, contributed to democracy in Korea. President Moon suggests that one does not need to be a conservative nor a progressive to be a patriot. He appears to be trying to emphasize the deeper historical roots of Korean nationalism before it became bogged down in the partisan cold war politics that partitioned the country after the liberation in 1945. Older statements of Moon from before his presidential term such as wishing he could give Kim Won Bong an award, or have a drink with him are now the subject of conservative ridicule.

( Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 6.7 ) Title of program: President raises Kim Won Bong controversy. Picture shows Kim Won Bong (circle left) with Kim Il Sung (circle right). During a time of negotiations between North and South Korea, Kim Won Bong defected to the North in 1948; he was a member of the first Supreme People's Assembly; he was a member of the first North Korean cabinet censorship office. During the time of the Korean conflict in 1950 he was a member of the military committee. He had full authority as provincial representative in Pyongbukdo. In 1958 he was eliminated in the "Yunnan faction" purge.

( Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 6.7 ) Ideological tensions triggered in political circles- who is Kim Won Bong? 1898- Born in Miryang-si Gyeongsangnam-do, Korea, to a prosperous farming family; 1919- formed Heroic Corps; 1942- Deputy Commander of the Independence Army; 1944- Provisional Government cabinet minister and Chief of the Military Department.

Baek Beom (aka Kim Gu) was assassinated in 1949 allegedly at the instigation of political rival Syngmun Rhee's head of security. Baek Beom had also gone to North Korea to meet with Kim Il Sung in 1948. Unlike Kim Won Bong he broke with the communists. Kim Won Bong didn't return from his trip to North Korea in 1948 but became a part of the North Korean government and participated in the Korean War against the South. Kim Won Bong was purged from the North Korean government by Kim Il Sung in 1958.

It is said that during the provisional government period, Kim Gu didn't trust Kim Won Bong, and thought he was a "run of the mill socialist," whom he regarded warily. Kim Won Bong's anti-Japanese operations were apparently considered effective by the Japanese Imperial Government who offered a large cash reward for his capture that exceeded that offered for the capture of Kim Gu. The sore points for the South Korean conservatives are that Kim Won Bong's cardinal misdeeds include defection to the North Korean communist side in 1948, and his participation in the war against South Korea. While President Moon has said that patriotism doesn't have a right or left political orientation, Kim Won Bong's association with the communist government is the basis for the controversy. There is an inability among many in South Korea to dissociate Kim Won Bong's North Korean activities from his prior patriotic leadership against Japanese imperialism. It is quite apparent that Moon is trying to mold a new public perception of love of country that differs from the cold war perspective that has divided Korea physically and ideologically in many ways. Moon seems to be saying that was then, this is now, and wants to leave the wartime perspective of June 25, 1950, behind. Implied is that he'd like Kim Jong Un to do the same.

Note: apologies for multiple naming/spelling errors, especially, Kim Won-bong ( 김원봉, 金元鳳 ). 02.06.2022

The US-Russian Near Collision in the East China Sea

This is taken from the June 7 Reuters report which everyone has been talking about:

MOSCOW/TOKYO (Reuters) – Russia and the United States blamed each other for a near collision between their warships in East Asian waters on Friday with both countries accusing one another of dangerous and unprofessional behavior.

Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said Washington would lodge a formal diplomatic protest to Russia, while a senior Russian parliamentarian said such episodes could easily escalate tensions, which he said were already balanced “on a razor’s edge”.

Russia’s Pacific Fleet said that the USS Chancellorsville, a guided-missile cruiser, had come within just 50 meters (165 feet) of the Russian destroyer Admiral Vinogradov which was forced to take emergency action to avoid a collision, Russian news agencies reported…*

*U.S. and Russia trade blame over near collision in East Asian waters
Andrew Osborn, Tim Kelly
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-navy-incident/russia-says-u-s-warship-nearly-caused-collision-in-east-china-sea-news-agencies-idUSKCN1T80LR

The 7th Fleet has a poor track record lately when it comes to at sea collisions, so I’m taking the US statements with a grain of salt. Also the video released doesn’t tell the full story, but actually doesn’t put the US side of the story in a favorable light either. The video clip seems to be edited from a point in time after the potential collision problem had already started. I would like to see the relative ship positions, courses and speeds before this video began. Perhaps the Russian vessel was the overtaking vessel. On the other hand it looks as if the Russian vessel (from its wake in the still shot) (also in the video the Russian vessel is listing to port indicating it was turning away) appeared to turn away from the US vessel which had the Russian vessel on its starboard side. This has the appearance of a last clear chance maneuver by the Russian vessel to avoid collision.

Here are two relevant international rules for navigation for consideration:

“RULE 13
Overtaking
(a) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Rules of Part B, Sections I and II, any vessel overtaking any other shall keep out of the way of the vessel being overtaken.
(b) A vessel shall be deemed to be overtaking when coming up with another vessel from a direction more than 22.5 degrees abaft her beam, that
is, in such a position with reference to the vessel she is overtaking, that at night she would be able to see only the stern light of that vessel but neither of her sidelights.
(c) When a vessel is in any doubt as to whether she if overtaking another, she shall assume that this is the case and act accordingly.
(d) Any subsequent alteration of the bearing between the two vessels shall not make the overtaking vessel a crossing vessel within the meaning of these Rules or relieve her of the duty of keeping clear of the overtaken vessel until she is finally past and clear.”

“RULE 15
Crossing Situation
When two power-driven vessels are crossing so as to involve risk of collision, the vessel which has the other on her own starboard side shall keep out of the way and shall, if the circumstances of the case admit, avoid crossing ahead of the other vessel.”

Korea: The "Antiquated" Trip Wire Strategy of the CFC: End in Sight?

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 6.4) Title- Agreement overturned, the CFC will move to Pyeongtaek. "The last bastion of the trip wire broken?" Chart shows relative postions of the US Army's 210th Fire Brigade in Tongduchan and the blue and red emblem of the Combined Forces Command represents the Camp Humphreys, Pyeongtaek location. Banners say, "US Forces Korea trip wire moves south," and, "the security of US automatic entry (is a) Maginot line."

It appears from the discussion on Channel A News Top Ten today concerning the movement of the Combined Forces Command to Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, announced by Secretary of Defense, Patrick Shanahan, and South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong Du, that the 210th Artillery Brigade will ultimately be removed from Dongduchan South Korea at some point in the future. Movement of this remaining element of the 2nd Infantry Division from it's forward position north of the Han River and proximate to the demilitarized zone, would eliminate in view of some critics the benefit of the so called "trip wire" strategy which automatically triggers US military involvement in the defense of South Korea should a North Korean invasion or other attack occur across the DMZ. Other elements of the division had already been moved southward to Camp Humphreys along with US Forces Korea, and the United Nations Command.

The so-called trip wire strategy was long a visible source of stability and security to South Korean citizens knowing it's powerful US ally would automatically be directly involved in the defense of South Korea in the event of a North Korean attack. On the other hand the US military presence sometimes was a source of friction with the local community. According to a July 16, 2017 report of the English language Hankyoreh:

The division was originally slated to be relocated in its entirely to Pyeongtaek by 2016 in accordance with the Pyeongtaek relocation plan. But a decision was made at a South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting in Washington on Oct. 23, 2014, to leave the 210th Artillery Brigade there through 2020 while the South Korean military beefed up its firepower warfare capabilities.

At that point, three of six military installations in the Dongduchan area operated by the US Army had already been returned to the city.*

*http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/802974.html

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 6.4) Official ROK Ministry of Defense spokesperson, "The trip wire concept is is quite dated, we consider this to be an outdated idea."


An official statement from the ROK Ministry of Defense, today, disputed that the strength or readiness of the US- South Korean alliance would be adversely affected in any way by the change in the geographical dispositions of US forces, and said the concept of the trip wire engagement of US forces was out of date and not in keeping with modern warfare concepts. The issues have reemerged with the news that a South Korean general not from the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff would be established in Camp Humphreys as the US- ROK Combined Forces Commander in time of war in the future when preparations are completed and operational capabilities are considered to have been demonstrated. Naturally, the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff, would remain in Seoul in their MND headquarters near the old Yongsan garrison location.*

http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/896622.html

(Source-Channel A News Top Ten, 6.4) US to ROK, pass the three conditions if you want operational wartime control. 1. ROK military possess ability to perform core military capability of combined defense. 2. Possess readiness to carry out quick response capability against North Korean nuclear missiles. 3. Providing the Korean peninsula area to become a more secure environment.

Mission impossible? Sales pitch for US weapons systems? Inducement for integration with US- Japanese alliance? While the initial agreement called for transfer of wartime operational control of the Combined Forces Command to South Korea by 2022, these conditions as reported by Channel A News appear to present the prospect of indefinite delay in the transition to a South Korean controlled CFC. Secretary Shanahan congratulated the MOD on making progress in meeting conditions ahead of schedule. Nevertheless, the prospect for a timely transition seems uncertain under the proffered conditions in light of the current political and military situation in northeast Asia.

recon track

Source- Aircraft Spots

The "Seoul Patrol" south of DMZ frequently observed operating above the Seoul, Korea metropolitan area.

@AircraftSpots
May 29
More
USAF RC-135W 62-4126 TORA36 operating over the Korean Peninsula at 31,000 feet.

(Source- Shin In Kyun Defense Daily, 6.1) Shin reports Cobra Ball track from aircraftspots.


https://twitter.com/aircraftspots?lang=en

Seoul Patrol

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 4.1) Title: Surveillance of North Korea, US special reconnaissance aircraft arrive. Left to Right, Rivet Joint, Cobra Ball, and Combat Sent.

(Source- Shin In Kyun, Defense Daily, 4.1) Three types of reconnaissance aircraft gather, is a North Korean missile launch imminent?

(Source- Shin In Kyun, Defense Daily, 5.30) Rivet Joint communications and signals intelligence collection strategic reconnaissance aircraft dispatched from Offut AFB where it is attached to 55th Air Force Group, forward deployed to Okinawa, Japan, Kadena AFB.

(Source- Shin In Kyun, Defense Daily, 5.30) US Air Force top strategic reconnaissance aircraft Combat Sent.

Aircraft Spots put up a comment on March 20, 2019 advising followers:

RC135s, U2s, P8s, EP3s, and E3s are up over South Korea every day and they're not a sign of anything about to happen with #NorthKorea.

Start worrying when you see an RC-135-S Cobra Ball in the region or B-52s flying to the Korean Peninsula, which you'll find here first!*

*https://twitter.com/aircraftspots?lang=en

On March 29 (Z time) , Cobra Ball, arrived at Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan. So Shin In Kyun's Daily Defense program reported Aircraft Spots information, and Channel A News picked it up on their Top Ten program in South Korea. Since that time, Aircraft Spots has reported on what I've labelled the Seoul Patrol, on April 8, 15 (RC-135S East China Sea), 17, 18, 21, 28, continuing to May 7, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 24 (EP-3), 26 (EP-3) and 29th. Picking up on Aircraft Spots' comment Shin reported in his April 1 podcast on this subject matter that the arrival of Cobra Ball in Okinawa from Diego Garcia March 29 was an indication that ballistic missile launches from North Korea were imminent. Cobra Ball had been operating in the Indian Ocean region to observe India's anti-satellite missile launch on March 27. So the Aircraft Spots analysis apparently proved out as the anticipated ballistic missile launches occurred on May 4, and May 9 as described in previous reports here. (See US-DPRK: Mine's Bigger Than Yours, May 10.) Shin contends in his latest podcast, May 30, on this subject matter that the combined presence on May 29, of Rivet Joint and Combat Sent, in the region give the US national command authority and theater commanders unrivaled capability to react to any further ballistic missile launches, analyse them, and report intelligence assessments in a timely manner. Naturally, Shin anticipates further provocations in the form of North Korean ballistic missile test launches, perhaps of a longer range than the launches last month. Aircraft spots reports today suggests that Cobra Ball is still in the region.