Military talks at Panmunjeom to Discuss Trial Withdrawal of Heavy Weapons from DMZ.

Tomorrow there will be talks between military representatives of North and South Korea, concerning initial trial moves to withdraw heavier firearms from the DMZ. The initial proposal was to withdraw troops and guard posts to a distance of two kilometers from either side of the demarcation line between the two states. Agreement was not reached in an earlier negotiation. In tomorrow's meeting, the South will attempt to reach an agreement to simultaneously remove heavier firearms on both sides of the military demarcation line associated with guard posts in a limited area.

This is intended as a small demonstration of how the two sides can proceed to remove machine guns from guard posts to lower the possibility of gunfights across the demarcation lines triggered by incidents of a non-combat nature. It is expected that the deescalation process could take place in a trial area near the JSA.

This is a graphic associated with the earlier proposal:

In an earlier Channel A broadcast on these talks, the North was said to have as many as 250 guardposts and the South as few as 50. Any mutual withdrawal would have put the greater burden on the North to withdraw 2 kilometers on their side.

In an another earlier broadcast, JTBC depicted a larger number of guardposts and troops for the North that would have been affected by the earlier South Korean proposal. 160 for the North and 60 for the Southern side of the DMZ. They were also said to be 10,000 troops on the Northern side as opposed to South Korea's 1,800 within the 2 km zone. Obviously, the numbers are estimated.

See my other post on Channel A reporting of North Korean proposals for conventional arms measures dated June 25: Five North Korean Conventional Military Proposals: Does it Hurt to Ask?

Update: Xinhua reports no agreement reached.

US Japanese Joint Air Exercise on Armistice Anniversary

On July 27, two B 52s from Guam joined Japanese F15s in the eastern portion of the Sea of Japan and flew the route above according to the South Korean Channel A Top Ten News program and diagram. The program indicated that the B52s were the "nuclear capable" variant. July 27 was the anniversary of the Korean Armistice signing, and the date scheduled for remains of US servicemembers killed in the Korean conflict to be returned to Osan airbase in South Korea. The analysis on the program suggested that the indicated track was of a length and duration to practice a mission to attack North Korea. Near the end of the Channel A segment, Sen. Graham's remarks on July 29, were cited as an example of the US two track policy to encourage progress in negotiations with North Korea while exerting maximum pressure. Graham advised the administration to tell North Korea that there was a military option if they were not forthcoming in the pending denuclearization process.

In another segment, Channel A reported Chinese Military Y-9G aircraft entered the South Korean ADIZ and passed through the Korea Straits airspace into the East Sea/Sea of Japan on the 27th, 28th and 29th of July on four separate missions. The aircraft is described variously as a reconnaissance/electronic warfare aircraft and appeared to be monitoring military activity in the region.

Prominent South Korean Progressive Leader, No Hoe Chan, Dies in Apparent Suicide.

His body was discovered this morning in front of the seventeen story apartment building where he and his family resided. No was the leader of the small progressive Justice Party and an elected representative in the National Assembly since 2004. He was a long time progressive leader who had been a leader in various opposition parties and arose out of the labor movement in Pusan. No was implicated in the so called "True King," scandal because he allegedly received illegal political contributions similar to others related to the political influence peddling web site. In the suicide note, No appears to have admitted receiving political contributions from True King, totaling 40 million won, in a manner which violated contribution laws. He contended that he did not make promises to get the money nor provide consideration having received it, although foolish and stupid to have done so. Just before his death he denied receiving illegal contributions. He was shaken by the investigation and not able to face the damage to his reputation and party. He apologized to his wife, family and colleagues.

Channel A Top Ten News reported a threat in May 2017 recorded on the True King website, threatening to bring down the Justice Party including No, his close associate Representative Sim Sang Jung and her "group." She was distraught at the memorial service and unable to speak. No's family has received condolences from all party representatives and tens of thousands of admirers. Representatives on both sides of the aisle have been harshly critical of the True King investigation which as yet has failed to conclude their investigation of the right wing virtual site which appears to be a political black operation.

South Korean National Security Advisor's Washington Visit- a Mistake?

Chung Eui Yong avoided questions about the results of his most recent trip to Washington, D.C., to meet with National Security Advisor John Bolton, other than to say their talks had been productive. Specifically, he refused to answer the question about whether he had discussed a declaration to end the Korean War at the meeting. An anonymous South Korean foreign office news source said that Chung's trip to Washington was a mistake. According to this source, he was told, "Don't persuade us, persuade North Korea first," which sounds a lot like a rebuke. This raises Moon's recent comment at the Singapore ASEAN conference concerning the stalemate, of "which comes first, the chicken or the egg?" This the South Korean president's reference to the timing of denuclearizaton measures desired by the US and UN, and establishment of a "peace regime," on the Korean peninsula, desired by the North Koreans, including a declaration that the Korean war is over. As the reporter at the airport persisted in his question about the declaration of the end of the Korean war issue, Chung just made a wry smile, and said goodbye.

As the US returned to a hard line in the negotiations with North Korea, South Korean Kang Kyung Hwa met with Pompeo at the UN, to make a "no daylight" presentation on stiffening the sanctions regime on North Korea. Her normally serious demeanor was replaced by an ebullient touchy feely posing with Secretary Pompeo which seemed oddly inappropriate under the circumstances. Sources in the White House had made suggestions that South Korea somehow shared responsibility for sanctions violations involving importation of coal from two foreign registry ships from Panama and Sierra Leone, respectively, that were allegedly transhipped from Russia, disguising the identity of the North Korean bulk shipment. The issue was why didn't the South Koreans investigate the brokers and seize the shipments?

Apparently, Kang requested concessions from the US regarding pending issues agreed to between North and South Korea at Panmunjeom. One requested exception to the sanctions being the exception for the shipment of military communications materials and vehicles to North Korea for communications between North Korean and South Korean military commands aimed at avoiding provocations or incidents that could jeopardize security. The second exemption involves resources necessary to support a civil liason office at the Kaeseong Industrial zone in North Korea. The third exemption requested was for materials, equipment and other resources necessary to renovate the Kumgangsan Resort facility to be used for the separate families reunion schedule for August 20. This latter event is currently on hold on the North Korean side, who have been critical of Moon's ASEAN speech for merely "chanting in unison" with his "American master" and flippantly advising Kim what to do to avoid a "serious judgement from international society."

It is unlikely that National Security Advisor Chung's trip to meet Bolton was a mistake, but it may have been futile. The discussion about what the North Korean dissatisfaction is really all about has been covered in South Korean media and couldn't be clearer to anyone who follows North Korean official media. It's definitely not something to which the hardliners in the administration are receptive, as they line up to conform to the avalanche of criticism in the US media after the summit and the suspension of joint military exercises.

Before the summit when Trump and Pompeo met with Kim Yong Chol, the Vice Chairman of State Affairs in North Korea, they told him they would consider an announcement ending the Korean War. In fact, Pompeo had already announced publicly that there would be no CVID, without guarantees of North Korean security, CVIG, complete verifiable irreversible guarantee of (North Korean) system security.

Shortly after the summit in Singapore, they again demonstrated that they understood North Korean concerns about security and the notion of reciprocity and trust building by suspending joint military exercises with South Korea.

After the wave of criticism here in the US from the usual interested parties and opposition, Pompeo and Trump retreated for political cover to the "one sided, ganster like demand," for nuclear disarmament by the North.

When Pompeo got to Pyongyang for post summit negotiations, he refused to consider North Korean requests oriented toward normalizing diplomatic relations and ending the war. That put everything on hold. It is likely it was known this would happen before Pompeo arrived in Pyongyang.

It's possible that the serviceman's remains repatriation issue is still on track. S.Korean news reports on the 21st suggested that the talks had been successful. The date set for repatriation is July 27, the 65th Anniversary of the Armistice.

Here's another indication that the North Korean's aren't giving up on what the US promised at the summit in Singapore.

"A declaration of the end of the war to relieve tension on the Korean peninsula, and to construct a peace regime, is the first process. In order to build trust with the United States, this is an indispensable demand."

Perhaps the White House needs to reread the joint statement President Trump signed in Singapore with Kim Jong Un.

Park Administration Martial Law Plan Under Investigation

Channel A Top Ten news graphic shows plan for dispatch of brigade level forces to major government institutions and Kanghwamoon on Seoul, Korea map. Among the government building locations are the Blue House, the Constitutional Court, the National Defense Ministry, the National Administration, and the National Assembly.

The Korean media have been reporting for several days about the plan for martial law hatched by the prior administration during the massive candlelight demonstrations in Seoul and the pending impeachment of Park Geun Hye from the fall of 2016 through the spring of 2017. There were plans for military occupation of the capital, Seoul, at Kanghwamoon, the site of the demonstrations in the heart of Seoul, and at Yoido, the location of the National Assembly. Brigade level armored forces were included in the plans, with tanks, armored personnel carriers and special forces to be deployed within the capital. The total number of troops would have been in the thousands. In addition there were specific directions for prevention of a quorum from being formed for decision making in the National Assembly, and investigating and detaining assembly members who participated in "anti-government" demonstrations. There were also comprehensive detailed plans for imposing censorship on a broad range South Korean media and blocking SNS and social media. The planning document for a martial law declaration was sixty seven pages long. A special investigative team has been formed to investigate the actions of the National Security Command, the military officials who may have been involved, and the roles of former prime minister at the time, Hwang Kyo Ahn, and the former President Park Geun Hye. According to Arirang News, the Ministry of Defense appointed the Special Investigative Team.

The Minju Dang (democracy party) is calling for the disbanding of the National Security Command within the Ministry of Defense. The Democracy and Peace Party, and the Justice Party are also calling the plan to impose martial law outrageous and unacceptable. The Korea Freedom Party (conservative) calls the current investigation a politically motivated trick. The other conservative opposition party, Barun Mirae Dang, calls the investigation a scheme to bolster the falling support for President Moon in a time of economic challenges for the ruling party. The latter two parties are the offspring of the Saenuri party that formed the Park government.

The document detailing the plan for martial law and potentially, a coup d'etat, was released by the Blue House. A Channel A Top Ten news report today indicates that the plan, in its own language, provided for a declaration of martial law to support "constitutional order," and that the plan was formulated to examine a martial law plan in the event that the impeachment process against former President Park was dismissed. Today, President Moon visited the National Intelligence Service, and praised the intelligence agency for its leadership role in bringing about a safe Olympics, and the historic subsequent summits at Panmunjeom and Singapore with North Korea.

Part of the massive candlelight demonstrations at Kanghwamoon, in Seoul, Korea, date unspecified. On some weekends, the peaceful assemblies were estimated to exceed one million people.

Foreign Policy Establishment Fights Against "Commander-in-Chief"

Two things are apparent relating the Russian hysteria ploy here in the US to the ongoing hysteria over the North Korean summit. In each case, Trump is undermining the establishment interests in the respective administrations of US Empire in Europe and Asia. Emphasizing the possibility of cooperation with Russia rather than conflict, is the equivalent of declaring an end to the Korean conflict. In the one case, the raison d'etre of NATO is threatened, along with all the US military bases in Europe and on Russia's border, the military contracts associated with the pre-positioned arms depots, arms sales agreements with our allies, and outfitting of US forces in Europe, and necessarily, the associated military commands.

The second case is that a declaration of the end of the Korean conflict, removes the overt justification for our alliances with South Korea and Japan. This is another Empire in its own right, established after WWII, comparable to NATO if not as big. US military commands comprised of approximately 80,000 troops, scores of military bases, task forces, and so on are permanently established in those two states. These institutions and the personnel and corporations who thrive on their operations are threatened. Predictably, the Pentagon, and the entire national security complex is in fear. The politicians who derive their campaign funds from the corporate contractor side of the largest defense and national security budget in the history of the world are frightened they will lose their regional cash cows. So what is the implication of this threat to the powers that be? Trump has to go. He for whatever his faults, inadequacies, and foibles are, is making the same mistake that John F. Kennedy made- he thinks he's the commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces, and the formulator of US foreign policy.

The most recent South Korean news reports, July 14, 15 and 16, confirm my analysis of the Pompeo- Kim Yong Chol meeting in Pyongyang. Namely, the US would not accept a proposal for announcement of an end of the Korean conflict. Ostensibly, not until there are substantial steps taken to denuclearize by North Korea. A Japanese news report, today, said that Pompeo confronted Kim Yong Chol, with the reports about the suspected uranium enrichment facilty in Chollima, which he denied, and construction at the Hamhung missile plant, which the Vice Chairman characterized as storm preparation.

Ironically, the latest Newsweek article on North Korea characterizes the relationship between the US and North Korea as a thaw in relations, and refrains from the usual polemics. In addition, rather than referring to the negotiations as being an unsuccessful attempt at denuclearization it characterizes the negotiations as being about "peace."

The article's nominal subject was the North Korean announcement of the prospective release of "criminals against the country," guilty of unspecified crimes against the North Korean regime to celebrate the "nation's" 70th anniversary. The prospective amnesty is consistent with the July 13 No Dong Sin Moon (Workers Daily) statement calling for the clearing away derisive anachronistic ploys focused on human rights from the opposing governing officials critical of North Korea.

https://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-will-release-prisoners-convicted-crimes-against-country-people-1026337

Declaration of the End of the Korean War?

The most recent South Korean news reports, July 14, and 15, confirmed that the US side, at the Pyongyang meeting, would not accept the North Korean proposal for an announcement in the near future of the end of the Korean conflict, not until measures are taken to denuclearize by North Korea. The US negotiating position was confirmed by a US State Department official, Mark Lambert, Korea section chief, in a Channel A news video clip shown above. South Korean President Moon Jae In, at the ASEAN conference in Singapore, referred to the which comes first problem, "the chicken or the egg," in relation to the current impasse. This impasse was probably known to the working level negotiators before the meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Yong Chol, in Pyongyang. Trump's statements in Washington DC, in early June on the occasion of meeting with Kim Yong Chol, induced the summit by appearing to accept a reciprocal negotiating process to meet North Korea security concerns when the president publicly discussed the possibility of declaring an end to the Korean conflict on the White House lawn.(See my July 12, discussion below, Kim Didn't Get "Everything he Wanted at the Summit.") South Korean reports suggest their representatives will attempt to intermediate the gap between the two sides. It is anticipated that more working level talks will take place in August, with the possibility of a turning point in September. Of course, turning point means it can go either way. Kim apparently has been offered the promise of an appearance and an address at the UN General Assembly in September if he plays ball.

This morning at Panmunjeom, a high level meeting took place at the request of North Korean military representatives with United Nations Command/US Forces Korea representatives to discuss the return of remains of US servicemen killed in the Korean conflict and possibly other military issues related to the proposal to declare an end of the Korean conflict. This is the first high level meeting between North Korean military officers and UNC officers in over nine years. After failing to show at the scheduled meeting at Panmunjeom on July 11, where the US military representatives were left waiting all day, the North Koreans said they weren't prepared and requested a communication line to the UNC, and further requested that the next meeting be at the general officer level.

Change in Byung Jin Emphasis to Economic Development

Kim's Personal Letter to Trump

Competing Chinese and Russian Commercial Interests in North Korea

Depicted in recent News Special Report graphic is a joint economic project of Russia, North Korea, and South Korea, planned to resume as a part of the three belt strategy that the South Korean and North Korean economic representatives are working on right now in North Korea. The trading routes are depicted in the graphic for dry bulk shipping. Russian resources can be moved by rail from the port of Hasan in Russia to Rason (Najin), North Korea, and then shipped to South Korean industrial cities as shown. The resumption of the project is dependent on the removal of sanctions. Moon emphasized in a presentation in Singapore that all economic development opportunities in North Korea are dependent on denuclearization. Rason is a special economic zone which the Russians and Chinese have invested in. Discussion of plans to expand operations may reflect the new emphasis on economic development policy presented in the North Korea media.

Coincidentally, there is a timely commentary posted at 38North.org, titled Putin, Trump and North Korea: The Road to Washington Leads Through Asia, by KENNETH B. DEKLEVA M.D, which addresses contemporary Russian interests in Korea:

"These include Russian political, economic, regional and long-term strategic interests, as well as its desire to play a constructive role (dovetailing with America’s interest) in the Korean peace and denuclearization processes. In the long-term, Russia’s emerging role has the potential to weaken America’s political and economic interests in Northeast Asia, while highlighting Russia’s presence as a counterweight to China’s influence."

https://www.38north.org/2018/07/kdekleva071218/

A July 13 documentary video from South Korean broadcasters (VJ 특공대) portrayed current economic activity in Dandong China, just across from Sinuiju, North Korea, the western belt crossing point for North Korean Chinese commerce. There is moderate tourist traffic in Dandong, as Chinese interest in North Korea increases, and as the Chinese government eases the restrictions on pedestrian and tourist traffic across the Dandong bridge for North Koreans. Trains from Pyongyang to Dandong run once a day, and are reportedly full. South Koreans can travel to Dandong via cruise ship from Inchon. South Korean tourism in China is on the rise after the tension over the US THAAD ABM deployment in South Korea was eased by President Xi. There is speculation in Dandong real estate prices with the prospect of greater commerce when sanctions are relieved. Prices for new apartments are running about 900 to 1000 dollars a square meter. Construction of apartment buildings is very active. Retail sales of North Korean folk medicine, alcohol, cigarettes, cosmetics and traditional women's garments are possible again as North Koreans take the goods across the border in suitcases and backpacks. One upscale North Korean neng myun (cold noodle) restaurant with traditional entertainment in the Chinese border city is doing a brisk business again. The rise in real estate prices is attributed to both the thaw in North South Korean relations, and Kim's summit with President Xi. The "new" Dandong Sinuiju bridge built at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars by China, apparently still remains dormant as the North Korean approaches are not constructed.

Kim Didn't Get "Everything he Wanted," at the Summit

When Kim Yong Chol was at the White House in early June, Trump told him that the US would consider an announcement to end the Korean conflict. This falls in the category of CVIG which is the term Pompeo came up with, complete verifiable irreversible guarantee (of North Korean security). This negotiating concept represented an acceptance of a reciprocity principle. Reciprocity was demonstrated, at least on a temporary basis, when the joint military exercises were suspended. When Pompeo was meeting with Chol in Pyongyang, in reaction to the tsunami of criticism of the summit in the US, about the summit and the exercise suspension, he blew off the proposal of an announcement to end the state of war and went strictly with his allegedly new formula FFVD. The latter is a superficial name change that failed to disguise the return to a unilateral ultimatum to denuclearize. This is the same hardline approach that almost derailed the summit before it happened. There won't be any denuclearization without dealing with the security guarantee issues for North Korea. Currently, the press and all other interested parties are to the right of Pompeo and Trump on this, so Pompeo retreated to the hardliner position which predictably failed.

The game being "played" in the current vernacular is not over. The sanctions are still in effect, and are having a crushing effect on the North's despotic government. The patronage system of the dictatorship has been impaired for some time now by the economic impact of the UN sanctions and the poor harvest last year, expected again this year. Soldiers in North Korea are literally starving. The propaganda and diplomacy of North Korea has been geared toward promises of economic improvement that need to be delivered, soon. Recent changes in North Korean military and civil leadership also suggest the need to consolidate control of the armed forces and the need to shift from the military leg to the economic leg of the "byung jin" policy.

The US can deal with Kim and continue on with this process or deal with some unknown generals in bunkers. Kim desperately needs the economic advances possible with denuclearization to achieve the economic improvements needed to bolster his current rule. It isn't like the military pressure is off North Korea either. The decapitation teams and the targeting and command and control resources necessary for a theater nuclear war are standing by in South Korea and Japan and ready to go on an order from Washington.

It's still the same dispute about how the negotiations will go forward. It's too early to call these negotiations a failure, but if they do fail, what's the alternative to negotiations?

Economic Development Plan for the Korean Peninsula

As an outcome of the summit at Panmunjum between President Moon Jae In, and Kim Jong Un, there are representatives from South Korea meeting with North Koreans this week and later throughout the month, to plan economic development of the peninsula focused around three economic belts to achieve economic integration goals for a single market. As the graphic above (from Channel A news this morning) shows there will be the Yellow Sea economic belt on the western side of the peninsula, and an East Sea economic belt in the east. The third belt is the region along the DMZ, referred to as a peace cooperative belt. The goal is to build a a North South economic community. Railways are the focus of the two coastal belts. The requirements to reconnect railways severed by the DMZ will be explored, and inspections will be undertaken to evaluate the work necessary to get the lines to the North and other Asian markets opened. Proposals for withdrawal of military forces and weapons from the Cooperative Peace Zone in the area of the current DMZ are related to the third east west belt between North and South.

Other aspects of the market planned for North Korea involve development of region on the East Sea from Wonsan to Sokcho as a resort area similar to Cheju island in South Korea. Further north in the eastern region, the area from Sinpo to Dancheon, rich in natural resources would be subject to joint industrial development focused on energy and natural resources. It is interesting to note in this regard that Sinpo is well known among military analysts for its naval base at which SLBMs are being developed.

In the western region, Sinuiju, the North Korean city on the Chinese border where a large part of cross border trade takes place, (near Dandong China), is planned to be developed as an international trading zone, "like Hong Kong." Further south, the Nampo region in North Korea would serve as a special North South cooperative zone for production of energy.

Withdrawal from the DMZ?

South Korean Ministry of Defense denies the story that South Korean military units deployed in the vicinity of the DMZ will withdraw ten kilometers from the Armistice line as a step in a four phase plan to demilitarize the area (and turn it into a "peace zone?)

Disappointing Results of Pompeo Follow up Meeting in Pyongyang

JTBC screenshot. Pompeo's Mission Impossible and returning "empty handed?" Discussion of ICBM engine test site and return of US servicemember remains postponed. FFVD rejected.


I was looking at YTN news this morning over at youtube after having read the English language media postmortems of the Pompeo visit, and while the visit was relatively unproductive, I think the signficance of the remarks from the North Korean foreign office have been exaggerated. The ministry said that the US approach was still CVID at the meeting, and was one sided and "gangster like." I saw that one other published English translation was rapacious. It seems to me that Choi Son Hui or Ri Yong Ho from the foreign ministry wrote this statement personally. It was probably Choi. This is her style. a "gangster mentality," (강도적인 비핵화 gangster like denuclearization; 강도적심리가 gangster pscyhology.) Earlier in the news coverage I had noticed that in the video of the conference room there was a sign that said "stuff only" over a door in the room. So I checked the Chinese translation at KCNA, where there can be no ambiguity, it is "gangster" in the Chinese translation as well rather than strength, intensity or force. Some of the language in the official announcement from the foreign ministry is very similar to Kim Gae Kwan's apologia for Choi Son Hui published on May 24, 2018, which suggests that demands for unilateral nuclear disarmament from the US are considered a red line for North Korea. ref: http://www.nkleadershipwatch.org/2018/05/25/kim-kye-gwan-issues-statement-on-us-dprk-summit/

In any event the YTN coverage reveals that the essential difference is still the same, the one bundle approach of the US, versus the step by step, reciprocal moves by both sides that the North Koreans want. In any event, the North should have taken a substantial step or steps after the US suspended military exercises. By unilaterally suspending the joint military exercises with South Korea, the US suggested that a tit for tat approach to building trust, and eliminating the nuclear threat could be managed. However, two things happened at the meeting in Pyongyang, Pompeo reverted to the CVID type approach, calling it FFVD, which is a distinction with only a nominal difference, and the North failed to reciprocate to the US South Korean suspension of military exercises, criticizing it as "reversible."

This was the North Korean offer: (this is their English translation of their own proposal at Cho Sun Choong Ang Tong Sin at the official North Korean KCNA web site):

"The DPRK side, during the talks, put forward the constructive proposals to seek a balanced implementation of all the provisions of the Joint Statement out of its firm willingness to remain faithful to the implementation of the spirit and agreed points of the DPRK-U.S. summit meeting and talks.

These include taking wide-ranging proactive steps of simultaneous actions in a respective manner such as realizing multilateral exchanges for improved relations between the DPRK and the U.S., making public a declaration on the end of war first on the occasion of the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, dismantling the test ground of high thrust engine to make a physical verification of the suspension of ICBM production as part of denuclearization steps and making an earliest start of the working-level talks for recovering POW/MIA remains."

The Exception Proves the Rule: Far Right Manifesto for War with North Korea

Channel A News Top Ten graphic: Mission Impossible- more difficult than Tom Cruise's mission

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/07/09/kim-jong-un-singapore-summit-north-korea-wins/https:/

The National Review opinion, Kim Wins in Singapore, is a far right manifesto for war with North Korea. It includes just about every criticism levied at Trump's so called surrender to Kim Jong Un at Singapore. The opinion is representative of many alleged "experts" in analysis of North Korea. Many are part of the conservative think tank establishment, the right wing establishment, former CIA officials, etc. However the article in the National Review emanating from the right wing American Enterprise Institute, Kim Wins in Singapore, written by Nicholas Eberstat, had to include the caveat below:

"In fairness, we should acknowledge that the Singapore summit may not be quite as awful for the American side as events to date suggest. It is possible, for example, that the U.S. secured meaningful deliverables that have not been publicly announced. But as my American Enterprise Institute colleague Dan Blumenthal has emphasized, the North Korean media would have to ready Kim’s subjects and elite for any concession or change in policy worthy of the name — and there is, as yet, no evidence of this. "

Actually the Chosun Daily online had an article last week that acknowledged that the North would have to come forward with some reciprocal concessions as a result of the US suspension of military exercises.

Additionally, the game being "played" in the current vernacular is not over. The sanctions are still in effect, and are having a crushing effect on the North's despotic government. The patronage system of the dictatorship has been impaired for several months by the economic impact of the sanctions and the poor harvest last year. Soldiers in North Korea are literally starving. The propaganda and diplomacy of North Korea has been geared toward promises of economic improvement that need to be delivered, soon. There are signs of instability in the current leadership as a result of this and the current policy changes ostensibly undertaken by Kim Jong Un. The issue being discussed in South Korean media is whether or not the alleged resistance in North Korean military circles is the pretext or excuse for delay in denuclearization or has some basis in fact. AEI "expert" Dan Blumenthal mentions the North Korean media do need to ready the subjects and elites to the new policy. Recent changes in North Korean military and civil leadership also suggest the need to consolidate control of the armed forces and the need to shift from the military leg to the economic leg of the "byung jin" policy.

The US can deal with Kim and continue on with this process or deal with some unknown generals in bunkers. Kim desperately needs the economic advances possible with denuclearization to achieve the economic improvements to justify his current rule. It isn't like the military pressure is off North Korea either. The decapitation teams and the targeting and command and control resources necessary for a theater nuclear war are standing by in South Korea and Japan and ready to go on an order from Washington. This was reported on A Channel in South Korea this week.

It's too early to call these negotiations a failure, but if they do fail, John Bolton and his ilk are standing by to unleash war in Asia. The National Review brings up the throw away issue of racist socialism in North Korea to add to its evil dimensions, but the fact is that racism based upon ethnic identity is endemic throughout Asia, as well as the US. Additionally, the concept of "min jok" (people, race, ethnicity) has always been an key element of nationalism, and is the fundamental flaw of many states today, particularly in Europe.

Moon Chung In, the unofficial adviser to the Blue House on North Korean affairs suggests that it is unlikely that Pompeo will return from his visit to Pyongyang without concessions from North Korea.

US Pressure Before Follow Up Negotiations with North Korea

Anticipated next steps for the two sides:
North - report nuclear warheads, report ICBMs, cease nuclear activities.

US- Establish liason office, Ease sanctions

I'm not sure how likely the latter is. The establishment of liason offices in an attempt to normalize relations is discussed in depth at 38North.org in a recent June 29 article.

Bolton is up to his tricks. His model for negotiations, which really aren't negotiations at all, is not the model the administration or rather, Pompeo and his people are following. Bolton described a timetable for North Korean performance which Pompeo specifically rejected. He's also expanding the scope of the negotiations by using the term WMD.

Trump said to NK, "take your time." Time is actually against Kim at this point. He's making economic promises domestically that need to be kept. In order to do that, he needs to advance the "denuclearization process" concretely, in order to get some sanctions relief. Without sanctions relief, he will be hurting politically. Official North Korean media are raising expectations of the regime, in terms of economic performance, that can't be met, while the sanctions are still in effect. It appears that Kim is trying to portray himself as an economic development leader if a not a reformer, this will be a difficult sell without sanctions relief. JTBC news reported yesterday that an anonymous (S.Korean) government source told them, that it was the government's assessment that the North would find it difficult to back away from a commitment to denuclearize at this point. A substantial schedule of North South joint economic planning events is underway.

This negotiating process is hanging in the balance right now.

While US Ambassador Sang Kim is in S.Korea now, probably getting ready to meet with working level negotiators from North Korea, Sen. Graham is issuing death threats against Kim Jong Un. (Arirang English news reported that Sang Kim met Choi Son Hee the North Korea rep for the nuclear talks at the working level in Panmunjeom July 1.)

A nuclear program decades in the making cannot change much in three weeks. Many experts agree, that North Korean nuclear armed ICBMs are not perfected in terms of reaching the US, and that the suspension of nuclear tests and missile tests was very timely.

Alarmist articles in the US mainstream press, implicitly or explicitly describing the summit as a failure are part of the framing of the expected meeting of Pompeo with North Korean negotiators to pressure Kim to make substantial concessions. That's giving the tone of these recent articles the best possible interpretation.

미국의 압박 American pressure in advance of the anticipated negotiations this week is how the South Korean media are describing this.