"Beyond Utopia"

This week @IndependentLens features the documentary film Beyond Utopia produced by a former CIA agent and a right wing neocon about an evangelical pastor saving North Koreans. Deep thanks to progressive documentary filmmakers for this brilliant critique https://t.co/pOIc6HCYVg

— Christine Ahn (@christineahn) January 7, 2024

This is an excerpt from the open letter from Deeann Borshay Liem to the producer of the next US propaganda film about North Korea-

An Open Letter to Independent Lens about “Beyond Utopia”

We are concerned that Beyond Utopia presents an unbalanced and inaccurate narrative about Korean history and North Korean society. While the film’s verité sequences of the Roh and Lee families’ plight are compelling, noticeably lacking is any mention of the ongoing impact of the Korean War and U.S. policies that have destabilized the livelihood and well-being of North Korea’s people — factors that cause families like the Rohs and Lees to leave the country.

While an armistice stopped the fighting in 1953, a peace treaty was never signed. North and South Korea, as well as North Korea and the United States, are still at war. Ongoing hostilities have resulted in the hyper-militarization of North and South Korea and the remilitarization of Japan, threatening to engulf the region in renewed fighting. These factors contribute to North Korea’s siege mentality, nuclear weapons development, and the economic hardships faced by the civilian population.

(Source- 김어준의 겸손은힘들다 뉴스공장 2024년 1월 11일 youtube) Police washing away evidence (blood) at the scene of the attempted assassination of Lee Jae-myung soon after it happened

Very few people are doing any in depth coverage outside South Korea on the January 2 attempted assassination by Kim Jin-seong of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. The coverage is superficial and the investigation by the Busan Police is disgraceful. The political assassinations of Martin Luther King and Malcolm X came to mind, as well as the assassinations of JFK and RFK. One South Korean youtube analsyt compared Lee's attempted assassination to that of one of Korea's most revered independence leaders, Kim Ku. Kim was assassinated June 26, 1949, by a young ROK army lieutenant during the administration of US installed strongman Syngman Rhee. Kim Ku's assassin was sentenced to life in prison, but was released after one year, restored to active service during the Korean War, rising to the rank of colonel. There were connections to US counterintelligence and Rhee's white terror organization. The assassin himself stated in his confession that he had been ordered to do so by Rhee's national security office.

Multiple South Korean opposition leaders and political analysts (on independent media) have pointed out the superficial nature of the current police investigation, which appears to be a coverup. Police washed away the blood from Lee's life threatening wound at the scene within minutes in attempt to support the media contention that the wound didn't bleed much and wasn't serious. The weapon used by Kim Jin-seong, in the attempted assassination, was a hunting knife which appears to have been filed down to a two edged dagger. Fortunately an alert democratic assembly member Jeong Cheong-rae took photos of the pool of blood with his hand phone before police washed it away. Lee was released from the Seoul National Hospital eight days after the January 2 attack. He hasn't fully recovered yet. There has been ridiculous media hype and excessive politically motivated recrimination concerning Lee's transfer from Pusan National University Hospital to Seoul National Universal Hospital for vascular surgery on the day of the attack. It's alleged that Lee received privileged treatment, that he shouldn't have been moved by the 119 helicopter, that his wound wasn't serious, that democratic party members defamed the reputation of the Busan hospital, and interfered with its operations. Typical of right wing motivated moves, a lawsuit has been filed. National Assembly representive Jeong Cheong-rae has publicly criticized the suit against him as one of the respondents and refuted the contentions as completely unfounded in fact.

There are so many loose ends and investigative irregularities that the opposition party has been openly criticizing it as a premature attempt unsupported by proper investigation to convince the public the attempted murder on Lee, characterized in the media as an "attack," was an individual crime rather than a conspiracy. The police effort appears to be directed from above which is not unexpected given the Yoon Seok-yeol's track record in this respect. The youtube analyst "Professor Kim," is predicting that the suspect will be assassinated in jail because he failed in the attack, and knows too much.

A Sincheonji supporter caught on video with the attacker on Jan. 1, made a throat cutting gesture with his hand while talking to the suspect.* When interviewed by police he obviously lied about their conversation and relationship. I'm basing this opinion on statements from two other witnesses which are inconsistent with Sincheonji witness's statement to police. Police also released a suspect in his 70s who agreed with the attacker to forward an 8 page document the attacker Kim Jin-seong, is said to have prepared to disseminate after Lee's murder was consummated. If this isn't aiding the assailant in his plot to murder Lee, nothing is. The police won't release the document. Even the reason the confidential evidence is not releassed is confidential (“비공개 이유도 비공개”).

* 출처: [단독] 李 암살 미수범, 범행 전날 신천지 신도 만났다-서울의 소리 - https://www.amn.kr/46566
서울의소리=윤재식 기자, 정병곤 기자 1.10.24

* Source OhMyNews youtube 1.09.24 이재명 대표 정치테러 진상 중대 증언 "무서웠다. 공범 있을 거라 생각" 살인미수범과 동승 1시간
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWE9UwFLw2U

Because the political opposition's back has not been broken as intended, there is a lot of concern that the Yoon administration will endeavor to raise military tensions with North Korea further to incite a crisis before the April 10 general election for the National Assembly. It's likely social media in South Korea are being manipulated by intelligence elements and radical conservative groups such as the Taeguki, to brand the opposition as internal enemies, communists and so on. Anyone who opposes Yoon is being branded as pro-communist in this effort. ( Yoon and his ministers have actually promoted this view by making statements to the same effect publicly in the recent past). The pro-US and pro-Japanese elements in South Korea are getting desperate as the election approaches. There is transparent manipulation of media polls to suggest Yoon's popularity is rising which is unlikely under the current circumstances. It is also suggested that public fear of the Yoon administration is affecting poll results.

Yoon's government may fall if a 200 seat opposition coalition forms after the April election (enough to overcome his vetoes). Even if the number of party assembly seats doesn't change much, the emerging authoritarian dictatorship will have to take further brazen moves in the open to secure its power. The US military structure in South Korea and northeast Asia may weaken somewhat, particularly the so called Trilateral Partnership if the conservative party PPP collapses in April. Lee is the architect of the potential return of a sovereign government by the people in South Korea, often associated with the independence movement in the public mind. Camp David is the Biden/neocon/mic "great accomplishment" which cannot be pushed back, so more bad developments may be anticipated.


note- I made minor changes to this original draft Jan 12, 12 noon EST, to identify Lee's attacker by name, and to clarify the Yoon administration's position.

Concerning the attempted assassination of Lee Jae-myung

Half way decent article from a few days ago (Hankyoreh)-

Opposition leader’s attacker switched parties 10 months ago after years of conservative affiliation

The real estate agent surnamed Kim who attacked Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung on Tuesday in Busan has been found to have been a member of the People Power Party (PPP) for several years before joining the Democratic Party 10 months ago.

Kim’s acquaintances have testified that he frequently joined the far-right “Taegeukgi rallies” and enjoyed watching political content on YouTube.

...

According to officials from both the PPP and the Democratic Party, Kim was a member of the United Future Party, the predecessor of the PPP, and joined the Democratic Party in March 2023 and remained a member until recently.*

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1123030.html

The rest of the article is worth reading.

Because the campaign season is upon them, the two major political parties are under pressure internally to put up or shut up on their internal divisions. In the democratic party, the majority party in the legislature, that Lee represents as the party leader, the soobak faction or DINOs are the major problem threatening democrataic election prospects internally. Of about 30 of these National Assembly members, 5 or 6 members have publicly been threatening to split from the party because they hate Lee Jae-myung as a progressive. They've tried to get rid of him recently by voting with conservative PPP members (and Yoon's prosecutors) to remove Lee's legislative immunity. It didn't work. The judge at a subsequent pre-trial conflinement hearing ruled against Yoon's prosecutors. The soobak faction of the democratic party wanted wanted Lee Jae-myung (LJM) to step down from the democratic party leader position, and to appoint an emergency committee led by someone else to lead the democratic party in the nomination process. This way so they wouldn't have to leave the party to run for their seats again. Lee Nak-yeon (LNY) is their nominal leader.

LNY is the former prime minister under Moon Jae-in. Lee Jae-myung met with him last week to smooth over differences. LNY wouldn't play ball meaning "you need to step down as party leader." Other soobak were threatening to leave the party the morning of assassination if Lee Jae-myung didn't meet their demands i.e. step down. One LJM supporter characterized their position as an "ultimatum."

In the PPP conservative party, nominally the governing but minority party, a young leader, Lee Jun-seok aka Junstone, the former party leader who was instrumental in getting misogynist young males to vote for Yoon in the presidential election, ostensibly has split from the PPP and has his own party roster, trying to qualify for independent runs at National Assembly seats April 10. That's not a factor relating to the assassination attempt. The Yoon faction, and the party emergency committee chair Han Dong-hun run the party now. Yoon and Han have an intense hatred of Lee Jae-myung, and they are petty, spiteful, and vindictive as well. They have tried to put Lee in prison and have had him wrapped up in criminal litigation for years in an attempt to remove him from the scene. Lee had just led his party to pass a special investigation into the First Lady's corruption. Yoon of course, vetoed that. Their hostility toward Lee is palpable.

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 01.02.04) Han Dong-hun celebrating something with colleagues a few hours later.

This is all speculation but would be familiar to students of American assassinations. Primary is the legend of the lone nut assassin. You have to get that out there first. So the patsy has to get sheepdipped as they say, and associated with political and psychological symbolism to sell the lone nut theory. So the suspect still unnamed in the press in accordance with the custom although he was filmed committing the crime also has to be protrayed as a nut. So he was wearing a paper crown on his head, like a kindergarten student.

The crown has several symbolic connotations which go to either sheepdipping, misleading the public or they could be a genuine clue. The crown is also a parody and mockery of Lee, in a sardonic fashion. It said on the front, "I am Lee Jae-myung."

President Yoon, on two occasions in presidential campaign appearances had the Chinese character for king written on his palm in dark black ink and was ridiculed for it. So there is a suggestion of sarcasm in the appearance of the assassin to youtubers who are familiar with the so called "apple apology" once generated by Yoon and his wife in photographs on social media. On the other hand, Lee Nak-yeon had criticized LJM for turning the democratic party into a private "fan club" and "bullet proof vest" among other things. Oddly enough, there is a bizarre cult similar to the Unification Church or Moonies in South Korea, in which the cult leader leader is regarded as "king" or something like that. In addition, on the crown is a green or blue silhouette of a butterfly which is contended to be a symbol of the Sincheonji (new heaven and earth) Church. (The leader lives in what resembles a palace.) Now the tie is that Lee Nak-yeon is alleged to have a significant political connection to the church. Sincheonji rank and file work as campaign workers for conservative candidates typically (like the Unification Church has been doing in Japan until the Abe assassination). The association with the Abe assassination is almost automatic when you watch the video of the attempt on Lee's life, but there are key differences.

Some of the press have already planted the idea that the suspect is mentally ill, and therefore, should be dealt with humanely when sentenced, "if he apologizes." In this regard critics of the police or other sources of this idea point out, the calculated movements of the attacker before the attack clearly indicate a carefully planned premeditated attack. the nature of the wound inflicted, said to be one mm from the internal carotid ( as I interpret one public medical statement and other statements on this topic). One observer suggested that inflicting this sort of wound quickly required some training. The jugular vein was lacerated to an extent of 60 percent.

A third factor is the behavior of the Busan police. They provided inadequate protection, which by law, they claimed they weren't obliged to provide. There were some officers in Lee's vicinity at the time of the attack. I've read that there were 41 police total in the area at the time. The fired Chief of the Ulsan (?) Police was with Lee's group at the time of the attack. This senior officer is a Lee supporter. He formerly was the national association of police rep, who opposed Yoon's reorganization of the police affecting its political and institutional independence. Yoon's bureaucratic move, put the National Police Agency under his minister of public order and the interior, as it was in the dictatorships. According to an interview of the former president of the police association on OhMyTT News, he took charge of the immediate scene, he made immediate efforts to provide first aid, restore security, and order an ambulance. The assailant was immediately apprehended. The press briefings from Busan police released a minimum of information which is understandable, but said from the start that the assailant was a democratic party member, and that a conspiracy was unlikely.

A day passed and someone leaked video showing the attacker arriving at a motel 11.5 km from the scene of the attack the day before. It was a distinctive vehicle, a silver late model, high end Mercedes sedan. Oddly enough the same or identical car model was photographed at the scene of the attack. After the release, the police admitted that someone drove the suspect to the scene of the crime. Their assessment, apparently already arrived at was "nothing to see here" and conspiracy highly unlikely. This is within 2 days of the attack. How is this possible without a complete and impartial investigation, including evaluation of forensic evidence of all circumstances, relationships, business and employment history, communications, movements etc?

The suspect's small real estate office in Asan was searched, and it was revealed he hadn't paid his rent, or was in arrears for the past 6 months. There were also notices photographed by the press on the door from banks allegedly showing multiple loans in default. Unofficial sources also reported they saw a wanted ad or sign from his office wanting to purchase for a building with 100 one room rentals. Adding to the picture, on Dec. 13, the suspect was seen wearing the same silly crown at a democratic party meeting to discuss the adverse impact of "jeonse" defaults by real estate investors to their lessees and investors. All of this is from independent media sources.

Allegedly, the suspect just happened to meet the Mercedes driver, whom he allegedly didn't know, who was also a democratic party member, who agreed to drive him to the scene where Lee was viewing the site for a planned airport from the motel 11.5 km away. The suspect was also been photographed at a memorial ceremony for former president No Moo-yeon at a cemetery on Jan 1. He also allegedly visited Ulsan a city in the same region, for unknown reasons.

At an unrelated event, the same day, just a few hours after the assassination attemp, Han Dong-hun, the de facto party leader of the governing PPP party, was observed with a phalanx of police bodyguards around him. It was reported that 240 police are assigned just to protect him.

Lee would, if elected president in the future, make efforts to return South Korea to the Moon Jae-in course on foreign policy. He had a conference with the Chinese ambassador to South Korea at one point, in his capacity as opposition party leader that drew some criticism. Lee would maintain good relations with China, and keep a safe distance, and make no concessions to Japan on outstanding issues without some reciprocity from Japan. There is no way he would have gone along with the Camp David nonsense, or joined a tri-lateral Indo Pacific alliance directed at China. Given the association of religious extremists with the WACL, an ostensibly international organization like Sincheonji, the latter probably does have intelligence and political connections, as does the Unification Church, so that potentially could lead simply to South Korea's NIS or to western agencies.

It's early to speculate but I'm not accepting the lone nut theory at this point. Also, because the South Korean administration itself and its police and prosecutors are notoriously political and far from impartial, an independent investigation with a special prosecution team is necessary.

There are tit for tat artillery exercises going on in the west sea in an area near some of the South Korean islands off the North Korean coast. Hope no one gets hurt. That's been in the US newsfeeds so I don't really have much to add. If I were the North I would have avoided this kind of military activity so close to the campaign season. It's counter intuitive. Raising the military tension during campaign season in the South especially hurts North Korean security interests, and is more hazardous to peace, but DPRK's internal agenda may be generating this.

note-made some edits to the original post 1.8.24 for grammar, style, and clarity.

Lots of laughs

천애지아 天崖至睋~ 하늘 끝에 이르는 바람 ~ 장나라 ( Jang Na Ra )

Gaze from Heaven's Cliff: Wish Arising at the Edge of Heaven

The sky above, the whisper of wind painted with tears
Follow that beautiful light, there within fall asleep.

The place that bears all longing, in dim memory, that place
to which dreams, like wild flowers, disappear, heaven's flowers.

Sunset, sunset, bring down the heavens,
the dream path resounds calling.
Sunset, sunset, even the starlight cries out,

Yearning arises, walk the dream path

Above the sky, the whisper of wish drawn with tears
Follow that beautiful light, there within fall to sleep

The place that bears all longing within dim memory, that place
to which dreams, like wild flowers, disappear, heaven's flowers.

Sunset, sunset, bring down the heavens
The dream path resounds with ringing sound
Sunset, sunset, even the starlight cries out

Sunset, sunset, bring the sky down
The dream path resounds calling.
Sunset, sunset, even the starlight cries out

Longing arises, walk the path of dreams

Allegory- Admonish King Yoon Seok-yeol at "Risk of Death"

TV Chosun compares Yoon Seok-yeol to Cheonsangun, the worst king in the Chosun dynasty.

[TV Chosun] Unchanging Yeonsangun (Yoon Seok-yeol) and the 3 Ministers.

The suggestion here seems to be that the righteous three ministers with the moral and physical courage to give the king advice he doesn't want to hear are Cho-Joong-Dong, the three dominant conservative media giants in South Korea (Chosun Ilbo, Joongang Ilbo, and Donga Ilbo) which had remained uncritical of President Yoon until just recently. Until now criticisms of Yoon as tyrannical and incompetent, were only heard through independent media and opposition politicians now under attack. Does this signal the end for the Yoon Seok-yeol administration? Yoon has also turned on party colleagues and allies that made his presidency possible and now is running the party into the ground. Do the conservative media think their advice will sway Yoon? Doesn't look like it. So do they wish to absolve themselves of their own complicity by saying that Yoon and his cadre of opportunists in the so called People's Power Party (PPP) brought the prospective failure in the upcoming April 2024 general election upon themselves?

(Source- TV Chosun Anchor Briefing 신동욱 10.16.23) Evil of the Times, Article 10, "The people are like the waters, and the King like the ship that floats easily upon them; the ship can also capsize." Journal from the reign of Yeonsangun (1502). Another quote was "the cicada has a loud voice because it does not hear."

(Source= TV Chosun Anchor Briefing 신동욱 10.16.23) This is an old adage from Chinese classical history, "Admonish the king at the risk of death."

*Although the calculation did not change, the spirit of the three monks who were not afraid of death is conveyed in the Annals.

During the Spring and Autumn Dynasty, Shi Chu, the godfather of the Wei Dynasty, directly told the monarch Yonggong, “Throw away the treacherous Mi Zihe and appoint the loyalist Geo Baekyu.” When Yeong-gong did not listen, he died and said, “Put my body under the window.” Only then did King Yeong appoint Geobaekok and cast out Mijaha. This is a terrible remonstrance, ‘ ( the corpse's remonstrance 尸諫) ,’ which achieved its will with my corpse.*

*Quoted in-[TV조선] 바뀌지 않는 연산군(윤석열)과 3정승(비윤계) https://www.fmkorea.com/6289431276

Among his other grievous faults Yeonsangun as king presided over two purges of the literati, the scholarly nobles. This is analogous to Yoon's censorship camgaign against critics and independent news sources like MBC and KBS and their overseeing agency the Korean Communications Commission. The Justice Minister Hong Dong-hun functions as President Yoon's modern day "executioner" persecuting labor, dissent, political opponents, and media figures. I understand that the president of JTBC News, Son Seok-hee, a reknowned award winning journalist, retired recently. It wasn't too long ago, that prosecution investigators conducted a search of JTBC News offices (for reporting on misuse of prosecution expense account funds). What connection, if any, there exists between the two events is unknown. Perhaps Son is no longer up to the kind of tumultuous events he covered during the Park administration. MBC and even National Assembly members' offices have been ransacked by Yoon's prosecutors, no one is above his power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yeonsangun_of_Joseon

There are copious comparisons of Yoon to Yeonsangun since he took office. A google search in Korean revealed about 120,000 links. Of course many are social media posts, redundantly referring to the same sources. Among the top links, the first major political figure to make the comparison, that I found was democratic party National Assembly member and party executive committee member, Go Min-jung. Assembly member Go criticized President Yoon for sacking the Presidential Archives Director, Shim Seong-bo, who was appointed at the end of the Moon Jae-in administration, saying, “Does President Yoon Seok-yeol want to be remembered as Yeonsangun?” This story was reported by Chosun Ilbo February 3, 2023.*

*고민정 “尹, 연산군으로 기억되고 싶나” 대통령기록관장 직위해제 비판 https://www.chosun.com/politics/politics_general/2023/02/03/TRT37QOOJZFLFCTUFFJII6TNNU/

Along analogous tyrannical developments it was recently disclosed that the National Elections Committee allowed the National Intelligence Service access to its computer software programming for election counts, because it felt it was under some compulsion to do so for "security reasons." After the NIS inspection, the NEC Director at a National Assembly committee hearing revealed that his agency found upon checking their system, the NIS had left some its own software on NEC computers.*

*선관위 보안점검 뒤 '미삭제' 국정원 프로그램 있었다?
OhMyNews 10.13.23
https://www.ohmynews.com/NWS_Web/View/at_pg.aspx?CNTN_CD=A0002969128&CMPT_CD=P0001&utm_campaign=daum_news&utm_source=daum&utm_medium=daumnews

The Chairman of the South Korean National Election Commission, No Tae-ak, is now being investigated by public prosecutors for neglect of duties for failing to safeguard the election processes from North Korean hacking and interference.* There is no evidence of any security failures or potential failures. The Yoon administration fears impeachment and intends to interfere in election processes related to the general election for National Assembly seats next April, itself, particularly early voting which typically favors progressive voters. Just another public institution under attack by the right wing Yoon administration.

*검찰, '투·개표 보안 부실 의혹' 노태악 수사 착수, YTN 10.17; 임성호
https://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0103_202310171828349340

Both siderism in analysis of the Yoon administration.

(Source- 열린공감TV youtube, composite photo from Yeollin Gonggam TV) Pictured First Lady, Kim Gon-hee(left), Yoon Seok-yeol (center) and Kim's mother Choi Eun-soon (right)


South Koreans are dissatisfied with Yoon's pro-Japanese policies. Yoon reduced the budget for alzheirmer's patients, and also RandD. He's used millions for his wasteful move of the presidential office to the old MND building and the new presidential residence in Hannan dong. Yet, he now wants to use the Blue House whenever he wants. The added burden on police caused by the move contributed to the Itaewon disaster in which 159 young people died by being crushed in a crowd. Yoon's clique of prosecutors persecute critics of Yoon, his wife, and his mother in law. Yoon has always had a dictatorial personality. He is an admirer of the former dictator Chun Doo-hwan.

Prosecutors in Yoon's clique frame political opponents with false witnesss testimony and constant leaks of false accusations against the accused to Yoon's conservative media supporters who dutifully publish to defame the critics of authoritarian pro-Japanese rule. Known as press prosecution collusion (검언유착) it is directed against the political opposition and independent media. Yoon also oppresses labor unions, and is taking control of otherwise non-partisan government institutions and agencies by staffing them MB retreads and unqualified former prosecutors. Like most dictators, he's trying to rewrite history, to make Japan and South Korea's dictators the good guys. If he doesn't start another war with North Korea it will only be luck. Yoon and his new right supporters label all critics and opposition "anti-state enemies" and stooges of North Korean. According to Yoon human rights advocates fall into this category.

Above all, Yoon is incompetent. He's had no prior military, foreign policy, or political experience prior to his election to the South Korean presidency. He has no domestic program whatever and spends as much time overseas as possible. Almost all of his cabinet appointees were disapproved by the National Assembly. Unfortunately, that doesn't matter under South Korea's constitution, he appointed them anyway. Anyone, who wants to "both sider" the problem with South Korea's Yoon administration today, doesn't really understand Korean politics, history or Yoon. Does any South Korean president have a worse economic record than Yoon? Yoon's wife had a government minister move a planned expressway interchange closer to real estate her family owns. She and her mother have been implicated in multiple real estate fraud schemes. While people suffer under the bad economy, she purchases jewelry and clothing costing tens of thousands of dollars or more on Yoon's overseas junkets. As far as the Daejangdong scandal goes Yoon is the one who overlooked the Pusan Savings Bank scandal which provided the seed money for the Daejangdong development. So far, after two years, over three hundred warrants, and several ongoing investigations, hundreds of thousands of pages of evidence, there is no tangible proof of any wrongdoing by Lee Jae-myung, the democratic party leader. The scanty evidence against him is mostly from improperly induced perjured statements elicited by prosecutors, from people subject to prosecution themselves and under duress. Trying to pin Daejangdong corruption on Lee is a classic case of Yoon projection and conservative mainstream media misdirection to cover his own misdeeds. He has been disciplined twice for unethical conduct as a prosecutor (it took him nine tries to pass the bar exam). He is a heavy drinker known to drop three thousand dollars in a single night of partying. There is a lack of transparency for his offices' rather large office account expenditures. The claim is that receipts are either no longer available or if available cannot be released due to "security reasons." Get real.

Victor Cha recommends pre-emptive strike

The Quiet Warmonger: Here's what Victor Cha of @CSISKoreaChair called for before the Senate this week. The adoption of a pre-emptive clause by the trilateral US-Korea-Japan alliance would be exceedingly dangerous. Plus he wants ROK arms sent to Ukraine. https://t.co/rSAVCxMxPB pic.twitter.com/NYV1htgWSx

— Tim Shorrock (@TimothyS) October 6, 2023

CSIS Korea chair Victor Cha's prepared testimony is at this link, FWIW.

https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/6d1240b7-bfd7-859b-3fc5-ecd6d083540a/100423_Cha_Testimony.pdf

Tim cited Cha's proposed military interception of North Korean missile tests. This is a bad idea, that I had been waiting for some high profile "expert" to recommend. Declaring that the US will attack North Korean ICBM testing pre-emptively is a bluff that will be called. It will have no deterrent effect on North Korea. There are always zingers in these very biased assessments pushed by CSIS for their arms manufacturer and state sponsors. They've been cranking this stuff out on youtube. Two more Cha quotes that I just can't take seriously:

It is noteworthy that the administration has stated its interest in reengaging in dialogue with DPRK with no preconditions as to the results of such talks. This is a subtle but significant change that suggests greater flexibility.

The Biden administrations professed willingness to engage in "dialogue without preconditions" is meaningless boilerplate. The Biden administration has nothing substantial to offer in the way of diplomacy. But they're willing to listen to Kim surrender without preconditions. I'm not big on Cha's "saving face" argument either. This is in the same category as the establishment disapproval of Trump's leader to leader overtures with Kim, which according to the neocon critics, unfairly and unduly "rewarded Kim Jong-un" by elevating his status by having the president meet with him. This always was meaningless drivel.

To me this is the kind of argument people make when they don't want to address the substantive issues. When your negotiating approach fails, namely the US "all or nothing" humiliating approach delivered to Kim, by John Bolton at Hanoi, necessarily he's going to look elsewhere for support. His covid lockdown basically put DPRK foreign policy in deep freeze. That's over now. Before "fire and fury" the US had already bypassed China and Russia and thereafter pursued a new cold war policy of block politics. Where else would Kim go?

Cha's praise for Yoon's foreign policy is absurd. Yoon has no domestic support to speak of. He's a lame duck. Frankly he's a corrupt simple minded psychopath. Anyone who criticizes him is "an anti-state actor." His policy is turning South Korea into a security/surveillance/police state. He's got nothing else to offer. A military crisis is probably something he feels he could use to bolster his foundering administration.

There are some who argue that this new development in DPRK-Russia cooperation is a response to the Camp David summit. I do not believe this to be the case. Russia’s need for ammunition alone would have made this cooperation inevitable regardless of U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation

This is ridiculous.

I think any sort of attempt to destroy an upcoming ballistic missile test launch, either on the launch pad, or in flight by the US or South Korea, will result in military retaliation by North Korea. After which, it will be difficult to restrain Yoon, or the US from further escalation and the possible outbreak of war.

I've read that a satellite launch effort might be made by North Korea before Oct 26. Further ICBM testing could be expected in the future as well.

This US official apparently has some common sense.

Bonnie Jenkins, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, made the remarks, a day after Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies made the proposal at a congressional hearing.

Cha noted the need to consider a "declaratory" policy to signal the capability of destroying a North Korean missile headed towards Japan, Hawaii or the U.S. West Coast when it is on the launch pad or in other flight phases.

"I think I would just say that we have a very close relationship, strong discussions on the way in which we want to address North Korean threats and their intercontinental ballistic missiles and all the tests that they're doing," she said at a forum hosted by the Stimson Center.

Jenkins said she would not say a preemptive strike is "the way to go."

Senior U.S. official stresses 'strong' ties with S. Korea, Japan over N. Korean threats