Competing Chinese and Russian Commercial Interests in North Korea

Depicted in recent News Special Report graphic is a joint economic project of Russia, North Korea, and South Korea, planned to resume as a part of the three belt strategy that the South Korean and North Korean economic representatives are working on right now in North Korea. The trading routes are depicted in the graphic for dry bulk shipping. Russian resources can be moved by rail from the port of Hasan in Russia to Rason (Najin), North Korea, and then shipped to South Korean industrial cities as shown. The resumption of the project is dependent on the removal of sanctions. Moon emphasized in a presentation in Singapore that all economic development opportunities in North Korea are dependent on denuclearization. Rason is a special economic zone which the Russians and Chinese have invested in. Discussion of plans to expand operations may reflect the new emphasis on economic development policy presented in the North Korea media.

Coincidentally, there is a timely commentary posted at 38North.org, titled Putin, Trump and North Korea: The Road to Washington Leads Through Asia, by KENNETH B. DEKLEVA M.D, which addresses contemporary Russian interests in Korea:

"These include Russian political, economic, regional and long-term strategic interests, as well as its desire to play a constructive role (dovetailing with America’s interest) in the Korean peace and denuclearization processes. In the long-term, Russia’s emerging role has the potential to weaken America’s political and economic interests in Northeast Asia, while highlighting Russia’s presence as a counterweight to China’s influence."

https://www.38north.org/2018/07/kdekleva071218/

A July 13 documentary video from South Korean broadcasters (VJ 특공대) portrayed current economic activity in Dandong China, just across from Sinuiju, North Korea, the western belt crossing point for North Korean Chinese commerce. There is moderate tourist traffic in Dandong, as Chinese interest in North Korea increases, and as the Chinese government eases the restrictions on pedestrian and tourist traffic across the Dandong bridge for North Koreans. Trains from Pyongyang to Dandong run once a day, and are reportedly full. South Koreans can travel to Dandong via cruise ship from Inchon. South Korean tourism in China is on the rise after the tension over the US THAAD ABM deployment in South Korea was eased by President Xi. There is speculation in Dandong real estate prices with the prospect of greater commerce when sanctions are relieved. Prices for new apartments are running about 900 to 1000 dollars a square meter. Construction of apartment buildings is very active. Retail sales of North Korean folk medicine, alcohol, cigarettes, cosmetics and traditional women's garments are possible again as North Koreans take the goods across the border in suitcases and backpacks. One upscale North Korean neng myun (cold noodle) restaurant with traditional entertainment in the Chinese border city is doing a brisk business again. The rise in real estate prices is attributed to both the thaw in North South Korean relations, and Kim's summit with President Xi. The "new" Dandong Sinuiju bridge built at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars by China, apparently still remains dormant as the North Korean approaches are not constructed.

Kim Didn't Get "Everything he Wanted," at the Summit

When Kim Yong Chol was at the White House in early June, Trump told him that the US would consider an announcement to end the Korean conflict. This falls in the category of CVIG which is the term Pompeo came up with, complete verifiable irreversible guarantee (of North Korean security). This negotiating concept represented an acceptance of a reciprocity principle. Reciprocity was demonstrated, at least on a temporary basis, when the joint military exercises were suspended. When Pompeo was meeting with Chol in Pyongyang, in reaction to the tsunami of criticism of the summit in the US, about the summit and the exercise suspension, he blew off the proposal of an announcement to end the state of war and went strictly with his allegedly new formula FFVD. The latter is a superficial name change that failed to disguise the return to a unilateral ultimatum to denuclearize. This is the same hardline approach that almost derailed the summit before it happened. There won't be any denuclearization without dealing with the security guarantee issues for North Korea. Currently, the press and all other interested parties are to the right of Pompeo and Trump on this, so Pompeo retreated to the hardliner position which predictably failed.

The game being "played" in the current vernacular is not over. The sanctions are still in effect, and are having a crushing effect on the North's despotic government. The patronage system of the dictatorship has been impaired for some time now by the economic impact of the UN sanctions and the poor harvest last year, expected again this year. Soldiers in North Korea are literally starving. The propaganda and diplomacy of North Korea has been geared toward promises of economic improvement that need to be delivered, soon. Recent changes in North Korean military and civil leadership also suggest the need to consolidate control of the armed forces and the need to shift from the military leg to the economic leg of the "byung jin" policy.

The US can deal with Kim and continue on with this process or deal with some unknown generals in bunkers. Kim desperately needs the economic advances possible with denuclearization to achieve the economic improvements needed to bolster his current rule. It isn't like the military pressure is off North Korea either. The decapitation teams and the targeting and command and control resources necessary for a theater nuclear war are standing by in South Korea and Japan and ready to go on an order from Washington.

It's still the same dispute about how the negotiations will go forward. It's too early to call these negotiations a failure, but if they do fail, what's the alternative to negotiations?

Economic Development Plan for the Korean Peninsula

As an outcome of the summit at Panmunjum between President Moon Jae In, and Kim Jong Un, there are representatives from South Korea meeting with North Koreans this week and later throughout the month, to plan economic development of the peninsula focused around three economic belts to achieve economic integration goals for a single market. As the graphic above (from Channel A news this morning) shows there will be the Yellow Sea economic belt on the western side of the peninsula, and an East Sea economic belt in the east. The third belt is the region along the DMZ, referred to as a peace cooperative belt. The goal is to build a a North South economic community. Railways are the focus of the two coastal belts. The requirements to reconnect railways severed by the DMZ will be explored, and inspections will be undertaken to evaluate the work necessary to get the lines to the North and other Asian markets opened. Proposals for withdrawal of military forces and weapons from the Cooperative Peace Zone in the area of the current DMZ are related to the third east west belt between North and South.

Other aspects of the market planned for North Korea involve development of region on the East Sea from Wonsan to Sokcho as a resort area similar to Cheju island in South Korea. Further north in the eastern region, the area from Sinpo to Dancheon, rich in natural resources would be subject to joint industrial development focused on energy and natural resources. It is interesting to note in this regard that Sinpo is well known among military analysts for its naval base at which SLBMs are being developed.

In the western region, Sinuiju, the North Korean city on the Chinese border where a large part of cross border trade takes place, (near Dandong China), is planned to be developed as an international trading zone, "like Hong Kong." Further south, the Nampo region in North Korea would serve as a special North South cooperative zone for production of energy.

Withdrawal from the DMZ?

South Korean Ministry of Defense denies the story that South Korean military units deployed in the vicinity of the DMZ will withdraw ten kilometers from the Armistice line as a step in a four phase plan to demilitarize the area (and turn it into a "peace zone?)

Disappointing Results of Pompeo Follow up Meeting in Pyongyang

JTBC screenshot. Pompeo's Mission Impossible and returning "empty handed?" Discussion of ICBM engine test site and return of US servicemember remains postponed. FFVD rejected.


I was looking at YTN news this morning over at youtube after having read the English language media postmortems of the Pompeo visit, and while the visit was relatively unproductive, I think the signficance of the remarks from the North Korean foreign office have been exaggerated. The ministry said that the US approach was still CVID at the meeting, and was one sided and "gangster like." I saw that one other published English translation was rapacious. It seems to me that Choi Son Hui or Ri Yong Ho from the foreign ministry wrote this statement personally. It was probably Choi. This is her style. a "gangster mentality," (강도적인 비핵화 gangster like denuclearization; 강도적심리가 gangster pscyhology.) Earlier in the news coverage I had noticed that in the video of the conference room there was a sign that said "stuff only" over a door in the room. So I checked the Chinese translation at KCNA, where there can be no ambiguity, it is "gangster" in the Chinese translation as well rather than strength, intensity or force. Some of the language in the official announcement from the foreign ministry is very similar to Kim Gae Kwan's apologia for Choi Son Hui published on May 24, 2018, which suggests that demands for unilateral nuclear disarmament from the US are considered a red line for North Korea. ref: http://www.nkleadershipwatch.org/2018/05/25/kim-kye-gwan-issues-statement-on-us-dprk-summit/

In any event the YTN coverage reveals that the essential difference is still the same, the one bundle approach of the US, versus the step by step, reciprocal moves by both sides that the North Koreans want. In any event, the North should have taken a substantial step or steps after the US suspended military exercises. By unilaterally suspending the joint military exercises with South Korea, the US suggested that a tit for tat approach to building trust, and eliminating the nuclear threat could be managed. However, two things happened at the meeting in Pyongyang, Pompeo reverted to the CVID type approach, calling it FFVD, which is a distinction with only a nominal difference, and the North failed to reciprocate to the US South Korean suspension of military exercises, criticizing it as "reversible."

This was the North Korean offer: (this is their English translation of their own proposal at Cho Sun Choong Ang Tong Sin at the official North Korean KCNA web site):

"The DPRK side, during the talks, put forward the constructive proposals to seek a balanced implementation of all the provisions of the Joint Statement out of its firm willingness to remain faithful to the implementation of the spirit and agreed points of the DPRK-U.S. summit meeting and talks.

These include taking wide-ranging proactive steps of simultaneous actions in a respective manner such as realizing multilateral exchanges for improved relations between the DPRK and the U.S., making public a declaration on the end of war first on the occasion of the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, dismantling the test ground of high thrust engine to make a physical verification of the suspension of ICBM production as part of denuclearization steps and making an earliest start of the working-level talks for recovering POW/MIA remains."

The Exception Proves the Rule: Far Right Manifesto for War with North Korea

Channel A News Top Ten graphic: Mission Impossible- more difficult than Tom Cruise's mission

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/07/09/kim-jong-un-singapore-summit-north-korea-wins/https:/

The National Review opinion, Kim Wins in Singapore, is a far right manifesto for war with North Korea. It includes just about every criticism levied at Trump's so called surrender to Kim Jong Un at Singapore. The opinion is representative of many alleged "experts" in analysis of North Korea. Many are part of the conservative think tank establishment, the right wing establishment, former CIA officials, etc. However the article in the National Review emanating from the right wing American Enterprise Institute, Kim Wins in Singapore, written by Nicholas Eberstat, had to include the caveat below:

"In fairness, we should acknowledge that the Singapore summit may not be quite as awful for the American side as events to date suggest. It is possible, for example, that the U.S. secured meaningful deliverables that have not been publicly announced. But as my American Enterprise Institute colleague Dan Blumenthal has emphasized, the North Korean media would have to ready Kim’s subjects and elite for any concession or change in policy worthy of the name — and there is, as yet, no evidence of this. "

Actually the Chosun Daily online had an article last week that acknowledged that the North would have to come forward with some reciprocal concessions as a result of the US suspension of military exercises.

Additionally, the game being "played" in the current vernacular is not over. The sanctions are still in effect, and are having a crushing effect on the North's despotic government. The patronage system of the dictatorship has been impaired for several months by the economic impact of the sanctions and the poor harvest last year. Soldiers in North Korea are literally starving. The propaganda and diplomacy of North Korea has been geared toward promises of economic improvement that need to be delivered, soon. There are signs of instability in the current leadership as a result of this and the current policy changes ostensibly undertaken by Kim Jong Un. The issue being discussed in South Korean media is whether or not the alleged resistance in North Korean military circles is the pretext or excuse for delay in denuclearization or has some basis in fact. AEI "expert" Dan Blumenthal mentions the North Korean media do need to ready the subjects and elites to the new policy. Recent changes in North Korean military and civil leadership also suggest the need to consolidate control of the armed forces and the need to shift from the military leg to the economic leg of the "byung jin" policy.

The US can deal with Kim and continue on with this process or deal with some unknown generals in bunkers. Kim desperately needs the economic advances possible with denuclearization to achieve the economic improvements to justify his current rule. It isn't like the military pressure is off North Korea either. The decapitation teams and the targeting and command and control resources necessary for a theater nuclear war are standing by in South Korea and Japan and ready to go on an order from Washington. This was reported on A Channel in South Korea this week.

It's too early to call these negotiations a failure, but if they do fail, John Bolton and his ilk are standing by to unleash war in Asia. The National Review brings up the throw away issue of racist socialism in North Korea to add to its evil dimensions, but the fact is that racism based upon ethnic identity is endemic throughout Asia, as well as the US. Additionally, the concept of "min jok" (people, race, ethnicity) has always been an key element of nationalism, and is the fundamental flaw of many states today, particularly in Europe.

Moon Chung In, the unofficial adviser to the Blue House on North Korean affairs suggests that it is unlikely that Pompeo will return from his visit to Pyongyang without concessions from North Korea.

US Pressure Before Follow Up Negotiations with North Korea

Anticipated next steps for the two sides:
North - report nuclear warheads, report ICBMs, cease nuclear activities.

US- Establish liason office, Ease sanctions

I'm not sure how likely the latter is. The establishment of liason offices in an attempt to normalize relations is discussed in depth at 38North.org in a recent June 29 article.

Bolton is up to his tricks. His model for negotiations, which really aren't negotiations at all, is not the model the administration or rather, Pompeo and his people are following. Bolton described a timetable for North Korean performance which Pompeo specifically rejected. He's also expanding the scope of the negotiations by using the term WMD.

Trump said to NK, "take your time." Time is actually against Kim at this point. He's making economic promises domestically that need to be kept. In order to do that, he needs to advance the "denuclearization process" concretely, in order to get some sanctions relief. Without sanctions relief, he will be hurting politically. Official North Korean media are raising expectations of the regime, in terms of economic performance, that can't be met, while the sanctions are still in effect. It appears that Kim is trying to portray himself as an economic development leader if a not a reformer, this will be a difficult sell without sanctions relief. JTBC news reported yesterday that an anonymous (S.Korean) government source told them, that it was the government's assessment that the North would find it difficult to back away from a commitment to denuclearize at this point. A substantial schedule of North South joint economic planning events is underway.

This negotiating process is hanging in the balance right now.

While US Ambassador Sang Kim is in S.Korea now, probably getting ready to meet with working level negotiators from North Korea, Sen. Graham is issuing death threats against Kim Jong Un. (Arirang English news reported that Sang Kim met Choi Son Hee the North Korea rep for the nuclear talks at the working level in Panmunjeom July 1.)

A nuclear program decades in the making cannot change much in three weeks. Many experts agree, that North Korean nuclear armed ICBMs are not perfected in terms of reaching the US, and that the suspension of nuclear tests and missile tests was very timely.

Alarmist articles in the US mainstream press, implicitly or explicitly describing the summit as a failure are part of the framing of the expected meeting of Pompeo with North Korean negotiators to pressure Kim to make substantial concessions. That's giving the tone of these recent articles the best possible interpretation.

미국의 압박 American pressure in advance of the anticipated negotiations this week is how the South Korean media are describing this.