Sunday, March 5, 2023

Growing Tension on Korean Peninsula driven by Yoon's political vulnerability



Defense Secretary Austin's letter to the force addressed an "aggressive China" being a "generational threat," using the now typical Orwellian speak about a so called "rules based order." Meanwhile the US systematically salami slices prior agreements with China (the three communiques) and the Chinese redline over Taiwan. The generational threat image is interesting because it brings to mind not only the WWII phrase "the greatest generation" but also the generation skipping nature of US policy toward China. The US had to turn around its hostile policy to China to help extricate itself from its strategic defeat in Vietnam. Now somehow US elites imagine that something has changed in East Asia, that permits it to conduct itself in a colonial manner again, as it did during the early twentieth century, in concert with Japan and England. I see earlier "gunboat diplomacy" by the US and the same partners as one of the key roots of the Great Pacific War (WWII).

The NY Times had an article on a growing South Korean arms industry thus far not exporting to Ukraine.

They’re Exporting Billions in Arms. Just Not to Ukraine.
As traditional weapons suppliers like the U.S. face wartime production shortages, South Korea has stepped in to fill the gap, while trying not to provoke Moscow.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/05/world/asia/ukraine-south-korea-arms.html

What is interesting about NY Times moving its Far East HQ to Seoul is that is has paired up with Joongang Daily, a major conservative South Korean media giant. Lately, multiple South Korean independent investigative media have been reporting on how Joongang, Chosun Ilbo, and Donga Media, the MSM in South Korea, (the mainstay of prior dictatorships) dominate the news cycle in South Korea, with a view toward keeping labor suppressed, social welfare policies checked, and promoting (unpopular) "conservative" pro-Japanese elite perspectives. They cooperate with the legal-judicial officials and corporate elites to repress opposition. The Times had opposed Trump's diplomatic overtures to North Korea after the "fire and fury" crisis. Unfortunately, Trump lost his nerve, backed down from MIC pressure and allowed John Bolton to sabotage the negotiations.

This morning South Korea's state subsidized MBC network ran a seven plus hour long live broadcast feed on youtube covering the escalating military crisis on the Korean peninsula. No commercials all military coverage, with undiplomatic threats exchanged back and forth between North Korea, and South Korea and the US. I think one thing that goes generally unrecognized is that crises of this nature on the Korean peninsula and between mainland China and Taiwan are historically related. It's really hard to predict where a potential war will break out first, across the Taiwan straits or on the Korean Peninsula. Superior US naval power had prevented both fronts from breaking out at the same time during the Korean conflict.

It's ironic that US official denials that the US military strategy in Korea calls for "de-capitation of North Korean command leadership" are repeatedly contradicted in the MBC broadcast which openly refer to the Special Forces operations in South Korea, as taking out North Korea's command headquarters.

(Source- MBC live news, youtube, 3.5) The caption reads... Attack on North Korean command center exercise...unprecedented publication.

The broadcast referred to the various US-ROK joint military exercises to take place this month as "the largest in five years," including "strategic assets" to signal US resolve to respond with nuclear weapons. It also showed South Korean military representatives on board a US SLBN in the US in an unprecedented visit.

All this has been an effort to distract from and compensate for, Yoon's political weaknesses, including his proven lies during his presidential campaign, his quisling status vis a vis Japan, the first lady's family corruption, the pervasive corruption of South Korean MSM, and Yoon's consistent use of judicial administration and prosecutors to persecute political opposition. In fact, it's becoming difficult to distinguish the Yoon administration from prior dictatorships in South Korea.

Kim Yo-jong, dictator Kim Jong-un's sister was quoted as saying that further continuation of provocative US ROK joint military exercises in Korea, will be viewed as a "declaration of war." I guess this is bluster, until Kim Jong-un says it himself. The latest North Korean missile launches were a two shot salvo of 600mm rocket artillery. Interestingly, the graphic MBC used showed how the respective flight tracks of two launches coincidentally showed profiles consistent with attacks on US Air Force bases in South Korea, Kunsan and Cheongju.

(Source- MBC live news, youtube, 3.5)

It's difficult to tell if this is actual video from Friday's combined air exercise over South Korean airspace, with B-1b's, South Korean F-35s and US F-16s or file footage from last year.

(Source- MBC live news, youtube, 3.5)

I scanned videos from a few South Korean independent media sources to try to determine the size of Saturday's Candlelight Movement demonstration in Seoul. I understand the demo included passing by the Japanese embassy. It was difficult to determine the size of the demo, it appeared to be smaller than earlier demonstrations, but it probably was in the tens of thousands. I suspect that threats of national security investigations against organizers has had an impact. I never see any reports of these demonstrations in South Korean or US mainstream media.


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