Does Kishida selection by LDP indicate future policy changes?

The policy of the dominant right wing factions in the LDP is already clear. They want a new constitution to get rid of restrictions on their armed forces, they are anti-China, and they want to build up their conventional forces. Their target is to spend 2 percent of Japan's GDP on national defense. Kishida said he favors moving the size the Japanese military budget toward 2 percent of GDP. The difference between him and the far right LDP leaders is that he is against nuclear weapons.

If anyone has inveigled or supported US anti-China policies, it is Japan's conservative elites. There is no uncertainty in the LDP largest cliques about what course they would take. As Suga's administration went on the rocks, under the pressures of the epidemic and the related unpopularity of the Olympics, Kishi and Takaichi made overtures of national security commitments to Taiwan and Vietnam. Previously Suga elicited an unwise commitment from Presdent Biden to defend, of all places. the uninhabited rocks of Senkaku (Diaoyutai Islands) which are subject to a territorial dispute with China. Taro Aso and Sanae Takaichi have said Japan needs nuclear weapons. Takaichi and Kishi (Abe's brother) are both far right. Kishida ranked third in popular polls before he was selected by the LDP factions. Kono, and Takaichi both polled ahead of him. Party support for Kono, Takaichi, and Kishida, all hovered around the 30 percent mark, before whatever political agreements were bartered to reach the Kishida outcome.

The LDP right also seeks emergency powers authorization for a “national emergency” that can be equated with the Nazi Enabling Act. It is not so much that Japan is being directed or “strung along” in the wrong direction by the US or being neglected by the US as some international experts allege. It is in fact, a self reinforcing anti-China alliance in which the US (and the UK and Australia) encourage the worst far right inclinations of the LDP leadership and Japan does its utmost to encourage the most militaristic approach possible by the US. Japan orchestrated the 2016 UNCLOS/ITLOS decision underpinning the west's South China Sea policy. The purpose was to extend the front of confrontation with China away from the East China Sea to spread out the Chinese national security problem.

If one wants to confirm the future direction of Japanese foreign policy, see who ends up in the cabinet. Anticipating a change of Japanese foriegn policy in a moderate direction is wishful thinking. That foreign policy is moving and will continue to move to the right. It is also likely that the LDP will run through a series of prime ministers during the next few years.

So now we know: Japan's next PM Kishida fills ruling party key posts with Abe allies KYODO NEWS - 7 hours ago - 22:42 | All, Japan https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/09/a3896fa3b57f-new-ldp-chief-kishida-eyes-naming-key-faction-members-to-exec-posts.html