Recent South Korean Presidential Campaign Polling results

(Source- 알리미 황희두 7.3 youtube) 윤석열 지지율 폭락!! etc. Yoon Seok-yeol's support suddenly drops!

This poll was taken after Yoon's June 29 announcement which I described briefly in an earlier post. It is not clear if this survey was finished before the conviction of Yoon's mother-in-law for medical fraud on July 2. The first bar graph shows that Lee Jae-myung, the leading democratic party candidate, has taken an 8 point lead over Yoon Seok-yeol, the leading conservative candidate in a head to head survey. The second graph above shows the results in a theoretical 3 way contest with Yoon running an independent candidacy outside the main conservative party (the so called People's Power Party). In this hypothetical three way contest a nominal PPP candidate would take 9.5 percent of votes reducing Yoon's support to 29.8 percent. Obviously there are all the caveats concerning polls, margins of error, and making inferences so early in the campaign season.

( Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 7.3 youtube) '리서치뷰'의 충격 여론조사 발표!! etc. Research View shocking public opinion survey revealed...

A similar poll examination of a hypothetical three way race among conservative Yoon, and the two leading democratic party candidates is shown above. This puts Lee Jae-myung, the leading democratic candidate for president in a dead heat against Yoon Seok-yeol, with spoiler Lee Nak yeon in a distant third place at 9.5 percent. Lee Nak yeon's campaign is in distress since he recommended that former conservative presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak, both currently in prison for corruption be pardoned for their crimes. His support plummeted precipitously after that.

( Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 7.3 youtube)

Lee Nak-yeon appeared with other democratic candidate hopefuls meeting the public interview session on national television yesterday. Lee Nak-yeon and the other minor candidates for president in the democratic party spent their time nitpicking at the leading candidate Lee Jae-myung, the current governor of Gyeonggido, a large province surrounding Seoul. Lee "JM" is somewhat progressive with a proposal for universal basic income and a strong management style regarding economic challenges facing his province and the country. With the exception of the former Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae, the other democratic candidates don't present strong policy initiatives consistent with the current Moon administration's approach.

Alternatively, Lee Nak-yeon as shown by the graphic was distinguished by the poor decision to shoot himself in the foot by criticizing the Moon administration's appointment of Cho Guk as Justice Minister, which has been a debacle, since the indictment and arrest of his wife, and the related indictment of himself, which were allegedly ordered by Yoon personally, the former Prosecutor General. Many democratic party rank and file members regard the Cho Guk indictments and trials as a politically motivated witch hunt, because Cho was the point man for the long standing democratic party desire to reform the administration of justice in South Korea.

Lee Nak-yeon claimed in the televised interview, that he as party representative prime minister (edit) advised the Moon administration two days before Cho Guk's appointment that he was against it. This public admission by Lee Nak-yeon is sure to be viewed very unfavorably by many democrats and will probably reduce his support further. Cho Guk was forced to resign a little more than a month into his appointment by the political uproar concerning the alleged corruption of his wife and himself. He was portrayed, by the opposition party and the conservative press, to be hypocrite as a reform minded politician. It also needs to be observed that Cho Guk would no doubt be a leading presidential candidate today but for these events. He and his spouse, who was sentenced to four years imprisonment in a trial of dubious fairness, are still embroiled in criminal litigation. His wife is in prison pending the results of her trial on review.Cho Guk's recent memoir of his experience being run out of office and of the politically motivated persecution of his family is currently a best seller in South Korea.

Cho's successor as justice minister, Chu Mi-ae, appears to have orchestrated a solid personnel strategy of dismantling Yoon Seok-yeol's politically oriented machine inside the prosecution offices nationally. Yoon has been tainted with a second disciplinary committee decision finding he breached his professional duties as prosecutor while in office. This measure was directed by Chu Mi-ae and unfortunately squelched (wrongly as it turns out) by an administrative review court. Recently, the Constitutional Court rejected Yoon's appeal of the decision by the disciplinary committee, but he had already left the Prosecutor General position to run for president. Chu Mi-ae is regarded as having turned in a consistent and principle driven performance at the telelvised public interview, having maintained her commitment to carry out the necessary political reforms to save the South Korean democracy from corruption and authoritarian practices. Ironically, Yoon claimed these were his purposes in declaring himself a presidential candidate on June 29, accusing the democratic administration of being a threat to democracy and a dictatorship in ridiculous hyperbole projecting his own authoritarian characteristics onto the democratic administration. Yoon's drive to become President of the Korean Republic has the appearance of a desperate effort to stop the criminal investigations of his family and himself.