Monday, June 15, 2020

Cat and Mouse Games over Taiwan?

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) Flight path of USAF C-40 over Taiwan, June 9.

According to South Korean defense analyst Shin In-kyun, a U.S. Air Force C-40A, (737-700C) flew from Kadena AFB to the west coast of Taiwan in an unprecedented mission profile since the break off of official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Shin's youtube presentation on this was entitled Chinese communist forces whine at first US-Taiwan combined forces exercise. While flying in the Taiwan straits, a Chinese Su-30 fighter from a PRC airbase approached and entered "ROC airspace" which Shin defined as being the midline in Straits. Technically, the midline is not a territorial limit but the Taipai Flight Information Region (FIR) border with the Shanghai FIR. The USAF C-40 appears to have been flying on an established airway within the Taipai FIR, which actually, in large part, lies within Taiwan's territory. Shin suggests that the C-40 was on a coordinated mission with the ROC Air Force, and speculates that the two F-16Vs sent to intercept the PRC Su-30 were "linked" to an integrated air defense with the US Pacific Command. It is probably wise for US aircraft to stay within the established airspace of the Taipai FIR well on the Taiwan side for safety reasons.

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) Graphic representation of encounter between PLAAF Su-30 Flanker and ROC F-16s over the Taiwan Straits. Xiamen Airport in Fujian province, shown in the insert, is contended to be the base of the Su-30.

According to Shin's typical hyperbolic style, the Chinese aircraft was the transgressor. As Shin described it, upon the encounter with the ROC F-16s, the single Flanker turned tail implying inferiority on the part of the pilot and his aircraft. A Chinese media report cited by Shin, Kwangyang Global Times, (6.10) reflected Chinese dissatisfaction with continued US military-ROC promotion of Taiwanese "separatism," and styled the Su-30's approach toward Taiwan as a warning that China's PLA forces stands firm to deal with any military challenge from Taiwan.

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) Depiction of entire flight path of the USAF C-40, June 9. Kadena to Guam, via Southeast Asia, said to be an eleven hour route.

According to the Taiwan Defense Headquarters, the Su-30 repeatedly entered Taiwan's airspace to the southwest after crossing the midline. After being giving the appropriate warnings, the Air Force directed fighters already in the vicinity on patrol to take appropriate measures against the intruding aircraft. The Su-30 departed. According to the ROC headquarters the Taiwanese fighters responded positively and safely.

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) F-16 v. Su-30 intercept?

The whole episode as described by Shin is overblown except to the extent that reports of ROC air defense integration with US forces are viewed as a provocation by the China. Integration of ROC military forces with US military commands is likely to be viewed as a threat by China to its core interests. The complex and overlapping FIRs of Shanghai and Taipei seem like a natural environment for misunderstandings and mishaps that could very well lead to unnecessary war involving the US. Shin seems to relish such a prospect.




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