Sunday, June 28, 2020

Thoughts on Japanese objections to addition of South Korea to G-7

Saw this in the English web version of Kyodo News today:

Japan has conveyed to the United States its objection to President Donald Trump's idea of adding South Korea to the Group of Seven summit, saying Seoul is not in lockstep with G-7 members on China and North Korean issues, diplomatic sources said Saturday.

Japan conveys objection to Trump's plan to add South Korea to G-7
KYODO NEWS - 6.28.2020
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/06/f4cef06fe71f-japan-conveys-objection-to-trumps-plan-to-add-s-korea-to-g-7.html

Abe's popularity is dropping in Japan as the country is suffering from the world wide impact of the pandemic. But Japanese suppliers to S.Korea's semiconductor industry are also suffering as Japan shot itself in the foot by taking S.Korea off its so called "white list" of preferred trading partners. After taking measures to reassure Japan that there were no security risks in supplying those raw materials, the Japanese government has not responded, and South Korea has renewed its lawsuit against Japan at the WTO for unfair trade practices. Japan has been unresponsive on trade issues, because the actions were taken as retaliation against Seoul for court decisions in private lawsuits against Japanese corporations for the exploitation of Korean workers during WWII as slave labor.

The US has said it is neutral in that "trade" dispute and it is for Japan and S.Korea to resolve between themselves. Japanese producers of semiconductor raw materials have probably permanently lost a substantial percentage of the S.Korean semiconductor manufacturing market as S.Korea has developed alternative sources of materials. In addition, the dispute aggravated the old resentments of Japanese colonial exploitation of Korea and resulted in a boycott of Japanese goods by South Korean consumers which hurt Japanese automakers and beer exporters in particular, among others. S.Korean tourism of Japan had already fallen off by about 40 percent before the pandemic. Japanese attempts to coerce South Korea are counterproductive and cannot succeed unless South Korea returns to its prior status as an authoritarian government that can force the pro-Japanese outlook on an unreceptive public.

The Japanese framing of the G-7 membership in terms of a block of countries opposed to China is likely to receive a warm welcome among the usual interests aligned against China, but not so much in South Korea, except among the discredited right wing. The ultra conservative Mirae Tonghap Dang, is still in the process of free fall in South Korea, after its farcical and extremist actions running up to its significant losses in the April 15 elections. Ironically, the abbreviated term for the party Mi Tong Dang is appropriate as the conservatives are totally aligned with US policy without reservation, unlike its more embarrassing historical relationship to Japan. A new US deputy secretary of state, Keith Krach, recently made the mistake of characterizing the rapproachement between China and Moon Jae-in, after the disastrous move of installing THAAD at one location in South Korea, as being the result of US steadfast support for the ROK-US alliance.* This is preposterous. The result was obtained by Moon Jae-in assuring the Chinese there would be no further installations of THAAD missile batteries on the peninsula, that South Korea would not integrate its missile defense capabilities with the US, and that it would not join the US and Japan, in an alliance against China. This same under secretary said that South Korean participation in a multinational economic arrangement Economic Prosperity Network which is aimed at disrupting Chinese based supply lines, would not foreclose their trade relations with China. Does anyone see a credibility problem here?

* VOA 뉴스] “한국은 ‘중국 보복’ 대표적 피해국” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbNzlJhF_YM

There has been a lot of discussion on VOA Korea and elsewhere in the US East Asia policy echo chamber about the purported benefits of having the so called "working group" dominate South Korean policy initiatives toward North Korea. The working group is viewed warily by the South Korean administration. It is viewed, correctly one might add, as a semi-colonial vestige, akin to the Japanese protectorate, attempting to dominate and thwart South Korean initiatives. One might consider the oppressive nature of the "working group" on South Korea as akin to an "I can't breathe" problem. Pompeo and Biegun prefer to use the "no daylight" metaphor, rather than no air. On a daily basis, US Asian policy "experts," advise South Korea to join the "strategic alliance" with Japan, the US and others in the Indo-Pacific aimed at China. Why should they? This isn't in South Korean interests, nor is it in keeping with Korean policy historically. As Jeong Se-hyun, the former South Korean Unification Minister has pointed out, the US establishment in the Defense Department and war industries, have no interest at all in a negotiated agreement with North Korea or they risk losing their lucrative sinecures, bases and markets in Japan and South Korea. Their view is that the South Korean and North Korea interest in a step by step approach to denuclearization, an end to the Korean conflict, and normalization of relations, reflects an essentially an unrealistic and "naive" perspective of what is possible on the peninsula. But the US and Japanese approaches represent the legacy of the nineteeth and early twentieth century policies of overtly imperialist states, ,such as, one may dare to say if they knew, the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and Japan. Allowing Korea some breathing space in terms of sovereignty and national autonomy is just not one of the concerns of the US, UK, France and Japan, and historically, despite protests and arguments to the contrary, never has been.

Today on VOA's Washington Talk show, Defense expert Bruce Bennett from Rand, appeared to be gleeful that it appears there isn't enough to eat in Pyongyang. He also expressed the notion that it was North Korea that wasn't adhering to the principles agreed to at Singapore, rather than the US. In terms of maximum pressure, the US consistently adheres to the hostile all or nothing "Libyan model," lauded by John Bolton. Any easing of sanctions as a trust building measure in a step by step approach to negotiations, as recommended by South Korea, was described absurdly in a recent piece by Victor Cha, as "extremism." So it's not the US hardline maximum pressure "one bundle- all or nothiong," approach which even the South Korean administration finds unworkable that is extreme, it is the desire to engage in the give and take of reciprocal trust building measures which allegedly is a threat to US national security. This is a hostile approach which seeks capitulation rather than negotiation.

Monday, June 15, 2020

Cat and Mouse Games over Taiwan?

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) Flight path of USAF C-40 over Taiwan, June 9.

According to South Korean defense analyst Shin In-kyun, a U.S. Air Force C-40A, (737-700C) flew from Kadena AFB to the west coast of Taiwan in an unprecedented mission profile since the break off of official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Shin's youtube presentation on this was entitled Chinese communist forces whine at first US-Taiwan combined forces exercise. While flying in the Taiwan straits, a Chinese Su-30 fighter from a PRC airbase approached and entered "ROC airspace" which Shin defined as being the midline in Straits. Technically, the midline is not a territorial limit but the Taipai Flight Information Region (FIR) border with the Shanghai FIR. The USAF C-40 appears to have been flying on an established airway within the Taipai FIR, which actually, in large part, lies within Taiwan's territory. Shin suggests that the C-40 was on a coordinated mission with the ROC Air Force, and speculates that the two F-16Vs sent to intercept the PRC Su-30 were "linked" to an integrated air defense with the US Pacific Command. It is probably wise for US aircraft to stay within the established airspace of the Taipai FIR well on the Taiwan side for safety reasons.

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) Graphic representation of encounter between PLAAF Su-30 Flanker and ROC F-16s over the Taiwan Straits. Xiamen Airport in Fujian province, shown in the insert, is contended to be the base of the Su-30.

According to Shin's typical hyperbolic style, the Chinese aircraft was the transgressor. As Shin described it, upon the encounter with the ROC F-16s, the single Flanker turned tail implying inferiority on the part of the pilot and his aircraft. A Chinese media report cited by Shin, Kwangyang Global Times, (6.10) reflected Chinese dissatisfaction with continued US military-ROC promotion of Taiwanese "separatism," and styled the Su-30's approach toward Taiwan as a warning that China's PLA forces stands firm to deal with any military challenge from Taiwan.

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) Depiction of entire flight path of the USAF C-40, June 9. Kadena to Guam, via Southeast Asia, said to be an eleven hour route.

According to the Taiwan Defense Headquarters, the Su-30 repeatedly entered Taiwan's airspace to the southwest after crossing the midline. After being giving the appropriate warnings, the Air Force directed fighters already in the vicinity on patrol to take appropriate measures against the intruding aircraft. The Su-30 departed. According to the ROC headquarters the Taiwanese fighters responded positively and safely.

(Source- Shin In-kyun, Daily Defense 6.13) F-16 v. Su-30 intercept?

The whole episode as described by Shin is overblown except to the extent that reports of ROC air defense integration with US forces are viewed as a provocation by the China. Integration of ROC military forces with US military commands is likely to be viewed as a threat by China to its core interests. The complex and overlapping FIRs of Shanghai and Taipei seem like a natural environment for misunderstandings and mishaps that could very well lead to unnecessary war involving the US. Shin seems to relish such a prospect.